攻击机作战效能评估的顶层数学模型

讨论了研究攻击机作战效能时所需要解决的基本问题,给出了描述战区云层分布规律,地形分布规律及侧向参数分布规律的数学模型,研究了机载空对地武器可攻击区,攻击机首攻概率及最大发现目标概率的确定方法,建立了在目标区存在主空系统时计算攻击机攻击效能指标的数学模型。     

从探测概率的角度评价飞机的隐身性能

采用雷达散射截面(RCS)均值来衡量飞机的隐身性能并不能给出足够充分的信息,从信号检测概率的角度来衡量飞机的可探测性可以提供更完整的信息。本文从探测概率的角度详细分析了4种典型隐身飞机RCS起伏数据与虚警概率、探测概率、探测距离、信噪比(SNR)等参数间的关系,并给出了完整的推导过程,采用此方法可以对任意飞机目标在给定雷达参数下的可探测性进行准确计算。一般在雷达性能评估中需要用到RCS起伏模型,本文对飞机目标回波信号进行检测分析时采用数值计算方法,信号的概率密度函数(PDF)直接来源于原始回波起伏信号,避免了模型拟合带来的回波特性失真,且不会产生大的计算误差。通过对比分析计算结果发现:单脉冲检测下回波信号均值中值比越大,回波取值范围越小,则信号的检测概率越小,其中均值中值比一般相差3倍以上时可以得到明显不同的检测概率;在快起伏假设下,非相参积累检测的积累脉冲数Nin即便较小,也能得到较大的信噪比增益,此增益可能大于Nin。     

飞行器对下视PD雷达隐身性能计算方法

通过研究杂波频谱密度与等多普勒线对应角度的关系，推导了目标信号落在旁瓣杂波频谱不同位置时临界散射截面的算法．在无需知道ＰＤ雷达脉冲积累数的情况下，得到了ＰＤ雷达载机与目标飞机以任意姿态遭遇时、对应于任何发现概率的临界散射截面的计算方法．经分析算例表明，如果战斗机或攻击机既具有超音速巡航能力又采用了隐身技术，将对敌方的下视警戒系统构成威胁．     

中远距空空导弹导引头系统仿真及误差分析

针对中远距空空作战,建立了中远距空空导弹的飞行仿真模型,给出了导弹攻击目标的全过程,并给出了攻击结果,即脱靶量和目标杀伤概率的计算方法。在分析末制导阶段导弹雷达工作过程的基础上,分析了导引头误差对测量目标信息及导弹飞行过程和攻击结果的影响。最后,使用Visual Studio 2010和OpenGL进行了空空导弹的全过程飞行仿真,验证了模型的正确性和有效性。     

目标指示精度对跟踪雷达截获概率的影响

在分析压制干扰对目标指示精度影响的基础上,研究了目标指示精度对跟踪雷达截获目标概率的影响,将跟踪雷达截获目标的过程分为落入目标探测区域及发现目标两个过程,建立了相应的评价指标与模型,对模型进行了在不同的干扰及抗干扰条件下进行了仿真验证。     

隐身飞机在大仰角时的生存力评估

介绍了生存力基本概念;给出了飞机发现概率的计算;在缺少某些雷达参数时,所提出的发现概率计算方法仍然适用。讨论了几种减缩RCS的实际可行的方法,并就隐身设计给出了指导性的意见。     

攻击机编队的对地攻击作战效能分析

以美国工业界武器系统效能咨询委员会(WSEIAC)提出的模型为基本框架,分析了攻击机作战效能性能指标,建立了攻击机编队攻击地面目标的战场想定,从实战角度提出了攻击机对地攻击的WSEIAC模型及模型参数的确定方法,给出了效能评估的基本过程并进行了应用实例分析,为对地攻击飞机武器系统作战效能分析与综合打下了基础。     

美式电子篱笆对空间目标检测概率的计算

为了检验美式电子篱笆对空间目标的探测能力,本文以电子篱笆系统对空间目标的检测概率作为研究对象,结合空间目标运行仿真和雷达探测仿真两个领域,通过空间目标轨道运动、雷达接收信噪比和雷达检测概率计算等数学模型计算此系统对穿越的空间目标的检测概率,从检测概率的角度给出了电子篱笆的性能评估。然而检测概率并不等同于捕获概率,所以进一步的研究工作可在对有用信号提取成功的概率方面开展。     

攻击机对海作战目标分配研究

针对攻击机对海作战时攻击资源分配问题,建立了攻击机编队对敌舰艇编队防空火力进行突防的模型,得到了舰艇编队中每一个目标在不同攻击强度下被毁伤的期望,利用动态规划方法确定了在毁伤期望最大情况下攻击机对舰艇的目标分配策略。     

航迹规划中反舰巡航导弹的雷达突防能力

在导弹航迹规划中，需要计算导弹突防过程中被雷达发现的概率。为此，在雷达方程中引入雷达系统特征常数以简化雷达方程，从探测概率与信噪比的关系出发，通过一系列的推导并考虑杂波的影响得出探测概率与目标距离的关系，提出在航迹规划中用横距探测概率来表征反舰巡航导弹的雷达突防能力。算例计算结果较为真实，表明该方法有一定应用价值。     

对地靶射击时飞行安全问题研究

针对目前估算式计算出的退出地靶射击时损失高度比实际小的问题，提出了退出地靶射击损失高度可分三阶段的估算方法，具体计算分析了延迟时间、飞行速度、俯仰角、过载等变化对退出地靶射击损失高度的影响程度，指出俯仰角绝对值大、射击距离近、贪恋观看弹着点、退出时机晚、拉起过载小和拉杆粗猛等是影响地靶射击训练安全的重要因素，明确了退出地靶射击过程正确的驾驶方法，强调了靶场指挥员的重要作用，对提高对靶射击成绩，尤其是保证对地靶射击训练安全有着积极的意义。     

Counterweapon Aiming for Defense of a Moving Target

Previous correspondence [1, 2] considered the problem of defending moving target by means of a counterweapon launched from the target to intercept the attacker, deriving relations between attacker-target ranges at counterweapon launch and at intercept of the attacker, and the speed capabilities of the counterweapon. The present correspondence derives the location of the intercept point in target-centered coordinates (the counterweapon aimpoint), analyzes the complicated behavior of range and bearing settings with attack geometry, and formulates the relations for determining whether any given attack can be countered under restrictions on speed or angle at which the counterweapon may be fired. Exhaustive analysis is not attempted. A simplified treatment portrays kinematic conditions which must exist if the target is to counter the attack before the target is impacted by the attacking vehicle, through the use of examples.     

歼击轰炸机对地面固定目标投弹误差分析

与一般轰炸机直接目视瞄准轰炸不同,歼击轰炸机采用连续计算投放点(CCRP)的间接轰炸方式,其轰炸精度受机载传感器测量载机和目标位置及运动参数的精度影响。文中针对该机种对地面或海面固定目标的轰炸,从理论上分别对各载机运动及位置参数引起的投弹误差进行了定量分析,并得出了分析结论。     

综合火力/飞行控制系统轰炸模态的设计

在无人驾驶状态下,对大机动转弯状态下空地轰炸模态的基本框架的实现技术进行了研究,导出了该模态的综合火力/飞行系统的火控解算方程,提出了火/飞耦合器的设计方法,并对飞控系统进行了设计,最终给出的无人驾驶机动轰炸模态综合火力/飞行系统数字仿真验证表明提出的设计技术是可行的,明显地提高了攻击精度。     

Guidance laws for attacking defended target

In this paper, two new guidance laws based on differential game theory are proposed and investigated for the attacker in an attacker-defender-target scenario.The conditions for the attacker winning the game are analyzed when the target and defender using the differential game guidance law based on the linear model.The core ideas underlying the two guidance laws are the attacker evading to a critical safe boundary from the defender, and then maintaining a critical miss distance.The guidance law more appropriate for the attacker to win the game differs according to the initial parameters.Unlike other guidance laws, when using the derived guidance laws there is no need to know the target and the defender's control efforts.The results of numerical simulations show that the attacker can evade the defender and hit the target successfully by using the proposed derived guidance laws.     

基于控制变量参数化的主动反拦截突防最优控制计算方法

针对由于敌防空系统防御能力不断提高所带来的进攻导弹突防难题,提出主动反拦截突防(IAIP)的概念,以弥补传统机动突防仅考虑进攻导弹的逃逸而忽略其攻击任务的缺陷。根据IAIP制导的内涵,在综合考虑目标的机动性能、拦截导弹末段的拦截特性及进攻导弹的控制系统性能的基础上,建立进攻导弹-目标-拦截导弹的三体运动模型。将突防制导指令的设计等效为最优控制的求解,其中突防指令为实现燃料最省目标的最优解,进攻导弹的过载、拦截导弹的脱靶量、进攻导弹的攻击角、打击精度和突防后的视线角,分别为控制约束、路径约束和末端约束。借鉴控制变量参数化(CVP)方法将最优控制问题转化为非线性数学规划问题,并将路径约束离散化后采用序列二次规划(SQP)算法得到突防时机给定条件下制导指令的数值解。提出基于CVP的混合遗传算法(CVP-GA),用于求解最优突防时机及制导指令。仿真结果显示,采用IAIP最优控制算法的进攻导弹在成功突防后的打击精度仍可满足任务要求,且其燃料消耗相对于传统串联式突防方法降低了23.7%,验证了该方法的有效性及优越性。     

Security intrusion process: an empirical model

This paper describes a security model developed from empirical data collected from a realistic intrusion experiment in which a number of undergraduate students were invited to attack a distributed computer system. Relevant data, with respect to their intrusion activities, were recorded continuously. We have worked out a hypothesis on typical attacker behavior based on experiences from this and other similar experiments. The hypothesis suggests that the attacking process can be split into three phases: the learning phase, the standard attack phase and the innovative attack phase. The probability for successful attacks during the learning phase is expected to be small and, if a breach occurs, it is rather a result of pure luck than deliberate action. During the standard attack phase, this probability is considerably higher, whereas it decreases again in the innovative attack phase. The collected data indicates that the breaches during the standard attack phase are statistically equivalent. Furthermore, the times between breaches seem to be exponentially distributed, which means that traditional methods for reliability modelling of component failures may be applicable     

水下声呐探测系统信息支持下的直接攻潜作战仿真

在水下声呐系统目标指示条件下,进行直接鱼雷攻潜是1种创新型战法.针对直接空投鱼雷攻潜作战问题,将水声环境信息引入鱼雷目标识别过程,建立了更为逼真的模拟法效能评估模型.仿真分析了目标定位精度,投雷参数、鱼雷搜索参数等各关键因素对攻潜作战效果的影响,提出了在水下声呐基阵目标指示直接攻潜作战时,应重点关注的若干问题.     

Defending a Moving Target Against Missile or Torpedo Attack

Problems involving kinematics of a counterweapon intercepting an attacking missile are well known. However, when the attacker's target, the counterweapon's launch platform, is moving, the problem generally becomes amenable only to trajectory simulation. Such may be the case in defense against torpedo attack against a ship and other situations involving the use of antimissile missiles. This paper derives the kinematic relations among the three bodies (missile, target, and counterweapon) in closed form under the asymptotic approximation of constant-bearing trajectories (collision courses). It is shown that the defending target, even if moving, can still determine the optimum course for its counterweapon when range and speed of the attacking vehicle are unknown. A simple relation is derived for the ratio between the attacker-target range (and time to impact) at counterweapon launch and the range at interception of the attacker by the counterweapon. Normalized curves are presented for some representative cases of defense by a counterweapon of known speed against a torpedo or missile attack on a moving target. The equations are shown to reduce to the familiar form for a stationary target.