Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere: Requirements for Future Observations

Since the publication of Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere in 1998 there has been great progress in understanding how and why cosmic rays vary in space and time. This paper discusses measurements that are needed to continue advances in relating cosmic ray variations to changes in solar and interplanetary activity and variations in the local interstellar environment. Cosmic ray acceleration and transport is an important discipline in space physics and astrophysics, but it also plays a critical role in defining the radiation environment for humans and hardware in space, and is critical to efforts to unravel the history of solar activity. Cosmic rays are measured directly by balloon-borne and space instruments, and indirectly by ground-based neutron, muon and neutrino detectors, and by measurements of cosmogenic isotopes in ice cores, tree-rings, sediments, and meteorites. The topics covered here include: what we can learn from the deep 2008–2009 solar minimum, when cosmic rays reached the highest intensities of the space era; the implications of ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C isotope archives for past and future solar activity; the effects of variations in the size of the heliosphere; opportunities provided by the Voyagers for discovering the origin of anomalous cosmic rays and measuring cosmic-ray spectra in interstellar space; and future space missions that can continue the exciting exploration of the heliosphere that has occurred over the past 50 years.     

Time-Variability in the Interstellar Boundary Conditions of the Heliosphere: Effect of the Solar Journey on the Galactic Cosmic Ray Flux at Earth

During the solar journey through galactic space, variations in the physical properties of the surrounding interstellar medium (ISM) modify the heliosphere and modulate the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) at the surface of the Earth, with consequences for the terrestrial record of cosmogenic radionuclides. One phenomenon that needs studying is the effect on cosmogenic isotope production of changing anomalous cosmic ray fluxes at Earth due to variable interstellar ionizations. The possible range of interstellar ram pressures and ionization levels in the low density solar environment generate dramatically different possible heliosphere configurations, with a wide range of particle fluxes of interstellar neutrals, their secondary products, and GCRs arriving at Earth. Simple models of the distribution and densities of ISM in the downwind direction give cloud transition timescales that can be directly compared with cosmogenic radionuclide geologic records. Both the interstellar data and cosmogenic radionuclide data are consistent with two cloud transitions, within the past 10,000 years and a second one 20,000–30,000 years ago, with large and assumption-dependent uncertainties. The geomagnetic timeline derived from cosmic ray fluxes at Earth may require adjustment to account for the disappearance of anomalous cosmic rays when the Sun is immersed in ionized gas.     

Large Scale Modulation: View From the Earth

The current knowledge and ideas, obtained from groundlevel observations and concerning the solar modulation of cosmic rays, are reviewed. The following topics are discussed: observations of the cosmic ray modulation at the Earth and main characteristics of the accumulated experimental data; manifestations of the solar magnetic cycle in cosmic rays; the effect of hysteresis and its relation to the size of the heliosphere; the rigidity spectrum of long-term cosmic ray variations; the influence of the sporadic effects on long-term modulation; long-term variations of cosmic ray anisotropy and gradients; the place of groundlevel observations in current studies of cosmic ray modulation and their future prospects. Particular consideration is given to the correlation of long-term cosmic ray variations with different solar-heliospheric parameters, and to empirical models of cosmic ray modulation. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Muon Observations

Muon observations are complementary to neutron monitor observations but there are some important differences in the two techniques. Unlike neutron monitors, muon telescope systems use coincidence techniques to obtain directional information about the arriving particle. Neutron monitor observations require simple corrections for pressure variations to compensate for the varying mass of atmospheric absorber over a site. In contrast, muon observations require additional corrections for the positive and negative temperature effects. Muon observations commenced many years before neutron monitors were constructed. Thus, muon data over a larger number of solar cycles is available to study solar modulation on anisotropies and other cosmic ray variations. The solar diurnal and semi-diurnal variations have been studied for many years. Using the techniques of Bieber and Chen it has been possible to derive the radial gradient, parallel mean-free path and symmetric latitude gradient of cosmic rays for rigidities <200 GV. The radial gradient varies with the 11-year solar activity cycle whereas the parallel mean-free path appears to vary with the 22-year solar magnetic cycle. The symmetric latitudinal gradient reverses at each solar polarity reversal. These results are in general agreement with predictions from modulation models. In undertaking these analyses the ratio of the parallel to perpendicular mean-free path must be assumed. There is strong contention in the literature about the correct value to employ but the results are sufficiently robust for this to be, at most, a minor problem. An asymmetric latitude gradient of highly variable nature has been found. These observations do not support current modulation models. Our view of the sidereal variation has undergone a revolution in recent times. Nagashima, Fujimoto and Jacklyn proposed a narrow Tail-In source anisotropy and separate Loss-Cone anisotropy as being responsible for the observed variations. A new analysis technique, more amenable to such structures, was developed by Japanese and Australian researchers. They confirmed the existence of the two anisotropies. However, they found that the Tail-In anisotropy is asymmetric and that both anisotropies had different positions from the prediction. Most 27-day modulations are observed at neutron monitor rigidities but not so readily at higher rigidities. An exception to this is the Isotropic Intensity Wave modulation observed in the early 1980s and again in 1991. This modulation is very strongly related to the heliospheric sector structure and implies a significantly different cosmic ray density on either side of the neutral sheet. The interpretation of most cosmic ray modulation phenomena requires good latitude coverage in both hemispheres. The closure of many muon observatories is a matter of concern. In the northern hemisphere a few new instruments are being constructed and spatial coverage is barely adequate. In the southern hemisphere the situation is far worse with the possibility that within a decade only the Mawson observatory in Antarctica will still be in operation. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Observations of Variability in Cosmic Rays

Cosmic rays are the main source of ionization in the atmosphere at altitudes below 55–60km. This circumstance, together with the fact that cosmic ray flux modulation closely mirrors the solar activity time history, makes cosmic rays a good candidate as a possible mediator in the solar variability – climate relationship. The observed cosmic ray flux variations are described with the aim of emphasizing the features which may be useful in the search of correlation between cosmic rays and atmospheric phenomena.     

Neutron Monitor Response Functions

The neutron monitor provides continuous ground-based recording of the hadronic component in atmospheric secondary radiation which is related to primary cosmic rays. Simpson (1948) discovered that the latitude variation of the secondary hadronic component was considerably larger than the muon component suggesting the response of a neutron monitor is more sensitive to lower energies in the primary spectrum. The different methods of determining the neutron monitor response function of primary cosmic rays are reviewed and discussed including early and recent results. The authors also provide results from a new calculation (Clem, 1999) including angle dependent yield functions for different neutron monitor types which are calculated using a simulation of cosmic ray air showers combined with a detection efficiency simulation for different secondary particle species. Results are shown for IGY and NM64 configurations using the standard ¹⁰BF₃ detectors and the new ³He detectors to be used in the Spaceship Earth Project (Bieber et al., 1995). The method of calculation is described in detail and the results are compared with measurements and previous calculations. A summary of future goals is discussed. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Cosmic Rays and Earth – A Summary

Cosmic rays provide a diagnostic tool to analyze processes in interplanetary space and at the Sun. Cosmic rays also directly affect the terrestrial environment and serve as indicators of solar variability and non anthropogenic climatic changes on Earth at present and in the distant past. After the invention of the neutron monitor by John A. Simpson in 1948, an international network of cosmic ray detectors developed in a cooperative effort to examine temporal and spatial variations in our space environment. The resulting datasets represent the longest continuous, high time resolution series of particle radiation measurement in space science. At present, the neutron monitor network is complemented by spacecraft instrumentation to study solar-terrestrial correlated phenomena. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Composition of Anomalous Cosmic Rays

The “classic” anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) component originates as interstellar neutral atoms that drift into the heliosphere, become ionized and picked up by the solar wind, and carried to the outer heliosphere where the pickup ions are accelerated to hundreds of MeV, presumably at the solar wind termination shock. These interstellar ACRs are predominantly singly charged, although higher charge states are present and become dominant above ～350 MeV. Their isotopic composition is like that of the solar system and unlike that of the source of galactic cosmic rays. A comparison of their energy spectra with the estimated flux of pickup ions flowing into the termination shock reveals a mass-dependent acceleration efficiency that favors heavier ions. There is also a heliospheric ACR component as evidenced by “minor” ACR ions, such as Na, Mg, S, and Si that appear to be singly-ionized ions from a source likely in the outer heliosphere.     

Modulation of Cosmic Rays and Anomalous Components by CIRs

CIRs produce clearly visible recurrent modulation in the intensity of cosmic rays and anomalous components, but are not principally responsible for determining the overall global level of modulation. However, the localized variations imposed by CIRs in the parameters for propagation of energetic particles through the solar wind provide useful diagnostics for testing models of the propagation against observations. A principal result from Ulysses observations of CIR-induced variations is that the variations persist to very high latitudes, well beyond the range where CIRs are observed. This has driven theoretical models to provide for enhanced latitude transport of energetic particles. On the other hand, observations of Jovian electron intensities vs. latitude do not support enhanced latitude transport. This chapter contains a summary of the interaction between observations and models for the effects of CIRs, and its impact on the understanding of the physics of modulation. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Skylab measurements of low energy cosmic rays

In this review the present state of our knowledge on the properties of heavy ions in low energy cosmic rays measured in the Skylab mission and in other spacecrafts is summarised and the possible mechanisms of their origin are discussed. A brief review of the general features of the galactic and solar cosmic rays is given in order to understand the special features of the low energy heavy ions of cosmic rays. The results of the cosmic ray experiment in the Skylab show that in the low energy interval of 8–30 MeV/N, the abundances of oxygen, nitrogen, and neon ions, relative to carbon are enhanced by a factor of 5 to 2 as compared to high energy cosmic rays; while Mg, Si, S, and A are depleted. In 50–150 MeV/N energy interval the abundance of nuclei of Ca-Cr relative to iron-group (Z = 25–28) is found to be highly enhanced, as compared to high energy cosmic rays. Furthermore the observations of the energy spectra of O, N, and Ne ions and their fairly large fluences in the energy interval of 8–30 MeV/N below the geomagnetic cut off energy of 50 MeV/N for fully stripped nuclei at the Skylab orbit indicate that these heavy ions are probably in partly ionised states. Thus, it is found that the Skylab results represent a new type of heavy ion population of low energy cosmic rays below 50 MeV/N, in the near Earth space and their properties are distinctly different from those of high energy cosmic rays and are similar to those of the anomalous component in the interplanetary space. The available data from the Skylab can be understood at present on the hypothesis that low energy interplanetary cosmic ray ions of oxygen etc. occur in partly ionised state such as O⁺¹,O⁺², etc. and these reach the inner magnetosphere at high latitudes where stripping process occurs near mirror points and this leads to temporarily trapped ions such as O⁺³, O⁺⁴, etc. It is noted that the origin of these low energy heavy cosmic ray ions in the magnetosphere and in interplanetary space is not yet fully understood and new type of sources or processes are responsible for their origin and these need further studies.     

The Inner Heliosphere - Outer Heliosphere Comparison for Cosmic Ray Modulation

This paper summarizes cosmic ray data on both galactic and anomalous particles in the inner and outer heliosphere near the sunspot minimum in 1995 and 1996 at the end of solar cycle 22. These data come from the IMP spacecraft in the inner heliosphere and the Voyager and Pioneer spacecraft in the outer heliosphere. In the inner heliosphere, the cosmic ray intensities at all energies in 1996 have recovered to almost the same maximum values they had at the last sunspot minimum in 1987 and the intensities are an even closer match to those observed two 11-year cycles earlier in 1976. In the outer heliosphere beyond 40 AU the intensity recovery is very slow and the intensities at all energies and for all species are almost constant in 1995-96 indicating that little further recovery can be expected in this cycle. The intensity of galactic cosmic rays in 1996 is only 0.3-0.5 of that observed at the same radius of 42 AU in 1987 and for anomalous cosmic rays this ratio is only 0.1-0.2. This suggests a dramatically different entry of particles into the heliosphere in the two cycles for both types of particles as well as significantly different particle flow characteristics in the outer heliosphere. The net result of these different characteristics is that near the Earth only a relatively small intensity difference is observed between successive 11-year solar cycles whereas in the outer heliosphere the differences between cycles become very large and may even dominate the overall modulation.     

Solar Variability and Clouds – Discussion Session 3c

Satellite observations have recently revealed a surprising imprint of the 11-year solar cycle on global low cloud cover. The cloud data suggest a correlation with the intensity of galactic cosmic rays. If this apparent connection between cosmic rays and clouds is real, variations of the cosmic ray flux caused by long-term changes in the solar wind could have a significant influence on the global energy radiation budget and the climate. However a direct link between cosmic rays and clouds has not been unambiguously established and, moreover, the microphysical mechanism is poorly understood. New experiments are being planned to find out whether cosmic rays can affect cloud formation, and if so how.     

Turbulence, Magnetic Reconnection in Turbulent Fluids and Energetic Particle Acceleration

Turbulence is ubiquitous in astrophysics. It radically changes many astrophysical phenomena, in particular, the propagation and acceleration of cosmic rays. We present the modern understanding of compressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence, in particular its decomposition into Alfvén, slow and fast modes, discuss the density structure of turbulent subsonic and supersonic media, as well as other relevant regimes of astrophysical turbulence. All this information is essential for understanding the energetic particle acceleration that we discuss further in the review. For instance, we show how fast and slow modes accelerate energetic particles through the second order Fermi acceleration, while density fluctuations generate magnetic fields in pre-shock regions enabling the first order Fermi acceleration of high energy cosmic rays. Very importantly, however, the first order Fermi cosmic ray acceleration is also possible in sites of magnetic reconnection. In the presence of turbulence this reconnection gets fast and we present numerical evidence supporting the predictions of the Lazarian and Vishniac (Astrophys. J. 517:700–718, 1999) model of fast reconnection. The efficiency of this process suggests that magnetic reconnection can release substantial amounts of energy in short periods of time. As the particle tracing numerical simulations show that the particles can be efficiently accelerated during the reconnection, we argue that the process of magnetic reconnection may be much more important for particle acceleration than it is currently accepted. In particular, we discuss the acceleration arising from reconnection as a possible origin of the anomalous cosmic rays measured by Voyagers as well as the origin cosmic ray excess in the direction of Heliotail.     

Energetic particle observations at high heliographic latitudes

Energetic particles, accelerated in shocks which were associated with recurrent fast solar wind streams, were observed in high heliographic latitudes; fifteen such steams were included in the present study. Intensity variations ranged up to four orders of magnitude. Energy spectra were typically steeper near forward shocks than near reverse shocks. Electrons were observed only lated to the reverse shocks. Composition ratios in accelerated streams resembled those observed in fast CIR's. In periods between the recurrent acceleration regions elemental abundance ratios were similar to those of the anomalous cosmic rays (ACR). The intensity of the accelerated particles declined as the latitude of ULYSSES increased, probably due to the weakening of the shocks.     

The modulation of cosmic rays in the high latitude heliosphere: A computer simulation

Modulation models based on the numerical solution of Parker's transport equation for galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere make clear predictions about modulation in the high latitude heliosphere. However, for these predictions certain assumptions have to be made, for example, what the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) looks like above the solar poles and what the spatial dependence of the diffusion coefficients are. For this presentation the general predictions of a standard drift model for the modulation of cosmic rays in the high latitude heliosphere, in particular predictions for the Ulysses trajectory, are discussed and critically reviewed. Preliminary results from Ulysses show a significant increase in the solar wind speed towards higher latitudes. The effects of this strong latitudinal dependence together with different modifications of the HMF at these high latitudes on the apparently too large diffusion and drifts predicted by current models are also shown.     

The multifuid solar wind termination shock and its influence on the threedimensional plasma structure upstream and downstream

The solar wind termination shock is described as a multi-fluid phenomenon taking into account the magnetohydrodynamic self-interaction of a multispecies plasma consisting of solar wind ions, pick-up ions and shock-generated anomalous cosmic ray particles. The spatial diffusion of these high energy particles relative to the resulting, pressure-modified solar wind flow structure is described by a coupled system of differential equations describing mass-, momentum-, and energy-flow continuities for all plasma components. The energy loss due to escape of energetic particles (MeV) from the precursor into the inner heliosphere is taken into account. We determine the integrated properties of the anomalous cosmic ray gas and the low-energy solar wind. Also the variation of the compression ratio of the shock structure is quantitatively determined and is related to the pick-up ion energization efficiency and to the mean energy of the downstream anomalous cosmic ray particles. The variation of the resulting shock structure and of the solar wind sheath plasma extent beyond the shock is discussed with respect to its consequences for the LISM neutral gas filtration and the threedimensional shape of the heliosphere.     

Cosmic Rays in Relation to Space Weather

A review of selected experimental results relevant for the use of cosmic ray records in Space Weather research is presented. Interplanetary perturbations, initiated in the solar atmosphere, affect galactic cosmic rays. In some cases their influence on the cosmic ray intensity results in data signatures that can possibly be used to predict geomagnetic storm onsets. Case studies illustrating the complexity of the cosmic ray effects and related geomagnetic activity precursors are discussed. It is shown that some indices for cosmic ray activity are good tools for testing the reliability of cosmic ray characteristics for Space Weather forecasts. A brief summary of the influence of cosmic rays on the ozone layer is also given. The use of cosmic ray data for Space Weather purposes is still in its infant stage, but suggestions for both case and statistical studies are made. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The evolution of the anomalous component of the cosmic rays during the Ulysses mission

We have studied the evolution of the anomalous cosmic ray component at ULYSSES using observations of the quiet time helium fluxes obtained with the COSPIN Low Energy Telescope during the years from launch in October 1990 to the latest data in 1994. Shown are preliminary results of measurements in the energy range from 4.0 to 19 MeV/n. Following the drop in solar activity in late 1991, the low energy cosmic ray helium flux started to increase and continue to rise until the end of 1993, signifying the appearance of the anomalous component at ULYSSES.     

Cosmic Rays,Clouds, and Climate

A correlation between a global average of low cloud cover and the flux of cosmic rays incident in the atmosphere has been observed during the last solar cycle. The ionising potential of Earth bound cosmic rays are modulated by the state of the heliosphere, while clouds play an important role in the Earth's radiation budget through trapping outgoing radiation and reflecting incoming radiation. If a physical link between these two features can be established, it would provide a mechanism linking solar activity and Earth's climate. Recent satellite observations have further revealed a correlation between cosmic ray flux and low cloud top temperature. The temperature of a cloud depends on the radiation properties determined by its droplet distribution. Low clouds are warm (>273K) and therefore consist of liquid water droplets. At typical atmospheric supersaturations (1%) a liquid cloud drop will only form in the presence of an aerosol, which acts as a condensation site. The droplet distribution of a cloud will then depend on the number of aerosols activated as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the level of super saturation. Based on observational evidence it is argued that a mechanism to explain the cosmic ray-cloud link might be found through the role of atmospheric ionisation in aerosol production and/or growth. Observations of local aerosol increases in low cloud due to ship exhaust indicate that a small perturbation in atmospheric aerosol can have a major impact on low cloud radiative properties. Thus, a moderate influence on atmospheric aerosol distributions from cosmic ray ionisation would have a strong influence on the Earth's radiation budget. Historical evidence over the past 1000 years indicates that changes in climate have occurred in accord with variability in cosmic ray intensities. Such changes are in agreement with the sign of cloud radiative forcing associated with cosmic ray variability as estimated from satellite observations.