太阳风扰动对极光电急流和环电流指数的影响

利用WIND卫星的太阳风观测数据和地磁活动指数, 研究了太阳风扰动对环电流SYM-H指数, 西向极光电急流AL指数和东向极光电急流AU指数的影响. 结果表明, 太阳风动压增长和减少能够同步或延迟引起地磁活动指数的强烈扰动, 其包括环电流指数的上升, 西向极光电急流指数的下降和东向极光电急流指数的上升. 太阳风动压的突然剧烈增加还能够触发超级亚暴和大磁暴. 太阳风动压脉冲引起的地磁效应具有复杂的表现形式, 这说明太阳风动压脉冲的地磁效应不仅与太阳风动压脉冲大小和持续时间有关, 还与磁层本身所处的状态有关. 时间尺度较长, 消耗能量较大的磁暴只有大的持续时间较长的太阳风动压脉冲才能激发.      

大尺度场向电流的控制因素

将ＩＳＥＥ－１和ＩＳＥＥ－２飞般测量的地球内磁层场向电流作为行星际磁场与极区地磁活动水平（由ＡＬ表征）的函数。发现大约７５％的场向电流发生在行星际磁场南向时,其余２５％发生在行星际磁场由南向转到北向的半小时内。而且,发生在ＡＬ〈－１５０ｎＴ的场向电流也大约是７５％。场向电流的强度和密度随行星际磁场南向分量及ＡＬ的负值增加而增大。由此而得出结论,内磁层场向电流的产生主要是由行星际磁场控制的,是太阳风     

From solar nanoflares to stellar giant flares: Scaling laws and non-implications for coronal heating

In this study we explore physical scaling laws applied to solar nanoflares, microflares, and large flares, as well as to stellar giant flares. Solar flare phenomena exhibit a fractal volume scaling, V(L)  L^1.9, with L being the flare loop length scale, which explains the observed correlation between the total emission measure EM_p and flare peak temperature T_p in both solar and stellar flares. However, the detected stellar flares have higher emission measures EM_p than solar flares at the same flare peak temperature T_p, which can be explained by a higher electron density that is caused by shorter heating scale height ratios s_H/L ≈ 0.04–0.1. Using these scaling laws we calculate the total radiated flare energies E_X and thermal flare energies E_T and find that the total counts C are a good proxy for both parameters. Comparing the energies of solar and stellar flares we find that even the smallest observed stellar flares exceed the largest solar flares, and thus their observed frequency distributions are hypothetically affected by an upper cutoff caused by the maximum active region size limit. The powerlaw slopes fitted near the upper cutoff can then not reliably be extrapolated to the microflare regime to evaluate their contribution to coronal heating.     

Interplanetary shocks and geomagnetic activity during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996)

Plasma and magnetic field parameter variations through fast forward interplanetary shocks were correlated with the peak geomagnetic activity index Dst in a period from 0 to 3 days after the shock, during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996). Solar wind speed (V) and total magnetic field (B_t) were the parameters with higher correlations with peak Dst index. The correlation coefficients were higher during solar minimum (r² = 56% for V and 39% for B_t) than during solar maximum (r² = 15% for V and 12% for B_t). A statistical distribution of geomagnetic activity levels following interplanetary shocks was obtained. It was observed that during solar maximum, 36% and 28% of interplanetary shocks were followed by intense (Dst  −100 nT) and moderate (−50  Dst < −100 nT) geomagnetic activity, whereas during solar minimum 13% and 33% of the shocks were followed by intense and moderate geomagnetic activity. It can be concluded that the upstream/downstream variations of V and B_t through the shocks were the parameters better correlated with geomagnetic activity level, and during solar maximum a higher relative number of interplanetary shocks can be followed by intense geomagnetic activity than during solar minimum. One can extrapolate, for forecasting goals, that during a whole solar cycle a shock has a probability of around 50% to be followed by intense/moderate geomagnetic activity.     

Large geomagnetic storms of extreme solar event periods in solar cycle 23

During extreme solar events such as big flares or/and energetic coronal mass ejections (CMEs) high energy particles are accelerated by the shocks formed in front of fast interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The ICMEs (and their sheaths) also give rise to large geomagnetic storms which have significant effects on the Earth’s environment and human life. Around 14 solar cosmic ray ground level enhancement (GLE) events in solar cycle 23 we examined the cosmic ray variation, solar wind speed, ions density, interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic disturbance storm time index (D_st). We found that all but one of GLEs are always followed by a geomagnetic storm with D_st  −50 nT within 1–5 days later. Most(10/14) geomagnetic storms have D_st index  −100  nT therefore generally belong to strong geomagnetic storms. This suggests that GLE event prediction of geomagnetic storms is 93% for moderate storms and 71% for large storms when geomagnetic storms preceded by GLEs. All D_st depressions are associated with cosmic ray decreases which occur nearly simultaneously with geomagnetic storms. We also investigated the interplanetary plasma features. Most geomagnetic storm correspond significant periods of southward B_z and in close to 80% of the cases that the B_z was first northward then turning southward after storm sudden commencement (SSC). Plasma flow speed, ion number density and interplanetary plasma temperature near 1 AU also have a peak at interplanetary shock arrival. Solar cause and energetic particle signatures of large geomagnetic storms and a possible prediction scheme are discussed.     

Solar wind dependence of the Pc1 wave activity

There are a host of factors influencing the excitation of Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations, which are ULF waves in the frequency range between 0.2 and 5 Hz. We have studied carefully the dependence of the pearl-type Pc1 activity at Sodankylä, Finland (L = 5.1) on the plasma density N in front of the magnetosphere, the bulk velocity V of the solar wind, and the intensity B of the IMF. The result is as follows: high values of N and reduced values of V are favorable to appearance of Pc1, whereas the dependence of Pc1 activity on B is practically absent. We also show that the probability of Pc1 occurrence decreases with the interplanetary electric field, and increases with solar wind impact pressure and with the plasma to magnetic pressure ratio “beta”.     

Force-free magnetic field in a cylindrical flux rope without a constant alpha

It is generally assumed that magnetic fields inside interplanetary magnetic clouds and flux ropes in the solar photosphere are force-free. In order to model such fields, the solution of rot B = B is commonly used where  = const. But comparisons of this solutions with observations show significant difference. To treat this problem,we examine the solutions with .     

太阳风和地球磁层相互作用的两种可能类型

本文对太阳活动20周不同活动期间的太阳风参数与地磁活动性指数分别进行了相关分析,并进一步对太阳活动极大和极小年分别对B_z和太阳风参数V、T、N的时均值日方差作了分析比较。结果指出,除目前普遍认为的IMF与地磁场重联导致的磁扰外,还有一类与B_z无关,而是由高温、高速、热不均匀太阳风等离子体导致的地磁扰动类型。      

Storm-time formation of a relativistic electron belt and some relevant phenomena in other magnetospheric plasma domains

An empirical formula relating the strength of a storm given by its |Dst|_max with the L-coordinate of the peak of storm-injected relativistic electrons is one of a few well-confirmed quantitative relations found in the magneto-spheric physics. We successively extended a dataset of the formula’s basic storms with several events of high Dst-amplitude up to the highest observed |Dst|_max = 600 nT. Possible applying of the formula to the predicting of the ring-current plasma-pressure distribution and the lowest westward electrojet position for a storm are discussed. We have also analyzed the 2000–2001 years’ data on relativistic electrons from our instruments installed on EXPRESS-A (geosynchronous orbit; E_e = 0.8–6 MeV), Molniya-3 (h = 500 × 40 000 km, i = 63°; E_e = 0.8–5.5 MeV) and GLONASS (h = 20 000 km, i = 64°; E_e  l MeV) along with other correlated measurements: GOES series (E_e > 2 MeV), geomagnetic indices (Dst, AE, AL) and interplanetary parameters (solar wind, IMF). The goal is to investigate which outer conditions are most responsible for the high/low output of the storm-injected relativistic electrons. For the geosynchronous orbit, two factors are found as the necessary condition of the highest electron output: high and long-lasting substorm activity on a storm recovery phase and high velocity of solar wind. On the contrary, extremely low substorm activity surely observed during whole the storm recovery phase constitutes a sufficient condition of the non-increased after-storm electron intensity. For the first time found cases of the increased after-storm electron intensity observed at the inner L-shells with no simultaneously seen increase in the geosynchronous distances are presented.     

Periodic Variations of Drag Coefficient for the ANDE Spherical Satellites During its Lifetime

A drag coefficient (C_D) inversion method is introduced to study the variations of the drag coefficient for orbital satellites with spherical geometry. Drag coefficients of the four micro satellites in the Atmospheric Neutral Density Experiment (ANDE) are compiled out with this new method. The Lomb-Scargle Periodgram (LSP) analysis of the four ANDE satellites' C_D series has shown that there are obvious 5, 7, 9, and 27 days' period in those data. Interesting results are found through comparing the LSP analysis with series of the daily solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (F_10.7 index), the Ap index, and the daily averaged solar wind speed at 1AU. All series in the same time interval have an obvious period of about 27 days, which has already been explained as the association with the 27 days' solar rotation. The oscillating periods less than 27 days are found in series of C_D, Ap and solar wind speed at 1AU, e.g., the 5, 7, 9 days period. However, these short periods disappeared in the time series of F_10.7 index. The same periodicities of 5, 7, 9 days in Ap and solar wind are presented at the same time interval during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. While in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, these short oscillations are not so obvious as that in the declining phase of solar cycle 23. These results provide definite evidence that the C_D variations with period of 5, 7 and 9 days are produced by a combination of space weather effects caused by the solar wind and geomagnetic activity.      

Statistical characteristics of low latitude Pc4s: Influence of solar wind and IMF parameters

Pc4 signatures for the year 2013, extracted from geomagnetic north–south and east–west components of induction coil magnetometer (LEMI 30) from low latitude station Desalpar (DSP), operated by Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), India have been investigated vis-à-vis the prevalent interplanetary parameters (IMF) as well as the geomagnetic activity indices. A clear dominance of Pc4-5 (467 events) over Pc3 (17 events) is observed. Local time variation of Pc4 shows a peak in the noon sector in both X and Y components. Our investigations show that the dominant peak frequency is 10 mHz at low latitude region. Correlations with solar wind and IMF parameters illustrate highest occurrence of Pc4 for a solar wind speed of 300–400 km/s and average IMF B field of 3–6 nT. The amplitude of Pc4s at DSP shows an increase with increasing solar wind speed, plasma density, solar wind dynamic pressure and average B field which is also reflected in the trend of frequency variation of these pulsations. We report that IMF clock angle at low latitude does not have influence on Pc4 occurrence. Based on the characteristics of these events, detected in latitudinally distributed stations from low and mid-latitudes from northern and southern hemisphere, we infer that modes were compressional, which could be driven by K-H instability or solar wind dynamic pressure, as compressional modes can propagate to low latitude with little attenuation.     

利用行星际监测数据进行地磁暴预报

利用全连接神经网络方法应用于地磁Dst指数的预报中.对ACE卫星探测的太阳风和行星际磁场及其变化对未来几小时的Dst指数的影响进行了统计分析,发现在这些行星际实测参数中,对Dst指数作用较为明显的是太阳风速度、太阳风质子密度和行星际磁场南向分量,同时,当前Dst指数实测值对今后几小时的Dst指数已有很强的制约作用.在统计分析的基础上,建立了全连接神经网络预报模型.由于采用了全连接神经网络结构,模式能够反映出太阳风、行星际磁场等参数与地磁Dst指数参数的复杂联系,可以自动建立输入参量的最佳组合方式,提高了预报精度.通过利用大量实测数据对神经网络模式进行训练,最终建立了利用优选的ACE卫星行星际监测数据提前2 h对Dst指数进行预报.通过检测,预报的误差为14.3%.      

Prediction tests by using “ISF” method for the geomagnetic disturbances

A so-called “ISF” prediction method for geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar wind storms blowing to the Earth is suggested. The method is based on a combined approach of solar activity, interplanetary scintillation (I) and geomagnetic disturbance observations during the period 1966–1982 together with the dynamics of solar wind storm propagation (S) and fuzzy mathematics (F). It has been used for prediction tests for 37 geomagnetic disturbance events during the descending solar activity phase 1984–1985, and was presented in 33rd COSPAR conference. Here, it has been improved by consideration of the three dimensional propagation characteristics of each event, the search for the best radio source and the influence of the southward components of interplanetary magnetic fields on the geomagnetic disturbances. It is used for prediction tests for 24 larger geomagnetic disturbance events that produced space anomalies during the period 1980–1999. The main results are: (1) for the onset time of the geomagnetic disturbance, the relative error between the observation, T_obs, and the prediction, T_pred, ΔT_pred/T_obs  10% for 45.8% of all events, 30% for 78.3% and >30% for only 21.7%; (2) for the magnetic disturbance magnitude, the relative error between the observation, ∑K_p,obs, and the prediction, ∑K_p,pred, Δ∑K_p,pred/∑K_p,obs  10% for 41.6% of all events, 30% for 79% and 45% for 100%. This shows that the prediction method described here has encouraging prospects for improving predictions of large geomagnetic disturbances in space weather events.     

地球磁场对太阳风扰动响应的研究

分别对行星际激波、太阳风动压增大事件和减小事件的地球磁场响应进行了比较. 分析结果表明, 同步轨道磁场对太阳风扰动在向阳面产生较强的正响应, 在背阳面 响应较弱且有时会出现负响应, 地磁指数SYM-H对太阳风扰动的响应为正响应. 同时还得出, 向阳侧同步轨道磁场响应幅度d Bz与地磁指数响应幅度d SYM-H、上下游动压均方差均具有较好的相关性. 地磁指数响应幅度与同步轨道磁场响应幅度相关关系在激波和动压增大事件中具有一致性, 动压减小事件出 现明显差异, 这说明激波和动压增大事件在影响地球磁场方面具有某种共性.      

行星际磁场北向分量触发磁层扰动的可能性

本文用典型事件和统计分析论证了行星际磁场北向分量触发地磁扰动的可能性.给出了行星际电场E_y分量对磁层大尺度对流电场E_M的耦合系数.从耦合方程出发讨论了磁层对太阳风作用的响应,证明磁层不是起半波整流器作用,从而表明经典的重联理论应有所修改.      

Statistical properties of the IMF clock angle in the solar wind with northward and southward interplanetary magnetic field based on ACE observation from 1998 to 2009: Dependence on the temporal scale of the solar wind

Utilizing ACE satellite observations from 1998 to 2009, we performed the elaborate study on the properties of the clock angle θ_CA (arctan(By/Bz) (?90° to 90°) of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) in the solar wind at 1?AU. The solar wind with northward IMF (NW-IMF) and southward IMF (SW-IMF) are analyzed, independently. Statistical analysis shows that the solar wind with SW-IMF and NW-IMF has similar properties in general, including their durations, the IMF Bz and By components, and the IMF θ_CA. Then, the solar wind with NW-IMF (SW-IMF) is classified into five different temporal scales according to the duration of the NW-IMF (SW-IMF), i.e., very-short wind of 10–30?min, short-scale wind of 0.5–1?h, moderate-scale wind of 1–3?h, long-scale wind of 3–5?h, and super-long wind >5?h. Our analysis reveals that the IMF θ_CA has a distinct decrease with increase of the temporal scale of the solar wind. Next, the solar wind is classified into two groups, i.e., the high-speed solar wind (>450?km/s) and the low-speed solar wind (<450?km/s). Our analysis indicates that the IMF θ_CA depends highly on the solar wind speed. Statistically, high-speed solar wind tends to have larger IMF θ_CA than low-speed solar wind. The evolutions of the solar wind and IMF with the solar activity are further studied, revealing no clear solar variation of the IMF θ_CA. Finally, we analyze the monthly variation of the IMF θ_CA. Superposed epoch result strongly suggests the seasonal variation of the IMF θ_CA.     

Solar polar magnetic field dependency of geomagnetic activity semiannual variation indicated in the Aa index

Three major hypotheses have been proposed to explain the well-known semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity, maxima at equinoxes and minima at solstices. This study examined whether the seasonal variation of equinoctial geomagnetic activity is different in periods of opposite solar magnetic polarity in order to understand the contribution of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) in the Sun-Earth connection. Solar magnetic polarity is parallel to the Earth’s polarity in solar minimum years of odd/even cycles but antiparallel in solar minimum years of even/odd cycles. The daily mean of the aa, Aa indices during each solar minimum was compared for periods when the solar magnetic polarity remained in opposite dipole conditions. The Aa index values were used for each of the three years surrounding the solar minimum years of the 14 solar cycles recorded since 1856. The Aa index reflects seasonal variation in geomagnetic activity, which is greater at the equinoxes than at the solstices. The Aa index reveals solar magnetic polarity dependency in which the geomagnetic activity is stronger in the antiparallel solar magnetic polarity condition than in the parallel one. The periodicity in semiannual variation of the Aa index is stronger in the antiparallel solar polar magnetic field period than in the parallel period. Additionally, we suggest the favorable IMF condition of the semiannual variation in geomagnetic activity. The orientation of IMF toward the Sun in spring and away from the Sun in fall mainly contributes to the semiannual variation of geomagnetic activity in both antiparallel and parallel solar minimum years.     

基于机器学习相似度算法的Kp指数预报

基于机器学习中的相似度算法,建立了在历史太阳风数据中寻找与当前太阳风特征相近事例的推荐模型,用来预报地磁Kp指数.使用1998-2019年间随机选择的120个太阳风事例作为测试数据集,该模型能够推荐得到历史上与输入太阳风造成相似地磁影响的太阳风事例,最优事例的Kp指数与实际值的均方根误差为0.79,相关系数为0.93....     

A Prediction Method for△f0F2min of a Single Station From Interplanetary Parameters Based on Statistical Study

Using 86 CME-interplanetary shock events,the correlation between the peak values of （a） the solar wind parameters(B_z,E_y,P_dyn) and the geomagnetic indices（SYM-H,ASY-H,Kp）, （b） the coupling functions（Borovsky,Akasofu,Newell） and the geomagnetic indices,（c） the solar wind parameters/coupling functions/geomagnetic indices and the ionospheric parameter(Δf₀F_2min), are investigated.The statistical results show that in group（a）,B_{z min} and SYM-H_min have the best correlation,that in group（b）,the best correlation is between the peak values of Akasofu function (A_min) and SYM-H_min,and that in group（c）,the best correlation is between K_pmax andΔf₀F_2min. Based on the statistical results,a method for predicting f₀F₂ of a single station is attempted to be set up.The input is modified B_{z min} and the outputs are SYM-H_min andΔf₀F_2min.Then 25 CME-IPS events that caused geomagnetic storms in 1998 and 2009 are used to check the prediction method. The results show that our method can be used to predict SYM-H_min andΔf₀F_2min.     

Case study of September 24–26, 1998 magnetic storm

We compute global magnetospheric parameters based upon solar wind data obtained from the WIND spacecraft upstream. Using the paraboloid magnetospheric model, calculations of the dynamic global magnetospheric current systems have been made. The solar wind dynamic pressure, the interplanetary magnetic field, the strength of the tail current, and the ring current control the polar cap and auroral oval size and location during the magnetic storm. The model calculations demonstrate that the polar cap and the auroral oval areas are mainly controlled by the tail current. The substorm onset at 0630 UT on September 25, 1998 happened near the minimum in the main phase field depression. The substorm expansion onset time is also marked by a sudden enhancement in the solar wind dynamic pressure and an enhancement in the tail current. The magnetic signatures of these two effects cancel each other, which explains why the D_st profile shows no strong time variation during the substorm. Evidence for the substorm expansion includes not only the signature in the AL index but also the strong asymmetry of the low latitude magnetic disturbances (substorm positive bay signature). Model calculations were checked by comparison with the GOES 8 and 10 magnetic field measurements.