太阳X射线耀斑活动区的一些特征

对ISEE-3人造卫星在1980年5月—1981年8月中,观测到的48个X射线耀斑进行了分析,发现其中有1/3是在6个活动区中重复爆发的.研究这部分X射线耀斑的物理性质与所在活动区的黑子面积、活动区类型及磁结构的关系,得到了一些结果:(1)发生在同一活动区中的X射线耀斑,其硬X射线峰值积分流量及谱硬度与活动区黑子面积成正相关;(2)多次爆发X射线耀斑的活动区全部具有δ型磁结构;(3)发生在不同活动区中的X射线耀斑,其物理特征与所在活动区的面积大小无明显关系.由此可以认为,活动区磁场梯度的大小,亦即活动区电流的大小,在爆发耀斑的过程中具有决定性作用.此外,还用电流环模型从理论上讨论了上述特征.     

1986年2月太阳的高活动I活动区4711的演化和特征

本文使用太阳黑子、磁场、Hα色球、10.7cm射电及软X射线流量等观测资料,对太阳活动谷期的高活动区4711(SESC编号)从光球、色球和日冕三个方面做了综述.指出该活动区演化过程的特征是:(1)黑子群在主要发展阶段呈一个紧密的结构复杂的强磁区;(2)两次大的太阳爆发均发生在黑子群面积衰减阶段的初期;(3)黑子群的转动可能是活动区日冕加热和耀斑活动的主要供能机制;(4)色球暗条的频繁活动是爆发的先兆;(5) 10.7cm射电辐射和软X射线辐射的逐日流量有彼此不重合的双峰.      

1996-2008年期间活动区与耀斑活动的特征分析

在1996—2008年期间,可见日面共出现3067个活动区,其中活动区面积S满足10μh≤S≤90μh(μh为太阳半球面积的百万分之一)的活动区数量占活动区总数的58.52%,100μh≤S≤490μh的活动区数量占活动区总数的31.43%,而S≥500μh的活动区数量仅约占活动区总数的6%,S≥1000μh的活动区数量仅约占活动区总数的1%,面积为0的活动区约占活动区总数的4%.1996—2008年期间,除面积低于50μh的活动区外,不同面积活动区的数量占该年活动区总数比例的最大值通常都在太阳活动峰年之后,即相对太阳黑子数平滑月均值都有一定的延迟.在1997—2008年期间,至少能够产生一个A级耀斑的活动区数量为1408个,而在此期间,共产生了7706个C级耀斑、1141个M级耀斑和110个X级耀斑.C级耀斑在1~8A波段流量的积分值为22.711 J·m~(-2),M级耀斑在1~8 A波段流量的积分值为29.443 J·m~(-2),X级耀斑在1~8 A波段流量的积分值为36.178 J·m~(-2).第23太阳活动周期间,南半球的耀斑活动比北半球强.     

太阳质子耀斑X射线辐射特征及质子事件警报

太阳质子耀斑X射线辐射特征的研究, 为太阳质子事件的警报提供一个重要的途径和方法。本文分析了第21周太阳活动峰年(1977—1986)期间质子耀斑和相应的GOES和SMM卫星观测的X射线辐射资料, 结果表明:大部分质子耀斑的硬X射线峰值流量F_HX≥104s/c;积分流量F₀≥106counts;硬X射线辐射到达峰值时间T_R≥100s;持续时间T_D≥103s;X光子最高能量E_x≥300keV;平均能谱指数√r≤3.5;高能时延T_L≥10s。利用这些X射线暴的特征参数, 对第21周峰年大质子事件作警报检验, 结果是:报准率为94％, 虚报率为40％。      

硬X射线爆发的Hα特征

对50个Ha耀斑检查表明:1.有硬X射线爆发(HXRBS)的耀斑,其Ha的线宽均超过4?,HXRBS对应的Ha耀斑核(在Ha+2?处,J_耀斑核/I_背景≥1.15)至少有两个,它们分处于磁场正负极性区;2.Ha耀斑开始较早, Ha耀斑核(kernel)的强度峰落后HXRBS的峰(spike)数秒,峰与峰之间有很好的对应关系; 3.Ha耀斑核,当HXRBS峰值计数率大于1000时,掩盖黑子半影,峰值计数率小于200时,不掩盖黑子半影。      

第21～24太阳周4类空间天气事件爆发特征统计分析

对第21～24太阳周不同等级的太阳X射线耀斑事件、太阳质子事件、地磁暴事件及高能电子增强事件的爆发频次特征进行统计,结果表明:太阳周耀斑爆发的总数量与该太阳周的黑子数峰值呈正比,耀斑总数、X级耀斑事件数与峰值的相关系数分别为0.974,0.997;太阳质子事件主要发生在峰年前后1～2年,约占总发生次数的80%,峰值通量大于10pfu （1 pfu=1 cm-2·sr-1·s-1）的质子事件中,84%伴有耀斑爆发,并且主要伴随M或X级耀斑,少量伴随C级耀斑,峰值通量大于1000pfu的质子事件中,98%伴随M或X级耀斑,并且以X级耀斑为主;第21,22,23和24太阳周发生地磁暴最频繁的时间分别在1982,1991,2003年和2015年,分别滞后黑子数峰值时间3年、2年、2年和1年;72%的高能电子增强事件发生在太阳周下降期,24%的高能电子增强事件发生在太阳周上升期.      

1986年2月4日AR4711拱形双带黑子暗条系激活的分析

根据1986-02-04AR47ll由观测所确定的物理参数和特征值,采用电动力学方法数值计算该活动区中两个拱形黑子暗条在大耀斑爆发前的动力学演化过程.结果表明:(1)以旋涡黑子为标志的光球物质旋转运动和以暗条下方磁力线强剪切为特征的剪切运动引起暗条电流增加和背景磁场变化,电流和磁场的相互作用导致暗条向上运动,大耀斑爆发前暗条的上升速度达26km／S;(2)背景场位形对暗条整体动力学行为有很大影响,AR47ll在7×104km高度范围内场强随高度似乎按指数规律衰减.      

太阳耀斑显著的热和非热事件的统计特征

本文利用GOES卫星和SMM卫星软、硬X射线耀斑观测资料,分析耀斑中软、硬X射线辐射流量的分布,发现太阳耀斑存在着显著的热事件(PT事件)和显著的非热事件(PNT事件),它们主要特征是:(1)PT事件为缓变型耀斑,PNT事件为脉冲型耀斑;(2)PT事件的硬X射线谱较软,PNT事件能谱较硬;(3)PNT事件非热能量释放速率比PT事件快3—10倍;(4)耀斑发展趋缓慢,PT事件中软X射线峰值流量越大;(5)耀斑中PNT事件约占60％,PT事件约占40％.最后定性讨论了产生PT和PNT事件的可能机制.      

基于PCA方法对太阳活动区主要参量的分析

太阳耀斑与太阳质子事件的发生通常与太阳活动区存在非常密切的关系, 对这种关系的深入分析有助于太阳耀斑和太阳质子事件预报模型的建立. 本文利用主成分分析(Principal Component Analysis, PCA)方法对1997-2010年太阳质子事件所在活动区的主要参量进行分析, 选取的参量包括黑子磁分类、 McIntosh分类、太阳黑子群面积、10.7 cm射电流量、耀斑指数、质子耀斑位置和软X射线耀斑强度. 结果得到81个太阳活动主成分得分值排序(得分值代表每个事件的强弱), 与太阳质子事件峰值流量、太阳黑子年均值以及10.7 cm射电流量年均值的对比显示相似度非常高, 表明主成分得分值一定程度上可以反映太阳活动的强弱规律.      

X射线耀斑的分析及其与Ha耀斑的比较

本文利用SMM卫星的X射线资料,以及云南天文台的光学观测资料,分析了1980年7月14日的3B级耀斑.求得X射线耀斑能谱随时间的变化;计算了耀斑爆发时加速的电子总数和电子的平均能量;并测量和比较了Hα耀斑和X射线爆源的位置.结果表明:(1)硬X射线爆由高能非热电子束引起;(2)软X射线爆基本上由高温等离子体的热韧致辐射所产生,但必须考虑非热电子轫致辐射的贡献;(3)确定X射线爆源的高度,有赖于耀斑模型及活动区磁场位形.所得结果支持耀斑过程的新浮磁流模型(EMF模型).     

Application of support vector machine combined with K-nearest neighbors in solar flare and solar proton events forecasting

The support vector machine (SVM) combined with K-nearest neighbors (KNN), called the SVM-KNN method, is new classing algorithm that take the advantages of the SVM and KNN. This method is applied to the forecasting models for solar flares and proton events. For the solar flare forecasting model, the sunspot area, the sunspot magnetic class, and the McIntosh class of sunspot group and 10 cm solar radio flux are chosen as inputs; for the solar proton event forecasting model, the inputs include the longitude of active regions, the flux of soft X-ray, and those for the solar flare forecasting model. Detailed tests are implemented for both of the proposed forecasting models, in which the SVM-KNN and the SVM methods are compared. The testing results demonstrate that the SVM-KNN method provide a higher forecasting accuracy in contrast to the SVM. It also gives an increased rate of ‘Low’ prediction at the same time. The ‘Low’ prediction means occurrence of solar flares or proton events with predictions of non-occurrence. This method show promise for forecasting models of solar flare and proton events.     

A 22-year cycle in sunspot activity

We study the recently presented group sunspot number series and show that a persistent 22-year periodicity exists in sunspot activity throughout the entire period of about 400 years of direct sunspot observations. The amplitude of this periodicity in total cycle intensity is about 20% of the present intensity level. A 22-year periodicity in sunspot activity is naturally produced by the 22-year magnetic dynamo cycle in the presence of a relic magnetic field. Accordingly, a persistent 22-year periodicity in sunspot activity gives strong evidence for the existence of such a relic magnetic field in the Sun. The stable phase and the roughly constant amplitude of this periodicity during times of very different sunspot activity level strongly support this interpretation.     

The CME-productivity associated with flares from two active regions

We report on two flare-productive adjacent active regions (ARs), with different levels of coronal mass ejection (CME) association. AR 10039 and AR 10044 produced strong X-ray flares during their disk passages. We examined the CME association rate of X-ray flares and found it to be different between the two ARs. AR 10039 was CME-rich with 72% association with flares, while AR 10044 was CME-poor with an association rate of only 14%. CMEs from the CME-rich AR were faster and wider than the ones from the CME-poor AR. The flare activity of AR 10044 was temporally concentrated over a short interval and spatially localized over a compact area between the major sun spots. We suggest that different pre-eruption evolution and magnetic configuration in the two regions might have contributed to the difference between the two ARs.     

Tilts and polarity separation in the sunspot groups and active regions at the ascending and descending phases of the cycle 23

The Solar Feature Catalogues for sunspots and active regions measured with SOHO/MDI instrument and Ca II K3 spectroheliograph of the Paris-Meudon Observatory are analyzed with the automated classification technique for sunspot groups and active region polarities. We report the first classification results for daily variations of tilt angles (normal and trigonometric ones) in sunspot groups (SG) and active (AR) regions in the cycle 23. The average normal tilts are presented for every year at the ascending and descending phases of the cycle 23 which are similar to those deduced by other authors for the cycles 19–22. The normal tilts of both the sunspot groups and active regions are shown to increase in the ascending phase and a decrease in the descending phase. Similar to SG and AR areas, the trigonometric tilts are shown to have the noticeable North–South asymmetry with the Southern hemisphere dominant in the selected ascending and descending periods. The normal tilt variations with latitude follow Joy’s law revealing a periodicity along the meridian of about 10° and reaching the maximum of 14° at the latitude of about 32° corresponding to the top of the ‘royal zone’ where the sunspots appear. The variations of polarity separation with a latitude are in an anti-phase with those of the tilts reaching a maximum at the latitude of 35° and showing a small positive separation for the groups/active regions in a vicinity of the average tilts ±40°. The ratio R of the polarity separation to the trigonometric tilt fits the linear function of a latitude φ as R = −0.0213φ − 0.1245 confirming positive separation for the polarities of active regions with the average tilts, or the dominance of activity in the Southern hemisphere activity, for the selected period of observations.     

Morphological studies on ionospheric VHF scintillations over an Indian low latitude station during a solar cycle period (2001–2010)

The amplitude scintillations data recorded at 244 MHz from the geostationary satellite, FLEETSAT (73°E) at a low latitude station, Waltair (17.7°N, 83.3°E) during the ten year period of high to low solar activity from 2001 to 2010 is considered to study the occurrence characteristics of the VHF scintillations. A close association between the intense scintillations on VHF signals during pre-midnight hours, associated with range type of spread-F on ionograms and a relatively weak and slow fading scintillations during post-midnight hours associated with frequency type of spread-F is observed during the relatively high sunspot years from 2001 to 2004, whereas during the low sunspot years from 2005 to 2010 the scintillation activity as well as spread-F activity are found to be minimum. During both the high and low sunspot years, it is observed that the maximum scintillation activity occurs during equinoctial months followed by winter with the minimum occurrence during summer months. The annual mean percentage occurrence of scintillations is found to be clearly associated with the variations in the annual mean sunspot number. The nocturnal variations in the occurrence of scintillations show the onset of scintillation activity starts from 19:00 h LT with maximum of occurrence around 21:00 h LT. A clear semiannual variation in the occurrence of scintillations is observed during pre-midnight hours with two peaks in equinoctial months of March/April and September/October. The number of scintillation patches observed is found to be more during pre-midnight hours compared to those during post-midnight hours. The most probable scintillation patch duration lies around 30 min. Further, it is also found that the number of scintillation patches with durations of 60 min and more decreases with the increase in the patch duration. It is also observed in general that the scintillation activity is inhibited during geomagnetic disturbed days.     

Relationship between daily variation of cosmogenic nuclide Be-7 concentration in atmosphere and solar activities

Daily Be-7 concentrations in air at the height of 15 m are continuously observed at 38°15.2′N, 140°20.9′E, between 2000 and 2001. The average concentration and the relative standard deviation were 4.0 mBq/m³ and 50% in 2000–2001, respectively. The Be-7 concentrations increased 2.5% with the decrease in the sunspot numbers by 6.7% for the term of two years. From the power spectral analysis, the periodicity of 26 days is shown for the daily Be-7 concentrations. The folding analysis indicates that the time variation of the Be-7 concentration is similar to that of the ground-based neutron counting rate, and the phase delay for the minimum portion of Be-7 concentration was roughly 8 days to the maximum sunspot number. These results indicate that the Be-7 concentrations in the air at ground level have 26 day periodicity as a component of time variations and the time variation is caused by the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays, which corresponds to the variation of the sunspot number due to the rotation of the sun.     

The statistical properties of coronal mass ejections during 1979–1981

The Solwind coronagraph on the P78-1 earth-orbiting satellite has been monitoring the Sun routinely at 10-minute intervals during the 5-year interval from April, 1979 to the present. In a statistical analysis of about 1000 mass ejections observed through the end of 1981, we find an average occurrence rate of 1.8 mass ejections per day. Histograms of speed, central latitude, angular span, brightness, and other parameters have been constructed, and properties such as shape classification have been tabulated. These characteristics are summarized for these years near sunspot maximum. The average speed and mass estimate are found to be similar to those found at the declining phase of the previous sunspot cycle. The angular span and central latitude distributions are quite different than seen during the declining phase, and are very dependent upon structural class. The fluctuations in the occurrence rate of CMEs does not seem to match the fluctuations in the sunspot number. There is a tendency for high speed CMEs to occur more frequently in 1981 than in 1980, and more frequently in 1980 than in 1979.