Proton flare and magnetic storm effect in the vicinity of the Earth.

We have developed a model and associated computational procedure for estimating energetic proton exposures during a major solar proton event that occur in combination with a large magnetic storm. Transmission functions for solar protons are computed using geomagnetic vertical cutoff data for quiescent and disturbed conditions. Predicted exposures in low altitude polar orbit are found to be orders of magnitude greater for severe magnetic storm conditions than are corresponding exposures in the absence of major disturbances. We examine the response scenario for the events of November 1960 as an example.     

Human exposure to large solar particle events in space.

Whenever energetic solar protons produced by solar particle events traverse bulk matter, they undergo various nuclear and atomic collision processes which significantly alter the physical characteristics and biologically important properties of their transported radiation fields. These physical interactions and their effect on the resulting radiation field within matter are described within the context of a recently developed deterministic, coupled neutron-proton space radiation transport computer code (BRYNTRN). Using this computer code, estimates of human exposure in interplanetary space, behind nominal (2 g/cm2) and storm shelter (20 g/cm2) thicknesses of aluminum shielding, are made for the large solar proton event of August 1972. Included in these calculations are estimates of cumulative exposures to the skin, ocular lens, and bone marrow as a function of time during the event. Risk assessment in terms of absorbed dose and dose equivalent is discussed for these organs. Also presented are estimates of organ exposures for hypothetical, worst-case flare scenarios. The rate of dose equivalent accumulation places this situation in an interesting region of dose rate between the very low values of usual concern in terrestrial radiation environments and the high dose rate values prevalent in radiation therapy.     

质子事件上升时间及峰值强度的统计研究

在耀斑已基本确定为质子耀斑的情况下, 为了对即将到达地球的太阳质子作出半定量的粗略预报(警报), 即估计从观测到光学耀斑开始, 需经多长时间质子通量将到达峰值;峰值强度有多大。为此, 我们收集了1967年5月—1972年12月约五年半期间国外发表的比较系统的质子事件资料, 以及相应的太阳耀斑和太阳射电资料。      

The Carrington event: Possible doses to crews in space from a comparable event

Recent ice core analyses suggest that the Carrington event of 1859 may have been the largest solar energetic particle event in the past several hundred years. Previous analyses of potential doses to humans and electronics from such an event suggested that a Carrington-like event, with a hard spectrum similar to that of the event of September 1989 could be catastrophic. Subsequent analyses of the ¹⁰Be concentration in the ice core data suggest that the spectral hardness of the Carrington event was softer and similar to the August 1972 event. In this work we review the earlier estimates of doses from a Carrington event, and present updated dose estimates for deep space crews and electronics using the Carrington event proton fluence ⩾30 MeV in combination with an event spectrum similar to that of the August 1972 event. Potential ramifications of these doses for humans and electronics on deep space missions are discussed.     

强磁暴、能量粒子暴与热层大气密度涨落之间的相关关系

利用1997-2007年由GOES8, GOES11和GOES12星载高能粒子探测器在地球同步轨道高度上所探测到的高能质子和高能电子通量探测数据以及高度560km左右星载大气密度探测器所得的热层大气密度探测数据, 统计分析了强地磁扰动、高能粒子通量跃变和热层大气密度涨落之间的相关关系, 初步获得强地磁扰动期间, 地球同步轨道(外辐射带外环)均出现了增幅大于三个数量级的高能质子通量(尤其是E>1MeV)强增强现象, 随后热 层大气密度强烈上涨, 表明三者之间是正相关关系. 在时间上地球同步轨道高能质子通量强增强现象先于日均Ap值(地磁活动程度)上涨约一天左右, 而热层大气密度强涨落现象又明显滞后于强地磁扰动事件.      

Space radiation environment in low earth orbit during influences from solar and geomagnetic events in December 2006

In low earth orbit, the SAA region is the dominant contributor to both proton environment and electron environment from the standpoint of radiation dose for spacecraft lifetime. However, the polar region and the horn region are sometimes strongly disturbed due to large solar and geomagnetic events. During large disturbances, enhancements in proton flux are measured in the polar region, which gives temporary more severe space radiation environment than that given in the SAA region. On the other hand, enhancements in electron flux are measured mainly in the horn region corresponding to the outer radiation belt, which are likely sources of high-energy electrons in the inner radiation belt. These short-term disturbances have another radiation hazard to spacecraft such as single event and electrostatic discharge.     

Evaluation of the dynamic cutoff rigidity model using dosimetry data from the STS-28 flight.

We have a developed a dynamic cutoff rigidity model based on computed world grids of vertical cutoff rigidities derived from employing the Tsyganenko magnetospheric model. The dynamic range of this model covers all magnetic activity levels specified by integer values of the Kp magnetic index. We present comparisons of the measured dose observed on the space shuttle during the August 1989 solar proton event with the dose computed from solar particles predicted to be allowed through the magnetosphere to the space shuttle position. We find a one-to-one correspondence between the portion of the orbit predicted to be subjected to solar protons and the portion of the orbit where solar particle dose measurements were obtained.     

γ-ray spectroscopy in Mars orbit during solar proton events

Understanding the evolution of Mars requires determining the composition of the surface and atmosphere of the planet. The European Space Agency’s ExoMars rover mission, which is expected to launch in 2016, is part of the Aurora programme. The instruments on the rover will search for evidence of life on Mars and will map a sub-section of the Martian surface, extracting compositional information. Currently our understanding of the bulk composition (and mineralogy) of Mars relies on orbital data from instruments on-board satellites such as 2001 Mars Odyssey, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter and Mars Express, in addition to in-situ instrumentation on rovers such as Spirit and Opportunity. γ-ray spectroscopy can be used to determine the composition of Mars, but it has yet to be successfully carried out in-situ on Mars. This study describes some of the results obtained from the γ-ray spectrometer on 2001 Mars Odyssey during solar proton events and discusses whether the increased emissions are useful in γ-ray spectroscopy. The study shows that although increased γ-ray emissions were expected from the Martian surface during a solar proton event, they were not detected from orbit probably due to insufficient signal-to-background. However, this does not preclude the possibility of measuring changes in γ-ray flux corresponding to changes in solar activity on the surface of the planet.     

太阳质子事件对太阳同步轨道空间辐射环境影响分析

介绍了南大西洋异常区的辐射环境及其特点，重点研究了发生于2000年7月14日的太阳质子事件对太阳同步轨道空间环境造成的影响，太阳质子事件期间，抵达近地空间的高能电子、质子及重离子对太阳同步轨道空间环境造成剧烈地扰动，并且不同种类不同能量的粒子扰动特征不尽相同。     

太阳活动突发过程对临近空间大气影响的模拟

空间天气对地球及近地空间具有重要影响,大的空间天气事件对中上层大气动力学和成分具有不同的影响。利用全大气耦合模式WACCM,针对太阳耀斑、太阳质子、地磁暴三类事件,以太阳活动平静期2015年5月10-14日的GEOS-5数据为模式背景场,通过F_10.7、离子产生率、Kp及Ap指数设置,分别模拟三类事件对临近空间大气温度、密度和臭氧的影响。结果表明耀斑事件在三类事件中对临近空间大气温度和密度的影响最为显著。平流层大气温度增加是由耀斑辐射增强引起平流层臭氧吸收紫外辐射发生的光化学反应所致,耀斑事件引起平流层和低热层温度增加约为2～3 K,低热层大气相对密度增加在6%以内;太阳质子事件及磁暴事件主要影响低热层,但太阳质子事件和磁暴事件对低热层温度扰动不大于1 K。     

利用质子强度变化对太阳质子事件进行短期预报方法初步研究

采用GOSE-10卫星4～9 MeV(P2),9～15 MeV(P3),15～40 MeV(P4),40～80 MeV(P5)能段上的质子通量数据,结合质子能谱,对太阳质子事件发生前各能谱参数的变化特征进行分析,详细介绍利用能谱参数的变化特征及能量E>10 MeV的质子通量数据对太阳质子事件进行预报的新方法,并运用这种方法对2002-2006年期间太阳质子事件进行了预报.预报结果显示,预报提前量最多达到100 h以上,对质子事件的报准率达97.5%,预报方法具备一定的有效性和实用性.      

The connection between space weather and Single Event Upsets in polar low earth orbit satellites

Space weather is driven and modulated by the activity in the Sun. Space weather events have the potential to inflict critical damage to space systems. Nowadays, space assets are essential in our basic needs, such as communications, cell phone networks, navigation systems, television and internet. Hence, understanding space weather dynamics and its effects on spacecraft is crucial for satellites engineers and satellite operators, in order to prevent and mitigate its impacts.In the last decade our Sun has erupted several times causing dozens of space weather events. Some of these led to satellite malfunctions and outages lasting from mere hours, up to days and weeks. This research is focused on two different space weather events, March 7–8, 2012, and September 6–10, 2017, that occurred during the last ten years and caused satellite anomalies that are related to an increase in the single event upsets rate. Single event upset is a bit flip in a memory device due to high energy particle interaction with the device sensitive volume. During these two periods, Eros B, a low Earth orbiting polar satellite detected an increased rate of single event upsets on two of its processing computers when the high energy proton flux was elevated. On both occasions X-class flares were detected, and the increased single event upsets count rate in Eros B took place only after the 100 MeV protons flux was three orders of magnitude above the background levels. In this research, Israeli satellite anomalies that were detected are first demonstrated.     

Unexpected burst of solar activity recorded by neutron monitors during October–November 2003

During the extreme burst of solar activity in October–November 2003, a series of outstanding events distinguished by their magnitude and peculiarities were recorded by the ground based neutron monitor network. The biggest and most productive in 23rd solar cycle active region 486 generated the most significant series of solar flares among of which the flare X28/3B on November 4, 2003 was the mostly powerful over the history of X-ray solar observations. The fastest arrival of the interplanetary disturbance from the Sun after the flare event in August 1972 and the highest solar wind velocity and IMF intensity were observed during these events. In one-week period three ground level enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays were recorded by neutron monitor network (28, 29 October and 2 November 2003). Maximum proton energy in these events seems to be ranged from 5 to 10 GeV. Joint analysis of data from ground level stations (neutron monitors) and satellite measurements allows the estimation of the particle path length, the onset time of the injection on the Sun and some other proton flux characteristics.     

Minimizing space radiation exposure during extra-vehicular activity

Continued assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) requires numerous extra-vehicular activities (EVAs). Prudent radiological safety practices require minimizing additional exposures to crewmen during these periods. The spatial distribution of the “normal” trapped proton and electron radiation sources in low Earth orbit is strongly governed by the geomagnetic field. It is possible to use ISS trajectory information to estimate crew exposures during EVAs and to identify periods that can result in minimal EVA crew exposures through avoidance of these trapped radiation regions. Such exposure minimization planning can also accommodate the unforeseen development of a solar proton event. An EVA exposure estimation tool, EVADOSE, is described and applied to various EVA exposure scenarios. Procedures and parameters that influence EVA exposures are discussed along with techniques to minimize crew exposures.     

Solar particle events as seen on CRRES.

High energy proton detectors on the Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES) were used to measure near-Earth solar protons in an 18 degrees inclination orbit between 350 km and 36000 km from July 1990 to October 1991. CRRES data from the major solar particle event on 23-25 March 1991 show conclusively that MeV solar protons can penetrate deep inside the magnetosphere (to an L-shell of 2.5 RE) when a large shock-induced Sudden Storm Commencement (SSC) occurs and significant solar particle populations are present at geosynchronous altitudes. The penetration of solar particles well inside boundaries predicted by Stormer theory occurred during every large solar event of the CRRES mission, as well as many of the smaller ones. Often the deep penetrations occurred simultaneously with the formation of new trapped radiation populations which peak at L-values between 2.3 and 4 RE (depending on particle energy) and which last from days to months.     

基于PCA方法对太阳活动区主要参量的分析

太阳耀斑与太阳质子事件的发生通常与太阳活动区存在非常密切的关系, 对这种关系的深入分析有助于太阳耀斑和太阳质子事件预报模型的建立. 本文利用主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis, PCA)方法对1997-2010年太阳质子事件所在活动区的主要参量进行分析, 选取的参量包括黑子磁分类、 McIntosh分类、太阳黑子群面积、10.7 cm射电流量、耀斑指数、质子耀斑位置和软X射线耀斑强度. 结果得到81个太阳活动主成分得分值排序(得分值代表每个事件的强弱), 与太阳质子事件峰值流量、太阳黑子年均值以及10.7 cm射电流量年均值的对比显示相似度非常高, 表明主成分得分值一定程度上可以反映太阳活动的强弱规律.      

Direct comparison of transient radiation belt topology and dynamics in 1991 based on measurements onboard Mir space station and NOAA satellite.

In March 1991 the CRRES spacecraft measured a new transient radiation belt resulting from a solar proton event and subsequent geomagnetic disturbance. The presence of this belt was also noted by dosimeter-radiometers aboard the Mir space station (approx. 400 km, 51 degrees orbit) and by particle telescopes on the NOAA-10 spacecraft (850 km, 98 degrees). This event provides a unique opportunity to compare particle flux and dose measurements made by different instruments in different orbits under changing conditions. We present here a comparison of the measurements made by the different detectors. We discuss the topology and dynamics of the transient radiation belt over a period of more than one year.     

PPS-87: a new event oriented solar proton prediction model.

A new event-oriented solar proton prediction model has been developed and implemented at the USAF Space Environment forecast facility. This new model generates predicted solar proton time-intensity profiles for a number of user adjustable energy ranges and is also capable of making predictions for the heavy ion flux. The computer program is designed so a forecaster can select inputs based on the data available in near real-time at the forecast center as the solar flare is occurring. The predicted event amplitude is based on the electromagnetic emission parameters of the solar flare (either microwave or soft X-ray emission) and the solar flare position on the sun. The model also has an update capability where the forecaster can normalize the prediction to actual spacecraft observations of spectral slope and particle flux as the event is occurring in order to more accurately predict the future time-intensity profile of the solar particle flux. Besides containing improvements in the accuracy of the predicted energetic particle event onset time and magnitude, the new model converts the predicted solar particle flux into an expected radiation dose that might be experienced by an astronaut during EVA activities or inside the space shuttle.     

1 AU轨道SEP粒子通量的计算及与多卫星观测结果的比较

1 AU轨道上太阳高能粒子(Solar Energetic Particles,SEP)通量是空间天气的重要指标.将SEP两步传播方程的格林函数解进行数值化,模拟了2012年9月28日的SEP事件,首次计算了同一事件中GOES卫星与STEREO双星观测到的SEP通量变化过程.对GOES和STEREO-B观测点,计算所得SEP峰值I_max和峰值到达时间t_max与观测值符合较好;对STEREO-A,由于观测点与太阳活动源区间隔较大及太阳背面未知事件的影响,计算结果与观测存在一定差异.      

低高度空间高能质子通量分布计算

介绍了AP-8模式、CRRESPRO模式和PSB97模式,并用这3种模式分别计算低高度空间300—1100km范围内的高能质子通量分布,由IDL软件绘出通量等值线图．AP-8模式通量主要受银河宇宙线调制,即受太阳活动直接影响,与太阳活动高年相比,太阳活动低年的质子通量较大;CRRESPRO模式中,因活动期和平静期的数据采集时间前后相差很短,从而使同一高度上两种环境条件下的通量分布相似．模式之间的比较结果表明,AP-8模式通量较小,CRRESFRO模式通量较大,PSB97模式通量介于二者之间,并与实测通量接近．PSB97是为低高度(1000km以下)定制的模式,在低高度上优于AP-8模式和CRRESPRO模式,能较好地计算当前条件下的低高度高能质子通量．