Economics of telecommunications space segments

This paper proposes a complete model for assessing the economics of telecommunications satellite systems, accounting for spacecraft development and manufacturing, launch and operations in orbit. This allows to account for such parameters as the mass and lifetime of the satellites, the number and type of payloads, the number of satellites procured and launched, the spare policy, the launch vehicle, the insurances, the satellite average MTTF and the management of the space segment efforts.

The model is divided into four parts: the spacecraft mass model, the spacecraft procurement cost model, the MTTF model and the space segment cost-effectiveness model. It provides for the rapid solution of a number of problems within a wide range of parameters such as assessing the influence on space segment economics of —certain satellite technologies, —satellite and payload mass, —number of payloads per spacecraft, —satellite lifetime, or —spare policy.     

Cost reduction trends in space communications by larger satellites/platforms

The paper analyses first the satellite growth trend in the past and the specific characteristics of communication satellites, as there are specific mass per channel and payload share vs. spacecraft mass.

With assistance of a cost model (derived from actual spacecraft cost) it is shown that larger satellites are more cost effective. The same applies to the launch cost, also showing a reduction in specific cost (per kg or per channel-year) for larger payloads.

Finally different types of communication satellites/platforms are compared (two smaller satellites, one large satellite, modular docked assemblies) for the same total communication capacity of 72 000 dual telephone channels. It is shown that for each orbital communication capacity a certain optimum spacecraft size exists which leads to minimum space segment cost.     

VEGA, a small launch vehicle

Several studies have been performed in Europe aiming to promote the full development of a small launch vehicle to put into orbit one ton class spacecrafts. But during the last ten years, the european workforce was mainly oriented towards the qualification of the heavy class ARIANE 5 launch vehicle.Then, due also to lack of visibility on this reduced segment of market, when comparing with the geosatcom market, no proposal was sufficiently attractive to get from the potentially interrested authorities a clear go-ahead, i.e. a financial committment.

The situation is now rapidly evolving. Several european states, among them ITALY and FRANCE, are now convinced of the necessity of the availability of such a transportation system, an important argument to promote small missions, using small satellites. Application market will be mainly scientific experiments and earth observation; some telecommunications applications may be also envisaged such as placement of little LEO constellation satellites, or replacement after failure of big LEO constellation satellites.

FIAT AVIO and AEROSPATIALE have proposed to their national agencies the development of such a small launch vehicle, named VEGA.

The paper presents the story of the industrial proposal, and the present status of the project: Mission spectrum, technical definition, launch service and performance, target development plan and target recurring costs, as well as the industrial organisation for development, procurement, marketing and operations.     

Rosetta: The ESA comet rendezvous mission

Rosetta was selected in November 1993 for the ESA Cornerstone 3 mission, to be launched in 2003, dedicated to the exploration of the small bodies of the solar system (asteroids and comets). Following this selection, the Rosetta mission and its spacecraft have been completely reviewed: this paper presents the studies performed the proposed mission and the resulting spacecraft design.

Three mission opportunities have been identified in 2003–2004, allowing rendezvous with a comet. From a single Ariane 5 launch, the transfer to the comet orbit will be supported by planetary gravity assists (two from Earth, one from Venus or Mars); during the transfer sequence, two asteroid fly-bys will occur, allowing first mission science phases. The comet rendezvous will occur 8–9 years after launch; Rosetta will orbit around the comet and the main science mission phase will take place up to the comet perihelion (1–2 years duration).

The spacecraft design is driven (i) by the communication scenario with the Earth and its equipment, (ii) by the autonomy requirements for the long cruise phases which are not supported by the ground stations, (iii) by the solar cells solar array for the electrical power supply and (iv) by the navigation scenario and sensors for cruise, target approach and rendezvous phases. These requirements will be developed and the satellite design will be presented.     

空间碎片减缓策略效果仿真

根据机构间空间碎片协调委员会(IADC)和欧空局(ESA)的空间碎片减缓要求,在建立航天发射、爆炸和碰撞模型,以及碎片演化机制的基础上,对常规发射(BAU)、禁止在轨爆炸(NO-EX)和全面减缓(MIT)三种空间碎片减缓策略条件下,对2000~2100年空间碎片环境进行了仿真计算。结果表明,禁止航天器在轨爆炸、对失效的卫星和火箭上面级实施离轨操作,以及在航天器的发射和运行中不产生或抛弃分离物等减缓措施是限制空间碎片数量增长的有效方法。     

The critical satellite technical issues of future pervasive broadband low-cost communication networks

Using a baseline design for a 30/20 GHz system, this paper addresses the critical technical issues of signal waveform design, projected spacecraft technology, satellite launch options and satellite cost. With DPCM (differential pulse-coded modulation) video signal encoding, 32 Mb/s user-to-user data rate per channel, 10% overhead, two orthogonal polarizations, and crosstalk loss limited to 1 dB, TFM (tamed frequency modulation—a type of QPSK) permits about 75 channels/GHz of frequency allocation, i.e. about twice the capacity possible with MSK or SFSK (types of QPSK). The BOM (beginning of mission) weight and power of a baseline 400-channel multi-beam satellite is about 1800 kg and 5000 W. Each 35 Mb/s channel can support 1–10 video channels depending on the signal processing at the ground terminals. These weight and power estimates assume hardened digital logic, composite material for a multibeam antenna structure, high-efficiency solar cells (45 W/kg), NiH₂ batteries and 10W/20 GHz power amplifiers. If more speculative late-1980s solar cell technology is assumed, then the BOM weight decreases about 10–15%. Using the Space Transportation System being developed by NASA, geosynchronous deployment options are shown as a function of communications capacity. Based on a cost model for large communication satellites, the total space segment cost of two active satellites and one spare would be about $485M. This system would have a peak capacity of 14 Gb/s or 400-35 Mb/s simultaneous one-way channels. Demonstration and/or initial system (ground plus space) costs would be significantly less. It is concluded that the above baseline satellite appears to be technically feasible in the late-1980s.     

Maiden Flight of Long March 7——The New Generation Medium Launch Vehicle in China

On June 25, 2016, the Long March 7(LM-7) launch vehicle completed its maiden flight successfully. LM-7, as a new generation of medium and basic launch vehicle based on the design concepts of non-toxic and nonpolluting, was developed for the purpose of launching a cargo spacecraft to the Chinese space station. Based on the experience on launching cargo spacecraft and satellites, LM-7 can be adapted for mainstream satellite launch missions in the future with its characteristics of serialization and continuous optimization. LM-7 is expected to be used to launch manned spacecraft in the future. This paper presents a general review of LM-7 with regard to the general scheme and provides references for the development prospects of a medium launch vehicle series in China.     

The overredundant spacecraft—A competitive approach to future telecommunication satellites

Present operational space telecommunication systems are based on simultaneous availability of more than one satellite on orbit, mainly a spare satellite in addition to the operational one.Considering the costs associated to the delivery of extra flight models and to extra launchers, the question is asked whether it would not be advantageous to launch a very limited number of “overredundant” spacecraft instead of several standard satellites.The paper gives main conditions of reliability, size and redundancy concept under which an “overredundant” spacecraft could be a competitive approach to future operational systems.     

The development of a Russian communication satellite of small class, operating in the geostationary and high-elliptical orbits

In 1994–1995 Lavochkin Association (Russia) together with the other enterprises in accordance with technical requirements of the Russian Space agency, developed a new Russian communication satellite of a small class that will operate in both the geostationary (GSO) and high-elliptical (HEO) orbits. This satellite may be injected into operational orbits using a SOYUZ-2 launch vehicle (LV) and a FREGAT upper stage (US) from Plesetsk and Baykonur space launch sites (SLS).The main reason for creating such a satellite was to decrease the cost of the support and development of the Russian communication geostationary satellites group.Russian satellites Horizont, Express, Ekran and Gals, which operate in GSO, are the basis of the space segment for communications, radio and TV broadcasting. All of these satellites are injected into GSO by the PROTON LV. PROTON is a launch vehicle of a heavy class. The use of a middle class LV instead of a heavy class will allow to reduce considerably the launch cost. The change of a heavy class LV to a LV of middle class determined one economic reason for this project. Besides, the opportunity to launch S/C into GSO from Russian Plesetsk SLS increases the independence of Russia in the domain of space communications, despite the presence of the contract with Kazachstan about the rent of Baykonur SLS. Finally, use of small satellites with a rather small number of transponders is more effective than the use of big satellites. It will allow also to increase a satellite group (by the launch of additional satellites) precisely in accordance to the development of the ground segment.     

The development of a Russian communication satellite of small class, operating in the geostationary and high-elliptical orbits

In 1994-1995 Lavochkin Association (Russia) together with the other enterprises in accordance with technical requirements of the Russian Space agency, developed a new Russian communication satellite of a small class that will operate in both the geostationary (GSO) and high-elliptical (HEO) orbits. This satellite may be injected into operational orbits using a SOYUZ-2 launch vehicle (LV) and a FREGAT upper stage (US) from Plesetsk and Baykonur space launch sites (SLS).The main reason for creating such a satellite was to decrease the cost of the support and development of the Russian communication geostationary satellites group.Russian satellites Horizont, Express, Ekran and Gals, which operate in GSO, are the basis of the space segment for communications, radio and TV broadcasting. All of these satellites are injected into GSO by the PROTON LV. PROTON is a launch vehicle of a heavy class. The use of a middle class LV instead of a heavy class will allow to reduce considerably the launch cost. The change of a heavy class LV to a LV of middle class determined one economic reason for this project. Besides, the opportunity to launch S/C into GSO from Russian Plesetsk SLS increases the independence of Russia in the domain of space communications, despite the presence of the contract with Kazachstan about the rent of Baykonur SLS. Finally, use of small satellites with a rather small number of transponders is more effective than the use of big satellites. It will allow also to increase a satellite group (by the launch of additional satellites) precisely in accordance to the development of the ground segment.     

Some problems of selection and evaluation of the Martian suit enclosure concept

One of the most important tasks for preparation of a future manned mission to Mars is to create a space suit, which ensures efficient and safe operation of the man on the planet surface.

The concept of space suit (SS) utilisation on the Mars surface will be determined mainly by the Mars mission scenario. Currently the preference is given to utilisation of robotics with the crew driving a Mars rover vehicle, whereby the suit will be used solely as an additional safety means.

However, one cannot exclude the necessity of a durable self-contained stay of the man outside a pressurised compartment, to pick up, for instance, soil samples or do certain repair work in case of an emergency.

The requirements to the Mars suit and especially to the personal self-contained life support system (LSS) will depend in many respects on the Mars environmental conditions, the space vehicle system concept and performance characteristics, the airlock and its interface design, the availability of expendable elements for the LSS, etc.

The paper reviews principal problems, which have to be solved during development of the Martian suit. A special attention is paid to the issue of suited man mobility during traversing on the planet surface.

The paper also reviews the arguments for application of a suit semi-rigid design concept and evaluates potentialities of using certain elements of the existing “Orlan” type suit.

The paper presents results of a number of studies on selection of the planetary SS enclosure concept and on experimental evaluation of mobility of the lower torso and leg enclosures in conjunction with a specially designed prototype model (tentative model) of the SS enclosure.     

Technical and economical comparison between a modular geostationary space platform and a cluster of satellites

In recent years, the identification of a large number of telecommunication missions reflects a growing demand for the provision of a large variety of communications and data transmission services performed by a space segment.

At present, communication space segment use a single operational satellite per orbit position. However, the expected increase of communication channels per space segment will lead to a corresponding increase of satellite mass and size which could exceed the capabilities of existing launch vehicles in terms of mass and volume requirements. Those considerations, coupled with the threatening saturation of the geostationary orbit, lead to the conclusion that an optimal space segment concept must be defined on a technical as well as economical point of view.

Two main concepts may be envisaged: one is a large platform, which can be assembled either in geostationary orbit (resulting in several launches, rendez-vous and docking), or in low earth orbit by using the STS; the other concept is a cluster of satellites.

These candidate concepts are designed to meet the requirements of a reference mission. They are characterized by the required number of modules to be launched, the type of launcher, the new subsystems or equipments to be developed. The concepts are evaluated following technical criteria such as adaptability to other missions, flexibility, growth potential. A cost/benefit evaluation of each solution is presented. A comparison between the different concepts is then made on the basis of the technical/economical attractiveness of each solution.     

航天器非地球轨道热环境模拟技术探讨

月球、火星探测器等非地球轨道航天器与地球轨道航天器对热控的要求有很大的不同,为验证热控设计的合理性,必须在地面做好充分的热环境模拟试验.国内绝大部分空间环模设备都是以模拟地球轨道航天器在轨环境为目的建设的,显然不能满足深空探测需要.文章针对航天器非地球轨道深空热环境模拟技术进行探讨.     

Dual attitude and parameter estimation of passively magnetically stabilized nano satellites

The attitude determination capability of a nano satellite is limited by a lack of traditional high performance attitude sensors, a result of having small budgets for mass and power. Attitude determination can still be performed on a nano satellite with low fidelity sensors, but an accurate model of the spacecraft attitude dynamics is required. The passive magnetic stabilization systems commonly employed in nano satellites are known to introduce uncertainties in the parameters of the attitude dynamics model that cannot easily be resolved prior to launch. In this paper, a batch estimation problem is formulated that simultaneously solves for the attitude of the spacecraft and performs parameter estimation on the magnetic properties of the magnetic materials using only a measurement of the solar vector. The estimation technique is applied to data from NASA Ames Research Center's O/OREOS nano satellite and the University of Michigan's RAX-1 nano satellite, where clear differences are detected between the magnetic properties as measured before launch and those that fit the observed data. To date this is the first known on-orbit verification of the attitude dynamics model of a passively magnetically stabilized spacecraft.     

美国调整军事航天器的发展策略

美国对军事航天器的依赖性不断增强,也面临着航天器越来越长的研制周期和越来越高的研制成本,因此,改变军事航天器的发展策略成为当务之急。美国为提升战场实战能力正在进行发展思路的战略性调整,主要包括:拓展搭载军事有效载荷的途径;推进将大型卫星有效载荷拆分成小卫星的模式;开发分布式军事太空系统结构;对运载资源挖潜;优化商业模式实现业务拓展。对已有卫星的后续系统,进行规模改造与能力提升途径的调整,主要包括:对于军事通信卫星,扩大宽带或"超高频"(SHF)系统,突出窄带或"特高频"(UHF)系统及"先进极高频"(AEHF)系统;分步升级GPS的地面部分,将GPS-3提升为国家关键基础设施;确保导弹预警卫星系统重点。在开发新系统时,美国注重提高效能和降低成本,发展有效的支持能力和低成本小卫星系统,提高低成本机动发射和快速进入太空的能力,并以轨道资源利用为目的开拓新途径。     

The transcost-model for launch vehicle cost estimation and its application to future systems analysis

The first part of the paper describes the structure of the analytical cost estimation model (1982 edition) for launch vehicle development, fabrication and launch operations cost. Especially the new approach for a cost assessment of operations cost including refurbishment (in case of reusable vehicles), direct and indirect operations is presented for discussion and subsequent improvements by introduction of more reference values. The model uses the Man-Year (MY) as cost unit which is independent from inflation and currency exchange rate changes.

The second part of the paper deals with its application to future systems analysis and cost comparison with the example of a potential future European launcher (Post-Ariane-4) with 15 tons LEO payload capability: ten different two-stage launch vehicle concepts (expendable, semi-reusable and fully reusable) with storable and cryogenic propellants are analysed with respect to development cost and cost per launch.

The key problem for a future European launch vehicle is the optimum solution between the (limited) development effort and the desired minimum launch cost. More advanced (partially) reusable systems could provide an essential reduction in cost per launch, require, however, a higher development effort.

In such a case an analytical cost model based on realistic reference data can provide important data for the vehicle concept selection process.     

SSETO—Small Satellite for Exoplanetary Transit Observation

SSETO is the result of a phase-A study in context of the small satellite program of the University of Stuttgart that demonstrates the capability of a university institute to build a small satellite with a budget of 5 million Euro. The satellite will be capable of observing exoplanets in a Neptune–Earth scale and obtaining data of interstellar dust. Due to a system failure of NASA?s Kepler mission, there is currently (October 2013) a lack of satellites searching for exoplanets. This paper details the design of subsystems and payload, as well as the required test tasks in accordance with the mission profile at a conceptional level. The costs for standard spacecraft testing and integration tasks are included, but not those of launch, ground support, operations and engineer working hours.     

远程自主接近轨道设计技术

对完成任务的运载火箭末级、失效卫星等空间非合作目标进行空间操作是复杂的,需要地面测控网与主动航天器的密切合作才能完成抵近及相应操作。以火箭末级残骸作为空间非合作目标,给出了远程自主接近的轨道设计方法。通过地面遥控上传的目标轨道参数,主动航天器进行自主异面机动、主动调相等多次点火,完成对非合作目标的远程接近,接近距离在50km之内,2016年6月底远征一号甲上面级的成功飞行验证了该方法和设计结果的有效性。     

Communications satellite business ventures : Measuring the impact of technology programmes and related policies

Both commercial organizations and government agencies invest in spacecraft technology programmes aimed at increasing the performance of communications satellites. Government agencies also make policy decisions which may affect communications satellite business ventures. This article describes an economic evaluation and planning tool which has been developed to assess the impact of various policies on typical fixed satellite service business ventures. The methodology is based upon a stochastic financial simulation model (DOMSAT II) which allows for consideration of reliability and various market, performance and cost uncertainties. Results of the assessment of NASA on-orbit and space power technology programmes are presented, as are results of insurance v self insurance decisions and the choice of transportation system.