New index of long-term variations of galactic cosmic ray intensity

We find that the soft rigidity spectrum of the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) intensity variations for the maximum epoch and the hard rigidity spectrum for the minimum epoch calculated based on the neutron monitors experimental data (1960–2002) are related with the various dependence of the diffusion coefficient on the GCR particle’s rigidity for different epoch of solar activity. This dependence is stronger in the maximum epoch than in the minimum epoch of solar activity, and is provided by the essential temporal rearrangements of the structure of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) turbulence from the maxima to minima epoch of solar activity. We also show that the rigidity spectrum of GCR intensity variations is harder for the effective rigidities ∼(10–15) GV (by neutron monitors data), than for the effective rigidities ∼(25–30) GV (by neutron monitors and muon telescopes data). A general scenario of GCR modulation versus solar activity is settled on the essential temporal rearrangements of the structure of the IMF turbulence. Therefore, the temporal changes of the power law rigidity spectrum exponent can be considered as a vital (new) index to explain the 11-year variations of the GCR intensity. We assume that ∼(70–80)% of the changes of the amplitudes of the 11-year variations of GCR intensity is related with the changes of the IMF turbulence versus solar activity.     

Modeling and data analysis of a Forbush decrease

We study the Forbush decrease of the galactic cosmic ray intensity observed in 9–25 September 2005 using the experimental data and a newly developed time-dependent three dimensional modeling. We analyze neutron monitors and muon telescopes, and the interplanetary magnetic field data. We demonstrate a clear relationship between the rigidity (R) spectrum exponent (γ) of the Forbush decrease and the exponent (ν) of the power spectral density of the components of the interplanetary magnetic field in the frequency range of ∼ 10⁻⁶–10 ⁻⁵ Hz. We confirm that an inclusion of the time-dependent changes of the exponent ν makes the newly developed nonstationary three dimensional model of the Forbush decrease compatible with the experimental data. Also, we show that the changes of the rigidity spectrum exponent γ does not depend on the level of convection of the galactic cosmic rays stream by solar wind; depending on the changes of the exponent ν, i.e. on the state of the turbulence of the interplanetary magnetic field.     

Galactic cosmic ray modulation for sunspot cycle 23

We present a study of the galactic cosmic ray modulation for sunspot cycle 23. We use the monthly and the annual mean hourly, pressure corrected, data from neutron monitors of the global network (monthly rate is calculated as the average of the hourly pressure corrected values). We draw attention to an asymmetry in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery during odd and even cycles for the monthly mean hourly rate data. For over half a century of observations, we find that the recovery for the odd cycles is to a higher level than for the even cycles. Qualitatively the effect is ascribed to charged particle drifts in inhomogeneous interplanetary magnetic field. Even so it has not been possible to arrive at a quantitative, self-consistent, explanation in terms of drifts at higher and lower GCR rigidities. We also study the rigidity dependence of the amplitude of 11-year modulation over a wide range (1–200 GV) of GCR spectrum; it is a power law in rigidity with an exponent −1.22. We discuss the implication of these findings on quasi-linear diffusion theories of modulation. We reflect on GCR recovery pattern for 2006–2009.     

Flight safety implications of the extreme solar proton event of 23 February 1956

There is considerable speculation about the effects at aircraft altitudes resulting from extreme solar proton events. The ground level event (GLE) of 23 February 1956 (GLE 5), remains the largest solar proton event of the neutron monitor era in terms of its influence on count rates at monitors near sea level. During this GLE the count rate was increased by as much as 4760% (15-min average) at the Leeds monitor relative to the count rate from galactic cosmic radiation (GCR). Two modern models of the event cumulative solar proton spectrum for this event, a 6-parameter fit in energy and a 4-parameter Band fit in rigidity, are compared with 1-h of GCR at solar minimum. While effective doses calculated with CARI-7A for both models at low geomagnetic cutoff rigidities are indeed high when compared with GCR and can exceed recommended exposure limits, both GLE spectra exhibit a much stronger dependence on cutoff rigidity than GCR, and a larger fraction of the dose from neutrons. At locations with cutoff rigidities above 4.2 and 6.4?GV, respectively, the GLE effective doses are smaller than the GCR hourly dose. At locations with cutoff rigidities above about 4?GV, GCR was the dominant source of exposure in 10?h or less at all altitudes examined. This suggests that if a similar event occurs in the future, low- and mid-latitude flights at modern jet flight altitudes could be well-protected by Earth’s magnetic field.     

Dependence of the 27-day variation of cosmic rays on the global magnetic field of the Sun

We show that the higher range of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry of the solar wind speed in the positive polarity period (A > 0) than in the negative polarity period (A < 0) is one of the important reasons of the larger amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity in the period of 1995–1997 (A > 0) than in 1985–1987 (A < 0). Subsequently, different ranges of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry of the solar wind speed jointly with equally important corresponding drift effect are general causes of the polarity dependence of the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity. At the same time, we show that the polarity dependence is feeble for the last unusual minimum epoch of solar activity 2007–2009 (A < 0); the amplitude of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity shows only a tendency of the polarity dependence. We present a three dimensional (3-D) model of the 27-day variation of GCR based on the Parker’s transport equation. In the 3-D model is implemented a longitudinal variation of the solar wind speed reproducing in situ measurements and corresponding divergence-free interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) derived from the Maxwell’s equations. We show that results of the proposed 3-D modeling of the 27-day variation of GCR intensity for different polarities of the solar magnetic cycle are in good agreement with the neutron monitors experimental data. To reach a compatibility of the theoretical modeling with observations for the last minimum epoch of solar activity 2007–2009 (A < 0) a parallel diffusion coefficient was increased by ∼40%.     

Sunspot numbers,interplanetary magnetic field,and cosmic ray intensity at earth: Nexus for the twentieth century

The pivotal role played by the interplanetary magnetic field (B) in modulating galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity in the heliosphere is described. We show that the inverse correlation observed by Forbush (1958) between GCRs and sunspot numbers (SSNs) is reflected in high correlation between SSNs and B (cc = 0.94). The SSN data are available since 1700 and the derived B data since 1835. The paleo-cosmic ray data are available for several millennia in the form of ¹⁰Be radionuclide sequestered in polar ice. The data of the ion chambers (ICs) at the Cheltenham–Fredericksburg–Yakutsk (CFY) sites are combined to create a data string for 1937–1988. In turn, these data are used to extend the measurements of the low energy GCR ions (>0.1 GeV) at balloon altitudes at high latitudes in Russia to 1937. These data are then correlated to B and the fit parameters are used to extend the low energy ion data to 1900, creating the instrumental era GCR time series for the twentieth century. The derived GCR time series is compared to ¹⁰Be measured at two sites in Greenland, namely Dye 3 and NGRIP for 1900–2000 to check the internal consistency of datasets for the long-term trend. We find that the annual mean rate (%) for 1965 at NGRIP is an outlier. We replace it with the mean of 1964 and 1965 rates and construct a new re-normalized time series at NGIP, improving the agreement with the derived instrumental era GCR time series for the twentieth century as well. This should encourage its use by heliophysics community for varied applications.     

Empirical model of cosmic ray spectrum in energy interval 1 MeV–100 GeV during 11-year solar cycle

The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) are the main ionization source at altitude of ∼3–35 km in the atmosphere. For high latitude anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) component has also a significant influence on the atmospheric ionization. We propose an empirical model for differential spectra D(E) of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays in energy interval 1 MeV–100 GeV during solar cycle. In the model data are used which cover three solar cycles: 20, 22 and 23. The LEAP87, IMAX92, CAPRICE94, AMS98 and BESS experimental spectra for protons and alpha particles are fitted to the proposed empirical model. The modulated GCR differential spectra are compared with force-field approximation to the one-dimensional transport equation and with solutions of two-dimensional cosmic ray transport equation. For experimental spectra, the calculation of the model parameters is performed by Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm, applied to the special case of least squares. Algorithm that combines the rapid local convergence of Newton–Raphson method with globally convergent method for non-linear systems of equations is applied for theoretically obtained differential spectra. The described programmes are realized in algorithmic language C++. The proposed model gives practical possibility for investigation of experimental data from measurements of galactic cosmic rays and their anomalous component.     

27-day variations of the galactic cosmic ray intensity and anisotropy in the minimum of the 23rd solar activity cycle

We study the 27-day variations of the solar wind velocity, galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity and anisotropy in the last minimum epoch of solar activity (2007–2009, A < 0). The average amplitude of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray anisotropy (A27A) in the current minimum epoch of solar activity (2007–2009, A < 0) is lesser than in previous positive polarity period as it is expected from the drift theory. So, polarity dependence rule for the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy is fully kept. It is a universal principle for the amplitudes of the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy. At the same time, the average amplitude of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity (A27I) remains at the same level as for previous minimum epoch 1995–1997 (A > 0) showing by the same token an violation of its polarity dependence rule established earlier. We assume that this phenomenon could be generally related with the well established 27-day variation of the solar wind velocity being in anti-correlation with the similar changes of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity. Generally, a character of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry of spatial large-scale structure of the solar wind velocity (SWV) established in the recent minimum epoch, preferentially pronounces in the behavior of the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity than anisotropy. The formation of the 27-day variation of the GCR anisotropy preferentially takes place in a restricted disk like local vicinity in the helioequatorial region, whilst the 27-day variation of the GCR intensity is formed in the global three dimensional vicinity of the heliosphere.     

Modelling of galactic Carbon in an asymmetrical heliosphere: Effects of asymmetrical modulation conditions

Observations of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) from the two Voyager spacecraft inside the heliosheath indicate significant differences between them, suggesting that in addition to a possible global asymmetry in the north–south dimensions (meridional plane) of the heliosphere, it is also possible that different modulation (turbulence) conditions could exist between the two hemispheres of the heliosphere. We focus on illustrating the effects on GCR Carbon of asymmetrical modulation conditions combined with a heliosheath thickness that has a significant dependence on heliolatitude. To reflect different modulation conditions between the two heliospheric hemispheres in our numerical model, the enhancement of both polar and radial perpendicular diffusion off the ecliptic plane is assumed to differ from heliographic pole to pole. The computed radial GCR intensities at polar angles of 55° (approximating the Voyager 1 direction) and 125° (approximating the Voyager 2 direction) are compared at different energies and for both particle drift cycles. This is done in the context of illustrating how different values of the enhancement of both polar and radial perpendicular diffusion between the two hemispheres contribute to causing differences in radial intensities during solar minimum and moderate maximum conditions. We find that in the A > 0 cycle these differences between 55° and 125° change both quantitatively and qualitatively for the assumed asymmetrical modulation condition as reflected by polar diffusion, while in the A < 0 cycle, minute quantitative differences are obtained. However, when both polar and radial perpendicular diffusion have significant latitude dependences, major differences in radial intensities between the two polar angles are obtained in both polarity cycles. Furthermore, significant differences in radial intensity gradients obtained in the heliosheath at lower energies may suggest that the solar wind turbulence at and beyond the solar wind termination shock must have a larger latitudinal dependence.     

Effects of geomagnetic secular variations on cosmic ray access to the terrestrial environment

Taking advantage of the cutoff computations performed for more than a hundred locations from 1955 to 1995 [every 5 years; Shea, M.A., Smart, D.F. Vertical cutoff rigidities for cosmic ray stations since 1955, in: Proceedings of the ICRC 2001, Hamburg, Copernicus Gesellschaft, vol. 10, pp. 4063–4066, 2001], we carefully checked the relationship between the vertical cutoff rigidity and the McIlwain parameter introduced by Shea et al. [Shea, M.A., Smart, D.F., Gentile, L.C. Estimating cosmic ray vertical cutoff rigidities as a function of the McIlwain L-parameter for different epochs of the geomagnetic field. Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 48, 200–205, 1987]. We derived an updated algorithm that can be used outside the polar and equatorial regions, avoiding time consuming computations. Results for the European area and 1990 epoch suggest that the fast evaluation is accurate within 0.1 GV in 26 out of the 30 considered locations.     

An analytical model for the prediction of a micro-dosimeter response function

A rapid analytical procedure for the prediction of a micro-dosimeter response function in low Earth orbit (LEO), correlated with the Space Transportation System (STS, shuttle) Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter (TEPC) measurements is presented. The analytical model takes into consideration the energy loss straggling and chord length distribution of the detector, and is capable of predicting energy deposition fluctuations in a cylindrical micro-volume of arbitrary aspect ratio (height/diameter) by incoming ions through both direct and indirect (δ ray) events. At any designated (ray traced) target point within the vehicle, the model accepts the differential flux spectrum of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and/or trapped protons at LEO as input. On a desktop PC, the response function of TEPC for each ion in the GCR/trapped field is computed at the average rate of 30 s/ion. The ionizing radiation environment at LEO is represented by O’Neill’s GCR model (2004), covering charged particles in the 1 ? Z ? 28 range. O’Neill’s free space GCR model is coupled with the Langley Research Center (LaRC) angular dependent geomagnetic cutoff model to compute the transmission coefficient in LEO. The trapped proton environment is represented by a LaRC developed time dependent procedure which couples the AP8MIN/AP8MAX, Deep River Neutron Monitor (DRNM) and F10.7 solar radio frequency measurements. The albedo neutron environment is represented by the extrapolation of the Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation (AIR) measurements. The charged particle transport calculations correlated with STS 51 and 114 flights are accomplished by using the most recent version (2005) of the LaRC deterministic High charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport (HZETRN) code. We present the correlations between the TEPC model predictions (response function) and TEPC measured differential/integral spectra in the lineal energy (y) domain for both GCR and trapped protons, with the conclusion that the model correctly accounts for the increase in flux at low y values where energetic ions are the primary contributor. We further discuss that, even with the incorporation of angular dependency in the cutoffs, comparison of the GCR differential/integral flux between STS 51 and 114 TEPC measured data and current calculations indicates that there still exists an underestimation by the simulations at low to mid range y values. This underestimation is partly related the exclusion of the secondary pion particle production from the current version of HZETRN.     

Reports to COSPAR from the International Lunar Exploration Working Group (ILEWG)

In accordance with its charter, the International Lunar Exploration Working Group (ILEWG) reports to COSPAR, and a summary was given at the Beijing COSPAR 2006 Assembly on ILEWG activities conducted since the previous COSPAR 2004 assembly held in Paris. This included reports from the 6th and 7th ILEWG International Conference on Exploration and Utilization of the Moon, held respectively in Udaipur, India on 22–26 November 2004 (ICEUM6) and in Toronto, Canada on 18–23 September 2005 (ICEUM7). We give in this issue of Advances in Space Research the “lunar declarations” from these ICEUM conferences, as well as for the ICEUM8 conference held in Beijing immediately after the 2006 COSPAR Assembly. One year after the COSPAR Beijing assembly, the 9th ILEWG International Conference on Exploration and Utilization of the Moon (ICEUM9), was held in Sorrento, Italy on 18–23 September 2007. We report also in this issue the “Sorrento Lunar Declaration” in advance of the ILEWG formal report to be given at the COSPAR Assembly to be held in Montreal, Canada in July 2008.     

On the possibility to check the magnetosphere’s model by CR: The strong geomagnetic storm in November 2003

We report on a study of cosmic ray cutoff rigidity variations during the strong geomagnetic storm of 18–24 November 2003. We employed the most recent Tsyganenko magnetospheric model to represent the very strong disturbed Magnetosphere. We used this magnetic field for the cosmic ray trajectory calculations to determine the geomagnetic cutoff rigidity throughout this period of severe geomagnetic disturbance. We determine the cutoff rigidity changes during this period by two methods, by trajectory calculations and by the spectrographic global survey method. The values of the change of cutoff rigidities obtained by two different methods are correlated with the D_st and interplanetary magnetic field and plasma parameters and result in correlation coefficients in the range 0.63–0.84 for the various cosmic ray stations. The result of this study indicates that the most significant contributions to the cutoff rigidity changes are due to D_st variation although the influence of solar wind density and B_z and B_y components of IMF variations is significant.     

Sunspot activity and cosmic ray modulation at 1 a.u. for 1900–2013

The descent of sunspot cycle 23 to an unprecedented minimum of long duration in 2006–2009 led to a prolonged galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery to the highest level observed in the instrumental era for a variety of energetic charged particle species on Earth, over a wide range of rigidities. The remarkable GCR increase measured by several ground-based, balloon-borne, and detectors on a satellite is described and discussed. It is accompanied by a decrease in solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field at 1 a.u., reaching the lowest values since measurements of the solar wind began in October 1963; the solar polar field strength (μT) measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) is also significantly reduced compared to prior cycles since the start of the program in 1976, the polar field in the northern hemisphere reversed in June 2012 and again in February 2014, that in the southern hemisphere reversed in July 2013. If updates of WSO data confirm the second reversal in northern solar hemisphere, it would pose a serious challenge to the Dynamo Theory. The long-term change in solar behavior may have begun in 1992, perhaps earlier. The physical underpinnings of these solar changes need to be understood and their effect on GCR modulation processes clarified. The study discusses the recent phenomena in the context of GCR modulation since 1900. These happenings affected our empirical predictions for the key parameters for the next two sunspot cycles (they may be progressively less active than sunspot cycle 24) but it enhanced support for our prediction that solar activity is descending into a Dalton-like grand minimum in the middle of the twentyfirst century, reducing the frequency of the coronal mass ejections; they determine the space weather affecting the quality of life on Earth, radiation dose for hardware and human activities in space as well as the frequency of large Forbush decreases at 1 a.u.     

Rigidity spectrum of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in different epochs of solar activity

We study the temporal evolution of the power rigidity spectrum of the first (27 days) and the second (14 days) harmonics of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity measured by neutron monitors in the period of 1965–2002. The rigidity spectrum of these variations can be approximated by a power law. We show the rigidity spectra of the first and the second harmonics of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity have similar time profiles. These spectra are hard (γ ≈ 0.5 ± 0.1) and soft (γ ≈ 1.1 ± 0.2) during solar maximum and minimum activity, respectively. We ascribe this to the alternation of the sizes of the modulation regions responsible for the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in different epochs of solar activity. Especially, the average radial sizes of the modulation regions of the 27-day variation and the heliolatitudinal extension of the heliolongitudinal asymmetry are smaller during solar minimum than during solar maximum. We show also, that the temporal changes of the power rigidity spectra of the first and the second harmonics of the 27-day variation of the galactic cosmic ray intensity are in a negative correlation with the changes of the rigidity spectrum of the corresponding 11-year variation.     

Peculiarities of galactic cosmic ray Forbush effects during October–November 2003

Features of two successive Forbush effects of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in October–November 2003 have been studied based on the neutron monitors data. The rigidity spectrum of the galactic cosmic ray intensity in the course of the first Forbush effect (22–27 October) is gradually hardening, while the rigidity spectrum of the second Forbush effect (28 October–10 November) from the starting moment is very hard. As far, the energy range of the turbulence of the interplanetary magnetic field is in general responsible for the diffusion of galactic cosmic ray particles of the energy 5–50 GeV (to which neutron monitors are sensitive), we postulate that the gradually hardening (from day to day) of the rigidity spectrum of the first Forbush effect is associated with the enhancement of the power spectral density in the energy range of the interplanetary magnetic field turbulence caused by the large scale irregularities generated due to the interaction of the extending high speed disturbances with the background solar wind. The very hard rigidity spectrum (from the starting moment) of the second Forbush effect is generally associated with the well established new structure of the energy range of the interplanetary magnetic field turbulence enriched by the already created large scale irregularities. The gradually softening of the rigidity spectrum during the recovery phase of the second Forbush effect confirms that the disturbed interplanetary magnetic field turbulence step by step returns to the initial state.     

Variations in cosmic ray cutoff rigidities during the great geomagnetic storm of November 2004

A very strong interplanetary and magnetospheric disturbance observed on 7–13 November 2004 can be regarded as one of the strongest events during the entire period of space observations. In this paper we report on the studies of cosmic ray cutoff rigidity variations during 7–13 November 2004 showing how storm conditions can affect the direct cosmic ray access to the inner magnetosphere. Effective cutoff rigidities have been calculated for selected points on the ground by tracing trajectories of cosmic ray particles through the magnetospheric magnetic field of the “storm-oriented” Tsyganenko 2003 model. Cutoff rigidity variations have also been determined by the spectrographic global survey method on the basis of experimental data of the neutron monitor network. Relations between the calculated and experimental cutoff rigidities and the geomagnetic Dst-index and interplanetary parameters have been investigated. Correlation coefficients between the cutoff rigidities obtained by the trajectory tracing method and the spectrographic global survey method have been found to be in the limits 0.76–0.89 for all stations except the low-latitude station Tokyo (0.35). The most pronounced correlation has been revealed between the cutoff rigidities that exhibited a very large variation of ∼1–1.5 GV during the magnetic storm and the Dst index.     

α–ω Effect and peculiarities of the 27-day variations of the galactic cosmic rays intensity,solar wind and solar activity parameters

We show that the amplitudes of the 27-day variations of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity, solar wind and solar activity parameters have a periodicity with duration of three to four Carrington rotation periods (3–4 CRP). We assume that the general reason for this phenomenon may be related to similar cyclicity of topological structure of the solar magnetic field lines created owing to the asymmetry of turbulent solar dynamo and solar differential rotation transforming the Sun’s poloidal magnetic field to the toroidal (α–ω effect), and vice versa.