Perspective on space radiation for space flights in 2020–2040

The Sun undergoes several well known periodicities in activity, such as the Schwabe 11 year cycle, the Gleissberg 80–90 year cycle, the Suess 200–210 year cycle and the Halstatt 2200–2300 year cycle. In addition, there is evidence that the 20th century levels of solar activity are unusually high. The years 2020–2040 are expected to coincide with increased activity in human space flight beyond low Earth orbit. The solar cycles and the present level of solar activity are reviewed and their activities during the years 2020–2040 are discussed with a perspective on space radiation and the future program of space flight. It is prudent to prepare for continuing levels of high solar activity as well as for the low levels of the current deep minimum, which has corresponded to high galactic cosmic ray flux.     

Heavy ion contributions to organ dose equivalent for the 1977 galactic cosmic ray spectrum

Estimates of organ dose equivalents for the skin, eye lens, blood forming organs, central nervous system, and heart of female astronauts from exposures to the 1977 solar minimum galactic cosmic radiation spectrum for various shielding geometries involving simple spheres and locations within the Space Transportation System (space shuttle) and the International Space Station (ISS) are made using the HZETRN 2010 space radiation transport code. The dose equivalent contributions are broken down by charge groups in order to better understand the sources of the exposures to these organs. For thin shields, contributions from ions heavier than alpha particles comprise at least half of the organ dose equivalent. For thick shields, such as the ISS locations, heavy ions contribute less than 30% and in some cases less than 10% of the organ dose equivalent. Secondary neutron production contributions in thick shields also tend to be as large, or larger, than the heavy ion contributions to the organ dose equivalents.     

An update about recent developments of the PHITS code

PHITS (Particle and Heavy-Ion Transport code System) is a general-purpose three-dimensional Monte Carlo code, developed and maintained by RIST, JAEA and KEK in Japan together with Sihver et al. at Chalmers in Sweden. PHITS can deal with the transports of all varieties of hadrons and heavy ions with energies up to around 100 GeV/nucleon, and in this paper the current status of PHITS is presented. We introduce a relativistically covariant version of JQMD, called R-JQMD, that features an improved ground state initialization algorithm, and we will present the introduction of electron and photon transport in PHITS using EGS5, which have increased the energy region for the photon and energy transport from up to around 3 GeV to up to several hundred GeV depending on the atomic number of the target. We show how the accuracy in dose and fluence calculations can be improved by using tabulated cross sections. Benchmarking of shielding and irradiation effects of high energy protons in different materials relevant for shielding of accelerator facilities is also presented. In particular, we show that PHITS can be used for estimating the dose received by aircrews and personnel in space. In recent years, many countries have issued regulations or recommendations to set annual dose limitations for aircrews. Since estimation of cosmic-ray spectra in the atmosphere is an essential issue for the evaluation of aviation doses, we have calculated these spectra using PHITS. The accuracy of the atmospheric propagation simulation of cosmic-ray performed by PHITS has been well verified by experimental cosmic-ray spectra taken under various conditions. Based on a comprehensive analysis of the simulation results, an analytical model called “PARMA” has been proposed for instantaneously estimating the atmospheric cosmic-ray spectra below the altitude of 20 km. We have also performed preliminary simulations of long-term dose distribution measurements at the ISS performed with the joint ESA-FSA experiment MATROSHKA-R (MTR-R) led by the Russian Federation Institute of Biomedical Problems (IMBP) and the ESA supported experiment MATROSHKA (MTR), led by the German Aerospace Center (DLR). For the purpose of examining the applicability of PHITS to the shielding design in space, the absorbed doses in a tissue equivalent water phantom inside an imaginary space vessel has been estimated for different shielding materials of different thicknesses. The results confirm previous results which indicate that PHITS is a suitable tool when performing shielding design studies of spacecrafts.     

Comparison of the transport codes HZETRN,HETC and FLUKA for galactic cosmic rays

The HZETRN deterministic radiation code is one of several tools developed to analyze the effects of harmful galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events on mission planning and shielding for astronauts and instrumentation. This paper is a comparison study involving the two Monte Carlo transport codes, HETC–HEDS and FLUKA and the deterministic transport code, HZETRN. Each code is used to transport an ion from the 1977 solar minimum GCR spectrum impinging upon a 20 g/cm² aluminum slab followed by a 30 g/cm² water slab. This research is part of a systematic effort of verification and validation to quantify the accuracy of HZETRN and determine areas where it can be improved. Comparisons of dose and dose equivalent values at various depths in the water slab are presented in this report. This is followed by a comparison of the proton and forward, backward and total neutron flux at various depths in the water slab. Comparisons of the secondary light ion ²H, ³H, ³He and ⁴He fluxes are also examined.     

空间辐射场蒙特卡罗模拟计算方法研究

对利用蒙特卡罗方法对由银河宇宙射线引起的空间辐射场各成分进行计算的方法进行了调研,对计算模型的建立以及计算过程中通常使用的方差减小技术进行分析,给出了美国的Roesler等人利用FLUKA程序以及加拿大Anid等人利用MCNPX程序计算得到的由银河宇宙射线引起的空间辐射场各量值及其与实验结果的比较,验证了计算方法与计算模型的可靠性。对任意航线空间辐射场剂量分布预评估方法进行分析,给出了由银河宇宙射线引起的空间辐射场的基本特征。     

Change in the rigidity dependence of the galactic cosmic ray modulation in 2008–2009

Observations of charged particle fluxes in the stratosphere of the polar regions represent the cosmic rays variations with energy above 100 MeV. At the end of 2009 these fluxes reached the highest level for the time of observations from mid 1957 and were by 17% higher than the previous extremum value of May 1965. In the mean time the ground-based neutron monitors showed the remarkably less count rate enhancement. These results argue for the significant change in the energy spectrum of incoming particles in 2008–2009 in the energy range of ∼100–1500 MeV/n.     

Galactic cosmic ray modulation for sunspot cycle 23

We present a study of the galactic cosmic ray modulation for sunspot cycle 23. We use the monthly and the annual mean hourly, pressure corrected, data from neutron monitors of the global network (monthly rate is calculated as the average of the hourly pressure corrected values). We draw attention to an asymmetry in the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) recovery during odd and even cycles for the monthly mean hourly rate data. For over half a century of observations, we find that the recovery for the odd cycles is to a higher level than for the even cycles. Qualitatively the effect is ascribed to charged particle drifts in inhomogeneous interplanetary magnetic field. Even so it has not been possible to arrive at a quantitative, self-consistent, explanation in terms of drifts at higher and lower GCR rigidities. We also study the rigidity dependence of the amplitude of 11-year modulation over a wide range (1–200 GV) of GCR spectrum; it is a power law in rigidity with an exponent −1.22. We discuss the implication of these findings on quasi-linear diffusion theories of modulation. We reflect on GCR recovery pattern for 2006–2009.     

Pion and electromagnetic contribution to dose: Comparisons of HZETRN to Monte Carlo results and ISS data

Recent work has indicated that pion production and the associated electromagnetic (EM) cascade may be an important contribution to the total astronaut exposure in space. Recent extensions to the deterministic space radiation transport code, HZETRN, allow the production and transport of pions, muons, electrons, positrons, and photons. In this paper, the extended code is compared to the Monte Carlo codes, Geant4, PHITS, and FLUKA, in slab geometries exposed to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) boundary conditions. While improvements in the HZETRN transport formalism for the new particles are needed, it is shown that reasonable agreement on dose is found at larger shielding thicknesses commonly found on the International Space Station (ISS). Finally, the extended code is compared to ISS data on a minute-by-minute basis over a seven day period in 2001. The impact of pion/EM production on exposure estimates and validation results is clearly shown. The Badhwar–O’Neill (BO) 2004 and 2010 models are used to generate the GCR boundary condition at each time-step allowing the impact of environmental model improvements on validation results to be quantified as well. It is found that the updated BO2010 model noticeably reduces overall exposure estimates from the BO2004 model, and the additional production mechanisms in HZETRN provide some compensation. It is shown that the overestimates provided by the BO2004 GCR model in previous validation studies led to deflated uncertainty estimates for environmental, physics, and transport models, and allowed an important physical interaction (π/EM) to be overlooked in model development. Despite the additional π/EM production mechanisms in HZETRN, a systematic under-prediction of total dose is observed in comparison to Monte Carlo results and measured data.     

Comparison of the transport codes HZETRN,HETC and FLUKA for a solar particle event

The protection of astronauts and instrumentation from galactic cosmic rays and solar particle events is one of the primary constraints associated with mission planning in low earth orbit or deep space. To help satisfy this constraint, several computational tools have been developed to analyze the effectiveness of various shielding materials and structures exposed to space radiation. These tools are now being carefully scrutinized through a systematic effort of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification. In this benchmark study, the deterministic transport code HZETRN is compared to the Monte Carlo transport codes HETC-HEDS and FLUKA for a 30 g/cm² water target protected by a 20 g/cm² aluminum shield exposed to a parameterization of the February 1956 solar particle event. Neutron and proton fluences as well as dose and dose equivalent are compared at various depths in the water target. The regions of agreement and disagreement between the three codes are quantified and discussed, and recommendations for future work are given.     

Comparison of organ dose and dose equivalent for human phantoms of CAM vs. MAX

For the evaluation of organ dose and dose equivalent of astronauts on space shuttle and the International Space Station (ISS) missions, the CAMERA models of CAM (Computerized Anatomical Male) and CAF (Computerized Anatomical Female) of human tissue shielding have been implemented and used in radiation transport model calculations at NASA. One of new human geometry models to meet the “reference person” of International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) is based on detailed Voxel (volumetric and pixel) phantom models denoted for male and female as MAX (Male Adult voXel) and FAX (Female Adult voXel), respectively. We compared the CAM model predictions of organ doses to those of MAX model, since the MAX model represents the male adult body with much higher fidelity than the CAM model currently used at NASA. Directional body-shielding mass was evaluated for over 1500 target points of MAX for specified organs considered to be sensitive to the induction of stochastic effects. Radiation exposures to solar particle event (SPE), trapped protons, and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) were assessed at the specific sites in the MAX phantom by coupling space radiation transport models with the relevant body-shielding mass. The development of multiple-point body-shielding distributions at each organ made it possible to estimate the mean and variance of organ doses at the specific organ. For the estimate of doses to the blood forming organs (BFOs), data on active marrow distributions in adult were used to weight the bone marrow sites over the human body. The discrete number of target points of MAX organs resulted in a reduced organ dose and dose equivalent compared to the results of CAM organs especially for SPE, and should be further investigated. Differences of effective doses between the two approaches were found to be small (<5%) for GCR.     

Using high-energy proton fluence to improve risk prediction for consequences of solar particle events

The potential for exposure to large solar particle events (SPEs) with high energy levels is a major concern during interplanetary transfer and extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar and Mars surface. Previously, we have used data from the last 5 solar cycles to estimate percentiles of dose to a typical blood-forming organ (BFO) for a hypothetical astronaut in a nominally shielded spacecraft during a 120-d lunar mission. As part of this process, we made use of complete energy spectra for 34 large historical SPEs to calculate what the BFO mGy-Eq dose would have been in the above lunar scenario for each SPE. From these calculated doses, we then developed a prediction model for BFO dose based solely on an assumed value of integrated fluence above 30 MeV (Φ₃₀) for an otherwise unspecified future SPE. In this study, we reasoned that since BFO dose is determined more by protons with higher energies than by those with lower energies, more accurate BFO dose prediction models could be developed using integrated fluence above 60 (Φ₆₀) and above 100 MeV (Φ₁₀₀) as predictors instead of Φ₃₀. However to calculate the unconditional probability of a BFO dose exceeding a pre-specified limit (“BFO dose risk”), one must also take into account the distribution of the predictor (Φ_30,Φ₆₀, or Φ₁₀₀), as estimated from historical SPEs. But Φ₆₀ and Φ₁₀₀ have more variability, and less available historical information on which to estimate their distributions over many SPE occurrences, than does Φ₃₀. Therefore, when estimating BFO dose risk there is a tradeoff between increased BFO dose prediction at a given energy threshold and decreased accuracy of models for describing the distribution of that threshold over future SPEs as the threshold increases. Even when taking the second of these two factors into account, we still arrived at the conclusion that overall prediction improves as the energy level threshold increases from 30 to 60 to 100 MeV. These results can be applied to the development of approaches to improve radiation protection of astronauts and the optimization of mission planning for future space missions.     

Stratospheric polar vortex as a possible reason for temporal variations of solar activity and galactic cosmic ray effects on the lower atmosphere circulation

Possible reasons for the temporal instability of long-term effects of solar activity (SA) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) variations on the lower atmosphere circulation were studied. It was shown that the detected earlier ∼60-year oscillations of the amplitude and sign of SA/GCR effects on the troposphere pressure at high and middle latitudes (Veretenenko and Ogurtsov, Adv.Space Res., 2012) are closely related to the state of a cyclonic vortex forming in the polar stratosphere. The intensity of the vortex was found to reveal a roughly 60-year periodicity affecting the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and the character of SA/GCR effects. An intensification of both Arctic anticyclones and mid-latitudinal cyclones associated with an increase of GCR fluxes at minima of the 11-year solar cycles is observed in the epochs of a strong polar vortex. In the epochs of a weak polar vortex SA/GCR effects on the development of baric systems at middle and high latitudes were found to change the sign. The results obtained provide evidence that the mechanism of solar activity and cosmic ray influences on the lower atmosphere circulation involves changes in the evolution of the stratospheric polar vortex.     

空间粒子辐射对卫星中集成芯片的影响

本文分析了在“风云一号(B)”气象卫星环境中各种粒子辐射在集成芯片临界体积中产生的能量沉积, 即LET(线性能量传输);得到了银河宇宙线1≤Z≤28、银河宇宙线异常成分(C、N、O、Ne、Ar、Fe)、内辐射带质子等产生的LET, 计算了其分别产生的单粒于事件(SEU)翻转率。     

Statistical validation of HZETRN as a function of vertical cutoff rigidity using ISS measurements

Measurements taken in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) onboard the International Space Station (ISS) and transit vehicles have been extensively used to validate radiation transport models. Primarily, such comparisons were done by integrating measured data over mission or trajectory segments so that individual comparisons to model results could be made. This approach has yielded considerable information but is limited in its ability to rigorously quantify and differentiate specific model errors or uncertainties. Further, as exploration moves beyond LEO and measured data become sparse, the uncertainty estimates derived from these validation cases will no longer be applicable. Recent improvements in the underlying numerical methods used in HZETRN have resulted in significant decreases in code run time. Therefore, the large number of comparisons required to express error as a function of a physical quantity, like cutoff rigidity, are now possible. Validation can be looked at in detail over any portion of a flight trajectory (e.g. minute by minute) such that a statistically significant number of comparisons can be made. This more rigorous approach to code validation will allow the errors caused by uncertainties in the geometry models, environmental models, and nuclear physics models to be differentiated and quantified. It will also give much better guidance for future model development. More importantly, it will allow a quantitative means of extrapolating uncertainties in LEO to free space. In this work, measured data taken onboard the ISS during solar maximum are compared to results obtained with the particle transport code HZETRN. Comparisons are made at a large number (∼77,000) of discrete time intervals, allowing error estimates to be given as a function of cutoff rigidity. It is shown that HZETRN systematically underestimates exposure quantities at high cutoff rigidity. The errors are likely associated with increased angular variation in the geomagnetic field near the equator, the lack of pion production in HZETRN, and errors in high energy nuclear physics models, and will be the focus of future work.     

Two intense Forbush decreases of solar activity cycle 22

We study two intense Forbush decreases that occurred during two adjacent SOLTIP (Solar connection of Transient Interplanetary Processes) intervals; namely SOLTIP 1 (22–27 March 1991) and SOLTIP 2 (1–17 June 1991); galactic cosmic ray intensity at the depth of the second Forbush decrease was the lowest ever recorded since continuous monitoring by Climax neutron monitor began in 1951 (58% below the solar minimum value of 1954), indicating extreme conditions in the heliosphere that prevented galactic cosmic rays from reaching the Earth. These decreases were seen propagating in outer heliosphere by the deep space missions Voyagers 1, 2 and Pioneer 10, 11, with suitable time delays. We analyze hourly, pressure corrected, neutron monitor data from the global sites in both hemispheres, and muon telescopes located underground; they respond to 10–300 GV range of the galactic cosmic ray spectrum. This circumstance provides us an ideal opportunity to study the rigidity dependence of the amplitudes of the two Forbush decreases. In both cases the amplitude is found to be a power law in rigidity, with negative exponents.