The contest for leadership in East Asia: Japanese and Chinese approaches to outer space

Japan and China, as two advanced spacefaring nations in Asia-Pacific region, are often referred to as rivals in space. China's successful manned space launch program in 2003 and ASAT test in 2007 were considered as turning points which potentially introduces a “space race in Asia”. This article argues that there are three defining arenas in a space race: competition for prestige or soft power, competition over military capability or hard power, and competition of international services or public goods. It analyzes the objectives, norms and logics of space policy in Japan and China, and argues that these two countries have quite different thinking over what to do in space, explaining that they are playing different games in the first two arenas. However, Japan and China are competing for leadership and influence over the region. APRSAF and APSCO, two similar regional space organizations, are the vehicles for this competition. It concludes that there is a space race only in the third arena as a competition for leadership in Asia.     

The eagle eyes the dragon in space—A critique

China's space policy and its purpose have become an increasingly contentious subject. This paper critically examines the claims, made by Ashley Tellis, among others, that China has a space strategy decided and coordinated by the Chinese military and dedicated to defeating superior US power locally in an asymmetrical war, and that it is this military space strategy that drives China's single-minded pursuit of space science and technology and the development of China's space programme. To do so, the paper conducts two investigations: into the declining role of the Chinese military in China's foreign and security policy making and its limited influence in formulating China's grand strategy; and the other into the contingent history of China's two space programs, Shenzhou and Chang'e, which have largely been driven by civilian scientist communities, rather than the military. In so doing, I argue that the claims of China's ‘military space strategy’ are over-imaginative and serve a particular political purpose. The social imaginary of a threatening China produced by the US strategic gaze at China in space, I further argue, has dangerous policy implications.     

Towards an EU industrial policy for the space sector – Lessons from Galileo

The rise of the EU as an actor in the European and world space theatres, in its various roles as initiator, owner and operator of large-scale programmes such as Galileo and GMES, has raised a number of questions with regard to industrial policy. Based on the experiences from the Galileo programme's procurement round in the Full Operational Capability (FOC) phase and on the present discussions on space industrial policy within the EU, this paper argues that, whereas the EU's political ambitions in space have been discussed and become reasonably well defined, the specific policy tools and legal instruments to put them into practice are far from complete. First, an unequivocal industrial policy for the space sector needs to be defined that reconciles the Union's political ambitions with the economic specificities of the space sector. At present, this is a work in progress, with opinions diverging between member states. Second, both logically and temporally, these policy decisions need to be translated into legal instruments that allow their implementation. This implies the development of made-to-measure funding instruments and procurement rules. We conclude by emphasising the need for a sector-specific industrial policy as an integral part of the EU's space policy.     

Arms control and disarmament in space: the rough road to Vienna 1984 : Part II

This article continues a detailed examination of the international legal and diplomatic questions relating to arms control and disarmament, focusing on space-based activities. These are importantly concerned with the development of anti-satellite (ASAT) systems and ballistic missile defence (BMD). This part of the article considers the US Presidential-Congressional dialogue - particularly the ASAT testing issue - and Presidential initiatives vis-à-vis the USSR. An epilogue to the original paper considers the diplomatic moves and policy shifts which contributed to the January 1985 US-Soviet meeting and the agreement to begin bilateral negotiations to consider space and nuclear arms.     

An international symbol for the sustained exploration of space

As humanity prepares to extend its reach beyond low-Earth-orbit for the first time since the 1970s, a new symbol of international cooperation is needed to further promote the message of peace and collaboration such exploration entails. The space race that occurred between the USSR and the USA is an ill-suited model for long-term sustained space exploration because it is too costly and too resource-intensive for a single nation to bear. While competition is healthy for technology development, the success of a sustained space exploration strategy lies beyond technological capabilities. It lies in international cooperation, space policy, and public support. Without these, no program can realistically achieve a sustained presence in space beyond low-Earth orbit. To this effect, this paper proposes a cost-effective first step in the form of a universal symbol which, when placed alongside national flags displayed on hardware and astronaut/cosmonaut/taikonaut flight-suits, would send a strong message to the world that space exploration is done for the benefit of humanity as a whole, not just for spacefaring nations. The “Blue Marble”, the first complete picture of Earth taken from space by humans in 1972, fits this universally appealing symbol. This symbol requires no political collaboration between countries, yet is an image that anyone, anywhere in the world, can relate to regardless of nationality, ethnic origin or religious beliefs. Placed on the shoulder pads of human ’nauts – ambassadors of planet Earth – or prominently displayed on spacebound hardware, this symbol would send a universal message to present and future generations that, in space, our planet is working together for the benefit of everyone.     

Is there a need for an African space agency?

Over the past few years, the view has been expressed in some quarters that Africa should establish a continental space agency. Various arguments are advanced for this, but they are generally not compelling and rely mostly on pointing to the existence of other regional space cooperation organisations, or to benefits that are debatable. The article considers these arguments and concludes that there is an insufficient case for the establishment of an African space agency at this point in the development of the space arena in Africa. Instead, greater emphasis should be placed on strengthening nascent national space programmes, fostering intra-regional cooperation and raising the profile of space activities in Africa's national and regional political structures.     

Will China become a military space superpower?

China's ambitious space program was born in extremely poor national conditions in 1956. By 15 October 2003, with the successful return of the Shenzhou-4 manned space flight, it had developed dramatically. While this flight is a milestone in China's space capabilities, the Shenzhou-4 mission should be considered not as an end, but as the entry ticket to the space power club of the USA and Russia. China may now be a space power, but it is not yet a military space superpower in the way of the latter two countries. This paper investigates whether China will become a military space superpower by reviewing the development of its space program. It examines Chinese military space capabilities in terms of their military space potential, and discusses the political, military and economic implications of this issue. Finally, the paper suggests that China should continue to take the road to openness, focusing on commercial and economic efforts. This will be an alternative direction in which the country can consider exactly what space capabilities it needs in order to continue its economic development.     

中国液体运载火箭结构系统发展规划研究

结构系统是运载火箭关键系统之一,对运载效率提升具有显著作用。深入研究了国外运载火箭结构系统发展现状,根据我国运载火箭发展需求,结合我国航天发展和基础工业实际情况,从材料、结构形式、制造工艺等方面,提出了我国运载火箭结构系统重点发展方向和主要关键技术,对提升运载效率和推动航天强国建设具有重要的工程意义。     

‘Did you see that,grandpa Mao?’ The prestige and propaganda rationales of the Chinese space program

China has seen a dramatic acceleration in the scope and capabilities of its space program in the past decade. This has been coupled with significantly increased global economic presence and influence as well as a steady improvement of its military capabilities. China's emergence as a major world actor has encouraged the emergence of a ‘China threat’ school of thought which interprets all Chinese policy, including its space program, as an evidence of a threatening challenge to US dominance in which the pursuit of a range of military space capabilities plays a central role. This article challenges that interpretation, arguing that China's space program is the product of a range of factors including powerful domestic political and developmental rationales and that the program is overwhelmingly driven by domestic rather than international considerations, particularly in terms of the use of the program for the purposes of enhancing prestige.     

空间科学规划及对航天运输系统的需求

空间科学不仅能够推动我国在基础科学研究领域取得重大科学突破,还能够有效牵引、带动航天高新技术的发展。中国科学院空间科学战略性先导科技专项是"十二五"时期我国空间科学领域最重要的系统性进展,开启了中国空间科学发展的新篇章。"十三五"时期,我国将继续研制、发射一系列新的空间科学卫星,这对航天运输系统提出了新的技术发展需求。发展空间科学必将推动我国的航天强国、世界科技强国建设进程。     

Russia’s space program: continued turmoil

This article examines recent difficulties in the Russian space program through the analytic lens of the Russian political and economic reform effort. It argues that Russia’s problems go beyond a lack of financing. Instead, lack of investment and ‘brain drain’ have caused deep infrastructural problems which would take years of restored funding and political priority to fix. Russia’s continued activity in space stems almost solely from inertia left over from the Soviet period, and from funding provided by foreign partners anxious to exploit the cheap, sturdy elements of that Soviet legacy.     

Omicron space habitat—research stage II

The design presented in this paper is in response to the revolution in private space activities, the increasing public interest in commercial flights to space and the utilization of structures such as space hotels or private orbital habitats. The baseline for the Omicron design concept is the Russian Salyut derived space station module. Salyut was the first space station to orbit the Earth. Its unique design and technical features were what made the development of space stations Salyut 1–7, MIR and the International Space Station (ISS) Zwezda service module possible. Due to its versatility and the reliable operating launch vehicle Proton, this space module series has the potential to be adapted for space hotel development. This paper proposes a conceptual design of the space habitat called Omicron, with particular focus on interior design for the microgravity environment. The Omicron concepts address the needs of space tourism with a strong emphasis on the safety and comfort of the spaceflight participants. The Omicron habitat supports three inhabitants in nominal conditions (e.g., two passengers and one astronaut). The habitat provides a flexible interior, facilities and spaces dynamically transforming in order to accommodate various types of activities, which will be performed in an organically formed interior supporting spatial orientation and movement in microgravity. The future development potential of Omicron is also considered. The baseline version is composed solely of one rigid module with an inverted cupola for observations. An alternative version offers more space using an inflatable structure. Finally, a combination of multiple Omicron modules enables the creation of a larger orbital habitat. The Omicron's subsystems support a few days visit by trained passengers. The transport to the habitat would be provided e.g., by the Soyuz TMA spacecraft carried by the Soyuz launch vehicle in the early stage of Omicron's development, before a fully reusable spacecraft would be available.     

Space development: social and political implications

Far-reaching social and political issues are implicit in any discussion of large-scale space development. This Viewpoint argues that the evolution of appropriate political institutions to deal with these issues is likely to be at least as important as the development of new technology. If large-scale space development is to take place, global international cooperation will be essential and such cooperation will have to be underpinned by enhanced institutional and legal structures. In the shorter term, an appropriate institutional response may be the creation of a World Space Agency. However, in the longer term, we should probably view a world space programme as falling within that class of global concerns that would be most appropriately managed by a federal world government.     

Technology foresight in practice: A proposal for Turkish space vision

We are witnessing a fundamental change in the perception of space-related issues. Once a symbol of technological competition between opposing political systems, space activities have become a part of everyday life and an indispensable means for states to achieve economic, scientific, political and social goals. This Report addresses the space activities of Turkey, a latecomer to space challenge but a country rapidly progressing in this field. In this context, major space-related policies and projects are first discussed. The current status of the Turkish space industry is then defined through SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats). The analysis is informed by a May 2012 workshop was held in Turkey at the Defense Sciences Institute, which brought together a range of interested actors to discuss Turkey's space policy. The workshop was followed up six months later with a survey of a larger group of participants. This Report lays out the findings of these two events, articulating the strengths and weaknesses for Turkey's space aspirations, and also a proposal for the country's future space ambitions. Strategies and policies that will be supportive in achieving the proposed space vision are also introduced.     

EVA 2000: a European/Russian space suit concept

For the European manned space activities an EVA space suit system was being developed in the frame of the Hermes Space Vehicle Programme of the European Space Agency (ESA). The space suit was to serve the needs for all relevant extravehicular activities for the Hermes Columbus operations planned to begin in 2004. For the present Russian manned space programme the relevant EVAs are performed by the Orlan-DMA semi-rigid space suit. The origin of its development reaches back to the 1970s and has since been adapted to cover the needs for extravehicular activities on Salyut and MIR until today. The latest modification of the space suit, which guaranteed its completely self-contained operation, was made in 1988. However, Russian specialists considered it necessary to start developing an EVA space suit of a new generation, which would have improved performance and would cover the needs by the turn of the century and into the beginning of the next century. Potentially these two suit developments could have a lot in common based on similarities in present concepts. As future manned space activities become more and more an international effort, a safe and reliable interoperability of the different space suit systems is required. Based on the results of the Munich Minister Conference in 1991, the European Space Agency and the Russian Space Agency agreed to initiate a requirements analysis and conceptual design study to determine the feasibility of a joint space suit development, EVA 2000. The design philosophy for the EVA 2000 study was oriented on a space suit system design of: space suit commonality and interoperability; increased crew productivity and safety; increase in useful life and reduced maintainability; reduced development and production cost. The EVA 2000 feasibility study was performed in 1992, and with the positive conclusions for EVA 2000, this approach became the new joint European Russian EVA Suit 2000 Development Programme. This paper gives an overview of the results of the feasibility study and presents the joint requirements and the proposed design concept of a jointly developed European Russian space suit.     

Towards a European vision for space exploration: Recommendations of the Space Advisory Group of the European Commission

As a result of increasing public and political interest in ‘space’ (i.e. solar system) exploration at the global scale, the Space Advisory Group of the European Commission has evaluated the situation in Europe with regard to its potential to participate in this ambitious global enterprise. Aspects of science, technology, environment and safety, society, spin-offs and international cooperation were all considered. The group concluded that Europe possesses sufficient key technologies and scientific expertise to play a major role in international space exploration and has recommended that the EU take a central role to ensure the success of future European space exploration, not only to give a clear political signal for the way forward but also to ensure an appropriate financial framework. In this way Europe would embrace the spirit of the European Space Policy and contribute to the knowledge-based society by investing significantly in space-based science and technology, thereby playing a strong role in international space exploration.     

空间对抗发展态势分析及启示

以美、俄、欧盟以及日本等航天强国的空间对抗发展态势为研究背景,分析当前世界空间对抗领域的发展现状和趋势,梳理各主要航天强国重点发展的武器装备、积极推进的演示验证项目以及着力打造的技术能力。基于对世界各主要航天强国空间对抗领域关键技术能力的研判和分析,结合我国空间对抗领域的发展现状,分析我国当前在空间应用产品体系、研发方向和水平、产品服务与市场以及技术储备等方面的差距,提出我国空间应用产品领域的发展方向,有效支撑我国空间应用产品建设。     

发展X-37B空间飞机的背后动因分析

文章通过对X-37B飞行器的飞行试验任务分析,指出了X-37B飞行器不是空天飞机,也不是全球快速打击平台,而是一种低成本太空进入能力的飞行验证器,它的作用定位在空间而不是在空中。通过飞行试验和验证试验,旨在打造一个可重复使用的轨道转移运载器。将美国2010年航天战略的重大调整、国际空间站的运行延期和航天飞机退役等事件结合起来,对X-37B发展的背后动因进行分析,有助于了解美国航天发展的未来趋势。经过动因的详尽分析,指出要特别关注美国航天战略调整的两个重心转向,尤其是两个转向背后的动机。如何正确地认识国际空间站的作用定位,对于审视载人航天的未来发展有重要意义。美国航天战略的调整使载人航天的重心回到近地轨道上。基于中国目前的能力现实,建议中国的载人航天重心放在地球轨道上,做好各种能力的建设,并利用这些能力把地球轨道上的事做得更好。     

太空试验场的概念和内涵

针对空间科学、技术、应用各领域试验统筹有限,当前部分核心空间技术攻关过程中面临的机理不清以及空间作为战略制高点对国计民生的拉动力不足等问题,栾恩杰院士2016年首度提出太空试验场的概念,希望通过构建一系列的空间设施,系统地规划并主导后续太空试验任务。文章在调研国内外空间试验现状的基础上,分析空间试验发展趋势,阐述太空试验场的概念——它由空间段、地面段和软环境组成,提出其未来分阶段建设目标和系统服务框架。有关论述可为我国“成体系、分阶段”规划建设空间试验类基础设施,实现“按需求、高效率”的空间试验管理提供决策参考。