The local time dependence of the anisotropic solar cosmic ray flux.

The distribution of the solar cosmic radiation flux over the earth is not uniform, but the result of complex phenomena involving the interplanetary magnetic field, the geomagnetic field and latitude and longitude of locations on the earth. The latitude effect relates to the geomagnetic shield; the longitude effect relates to local time. For anisotropic solar cosmic ray events the maximum particle flux is always along the interplanetary magnetic field direction, sometimes called the Archimedean spiral path from the sun to the earth. During anisotropic solar cosmic ray event, the locations on the earth viewing "sunward" into the interplanetary magnetic field direction will observe the largest flux (when adjustments are made for the magnetic latitude effect). To relate this phenomena to aircraft routes, for anisotropic solar cosmic ray events that occur during "normal quiescent" conditions, the maximum solar cosmic ray flux (and corresponding solar particle radiation dose) will be observed in the dawn quadrant, ideally at about 06 hours local time.     

The influence of interplanetary shocks on solar protons measured in the stratosphere.

Since the beginning of the 22nd solar cycle twenty solar proton events were observed by the regular balloon measurements of cosmic rays. Temporal changes of intensities and energy spectra of solar protons with energy 100-500 MeV were obtained. The strong influence of interplanetary shock waves on the proton flux characteristics near the Earth was observed. Possible effects of solar proton transport in the vicinity of shock fronts are discussed to explain the observational data.     

Evaluation of solar proton spectra using balloon cosmic ray observations and Monte Carlo simulation results

We have developed a method to evaluate the spectrum of solar energetic protons at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere from the measurements of our balloon cosmic ray experiment. By using the Monte Carlo PLANETOCOSMICS code based on Geant4 we compute the interaction of solar protons [10 MeV–10 GeV] with the Earth’s atmosphere. We obtain the angular and energy distributions of secondary particles (p, e⁻, e⁺, photons, muons) at different atmospheric levels as a function of primary proton spectra. By comparing the calculated depth dependence of the particle flux with the data obtained by our balloon experiment we can deduce the parameters of the solar proton spectrum that best fit the observations. In this paper we discuss our solar proton spectrum estimation method, and present results of its application to selected solar proton events from 2001 to 2005.     

Significant proton events of solar cycle 22 and a comparison with events of previous solar cycles.

The sun has produced several high energy and large fluence solar proton events during solar cycle 22. This recent activity is similar to activity that occurred in the 19th solar cycle before the advent of routine space measurements. In a review of the recent events and a comparison with significant solar proton events of previous solar cycles, it appears that the 20th and 21st solar cycles were deficient in the total fluence of solar particles as detected at the earth. Therefore, when models of maximum solar proton fluxes to be encountered for deep space missions are developed, solar proton data acquired during the present solar cycle should be incorporated.     

质子事件上升时间及峰值强度的统计研究

在耀斑已基本确定为质子耀斑的情况下, 为了对即将到达地球的太阳质子作出半定量的粗略预报(警报), 即估计从观测到光学耀斑开始, 需经多长时间质子通量将到达峰值;峰值强度有多大。为此, 我们收集了1967年5月—1972年12月约五年半期间国外发表的比较系统的质子事件资料, 以及相应的太阳耀斑和太阳射电资料。      

Relative fluxes of shock and prompt peaks in SEP event time profiles

Peak fluxes are an important property of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) event time profiles from both astro/heliophysical and applications perspectives. However, the peak flux in an event may occur at the event onset, or at the time of the interplanetary shock arrival (the ESP or energetic storm particles). This makes an important difference in the interpretation of the peak flux, and in any attempts to characterize or model it. This paper describes a study of SEP data sets from ACE, IMP-8 and GOES toward determining the relative properties of these peak fluxes for protons with energies near 1, 10, and 50 MeV. The results suggest that for gradual events with both peaks, the ESP peak often dominates at 1 MeV energies and is dominant about half the time at 10 MeV. Moreover, the prompt peak fluxes can be used to estimate the shock peak (ESP event) up to days ahead, especially in the lower energy range.     

“风云一号”(B)星对内辐射带质子的观测结果

本文介绍“风云一号”(B)星上的“宇宙线成份监测器”于1990年11月19至24日对内辐射带质子的观测结果。通过对这些结果的分析, 本文获得了4—23MeV能量范围内辐射带质子垂直强度在磁坐标内的分布特征。同时, 本文还给出了100°E子午面内质子垂直强度的分布。分析表明, 所得结果与辐射带理论一致。      

Application of support vector machine combined with K-nearest neighbors in solar flare and solar proton events forecasting

The support vector machine (SVM) combined with K-nearest neighbors (KNN), called the SVM-KNN method, is new classing algorithm that take the advantages of the SVM and KNN. This method is applied to the forecasting models for solar flares and proton events. For the solar flare forecasting model, the sunspot area, the sunspot magnetic class, and the McIntosh class of sunspot group and 10 cm solar radio flux are chosen as inputs; for the solar proton event forecasting model, the inputs include the longitude of active regions, the flux of soft X-ray, and those for the solar flare forecasting model. Detailed tests are implemented for both of the proposed forecasting models, in which the SVM-KNN and the SVM methods are compared. The testing results demonstrate that the SVM-KNN method provide a higher forecasting accuracy in contrast to the SVM. It also gives an increased rate of ‘Low’ prediction at the same time. The ‘Low’ prediction means occurrence of solar flares or proton events with predictions of non-occurrence. This method show promise for forecasting models of solar flare and proton events.     

Statistical properties of SEP event flux declines

The interplanetary space is not a passive medium, which merely constitutes a scene for the propagation of previously accelerated energetic particles, but influences the distribution of particles by changing their energies as well due to interactions with magnetic field inhomogeneities. Such processes manifest themselves in the energy spectra of solar energetic particle (SEP) events. In this paper the fluxes of protons with energies of 4–60 MeV are investigated on the basis of two data sets. Both sets are homogeneous, obtained by the CPME instrument aboard the IMP 8 satellite between 1974 and 2001. The first includes all SEP events where the integral fluxes of >4 MeV protons exceeded 2 particle/cm² s sr. The other set consists of fluxes recorded in differential energy windows between 0.5 and 48 MeV. Important characteristics of SEP events include the rates of decrease of particle flux, which, as well as peak flux time, is an integral feature of the interplanetary medium within a considerable region, surrounding the observation point. The time intervals selected cover the decay phases of SEP events following flares, CMEs and interplanetary shocks of different origin. Only those parts of declines were selected, that could reasonably be described by exponential dependence, irrespective of the gradual/impulsive character of the events. It is shown that the average values of characteristic decay time, τ, and energy spectral index, γ, are all changing with the solar activity phase. Distributions of τ and γ values are obtained in SEPs with and without shocks and during different phases of events: just after peak flux and late after maximum.     

FY-3A卫星与NOOA系列卫星高能带电粒子实测结果的比较

FY-3A卫星是运行于830 km高度的太阳同步轨道气象卫星,其搭载的空间环境监测器可观测3～300 MeV的高能质子和0.15～5.70 MeV的高能电子.FY-3A卫星在轨工作期间,太阳活动处于由谷年向峰年过渡期,空间环境非常平静,探测结果显示3～300 MeV的高能质子分布主要集中在南大西洋辐射带异常区,0.15～5.70 MeV的高能电子分布区域除南大西洋异常区外,还分布在南北两极高纬区域.FY-3A与NOAA卫星测量结果反映出带电粒子强度及分布区域随投掷角变化的空间各向异性特征.本文在充分考虑了带电粒子时间、空间分布差异以及比对探测器之间自身设计差异的前提下,经过归一化处理后,首次对两颗卫星同期探测结果进行相关性分析,验证了两颗卫星相同时空条件下高能带电粒子通量分布的一致性;说明FY-3A空间环境监测器不仅具备空间带电粒子辐射监测能力,且探测结果有效可靠,可用作辐射带环境数据源的组成部分,为发展新的模型,深入研究辐射带高能粒子的分布、起源和传输等提供新的观测依据.     

太阳质子事件警报

采用人工神经网络预报方法,利用太阳耀斑的日面位置、X射线辐射的峰值流量及其上升时间、2695MHz和8800MHz微波辐射的半积分流量等5个物理参量,提出了一个新的太阳质子事件警报方案,预报太阳质子事件的发生及其流量和时间．该方案在本文检验中达到93．75％的预报准确率．     

FY-3A卫星与NOAA系列卫星高能带电粒子实测结果的比较

FY-3A卫星是运行于830 km高度的太阳同步轨道气象卫星, 其搭载的空间环境监测器可观测3~300 MeV的高能质子和0.15~5.70 MeV的高能电子. FY-3A卫星在轨工作期间, 太阳活动处于由谷年向峰年过渡期, 空间环境非常平静, 探测结果显示3~300 MeV的高能质子分布主要集中在南大西洋辐射带异常区, 0.15~5.70 MeV的高能电子分布区域除南大西洋异常区外, 还分布在南北两极高纬区域. FY-3A与NOAA卫星测量结果反映出带电粒子强度及分布区域随投掷角变化的空间各向异性特征. 本文在充分考虑了带电粒子时间、空间分布差异以及比对探测器之间自身设计差异的前提下, 经过归一化处理后, 首次对两颗卫星同期探测结果进行相关性分析, 验证了两颗卫星相同时空条件下高能带电粒子通量分布的一致性; 说明FY-3A空间环境监测器不仅具备空间带电粒子辐射监测能力, 且探测结果有效可靠, 可用作辐射带环境数据源的组成部分, 为发展新的模型, 深入研究辐射带高能粒子的分布、起源和传输等提供新的观测依据.      

太阳质子通量模型研究

太阳质子事件对航天活动构成重要威胁, 预测一定时期内太阳质子通量对航天器抗辐射加固设计有重要的指导意义. 在第20至23太阳活动周的太阳质子事件数据统计分析的基础上, 建立了一个针对 E>10 MeV和 E>30 MeV太阳质子通量的新模型. 新模型与目前航天工程中常用的JPL模型相比较, 引入了太阳活动性对质子事件发生概率的影响因素, 能够评估不同太阳活动水平下的质子通量, 其结果更符合质子事件的分布特征.      

Large ground level events in solar cycle 22 and some peculiarities of relativistic proton acceleration.

Some of the Ground Level Enhancements of Solar Cosmic Rays (SCR) recorded by neutron monitors during solar cycle 22 are analyzed. The events appeared in series, and their occurrence rate in 1989-1991 was a factor of 4 larger than the average value (approximately 1/yr) for the total observation interval (since 1942). The events of Sept. 29 and Oct. 24, 1989 proved to be the more intensive. The analyzed events show no peculiarities as to the distribution of the T1/2 parameter, whereas the shape of the profile of some events is notable for a two peak structure. The latter implies the possibility of a two component SCR ejection from two different sources in the solar atmosphere. For the event of Sep. 29 we have estimated the ejection rigidity spectrum of protons to be Dsolar (R) = (1-2) 10(32)R(-2.9) Gv-1 at R > or = 1 Gv. As to its proton flux, this event proved to be by 1-2 orders less intensive than the well known event of Feb. 23 1956.     

Angular distributions of energetic charged particles observed with HELIOS-1 and -2 between 0.3 amd 1 AU and their relevance to manned interplanetary space missions.

The University of Kiel Cosmic Ray Instrument on board the solar probes HELIOS-1 and -2 measured angular distributions of electrons, protons, and heavier nuclei between 0.3 and 1 AU over one complete solar cycle between 1974 and 1986. Anisotropies are observed mainly during the rising phase of solar particle events or close to the passage of certain interplanetary shocks. The anisotropies are presented as proton data of energies between 27 and 37 MeV. The dependence of the anisotropies on particle energy and distance from the sun is provided based on diffusive propagation in interplanetary space. Strong anisotropies could provide a chance of efficient shielding of the passenger compartment by moving heavier parts of the spacecraft structure into the direction of the highest flux. A reduction of the total radiation dose by less than a factor of 2 might be achievable, however, selection of quiet times for the mission reduces the radiation hazard much more.     

Ulysses charged particle measurements between 1 and 5 AU from the sun.

Proton fluxes obtained by two instruments carried on the ESA/NASA Ulysses spacecraft are reported for the period from launch in October 1990 till Jupiter encounter in February 1992. Proton energy ranges are 24-59, 71-99, 130-320, 320-2100 and > 2100 MeV. The Sun was very active during this period, the events of March 1991 being some of the largest of the solar cycle. The relationship between events on the Sun and the observed proton flux is discussed.     

Energy content of accelerated electrons and ions in intense solar flares

The energy content of nonthermal particles in solar flares is shared between accelerated electrons and ions. It isimportant for understanding the particle acceleration mechanism in solar flares. Yohkoh observed a few intense flares which produced both strong gamma-ray lines and electron bremsstrahlung continuum. We analyze energy spectra of X-class solar flares on October 27, 1991(X6.1), November 6, 1997 (X9.4), July 14, 2000 (X5.7) and November 24, 2000 (X2.3). The accelerated electron and proton spectra are derived from a spectral analysis of their high-energy photon emission and the energy contents in >1 MeV electrons and >10 MeV protons are estimated to be 6×l0²⁸ – 4×10³⁰ and 2×10²⁸ – 5×10²⁹ erg, respectively. We study the flare to flare variation in the energy content of >1 MeV electrons and >10 MeV protons for the four Yohkoh gamma-ray flares. Ratios of >1 MeV electron energy content to >10 MeV proton energy content are roughly within an order of magnitude.     

利用质子强度变化对太阳质子事件进行短期预报方法初步研究

采用GOSE-10卫星4～9 MeV(P2),9～15 MeV(P3),15～40 MeV(P4),40～80 MeV(P5)能段上的质子通量数据,结合质子能谱,对太阳质子事件发生前各能谱参数的变化特征进行分析,详细介绍利用能谱参数的变化特征及能量E>10 MeV的质子通量数据对太阳质子事件进行预报的新方法,并运用这种方法对2002-2006年期间太阳质子事件进行了预报.预报结果显示,预报提前量最多达到100 h以上,对质子事件的报准率达97.5%,预报方法具备一定的有效性和实用性.      

A comparison of two different types of geosynchronous satellite measurements during the 1989 solar proton events.

The proton telescope aboard the GOES-7 satellite continuously records the proton flux at geosynchronous orbit, and therefore provides a direct measurement of the energetic protons arriving during solar energetic particle (SEP) events. Microelectronic devices are susceptible to single event upset (SEU) caused by both energetic protons and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) ions. Some devices are so sensitive that their upsets can be used as a dosimetric indicator of a high fluence of particles. The 93L422 1K SRAM is one such device. Eight of them are on the TDRS-1 satellite in geosynchronous orbit, and collectively they had been experiencing 1-2 upset/day due to the GCR background. During the large SEP events of 1989 the upset rate increased dramatically, up to about 250 for the week of 19 Oct, due to the arrival of the SEP protons. Using the GOES proton spectra, the proton-induced SEU cross section curve for the 93L422 and the shielding distribution around the 93L422, the calculated upsets based on the GOES satellite data compared well against the log of measured upsets on TDRS-1.     

A first step towards proton flux forecasting

We present a preliminary version of a potential tool for real time proton flux prediction which provides proton flux profiles and cumulative fluence profiles at 0.5 and 2 MeV of solar energetic particle events, from their onset up to the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the spacecraft position (located at 1 or 0.4 AU). Based on the proton transportation model by Lario et al. [Lario, D., Sanahuja, B., Heras, A.M. Energetic particle events: efficiency of interplanetary shocks as 50 keV E < 100 MeV proton accelerators. Astrophys. J. 509, 415–434, 1998] and the magnetohydrodynamic shock propagation model of Wu et al. [Wu, S.T., Dryer, M., Han, S.M. Non-planar MHD model for solar flare-generated disturbances in the Heliospheric equatorial plane. Sol. Phys. 84, 395–418, 1983], we have generated a database containing “synthetic” profiles of the proton fluxes and cumulative fluences of 384 solar energetic particle events. We are currently validating the applicability of this code for space weather forecasting by comparing the resulting “synthetic” flux profiles with those of several real events.