Comparison of various empirical models of electron temperature with experimental measurements during low solar activity

Comparisons of various available empirical models of electron temperature are made with actual measurements from incoherent scatter radar and rocket and satellite probes, during low solar activity period. The models compared are those of Pandey $\text{et al.}$ (1983), Brace and Theis (1978), IRI (1979) and Bilitza (1983). It is found that our model and the Brace and Theis model are closer to actual measurements than the IRI and Bilitza models.     

An empirical model of electron density for low and middle latitudes below 200 km

Our empirical model of electron density (n_e) for quiet and weakly disturbed geomagnetic conditions (Kp not greater 4) takes account of comparative analysis of existing models and of experimental data obtained by rockets and incoherent scatter radar. The model describes the n_e distribution in the 80 to 200 km height range at low and middle latitudes, and to some extent, in the subauroral region. It is presented in analytical form thus allowing one to calculate electron density profiles for any time. The electron density distribution at 140 km depends on the season (day of the year) and on the solar zenith angle. Profile variations during the day are for one season shown. Different from other models, ours specifies the variations during sunrise and sunset and reflects the particular profile shape at night admitting the occurrence of an intermediate layer.     

An empirical model of electron temperature for low and middle latitudes in the 100–200 km height region

An empirical model of electron temperature (T_e) for low and middle latitudes is proposed in view of IRI. It is constructed on the basis of experimental data obtained at 100 to 200 km by probe and incoherent scatter methods. Below 150 km the model gives two T_e values: one from incoherent scatter data and another from probe measurements. The model can be used for all seasons for quiet geomagnetic conditions (Kp not greater 3) and at almost all levels of solar activity (F_10.7 between 70 and 200). It is presented in an analytical form that allows one to calculate T_e profiles for different latitudes, longitudes and at any season (day). Depending on geomagnetic latitude and solar zenith angle, electron temperature distributions are presented for two heights along with T_e profile variations during the day (at middle latitudes).     

Relationship between electron density and electron temperature as a function of solar activity

This paper attempts to examine the control of electron density and solar activity on the F-region electron temperature. This is achieved by obtaining coefficients relating electron temperature with electron density and solar activity by using incoherent scatter radar measurements at Arecibo for the period August 1966 to May 1977. These coefficients are then used to construct an empirical model of F-region electron temperature. The model values are compared with measurements at other locations and show reasonable agreement.     

An empirical model of electron density in low latitude at 600 km obtained by Hinotori satellite

An empirical model of electron density (Ne) was constructed by using the data obtained with an impedance probe on board Japanese Hinotori satellite. The satellite was in circular orbit of the height of 600 km with the inclination of 31 degrees from February 1981 to June 1982. The constructed model gives Ne at any local time with the time resolution of 90 min and between −25 and 25 degrees in magnetic latitude with its resolution of 5 degrees in the range of F_10.7 from 150 to 250 under the condition of K_p < 4. Spline interpolations are applied to the functions of day of year, geomagnetic latitude and solar local time, and linear interpolation is applied to the function of F_10.7. Longitude dependence of Ne is not taken into account. Our density model can reproduce solar local time variation of electron density at 600 km altitude better than current International Reference Ionosphere (IRI2001) model which overestimates Ne in night time and underestimates Ne in day time. Our density model together with electron temperature model which has been constructed before will enable more understanding of upper ionospheric phenomenon in the equatorial region.     

A new model of the ion composition at 75 to 1000 km for IRI

Ion composition of the ionosphere is an important parameter of any ionospheric model. The International Reference Ionosphere-1979 includes a program for the relative ion composition computation. The program was constructed on the basis of the Danilov and Semenov /1/ empirical model, which averaged 42 rocket measurements of the ion composition at middle latitudes below 200 km, on “AEROS” satellite measurements, and on Taylor's data /2/ above that altitude.     

Equatorial total electron content (TEC) at low and high solar activity

Total electron content (TEC) derived from ionosonde data recorded at the station of Korhogo (Lat = 9.33°N, Long = 5.43°W, Dip = 0.67°S) are compared to the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model predicted TEC for high (1999) and low (1994) solar activity conditions. The results show that the model represents the diurnal variation of the TEC as well as a solar activity and seasonal dependence. This variation is closer to that of the ionosonde-inferred TEC at high solar activity. However, at low solar activity the IRI overestimates the ionosonde-inferred TEC. The relative deviation ΔTEC is more prominent in the equinoctial seasons during nighttime hours where it is as high as 70%. At daytime hours, the relative deviation is estimated to 0–30%.     

Global validation of IRI TEC for high and medium solar activity conditions

The IRI model offers a choice of options for the computation of the electron density profile and electron content (TEC). Recently new options for the topside electron density profile have been developed, which have a strong impact on TEC. Therefore it is important to test massively the IRI and the new options with experimental data. A large number of permanent stations record dual frequency GPS data from which it is possible to obtain TEC values. Thirty-one worldwide distributed stations have been selected to investigate the capabilities of the IRI to reproduce experimental TEC. Data for years 2000 (high solar activity) and 2004 (medium solar activity) have been analyzed computing modeled values with the IRI-2001 and the IRI-2007-NeQuick topside options. It is found that IRI-2007-NeQuick option generally improves the estimate of the slant TEC, especially in the case of high latitudes stations during high solar activity.     

Theoretical model of electron temperature and electron density: Comparisons with IRI and MSIS

An earlier theoretical model (UW-87) accurately predicted the electron temperature in the daytime F-region but suggested N₂ concentrations significantly greater than the predictions of MSIS-86. This discrepancy is resolved when the model is developed to include the effects of vibrationally excited nitrogen molecules and electronically excited oxygen ions on the F-region recombination rate. The revised model (UW-92) continues to predict electron temperatures close to the layer peak with great accuracy but it is now more closely consistent with MSIS. However, the electron temperatures predicted by this model, which are in close agreement with EISCAT observations, are significantly higher than the values predicted by the international Reference Ionosphere.     

Calculations and observations of solar particle enhancements to the radiation environment at aircraft altitudes.

Solar particle events can give greatly enhanced radiation at aircraft altitudes, but are both difficult to predict and to calculate retrospectively. This enhanced radiation can give significant dose to aircrew and greatly increase the rate of single event effects in avionics. Validation of calculations is required but only very few events have been measured in flight. The CREAM detector on Concorde detected the event of 29 September 1989 and also four periods of enhancement during the events of 19-24 October 1989. Instantaneous rates were enhanced by up to a factor ten compared with quiet-time cosmic rays, while flight-averages were enhanced by up to a factor six. Calculations are described for increases in radiation at aircraft altitudes using solar particle spectra in conjunction with Monte Carlo radiation transport codes. In order to obtain solar particle spectra with sufficient accuracy over the required energy range it is necessary to combine space data with measurements from a wide range of geomagnetically dispersed, ground-level neutron monitors. Such spectra have been obtained for 29 September 1989 and 24 October 1989 and these are used to calculate enhancements that are compared with the data from CREAM on Concorde. The effect of cut-off rigidity suppression by geomagnetic activity is shown to be significant. For the largest event on record on 23 February 1956, there are no space data but there are data from a number of ground-level cosmic-ray detectors. Predictions for all events show very steep dependencies on both latitude and altitude. At high latitude and altitude (17 km) calculated increases with respect to cosmic rays are a factor 70 and 500 respectively for 29 September 1989 and 23 February 1956. The levels of radiation for high latitude, subsonic routes are calculated, using London to Los Angeles as an example, and can exceed 1 mSv, which is significantly higher than for Concorde routes from Europe to New York. The sensitivity of the calculations to spectral fitting, geomagnetic activity and other assumptions demonstrates the requirement for widespread carriage of radiation monitors on aircraft.     

An empirical model to predict the 1-AU arrival of interplanetary shocks

We extend the empirical coronal mass ejection (CME) arrival model of Gopalswamy et al. [Gopalswamy, N. et al. Predicting the 1-AU arrival times of coronal mass ejections, J. Geophys. Res. 106, 29207, 2001] to predict the 1-AU arrival of interplanetary (IP) shocks. A set of 29 IP shocks and the associated magnetic clouds observed by the Wind spacecraft are used for this study. The primary input to this empirical shock arrival model is the initial speed of white-light CMEs obtained using coronagraphs. We use the gas dynamic piston–shock relationship to derive the ESA model which provides a simple means of obtaining the 1-AU speed and arrival times of interplanetary shocks using CME speeds.     

Seasonal and solar activity dependent variations of the geomagnetic activity effect at high latitudes

Thermospheric N₂ density data measured in the high-latitude joule heating region are investigated to establish systematic variations of the geomagnetic activity effect. It is found that the disturbance effects are larger during winter conditions and also during low solar activity.     

The D-region ion composition and electron density response to strong solar proton events (model simulations)

Fluxes of energetic solar protons penetrate deep into the Earth’s polar cap middle atmosphere. Interacting with molecules of the air they cause additional dissociation and ionization, and the formed NO_x, OH_y and ions enter chemical and ion-molecular reactions. Induced changes of the ionospheric D-layer are modeled by a 1D model of lower ionosphere with chemistry, using neutral species concentrations calculated by a 1D photochemical time-dependent model. Changes of the electron and ion densities, and the most important ionospheric parameters are calculated after SPE with the onset on July 14, 2000 and the results are compared with our results obtained previously for the October 19, 1989 SPE. It is shown that not only electron density increases after SPE, but also the amount of clusters. It is found that the magnitude of the ionospheric response depends on season.     

Comparison of model and experimental ionospheric parameters at high latitudes

Modern use and study of the auroral region needs to attract a wider class of models for describing conditions of radio wave propagation in the ionosphere. In this paper the possibilities of the International Reference Ionosphere model, well-proven and widespread in the mid-latitudes, are investigated in the high latitude zone. Model and measured values of the critical frequency foF2 for two mid-latitude stations (Juliusruh and Goosebay) and four high-latitude ones (Loparskaya, Sodankyla, Sondrestrom, Thule) are compared. Deviations of medians, variations from day to day and solar activity trends seemed to be similar for both areas. This similarity is irrespective of the RZ12 index. Special attention is paid to the TEC parameter and its determination using 6 versions of models, a new version of the model IRI2010 (IRI-Plas) among them. It is shown that the IRI-Plas model significantly improves the definition of TEC in contrast to the versions of IRI2007 and the new model NeQuick. The use of the median of the experimental equivalent slab thickness, together with the current values of the TEC, increases by a factor of two the agreement between calculated and measured foF2 values as compared with the variations from day to day. This allows foF2 to be defined in near-real time.     

Model simulations of the impact of the 27-day solar rotation period on stratospheric ozone and temperature

Results are presented from two-year simulations of the effects of short-term solar ultraviolet (UV) variability using the Met. Office coupled chemistry-climate model. The model extends from the ground to 0.1 mbar and contains a complete range of chemical reactions allowing representation of all the main ozone formation and destruction processes in the stratosphere. The simulations were achieved by incorporating a 27-day oscillation in the pre-calculated model photolysis rates. Amplitudes for this signal were determined using solar spectral UV observations from the SOLar STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instrument. Two experiments were carried out, one in which the UV variability was included in both the photolysis and radiation schemes and one in which only the photolysis scheme was modified.

The model reproduced several main features of observed correlations between short-term solar UV variability and both ozone and temperature in the tropical upper stratosphere, including the downward propagation of the phase lag and sensitivities of ozone and temperature to solar UV which are similar in magnitude to those observed. In the lower stratosphere, the ozone response to solar UV variability has not been well characterised from observations. Both model runs show a reversal of the propagation of phase lag below 10mb. The model response was found to be different between the two runs indicating that radiatively induced dynamical effects may play a significant role in the ozone response to solar UV variability.     

Vertical TEC variations and model during low solar activity at a low latitude station,Xiamen

GPS-derived vertical TEC recorded at Xiamen (24.5°N, 118.1°E, geomagnetic latitude 13.2°N), China, during year 2006 is analyzed for the first time and compared to that predicted by ionosphere model SPIM recommend by ISO. A manifest seasonal anomaly is found with the high value during equinoctial season and low value during summer and winter season. Relative standard deviation for VTEC shows high value at around midnight and before sunrise. The correlation analysis exhibits that the variation of VTEC has a very weak relation with geomagnetic and solar activities (Dst, AP, SSN and F10.7). Comparative results reveal that the SPIM overestimates the observed VTEC at most of the time.     

Flight performance of a high resolution,high data rate solar ultraviolet telescope and spectrograph

The High Resolution Telescope and Spectrograph (HRTS) instrument has been flown three times on sounding rockets and has dramatically demonstrated the value of high resolution (spectral, spatial, and temporal) coupled with wide spectral and spatial coverage. Through the use of film as a detector, the HRTS can capture a large spectral and spatial range simultaneously. Because of the high spectral and spatial resolution, each exposure contains 10 million data points. After digitizing, this equates to a data collection rate of four megabits per second for a 20 second exposure. Because of the large film format, a set of HRTS exposures has recorded complete profiles of over 2800 emission lines simultaneously at 1000 different locations on the Sun. These emission lines originate in temperature regimes ranging from the temperature minimum to the corona. This allows a statistical analysis of temperature, pressure, density and velocity in many layers of the solar atmosphere.     

An empirical model for the variation of rain drop size distribution with rain rate at a few locations in southern India

A Joss–Waldvogel impact type disdrometer was installed at four different locations in the Indian peninsula during various periods from 2001 till date. The data are analysed to study the nature of rain drop size distribution (DSD) in this region. Out of the three well known distributions that describe DSD, namely, the Marshall–Palmer, Gamma and Lognormal, it has been found that Lognormal distribution fits the DSD in this region better than the other ones. Lognormal distributions for different rain rates were then derived by fitting the lognormal function to the data using a curve fitting software. Then the variation of fit parameters with rain rate was evaluated. Incorporating these variations, into the Lognormal distribution, an empirical equation that describes the DSD in this region for different rain rates was derived. Then this equation was tested with sample data from each of these stations. The data used for validation were not used for fitting lognormal equation to derive the fit parameters. The correlation between the DSD measured and derived using the empirical model was found to be quite good (0.9) except in some cases where the coefficient dropped to 0.75. The empirical model can be updated when more data are available.     

Predicting indices of the ionosphere response to solar activity for the ascending phase of the 25th solar cycle

The international reference ionosphere, IRI, and its extension to plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, models require reliable prediction of solar and ionospheric proxy indices of solar activity for nowcasting and forecasting of the ionosphere parameters. It is shown that IRI prediction errors could increase for the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the peak height hmF2 due to erroneous predictions of the ionospheric global IG index and the international sunspot number SSN1 index on which IRI and IRI-Plas models are built. Regression relation is introduced to produce daily SSN1 proxy index from new time series SSN2 index provided from June 2015, after recalibration of sunspots data. To avoid extra errors of the ionosphere model a new solar activity prediction (SAP) model for the ascending part of the solar cycle SC25 is proposed which expresses analytically the SSN1 proxy index and the 10.7-cm radio flux F10.7 index in terms of the phase of the solar cycle, Φ. SAP model is based on monthly indices observed during the descending part of SC24 complemented with forecast of time and amplitude for SC25 peak. The strength of SC25 is predicted to be less than that of SC24 as shown with their amplitudes for eight types of indices driving IRI-Plas model.