第23至24周太阳质子事件的统计特征

第23至24太阳活动周（1997-2016年）期间太阳质子事件的强度统计分析表明,1997-2016年期间总共发生了128个太阳质子事件,其中峰值通量范围为10~99pfu,100~999pfu,1000~2999pfu及>3000pfu的事件分别占55.15%,27.94%,9.56%,7.35%.太阳质子事件的不对称性分析表明,不同强度太阳质子事件东西不对称性的程度不相同,其中1000~2999pfu事件的不对称性最强,而3000pfu以上事件的不对称性最弱.第23周期间,太阳质子事件主要发生在太阳活动周两个峰值之间和最大峰值之后的时段,而第24周太阳质子事件主要发生在太阳活动周最大峰值之前.     

Predicting indices of the ionosphere response to solar activity for the ascending phase of the 25th solar cycle

The international reference ionosphere, IRI, and its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, models require reliable prediction of solar and ionospheric proxy indices of solar activity for nowcasting and forecasting of the ionosphere parameters. It is shown that IRI prediction errors could increase for the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the peak height hmF2 due to erroneous predictions of the ionospheric global IG index and the international sunspot number SSN1 index on which IRI and IRI-Plas models are built. Regression relation is introduced to produce daily SSN1 proxy index from new time series SSN2 index provided from June 2015, after recalibration of sunspots data. To avoid extra errors of the ionosphere model a new solar activity prediction (SAP) model for the ascending part of the solar cycle SC25 is proposed which expresses analytically the SSN1 proxy index and the 10.7-cm radio flux F10.7 index in terms of the phase of the solar cycle, Φ. SAP model is based on monthly indices observed during the descending part of SC24 complemented with forecast of time and amplitude for SC25 peak. The strength of SC25 is predicted to be less than that of SC24 as shown with their amplitudes for eight types of indices driving IRI-Plas model.     

Probing solar and stellar interior dynamics and dynamo

Solar and stellar activity is a result of complex interaction between magnetic field, turbulent convection and differential rotation in a star’s interior. Magnetic field is believed to be generated by a dynamo process in the convection zone. It emerges on the surface forming sunspots and starspots. Localization of the magnetic spots and their evolution with the activity cycle is determined by large-scale interior flows. Thus, the internal dynamics of the Sun and other stars hold the key to understanding the dynamo mechanism and activity cycles. Recently, significant progress has been made for modeling magnetohydrodynamics of the stellar interiors and probing the internal rotation and large-scale dynamics of the Sun by helioseismology. Also, asteroseismology is beginning to probe interiors of distant stars. I review key achievements and challenges in our quest to understand the basic mechanisms of solar and stellar activity.     

The asymmetry of the solar cycle: A result of non-linearity

The paper presents a numerical analysis of Wolf sunspot numbers, with emphasis being laid on the asymmetry of the cyclic variation. To that purpose we have used the standard tables of monthly numbers and, in addition to the Fourier transform, we have done an overall analysis of the trend around each maximum. Many of these maxima present an asymmetry, and sometimes the presence of two maxima is evident. The non-linear RLC van der Pol model suggested by Polygiannakis and Moussas [Polygiannakis, J.M., Moussas, X. A nonlinear RLC solar cycle model. Solar Physics 163, 193–203, 1996] can explain many features of the observed asymmetries. Our analysis shows that a consistent deconvolution in two Gaussian curves is possible for each maximum. We may presume that the observed sunspot time series includes a hidden complex structure. This could give some hints of a behavior typical for coupled non-linear oscillators. It is a matter of further interpretations. whether such “oscillators” are just a simple approximation of a much complex phenomenon, or are a sign of another more physically based model like the dynamo model (or other models).     

New evidence of solar variation in temperature proxies from Northern Fennoscandia

A new summer temperature proxy was built for northern Fennoscandia in AD 1000–2004 using parameters of tree growth from a large region, extending from the Swedish Scandes to the Kola Peninsula. It was found that century-scale (55–140 year) cyclicity is present in this series during the entire time interval. This periodicity is highly significant and has a bi-modal structure, i.e. it consists of two oscillation modes, 55–100 year and 100–140 year variations. A comparison of the century-long variation in the northern Fennoscandian temperature proxy with the corresponding variations in Wolf numbers and concentration of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be in glacial ice shows that a probable cause of this periodicity is the modulation of regional climate by the secular solar cycle of Gleissberg. This is in line with the results obtained previously for a more limited part of the region (Finnish Lapland: 68–70° N, 20–30° E). Thus the reality of a link between long-term changes in solar activity and climate in Fennoscandia has been confirmed. Possible mechanisms of solar influence on the lower troposphere are discussed.     

Non-stationarity and cross-correlation effects in the MHD solar activity

The analysis of turbulent processes in sunspots and pores which are self-organizing long-lived magnetic structures is a complicated and not yet solved problem. The present work focuses on studying such magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) formations on the basis of flicker-noise spectroscopy using a new method of multi-parametric analysis. The non-stationarity and cross-correlation effects taking place in solar activity dynamics are considered. The calculated maximum values of non-stationarity factor may become precursors of significant restructuring in solar magnetic activity. The introduced cross-correlation functions enable us to judge synchronization effects between the signals of various solar activity indicators registered simultaneously.     

Sharp boundaries of solar wind plasma structures and their relationship to solar wind turbulence

Sharp (<10 min) and large (>20%) solar wind ion flux changes are common phenomena in turbulent solar wind plasma. These changes are the boundaries of small- and middle-scale solar wind plasma structures which can have a significant influence on Earth’s magnetosphere. These solar wind ion flux changes are typically accompanied by only a small change in the bulk solar wind velocity, hence, the flux changes are driven mainly by plasma density variations. We show that these events occur more frequently in high-density solar wind. A characteristic of solar wind turbulence, intermittency, is determined for time periods with and without these flux changes. The probability distribution functions (PDF) of solar wind ion flux variations for different time scales are calculated for each of these periods and compared. For large time scales, the PDFs are Gaussian for both data sets. For small time scales, the PDFs from both data set are more flat than Gaussian, but the degree of flatness is much larger for the data near the sharp flux change boundaries.     

Ozone destruction by solar electrons in relation to solar variability and the terrestrial latitude

Precipitating electrons from the radiation belts with energies greater than from 150 keV to 5 MeV have been correlated with ozone data of a large number of stations located within 40–70° N. Energetic electrons have been collected by the low altitude polar Russian satellite METEOR while ozone data have been compiled from almost ninety (90) stations located all over the world within the latitude zone 40–70° N.     

Temporal and spatial variation of equatorial ionization anomaly by using multistation ionosonde data for the 19th solar cycle over the Indian region

The paper deals with the study of temporal and spatial variation of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) phenomenon along with its dependence on solar activity and season during the 19th solar cycle by using seven Indian ionosonde stations. Present study is an attempt to carry out the comprehensive study of EIA by using the limited number of ground based instruments. This has been achieved by performing the Gaussian fitting over the latitudinal distribution of F2-region critical frequency (foF2) data. Results reveal that the phenomenon of EIA has a strong dependence on solar activity and seasons. The EIA crest exhibits the feature of latitudinal shifting and expansion with increasing solar activity. It is found out that the effect of solar cycle and seasons on EIA is local time dependent. The observations were also compared with the IRI-2001 model predictions and results reveal that the model values are in general agreement with the observed values with some discrepancies, particularly during the high solar activity period and morning sector. The results have been discussed in the light of relative contribution from transequatorial interhemispheric neutral wind and strength of equatorial fountain process during different local time, season and solar activity levels. Furthermore, an attempt is made to parameterize the location and foF2 of the EIA crest by using the regression analysis. These results can be used to predict the latitudinal position and foF2 of the EIA crest for any given 12-month running average sunspot number (R12).     

Temporal variation of the arterial pressure in healthy young people and its relation to geomagnetic activity in Mexico

We present a study of the temporal behavior of the systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure for a sample of 51 normotensive, healthy volunteers, 18 men and 33 women with an average age of 19 years old in Mexico City, Mexico, during April and May, 2008. We divided the data by sex along the circadian rhythm. Three geomagnetic storms occurred during the studied time-span. The strongest one, a moderate storm, is attributed to a coronal hole border that reached the Earth. The ANOVA test applied to the strongest storm showed that even though we are dealing with a moderate geomagnetic storm, there are statistically significant responses of the blood pressure. The superposed epoch analysis during a three-day window around the strongest storm shows that on average the largest changes occurred for the SBP. Moreover, the SBP largest increases occurred two days before and one day after this storm, and women are the most sensitive group as they present larger SBP and DBP average changes than men. Finally, given the small size of the sample, we cannot generalize our results.     

Latitudinal variation of the topside electron temperature at different levels of solar activity

A database of electron temperature (T_e) measurements comprising of most of the available satellite measurements in the topside ionosphere is used for studying the solar activity variations of the electron temperature T_e at different latitudes, altitudes, local times and seasons. The T_e data are grouped into three levels of solar activity (low, medium, high) at four altitude ranges, for day and night, and for equinox and solstices. We find that in general T_e changes with solar activity are small and comparable in magnitude with seasonal changes but much smaller than the changes with altitude, latitude, and from day to night. In all cases, except at low altitude during daytime, T_e increases with increasing solar activity. But this increase is not linear as assumed in most empirical T_e models but requires at least a parabolic approximation. At 550 km during daytime negative as well as positive correlation is found with solar activity. Our global data base allows to quantify the latitude range and seasonal conditions for which these correlations occur. A negative correlation with solar activity is found in the invdip latitude range from 20 to 55 degrees during equinox and from 20 degrees onward during winter. In the low latitude (20 to −20 degrees invdip) F-region there is almost no change with solar activity during solstice and a positive correlation during equinox. A positive correlation is also observed during summer from 30 degrees onward.     

Relationship between daily variation of cosmogenic nuclide Be-7 concentration in atmosphere and solar activities

Daily Be-7 concentrations in air at the height of 15 m are continuously observed at 38°15.2′N, 140°20.9′E, between 2000 and 2001. The average concentration and the relative standard deviation were 4.0 mBq/m³ and 50% in 2000–2001, respectively. The Be-7 concentrations increased 2.5% with the decrease in the sunspot numbers by 6.7% for the term of two years. From the power spectral analysis, the periodicity of 26 days is shown for the daily Be-7 concentrations. The folding analysis indicates that the time variation of the Be-7 concentration is similar to that of the ground-based neutron counting rate, and the phase delay for the minimum portion of Be-7 concentration was roughly 8 days to the maximum sunspot number. These results indicate that the Be-7 concentrations in the air at ground level have 26 day periodicity as a component of time variations and the time variation is caused by the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays, which corresponds to the variation of the sunspot number due to the rotation of the sun.     

Drag force on solar sails due to absorption of solar radiation

We consider a special relativistic effect, known as the Poynting–Robertson effect, on various types of trajectories of solar sails. Since this effect occurs at order v^?/c, where v^? is the transversal speed relative to the sun, it can dominate over other special relativistic effects, which occur at order v²/c². While solar radiation can be used to propel the solar sail, the absorbed portion of it also gives rise to a drag force in the transversal direction. For escape trajectories, this diminishes the cruising velocity, which can have a cumulative effect on the heliocentric distance. For a solar sail directly facing the sun in a bound orbit, the Poynting–Robertson effect decreases its orbital speed, thereby causing it to slowly spiral towards the sun. We also consider this effect for non-Keplerian orbits in which the solar sail is tilted in the azimuthal direction. While in principle the drag force could be counter-balanced by an extremely small tilt of the solar sail in the polar direction, periodic adjustments are more feasible.     

Coronal spectroscopy: Probing sources of slow solar wind in active regions,and the early phases of solar flares

Coronal spectroscopy has pushed forward the understanding of physical processes in all phenomena on the Sun. In this review we concentrate specifically on plasma parameters measured in sources of the slow solar wind in active regions and the early phases of solar flares. These topics are a key part of the science goals of the Solar Orbiter mission (Müller et al., 2020) which has been designed to probe what drives the solar wind and solar transients that fill the heliosphere.Active regions, outside of flaring, have general characteristics that include closed loops showing red-shifted (down-flowing plasma), and the edges of the active regions showing blue-shifted (upflowing plasma). Constraining and understanding the evolution, behaviour and cause of the flows has been developed in the past years and are summarised. Of particular importance is the upflowing plasma which, in some cases, can contribute to the slow solar wind, and this review concentrates on recent results on this topic.The early phases of solar flares and their energy sources are not yet fully understood. For decades, there has been a huge interest in pin-pointing the trigger of a solar flare. Coronal spectroscopy has revealed small-scale dynamics that occurs tens of minutes before the flare begins. The understanding of the trigger is key to improving flare predictions in the future, as well as understanding the physical processes.Finally we look to the future of coronal spectroscopy, with new instruments and methodologies being developed that build on the current knowledge, and will improve significantly our physical understanding of processes at all scales on the Sun.     

Monopolar structure of the Sun in between polar reversals and in Maunder Minimum

After a polar reversal in one hemisphere the Sun has two polar caps of the same sign, leaving it in a kind of monopolar state. It may take months before a polar reversal occurs in the other hemisphere. The situation may have been extreme in the Maunder Minimum where the northern hemisphere most probably did not have polar reversals during several cycles, while the southern hemisphere may have had some. This may affect the interplanetary field and thus the cosmic rays reaching the Earth. Using the relation between the Wolf number and the speed of the global magnetic field regions the yearly mean Wolf number has to exceed 40 in order to have polar reversals, hence per hemisphere we expect that it must exceed 20. This may be used to give a definition of a deep minimum.     

Effects of optical parameter measurement uncertainties and solar irradiance fluctuations on solar sailing

The heliocentric orbital dynamics of a spacecraft propelled by a solar sail is affected by some uncertainty sources, including possible inaccuracies in the measurement of the sail film optical properties. Moreover, the solar radiation pressure, which is responsible for the solar sail propulsive acceleration generation, is not time-constant and is subject to fluctuations that are basically unpredictable and superimposed to the well-known 11-year solar activity cycle. In this context, this work aims at investigating the effects of such uncertainties on the actual heliocentric trajectory of a solar sail by means of stochastic simulations performed with a generalized polynomial chaos procedure. The numerical results give an estimation of their impact on the actual heliocentric trajectory and identify whether some of the uncertainty sources are more relevant than others. This is a fundamental information for directing more accurate theoretical and experimental efforts toward the most important parameters, in order to obtain an accurate knowledge of the solar sail thrust vector characteristics and, eventually, of the spacecraft heliocentric position.     

Statistical properties of the IMF clock angle in the solar wind with northward and southward interplanetary magnetic field based on ACE observation from 1998 to 2009: Dependence on the temporal scale of the solar wind

Utilizing ACE satellite observations from 1998 to 2009, we performed the elaborate study on the properties of the clock angle θ_CA (arctan(By/Bz) (?90° to 90°) of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) in the solar wind at 1?AU. The solar wind with northward IMF (NW-IMF) and southward IMF (SW-IMF) are analyzed, independently. Statistical analysis shows that the solar wind with SW-IMF and NW-IMF has similar properties in general, including their durations, the IMF Bz and By components, and the IMF θ_CA. Then, the solar wind with NW-IMF (SW-IMF) is classified into five different temporal scales according to the duration of the NW-IMF (SW-IMF), i.e., very-short wind of 10–30?min, short-scale wind of 0.5–1?h, moderate-scale wind of 1–3?h, long-scale wind of 3–5?h, and super-long wind >5?h. Our analysis reveals that the IMF θ_CA has a distinct decrease with increase of the temporal scale of the solar wind. Next, the solar wind is classified into two groups, i.e., the high-speed solar wind (>450?km/s) and the low-speed solar wind (<450?km/s). Our analysis indicates that the IMF θ_CA depends highly on the solar wind speed. Statistically, high-speed solar wind tends to have larger IMF θ_CA than low-speed solar wind. The evolutions of the solar wind and IMF with the solar activity are further studied, revealing no clear solar variation of the IMF θ_CA. Finally, we analyze the monthly variation of the IMF θ_CA. Superposed epoch result strongly suggests the seasonal variation of the IMF θ_CA.