Global energy issues affecting aeronautics: a reasoned conjecture

This paper is a reasoned conjecture of the future up to 2050 AD including estimates of energy supply and consumption, transport system developments and corresponding pollution effects. Results of the logistic substitution methods (Volterra–Lotka) are used in forecasting trends in innovation, transport and energy. Later work on normative forecasts is also included. The future of aeronautics cannot be isolated from events in other transport modes which together create the major problem of crude oil replacement during the next century. Natural gas will be the dominant energy source for the next 80 years and a major question is how best to use it for aviation.The work on which this paper is based was started in 1992 to answer the following questions:

• 1. Is the future oil shortfall sufficient to restrict aviation traffic and growth in the next 50 years?
• 2. If so, what is its substitute?
• 3. Can a substitute be obtained cheaply enough to free aviation from future kerosine shortages?
• 4. Is it paramount to change to liquid hydrogen fuel to avoid future fuel shortage in aeronautics, incidentally conferring possible environmental advantages?

There was no adequate evidence available to answer these questions, hence a method was devised to bring together several sets of partial data that contributed to the solution. The essence is to use the mean annual growth rate of traffic or energy over a future period as a pseudo-independent variable. This allows the inclusion of alternative high and low estimates of all the important quantities involved.     

Dynamic phenomena in the visible layers of sunspots

The empirical properties of the various dynamic phenomena are reviewed and interrelated with emphasis on recent observational results. The topics covered are:

1. Introduction
2. Aperiodic Phenomena
3. Externally Driven Phenomena
4. Umbral Flares
5. Inverse Evershed Flow
6. Internally Driven Phenomena
7. Penumbra
8. Penumbral Grains
9. Evershed Flow
10. Umbra
11. Umbral Dots
12. Inhomogeneity of the Umbral Magnetic Field
13. Umbral Turbulence
14. Oscillations and Waves
15. Chromosphere
16. Umbra: Oscillations and Flashes
17. Penumbra: Running Waves and Dark Puffs
18. Photosphere
19. Overview

It is proposed from the observations that umbral dots and penumbral grains are essentially the same phenomenon, and that the observational goal of highest priority with respect to both the origin of the periodic phenomena and the problem of the missing heat flux is to better determine the nature of these elementary bright features.     

The Segmented Aperture Synthetic Aperture Radar (SASAR)

A new concept in synthetic aperture radar, called SASAR, which uses a segmented aperture, is described. Use of the segmented aperture allows appreciable extra receiving antenna gain to be realized. Each subarray of the receive antenna is equal in length to the transmit antenna; the system performance is increased approximately by a factor equal to the number of subarrays. To allow array combination of the subarray signal outputs requires a phase-shift factor (varying with azimuth) to be applied to each subarray signal. A digital implementation of this preprocessor is sketched out; it uses a push-down storage stack to store the range histories for a synthetic aperture from each subarray. Appropriate phase shifts are added to the stacks and a sum of stack values then provides the combined output range history sequence. Possibilities of using analog delay lines for preprocessing are also discussed. Pattern errors due to subarray size and receive array near field are examined and constraints are given.     

Results from a Four-Element Adaptive Antenna Experiment

Experimental results from a four-element, linear, half-wavelength spacing, adaptive-array antenna under the control of the least mean square (LMS) algorithm are presented. The array is found to be capable of nulling a 70-MHz signal to -35 dB below a desired signal over a 5-MHz bandwidth. The antenna processing gain is constant over a desired signal-to-jammer signal power ratio range from -20 dB to 5 dB. A sharp reduction in processing gain is observed for angular separations between jammer and desired signal of less than 10°. Antenna patterns taken with weights set in 300 iterations of the LMS algorithm show that the one strong, one weak jammer combination has a longer weight convergence time and reduced processing gain compared with a two strong jammers combination. Contours of constant desired signal-to-jammer signal power ratio, after adaptive antenna processing, reveal a complex shape for communication between air and ground due to the finite angular resolution of the adaptive antenna.     

Evolution of the Moon: The 1974 model

The geology of the decade of Apollo and Luna probably will become one of the fundamental turning points in the history of all science. For the first time, the scientists of the Earth have been presented with the opportunity to interpret their home planet through the direct investigations of another. Mankind can be proud and take heart in this fact. The interpretive evolution of the Moon can be divided now into seven major stages beginning sometime near the end of the formation of the solar system. These stages and their approximate durations in time are as follows:

1. The Beginning — 4.6 billion years ago.
2. The Melted Shell — 4.6–4.4 billion years ago.
3. The Cratered Highlands — 4.4–4.1 billion years ago.
4. The Large Basins — 4.1–3.9 billion years ago.
5. The Light-colored Plains — 3.9–3.8 billion years ago.
6. The Basaltic Maria — 3.8–3.0 (?) billion years ago.
7. The Quiet Crust — 3.0 (?) billion years ago to the present.

The Apollo and Luna explorations that permit us to study these stages of evolution each have contributed in progressive and significant ways. Through them we now can look with new insight into the early differentiation of the Earth, the nature of the Earth's protocrust, the influence of the formation of large impact basins in that crust, the effects of early partial melting of the protomantle and possibly the earliest stages of the breakup of the protocrust into continents and ocean basins.     

Experimental phased array radar ELRA with extended flexibility

An update of a phased array radar project with the experimental system ELRA (electronic steerable radar) is given with respect to the extended and improved possibilities for performing measurements and evaluations for different types of radar operation. The variability of waveforms for solid-state transmitters is described. Flexible control of multifunction operation with various search and localization tasks is achieved with a network of microcomputers. Different means of signal processing are used for target detection and estimation. The active receiving array is divided into subarrays, and offers digital beamforming for pattern shaping and adaptive jammer suppression. Experimental results are presented     

Solar wind interaction with comets

The planned missions to Comet Halley, which will arrive at the nearest space of the Sun in 1986, have recently revived interest in studying solar wind interaction with comets. Several unsolved problems exist and the most urgent of them are as follows:

1. The character of the solar wind interaction with comets: bow shocks and contact surface formation near comets; similarities and differences of solar- wind interaction with comets and with Venus. The differences are probably associated with a great extension of neutral atmospheres of comets (due to a practical lack of cometary gravitation) and the ‘loading’ of the solar wind flux by cometary ions during the interaction.
2. The anomalous ionization in cometary heads.
3. The problem of the anamalously high accelerations of ions in the plasma tails of comets.
4. The variability of plasma structures observed in cometary tails.

     

Equivalent transformation for a partially adaptive array

A partially adaptive array is one in which elements of a phased array are controlled or adaptively weighted in groups or in which certain elements, called auxiliary elements, are made controllable. Mathematically, this type of array is formed by transforming all of the elements of an array by a nonsquare matrix such that the resulting output vector has a length less than the number of array elements. It is shown that there is an equivalent matrix transform that can effectively be utilized in analyzing the partially adaptive array's performance when a small number of external jammers are present. Processor implementation and convergence rate considerations lead to the desirability of reducing the dimensionality of the cancellation processor while maintaining good sidelobe interference protection. A meaningful measure of canceller performance is to compute the optimal output signal-to-noise ratio. This expression is a function of the jammer, direction-of-arrival vectors (DOAVs), jammer powers, the array steering vector, and internal noise. It is shown that if this expression is computed for the fully adaptive array then it is easily computed for the partially adaptive array by transforming the jammer DOAVs and the steering vector by the orthogonal projection matrix defined by the rows of the subarray transformation matrix and substituting these vectors back into the original expression for the fully adaptive array     

Measurements of quasi-static electric fields between 3 and 7 Earth radii on GEOS-1

Quasi-static electric fields have been measured with two spherical probes supported by cable booms providing a baseline of 42 m for the measurement. The performance of the experiment is outlined to demonstrate that electric fields can be measured with accuracies of ±0.7 mV m^-1 and ±1.0 mV m^-1 in the dawn-dusk and satellite-sun directions respectively. These uncertainties can be considerably reduced under favourable plasma conditions. Examples of typical observations are described.

1. The average electric field is always characterized by an irregular structure with time scales 0.5–5 min and with amplitudes of a few mV m^-1.
2. During substorms dawn-dusk electric fields up to 20–30 mV m^-1 have been observed over intervals of 30–60 s.
3. Oscillating electric fields with peak-to-peak amplitudes up to 10 mV m^-1 and periods of 3–10 min have been observed following magnetospheric disturbances.

The observations are discussed in terms of plasma motions and possible spatial scale sizes of the phenomena, standing magnetospheric wave modes and electrostatic potentials.     

The atmosphere of Venus

The investigations of Venus take a special position in planetary researches. It was just the atmosphere of Venus where first measurements in situ were carried out by means of the equipment delivered by a space probe (Venera 4, 1967). Venus appeared to be the first neighbor planet whose surface had been seen by us in the direct nearness made possible by means of the phototelevision device (Venera 9 and Venera 10, 1975). The reasons for the high interest in this planet are very simple. This planet is like the Earth by its mass, size and amount of energy obtained from the Sun and at the same time it differs sharply by the character of its atmosphere and climate. We hope that the investigations of Venus will lead us to define more precisely the idea of complex physical and physical-chemical processes which rule the evolution of planetary atmospheres. We hope to learn to forecast this evolution and maybe, in the far future, to control it. The last expeditions to Venus carried out in 1978 — American (Pioneer-Venus) and Soviet (Venera 11 and 12) — brought much news and it is interesting to sum up the results just now. The contents of this review are:

1. The planet Venus — basic astronomical data.
2. Chemical composition.
3. Temperature, pressure, density (from 0 to 100 km).
4. Clouds.
5. Thermal regime and greenhouse effect.
6. Dynamics.
7. Chemical processes.
8. Upper atmosphere.
9. Origin and evolution.
10. Problems for future studies

Here we have attempted to review the data published up to 1979 and partly in 1980. The list of references is not exhaustive. Publications of special issues of magazines and collected articles concerning separate space expeditions became traditional last time. The results obtained on the Soviet space probes Venera 9, 10 (the first publications) are collected in the special issues of Kosmicheskie issledovanija (14, Nos. 5, 6, 1975), analogous material about Venera 11, 12 is given at Pis'ma Astron. Zh. (5, Nos. 1 and 5, 1978), and in Kosmicheskie issledovanija (16, No. 5, 1979). The results of Pioneer-Venus mission are represented in two Science issues (203, No. 4382; 205, No. 4401) and special issue of J. Geophys. Res. (1980). We shall mention some articles to the same topic among previous surveys: (Moroz, 1971; Sagan, 1971; Marov, 1972; Hunten et al., 1977; Hoffman et al., 1977) and also the books by Kuzmin and Marov (1974) and Kondrat'ev (1977). Some useful information in the part of ground-based observations may be found in the older sources (for example, Sharonov, 1965; Moroz, 1967). For briefness we shall use as a rule the abbreviations of space missions names: V4 instead of Venera 4, M10 instead of Mariner 10 and so on. The first artificial satellites of Venus in the world (orbiters Venera 9 and 10) we shall mark as V9-O, V10-O unlike the descent probes V9, V10. Fly-by modules of Venera 11 and Venera 12 we shall mark as V11-F and V12-F. Pioneers descent probes — Large (Sounder), Day, Night and North — will be marked as P-L, P-D, P-Ni, P-No, orbiter as P-O, and bus as P-B.     

Conjugate features of magnetospheric electron dynamics observed at balloon altitudes

Analysis of recent observations (from balloons, spacecraft, and surface observatories) demonstrate regional, shell, and nearpoint conjugacy at L ～ 7 during precipitative events which were characterized by local acceleration as well as release of gradient-drifted electrons injected during substorms. A number of new features of magnetospheric dynamics relating to substorm development and sudden-commencement effects, have been brought to light which, though poorly understood at present, may prove of considerable importance and are worthy of further investigation.

1. During the initial period of instability in substorm evolution, preceding the slower magnetotail convective injection, precipitation of waves of electrons in rapid polewards motion exhibit L-shell conjugacy near midnight.
2. Transient, large scale expansions of the magnetospheric electron population accompanied by temporally imbedded substorms display large scale regional conjugacy and are simultaneously observed as similarly transient intensity dropouts at balloon altitudes.
3. Precipitation from gradient-drifting electrons in the dayside magnetosphere exhibits near point-conjugacy, at least down to the order of 50 km and quite probably less.

Similarly tight conjugacy applies to the release of electrons showing a specific local response to sudden commencements.

1. Analysis of the approach to and attainment of spectral equilibrium in the precipitation observed from drifting electrons may provide information about either, or both, the source spectrum at injection and the process of local release.
2. The specific precipitation effect sometimes observed at the time of an SC remains a rather puzzling feature, although it seems clear now that the acceleration and/or release process responsible is of a highly local nature and works selectively at small pitch angles well within the magnetospheric boundary. Coupling of the interplanetary shock with the magnetosphere must be an important aspect, but the details are not clear as yet.
3. On at least one occasion, a large part (perhaps all) of the magnetospheric electron population varied in a nearly synchronous manner in response to solar wind induced distortions during the variable compressive phase of a sudden commencement geomagnetic storm.

In the ongoing effort to identify and understand acceleration and release mechanisms involved in magnetospheric dynamics, balloon-borne experiments will continue to be useful, providing essential information presently unattainable by other means.     

Molecular Biosignatures

Life, as we know it, is based on carbon chemistry operating in an aqueous environment. Living organisms process chemicals, make copies of themselves, are autonomous and evolve in concert with the environment. All these characteristics are driven by, and operate through, carbon chemistry. The carbon chemistry of living systems is an exact branch of science and we have detailed knowledge of the basic metabolic and reproductive machinery of living organisms. We can recognise the residual biochemicals long after life has expired and otherwise lost most life-defining features. Carbon chemistry provides a tool for identifying extant and extinct life on Earth and, potentially, throughout the Universe. In recognizing that certain distinctive compounds isolable from living systems had related fossil derivatives, organic geochemists coined the term biological marker compound or biomarker (e.g. Eglinton et al. in Science 145:263–264, 1964) to describe them. In this terminology, biomarkers are metabolites or biochemicals by which we can identify particular kinds of living organisms as well as the molecular fossil derivatives by which we identify defunct counterparts. The terms biomarker and molecular biosignature are synonymous. A defining characteristic of terrestrial life is its metabolic versatility and adaptability and it is reasonable to expect that this is universal. Different physiologies operate for carbon acquisition, the garnering of energy and the storage and processing of information. As well as having a range of metabolisms, organisms build biomass suited to specific physical environments, habitats and their ecological imperatives. This overall ‘metabolic diversity’ manifests itself in an enormous variety of accompanying product molecules (i.e. natural products). The whole field of organic chemistry grew from their study and now provides tools to link metabolism (i.e. physiology) to the occurrence of biomarkers specific to, and diagnostic for, particular kinds of metabolism. Another characteristic of living things, also likely to be pervasive, is that an enormous diversity of large molecules are built from a relatively small subset of universal precursors. These include the four bases of DNA, 20 amino acids of proteins and two kinds of lipid building blocks. Third, life exploits the specificity inherent in the spatial, that is, the three-dimensional qualities of organic chemicals (stereochemistry). These characteristics then lead to some readily identifiable and measurable generic attributes that would be diagnostic as biosignatures. Measurable attributes of molecular biosignatures include:

1. Enantiomeric excess
2. Diastereoisomeric preference
3. Structural isomer preference
4. Repeating constitutional sub-units or atomic ratios
5. Systematic isotopic ordering at molecular and intramolecular levels
6. Uneven distribution patterns or clusters (e.g. C-number, concentration, δ ¹³C) of structurally related compounds.

In this paper we address details of the chemical and biosynthetic basis for these features, which largely arise as a consequence of construction from small, recurring sub-units. We also address how these attributes might become altered during diagenesis and planetary processing. Finally, we discuss the instrumental techniques and further developments needed to detect them.     

A strategy for investigation of the outer solar system

The requirements of systematic exploration of the outer solar system have been intensively studied by a Science Advisory Group (SAG) of consulting scientists for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Comets and Asteroids were excluded from this study, as a separate group is planning missions to these bodies. This paper and accompanying articles on specific related scientific subjects written by members of the SAG, summarize the findings and recommendations of this group. These recommendations should not be interpreted as official NASA policy. Following some general introductory remarks, a brief sketch is given of the development and current status of scientific missions to the inner planets by the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. With this perspective, the development of the U.S. program for investigation of the outer solar system is described. The scientific focus of outer solar system exploration has been studied in detail. The relationship of the outer planetary bodies to one another and to the inner planets, as parts in a unified solar system evolved from a primitive solar nebula, is emphasized. Deductions from outer solar system investigations regarding the conditions of the solar nebula at the time of planetary formation have been considered. Investigations have been proposed that are relevant to studies of the atmospheric structure and dynamics, internal structure of the planets, satellite composition and morphology, and planetary and interplanetary fields and energetic particles. The mission type and sequence required to conduct a systematic exploration of the outer solar system has been developed. Technological rationales for the suggested missions are discussed in general terms. The existing NASA program for outer solar system exploration is comprised of four missions:

1. Pioneer 10 fly-by mission to Jupiter and beyond, currently underway, with launch on 3 March 1972;
2. Pioneer G, intended for a similar mission with planned launch 2–22 April 1973; and
3. Two Mariner Jupiter/Saturn fly-bys in 1977, with experiment selection scheduled for late 1972 and detailed engineering design during 1972–74.

The Science Advisory Group advocates that detailed mission planning be undertaken on the following additional missions for launches during the late 1970's and early 1980's. Together with existing plans, these would provide a balanced, effective exploration program.

1. 1976 Pioneer Jupiter/Out-of-Ecliptic (One Mission)
2. 1979 Mariner Jupiter/Uranus Fly-bys (Two Missions)
3. 1979 Pioneer Entry Probe to Saturn 1980 Pioneer Entry Probe to Uranus via Saturn Fly-by (Three Missions)
4. 1981/1982 Mariner Jupiter Orbiter (Two Missions).

     

Particle code simulations with injected particles

As problems we are interested in become more complex, we often find our simulations stretching the limits of available computer resources. For example, an interesting problem is simulation of dissipation processes in sub-critical collisionless shocks. To simulate this system our simulation box must contain the shock and its upstream and downstream regions over the entire length of a run. If the shock moves with any appreciable speed the box must then be considerably larger than the shock thickness making it hard to resolve the shock front itself with a reasonable number of grid points. A solution to this problem is to run the simulation in the frame of reference of the shock. Particles are injected upstream of the shock and leave the simulation box downstream. With the shock stationary in the simulation box, we only need to contain enough of the up and downstream regions for the fields, etc., to settle down and separate the shock from the box boundaries. In this tutorial we consider some basic algorithms used in a practical particle injection code, such as the two dimensional WAVE code used at Los Alamos. We will try to present these ideas in a simple format general enough to be easily included in any particle code. Topics covered are:

1. Smoothly Injecting Particles.
2. Generating the Distribution Functions.
3. Time Dependent Injection Density.
4. Boundary Conditions on Fields and Particles.

(Flux and Charge Conservation)     

Auroral Substorms: Search for Processes Causing the Expansion Phase in Terms of the Electric Current Approach

Auroral substorms are mostly manifestations of dissipative processes of electromagnetic energy. Thus, we consider a sequence of processes consisting of the power supply (dynamo), transmission (currents/circuits) and dissipations (auroral substorms-the end product), namely the electric current line approach. This work confirms quantitatively that after accumulating magnetic energy during the growth phase, the magnetosphere unloads the stored magnetic energy impulsively in order to stabilize itself. This work is based on our result that substorms are caused by two current systems, the directly driven (DD) current system and the unloading system (UL). The most crucial finding in this work is the identification of the UL (unloading) current system which is responsible for the expansion phase. A very tentative sequence of the processes leading to the expansion phase (the generation of the UL current system) is suggested for future discussions.

1. (1)
   The solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo enhances significantly the plasma sheet current when its power is increased above \(10^{18}~\mbox{erg}/\mbox{s}\) (\(10^{11}\) w).
    
2. (2)
   The magnetosphere accumulates magnetic energy during the growth phase, because the ionosphere cannot dissipate the increasing power because of a low conductivity. As a result, the magnetosphere is inflated, accumulating magnetic energy.
    
3. (3)
   When the power reaches \(3\mbox{--}5\times 10^{18}~\mbox{erg}/\mbox{s}\) (\(3\mbox{--}5\times 10^{11}\) w) for about one hour and the stored magnetic energy reaches \(3\mbox{--}5\times10^{22}\) ergs (\(10^{15}\) J), the magnetosphere begins to develop perturbations caused by current instabilities (the current density \({\approx}3\times 10^{-12}~\mbox{A}/\mbox{cm}^{2}\) and the total current \({\approx}10^{6}~\mbox{A}\) at 6 Re). As a result, the plasma sheet current is reduced.
    
4. (4)
   The magnetosphere is thus deflated. The current reduction causes \(\partial B/\partial t > 0\) in the main body of the magnetosphere, producing an earthward electric field. As it is transmitted to the ionosphere, it becomes equatorward-directed electric field which drives both Pedersen and Hall currents and thus generates the UL current system.
    
5. (5)
   A significant part of the magnetic energy is accumulated in the main body of the magnetosphere (the inner plasma sheet) between 4 Re and 10 Re, because the power (Poynting flux \([ \boldsymbol{E} \times \boldsymbol{B} ])\) is mainly directed toward this region which can hold the substorm energy.
    
6. (6)
   The substorm intensity depends on the location of the energy accumulation (between 4 Re and 10 Re), the closer the location to the earth, the more intense substorms becomes, because the capacity of holding the energy is higher at closer distances. The convective flow toward the earth brings both the ring current and the plasma sheet current closer when the dynamo power becomes higher.
    

This proposed sequence is not necessarily new. Individual processes involved have been considered by many, but the electric current approach can bring them together systematically and provide some new quantitative insights.

     

Evolution into contact of the low-mass close binary systems

We investigated the effect of mass accretion on the secondary components in close binomy systems (M _total ≤ 2.5 M _⊙ M _2,0 ≤ 0.75 M _⊙) exchanging mass in the case A. The evolution of the low-mass close binary systems (M _total ≤ 2.5 M _⊙) exchanging the mass in the case A depends on the three main factors:

-the initial mass ratio (q ₀ = M _2,0/M _1,0), which determines the rate of mass transfer between components;

-the inital mass of the secondary component (M _2,0) and

-the effectiveness of the heating of the photosphere of the secondary component, by infalling matter.

The second factor allows to divide all systems into two essentially different groups:

1. systems in which the secondary component is a star with a radiative envelope, or with a thin convection zone in the uppermost layers;
2. and systems in which secondary component has a thick convective envelope or is fully convective.

The systems from the first group evolve into contact in a characteristic time scale 10⁵ – 10⁷ years, and reach contact after transfering of 0.03 – 0.3 M _⊙. The mass exchange proceeds only in a thermal time scale. For the systems from the group b the effectiveness of the heating of the stellar surface is the most important. In the case when the entropy of the newly accreted matter is the same as the surface entropy of the secondary, a convective star should shrink upon accretion. Then contact binaries are not formed. In the case when the entropy of the infalling matter is greater then that on the surface, the reaction of the secondary is different. The radius of the secondary component grows rapidly in response to accretion, and the systems reaches contact after the 10³ – 3 10⁶ years, and after transfer of 0.002 – 0.2. M _⊙. The reaction of the secondary is determined by the formation of the temperature inversion layer below the stellar surface. Full references in: Sarna, M.J. and Fedorova, A.V. (1988) “Evolutionary status of W UMa-type Binaries — Evolution into contact”, Astron. Astrophys., in press.     

A New Morphology of Solar Activity and Recurrent Geomagnetic Disturbances: The Late-Declining Phase of the Sunspot Cycle

Certain aspects of the Sun and resulting geomagnetic disturbances can be studied better on the source surface, an imaginary spherical surface of 3.5 solar radii, than on the photospheric surface. This paper presents evidence that the Sun exhibits one of the most fundamental aspects of activities most clearly during the late-declining phase of the sunspot cycle. It is the period when 27-day average values of the solar wind speed and of geomagnetic disturbances tend to be highest during the sunspot cycle. Important findings of this study on the late-declining phase of the sunspot cycle are the following:

1. By introducing a new coordinate system, modifying the Carrington coordinates, it is shown that various solar activity phenomena, solar flares, the brightest coronal regions, and also the lowest solar wind speed region, tend to concentrate in two quadrants, one around 90^° in longitude in the northern hemisphere (NE) and the other around 270^° in longitude in the southern hemisphere (SW). For this reason, the new coordinate system is referred to as the NESW coordinate system.
2. It is shown that the above results are closely related to the fact that the neutral line exhibits a single wave (sinusoidal or rectangular) in both the Carrington coordinates and the NESW coordinate system during the late-declining phase. The shift of the neutral line configuration during successive solar rotations during the late-declining phase causes longitudinal scatter of the location of solar flares with respect to the neutral line in a statistical study. The NESW coordinate system is designed to suppress the shift, so that the single wave location is fixed and thus a ‘nest’ of solar flares emerges in the NE and SW quadrants.
3. It is also shown that the single wave is the source of the double peak of the solar wind speed and two series of recurrent geomagnetic disturbances in each solar rotation, making the 27-day average solar wind and geomagnetic disturbances highest during the sunspot cycle. The double peak is a basic feature during the late-declining phase, but is obscured by several complexities which we identified in this paper; see item 8.
4. The single wave of the neutral line configuration can be approximated by three dipole fields, one which can be represented by a central dipole (parallel or anti-parallel to the rotation axis) and two hypothetical dipoles on the photosphere. This configuration is referred to as the triple dipole model.
5. The location of the two hypothetical photospheric dipoles coincide with the two active regions (solar flares, the brightest coronal region) and also the lowest solar wind speed region in the NESW coordinate system; the lowest solar wind regions are the cause of the valleys of the double peak of the solar wind speed.
6. The two hypothetical dipole fields actually do exist at the location of the two active regions in a coarse magnetic map (5 × 5^°). The two dipoles follow the Hale–Nicholson polarity law. Thus, they are real physical entities.
7. The apparent meridional rotation of the dipolar field on the source surface during the sunspot cycle results from combined changes of both the central dipole field and of the two photospheric dipoles, although the central dipole remains axially parallel or anti-parallel. Thus, the Sun has a general field that can be represented by an axially aligned dipole located at the center of the Sun throughout the sunspot cycle, except for the sunspot maximum period when the polarization reversal occurs.
8. The complexity of recurrent geomagnetic disturbances can also be understood by having the NESW coordinate system for various solar phenomena and the relative location of the earth with respect to the solar equatorial plane.
9. As the intensity of the two dipoles decreases toward the end of the sunspot cycle, the amplitude of the single wave decreases, and the neutral line tends to align with the heliographic equator.
10. The neutral line shows a double wave structure during certain epochs of the sunspot cycle. In such a situation, it can be considered that two NESW coordinate systems are present in one Carrington coordinate, resulting in four active regions.
11. The so-called classical “sector boundary” arises when the peaks (top and bottom) of the single wave reached 90^° in latitude in both hemispheres.
12. In summary: A study of the late-declining period of the sunspot cycle is very important compared with the sunspot maximum period. In the late-declining period, the Sun shows its activities in the simplest form. It is suggested that some of the basic features of solar activities and recurrent geomagnetic disturbances that have been studied by many researchers in the past can be synthesized in a simplest way by introducing the NESW coordinate system and the triple dipole model. There is a possibility that the basic results we learned during the late phase of the sunspot cycle can be applicable to the rest of the sunspot cycle.

     

Hard rock cosmic ray archaeology

Recent examinations of extraterrestrial materials exposed to cosmic rays for different intervals of time during the geological history of the solar system have generated a wealth of new information on the history of cosmic radiation. This information relates to the temporal variations in

1. the flux and energy spectrum of low energy (solar) protons of ? 10 MeV kinetic energy;
2. the flux and energy spectrum of (solar) heavy nuclei of Z > 20 of kinetic energy, 0.5–10 MeV/n;
3. the integrated flux of protons and heavier nuclei of ? 0.5 GeV kinetic energy, and
4. the flux and energy spectrum of nuclei of Z > 20 of medium energy — 100–2000 MeV/n kinetic energy.

The above studies are entirely based on the natural detector method which utilises two principal cosmogenic effects observed in rocks, (i) isotopic changes and (ii) changes in the crystalline structure of rock constituents, due to cosmogenic interactions. The information available to date in the field of hard rock cosmic ray archaeology refers to meteorites and lunar rocks/soil. Additional information based on study of cosmogenic effects in man-made materials exposed to cosmic radiation in space is also discussed. It is shown that the natural detectors inspite of their extreme simplicity have begun to provide cosmic ray information in a very quantitative and precise manner comparable to the most sophisticated electronic particle detectors. The single handicap in using the hard rock detectors is however the uncertainty regarding their manner of exposure, geometry etc. At present, a variety of techniques are being used to study the evolutionary history of extraterrestrial materials and as this field grows, uncertainties in cosmic ray archaeology will correspondingly decrease.     

Cosmic-ray lifetime in the galaxy: Experimental results and models

The containment lifetime of the cosmic radiation is a crucial parameter in the investigation of the cosmic-ray origin and plays an important role in the dynamics of the Galaxy. The separation of the cosmic-ray Be isotopes achieved by two satellite experiments is considered in this paper, and from the measured isotopic ratio between the radioactive ¹⁰Be (half-life = 1.5 × 10⁶ yr) and the stable ⁹Be, it is deduced that the cosmic rays propagate through matter with an average density of 0.24 ± 0.07 atoms cm^-3, lower than the traditionally quoted average density in the galactic disk of 1 atom cm^-3. This paper reviews the implications of this result for the cosmic-ray age mainly in the context of two models of confinement and propagation: the homogeneous model, normally identified with confinement to the galactic gaseous disk, and a diffusion model in which the cosmic rays extend into a galactic halo. The propagation calculations use:

1. a newly deduced cosmic-ray pathlength distribution.
2. a self-consistent model of solar modulation.
3. an up-to-date set of fragmentation cross sections.

The satellite results and their implications are compared with the information on the cosmic-ray age derived from other cosmic-ray radioactive nuclei and the measured differential energy spectrum of high-energy electrons. It is a major conclusion of this paper that in a homogeneous model the cosmic-ray age is 15(+7, -4) million years, i.e., about a factor 4 longer than early estimates based on the abundances of the light nuclei Li, Be, and B and a nominal interstellar density of 1 atom cm ^-3. The lifetime is even longer when the satellite results are applied to a diffusion halo model. The deduced traversed matter density, together with other astrophysical considerations, suggest the population of a galactic halo by the cosmic rays.     

Chaos theory and radio emission

The application of chaos theory has become popular to understand the nature of various features of solar activity because most of them are far from regular. The usual approach, however, that is based on finding low-dimensional structures of the underlying processes seems to be successful only in a few exceptional cases, such as in rather coherent phenomena as coronal pulsations. It is important to note that most phenomena in solar radio emission are more complex. We present two kinds of techniques from nonlinear dynamics which can be useful to analyse such phenomena:

1. Fragmentation processes observed in solar spike events are studied by means of symbolic dynamics methods. Different measures of complexity calculated from such observations reveal that there is some order in this fragmentation.
2. Bursts are a typical transient phenomenon. To study energization processes causing impulsive microwave bursts, the wavelet analysis is applied. It exhibits structural differences of the pre- and post-impulsive phase in cases where the power spectra of both are not distinct.