A nonlinear background removal method for seismo-ionospheric anomaly analysis under a complex solar activity scenario: A case study of the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake

A precise determination of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomaly variations that are likely associated with large earthquakes as observed by global positioning system (GPS) requires the elimination of the ionospheric effect from irregular solar electromagnetic radiation. In particular, revealing the seismo-ionospheric anomalies when earthquakes occurred during periods of high solar activity is of utmost importance. To overcome this constraint, a multiresolution time series processing technique based on wavelet transform applicable to global ionosphere map (GIM) TEC data was used to remove the nonlinear effect from solar radiation for the earthquake that struck Tohoku, Japan, on 11 March, 2011. As a result, it was found that the extracted TEC have a good correlation with the measured solar extreme ultraviolet flux in 26–34 nm (EUV_26–34) and the 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F_10.7). After removing the influence of solar radiation origin in GIM TEC, the analysis results show that the TEC around the forthcoming epicenter and its conjugate were significantly enhanced in the afternoon period of 8 March 2011, 3 days before the earthquake. The spatial distributions of the TEC anomalous and extreme enhancements indicate that the earthquake preparation process had brought with a TEC anomaly area of size approximately 1650 and 5700 km in the latitudinal and longitudinal directions, respectively.     

Ionospheric disturbance associated with radiation accidents of Fukushima I nuclear power plant damaged by the M9.0 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

Transient ionospheric disturbances in the total electron content (TEC) are examined before and after the M9.0 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake to find ionospheric responses to the radiation caused by Fukushima I nuclear power plant accident, which was damaged by the earthquake and tsunamis. The TEC is derived from records of a ground-based receiving network of GPS Earth Observation Network (GEONET) in Japan. Both small enhancement and disturbance of TEC were detected over the nuclear power plant after the radiation was suddenly enhanced on March 14 of 2011, while similar signatures were not detected in the other sudden radiation enhancements. Further, no continuous enhancement and disturbance lasting for more than an hour were observed over the nuclear power plant. Therefore, the results indicate that radioactive materials may not cause the ionospheric disturbance or disturb the ionosphere in highly specific circumstance even if such effects exist.     

Seismo-ionospheric anomalies in total electron content of the GIM and electron density of DEMETER before the 27 February 2010 M8.8 Chile earthquake

In this paper we examine the pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies by the total electron content (TEC) extracted from GIM (global ionospheric map) and the electron density (Ne) observed by the DEMETER (Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions) satellite during the 2010 M8.8 Chile earthquake. Temporal variations show the nighttime TEC and Ne simultaneously increase 9–19 days before the earthquake. A cross-comparison of data recorded during the period of 1 February to 3 March in 2006–2010 confirms the above temporal anomalies specifically appear in 2010. The spatial analyses show that the anomalies tend to appear over the epicenter.     

Removing Solar Radiation Based on the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method for Seismo-Ionospheric Anomaly Before the M9.0 Tohoku Earthquake

The ionospheric effect from solar activity can be seen as the background in the process of detecting the ionospheric precursor prior to strong earthquakes. The ionospheric variation induced by the forthcoming earthquake can be covered by the strong solar background during the period of high solar activity. The issue of how to remove the ionospheric effect from solar radiation is of outstanding significance. In this paper, a method of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) is used to eliminate the solar background. As a case study, the global ionospheric map TEC before the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake on 11 March 2011 is analyzed. After the effect of solar radiation is removed using the EMD method, the precursor of the imminent earthquake is more obvious. The ionospheric anomaly had a local character and only appeared close to the earthquake epicenter while the useful signals were covered by the solar radiation background with traditional method, which implies that the EMD method is effective in eliminating solar radiation background.      

GPS total electron content and surface latent heat flux variations before the 11 March 2011 M9.0 Sendai earthquake

The present paper describes the variations of the GPS total electron content (TEC) from the International GNSS service network and surface latent heat flux (SLHF) from the Scientific Computing Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) before the 11 March 2011 M9.0 Sendai earthquake, respectively. The analysis shows pronounced enhancements in the GPS TEC and SLHF a few days prior to the earthquake event. The maximum increase in the GPS TEC was about 30 TECu with an extended spatial distribution on a geomagnetically quiet day (Dst ? −20 nT, between two moderate geomagnetic storms), 8 March, 3 days prior to the earthquake. This giant positive disturbance was possibly associated with the impending disastrous earthquake and contributed from the enhanced solar radiation. Moreover, there were several anomalous regions of SLHF on the global map, but an area of enhanced SLHF very close to the epicenter. The purpose of this paper is to report the existence of the changes in surface and ionosphere, and show the potential application of multi-source data to identify seismic precursors.     

Variations of ionospheric total electron content before three strong earthquakes in the Qinghai-Tibet region

We investigate the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomalies occurred in the Qinghai-Tibet region before three large earthquakes (M > 7.0). The temporal and spatial TEC variations were used to detect the ionospheric possible precursors of these earthquakes. We identified two TEC enhancements in the afternoon local time 9 days and 2–3 days before each earthquake, between which a TEC decrement occurred 3–6 days before earthquakes. These anomalies happened in the area of about 30° in latitude and the maximum is localized equatorward from the epicenters. These TEC anomalies can be found in all three earthquakes regardless the geomagnetic conditions. The features of these anomalies have something in common and may have differences from those caused by geomagnetic storms. Our results suggest that these ionospheric TEC perturbations may be precursors of the large earthquakes.     

Multi precursors analysis associated with the powerful Ecuador (MW = 7.8) earthquake of 16 April 2016 using Swarm satellites data in conjunction with other multi-platform satellite and ground data

After DEMETER satellite mission (2004–2010), the launch of the Swarm satellites (Alpha (A), Bravo (B) and Charlie (C)) has created a new opportunity in the study of earthquake ionospheric precursors. Nowadays, there is no doubt that multi precursors analysis is a necessary phase to better understand the LAIC (Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere Coupling) mechanism before large earthquakes. In this study, using absolute scalar magnetometer, vector field magnetometer and electric field instrument on board Swarm satellites, GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements, MODIS-Aqua satellite and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) data, the variations of the electron density and temperature, magnetic field, TEC (Total Electron Content), LST (Land Surface Temperature), AOD (Aerosol Optical Depth) and SKT (SKin Temperature) have been surveyed to find the potential seismic anomalies around the strong Ecuador (M_w = 7.8) earthquake of 16 April 2016. The four solar and geomagnetic indices: F10.7, D_st, K_p and a_p were investigated to distinguish whether the preliminary detected anomalies might be associated with the solar-geomagnetic activities instead of the seismo-ionospheric anomalies. The Swarm satellites (A, B and C) data analysis indicate the anomalies in time series of electron density variations on 7, 11 and 12 days before the event; the unusual variations in time series of electron temperature on 8 days preceding the earthquake; the analysis of the magnetic field scalar and vectors data show the considerable anomalies 52, 48, 23, 16, 11, 9 and 7 days before the main shock. A striking anomaly is detected in TEC variations on 1 day before earthquake at 9:00 UTC. The analysis of MODIS-Aqua night-time images shows that LST increase unusually on 11 days prior to main shock. In addition, the AOD variations obtained from MODIS measurements reach the maximum value on 10 days before the earthquake. The SKT around epicentral region presents anomalous higher value about 40 days before the earthquake. It should be noted that the different lead times of the observed anomalies could be acknowledged based on a reasonable LAIC earthquake mechanism. Our results emphasize that the Swarm satellites measurements play an undeniable role in progress the studies of the ionospheric precursors.     

Statistical seismo-ionospheric precursors of M7.0+ earthquakes in Circum-Pacific seismic belt by GPS TEC measurements

The Circum-Pacific seismic belt is the region heavily affected by earthquakes in the world. The relationship between earthquake (e.g., the geographic location, occurrence time, magnitude, and focal depth) and ionospheric anomalies in the belt was investigated using 100 M7.0+ earthquakes during 2006–2015. The ground-based GPS measurements and global ionosphere map (GIM) data were used for the analyses of the ionospheric variations preceding the earthquakes. The results indicated that the occurrence rate of total electron content (TEC) anomalies was proportional to the magnitude and inversely proportional to the focal depth to a certain degree, and the occurrence frequency of anomalies had a rising trend with the days getting close to the main shock. The occurrence rate of TEC anomalies in the Southern hemisphere was larger than that in the Northern hemisphere. Besides, the spatial characteristics of TEC anomalies showed that the anomalies in low-middle latitudes did not coincide with the epicenter, sometimes the anomalies were also observed in the corresponding conjugated region. However, the TEC anomalies in the high latitude usually appeared around the epicenter and within the seismogenic zone while no TEC anomalies appeared in the conjugated area. These results may have potential applications to the earthquake prediction in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt.     

Ionospheric anomalies of local earthquakes detected by GPS TEC measurements using data from Tashkent and Kitab stations

This paper reports the ionospheric anomalies observed during strong local earthquakes (M?5.0) which occurred mostly in and around Uzbekistan in seismically active zones, during years 2006 to 2009 within approximately 1000 km distance from the observing GPS stations located in Tashkent and Kitab, Uzbekistan. The solar and geomagnetic conditions were quiet during occurrence of the selected strong earthquakes. We produce Total Electron Content (TEC) time series over both sites and apply them to detect anomalous TEC signals preceding or accompanying the local earthquakes. The results show anomalous increase or decrease of TEC before or during the earthquakes. In general the anomalies occurred 1–7 days before the earthquakes as ionospheric electromagnetic precursors. To identify the anomalous values of TEC we calculated differential TEC (dTEC). dTEC is obtained by subtracting monthly averaged diurnal vTEC from the values of observed vTEC at each epoch. This procedure removes normal diurnal variations of vTEC. The present results are in good agreement with the previous observations on ionospheric earthquake precursors reported by various researchers.     

Pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies before three major earthquakes by GPS-TEC and GIM-TEC data during 2015–2017

The dual-frequency satellite-based measurements from Global Positioning System (GPS) may provide feasible ways of studying and potentially detecting of earthquake (EQ) related anomalies in the ionosphere. In this paper, GPS based Total Electron Content (TEC) data are studied for three major M?>?7.0 EQs in Nepal and Iran-Iraq border during 2015–2017 by implementing statistical procedures on temporal and spatial scale. Previous studies presented different time interval of pre-seismic ionospheric anomalies, however, this study showed that EQs ionospheric precursors may occur within 10?days. Furthermore, the ionospheric anomalies on the suspected day occurred during UT?=?08:00–12:00?h before the main shock. The Global Ionospheric Map TEC (GIM-TEC) data retrieved over the epicenter of M7.8 (Nepal EQ) showed a significant increase of 6 TECU on April 24, 2015 (one day before the main shock), which is recorded by the ground GPS station data of Islamabad (station lies within the EQ preparation zone). Furthermore, the spatial GIM-TEC result imply significant anomalies over the epicenter during the time interval between UT?=?08:00–12:00?h (LT?=?13:00–17:00). For M7.3 (Nepal EQ), the TEC anomalies were detected on May 10, 2015 (2?days before the event) in the temporal data. The spatial TEC data imply the huge clouds over the epicenter at about UT?=?08:00–12:00?h on May 10, 2015, that may be associated with this EQ in the quiet geomagnetic storm conditions. Similarly, temporal and spatial TEC showed anomaly on November 3, 2017, during UT?=?08:00–12:00 (9?days before the Iran-Iraq border EQ) after implementing the statistical method on it. Conversely, there exists a short-term but low magnitude TEC anomaly synchronized with a geomagnetic storm on November 7–8, 2017 (4 to 5?days prior to M7.3 Iran-Iraq border EQ). The diurnal and hourly GIM-TEC and VTEC data also imply the execution of ionospheric anomalies within 10?days prior to all events. All these positive anomalies in TEC may be due to the existence of a huge energy from the epicenter during the EQ preparation period.     

Contribution of ionospheric TEC anomalies to detecting the seismic precursors related to the 2008 Oran-Algeria event

The ionospheric anomalies observed before any notable earthquake have become the subject of predictive research in the field of seismo-ionospheric coupling and/or Solid Earth-Atmosphere. In this paper, the concept of ionospheric modeling has been applied using total electronic content (TEC); derived from dual-frequency GPS recordings from about sixty permanent geodetic stations. The study and the analysis of the anomalous TEC variations, quantifiable on a regional scale, allowed us to detect the principal precursors of the M_w 5.5 earthquake that hit Oran on June 06th, 2008. The envisaged analytical approach is based principally on the time delays estimation relating to the seismic responses from the triggering (lithospheric seismic source) until their recording in data Rinex (GPS_IGS stations) through the reflection system of the electromagnetic waves on the ionospheric level (F2-layer).Indeed, in term of location, the longitude-latitude coordinates of the Oran event epicenter (0.658°W, 35.883°N) affecting the coastal margin of Western Algeria without too much material damage. Although the magnitude of this earthquake is qualified moderate (M_w 5.5, seismic intensity scale V-VI), one can observe apparent disturbances in the terrestrial electromagnetic spectrum associated with ionospheric TEC variations. In the domain of geodetic data analysis, we have noted a significant increase in the ionospheric TEC, which announces the arrival of a seismic precursor several days before the main studied event. Against this background, we emphasize that any seismic event, of significant magnitude, often carries information associated with other variants involved in the package of earthquake studied. Among these variants we evoke the effect of the magnetic field and the effect of the surrounding environment, etc. As for the specific behavior of the GPS_TEC signal, obtained from the Rinex data, and its interaction with the associated seismic activity, we highlight the existence of a spectral conformity between the geomagnetic field and that of the TEC content (spontaneous polarization of the TEC).Finally, we have just confirmed the effectiveness of this forecasting approach which relates the seismo-ionospheric precursors that are embedded in the physical trace of the electromagnetic signal relative to significant and/or moderate earthquakes (M ≥ 5); such as the envisaged case of the 2008 Oran event.     

Ionospheric disturbances on 8 September, 2010: Was it connected with the incoming moderate Chongqing earthquake?

Earthquake prediction stimulates the searches for a correlation between seismic activity and ionospheric anomalies. Contrary to common focuses on strong earthquakes, we report the ionospheric disturbances, 2 days before a moderate Ms = 4.7 Chongqing earthquake (29.4°N, 105.5°E, depth = 7.0 km, occurred at 21:21 LT, 10 September, 2010) with the data of ground-based ionosondes and IGS receivers. The data covering the period under the quiet geomagnetic conditions and a geomagnetic storm was analyzed with upper and lower bounds. It is found that there were significant enhancements of foF2 and total electron content (TEC) on the afternoon of 8 September, 2010, with a limited area close to the epicentre, which was different from the feature of ionospheric perturbations triggered by the geomagnetic storm on 15 September. Taking into account the heliogeomagnetical condition, we conclude that the observed ionospheric enhancements were very likely associated with the forthcoming moderate Chongqing earthquake, which implies that the relationship between the amplitudes of ionospheric disturbances and earthquakes is very complicated.     

On the detection of anomalous seismo-ionospheric behavior in the presence of space weather stimuli for large earthquakes

Anomalous behavior of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) prior to earthquake has been observed in many studies. Evidence of such seismo-ionospheric coupling effects suggests that it is plausible to rely on TEC signatures for early earthquake warning. However, the detection of pre-earthquake TEC anomalies (PETA) has not been adopted in practice due to two pertinent issues. Firstly, the effects of space weather activity can affect TEC levels and cause anomalous behavior in the TEC. Usually arbitrary thresholds are set for space weather indices to eliminate TEC anomaly due to space weather effects. Secondly, the choice regarding moving time-window length used to characterise background variation of TEC within the statistical envelope approach has an effect on detection of PETA. While the rule-of-thumb in selecting the moving window length is to have a time window capable of capturing background variability and short-term fluctuations, the length of the time window used in the literature varies with little justification. In this study, a critical examination is conducted on the statistical envelope approach and in particular, to eliminate the effect of space weather activity without the use of arbitrary space indices to detect PETA. A two-part PETA identification procedure is proposed, consisting of wavelet analyses isolating non-earthquake TEC contributions, followed by the statistical envelope method using a moving window length standardized based on observed periodicities and statistical implications is suggested. The approach is tested on a database of 30 large earthquakes (M?≥?7.0). The proposed procedure shows that PETA can be detected prior to earthquakes at higher confidence levels without the need to separately check for space weather activity. More importantly, the procedure was able to detect PETA for studies where it was previously reported that PETA could not be detected or detected convincingly.     

TEC variability near northern EIA crest and comparison with IRI model

Monthly median values of hourly total electron content (TEC) is obtained with GPS at a station near northern anomaly crest, Rajkot (geog. 22.29°N, 70.74°E; geomag. 14.21°N, 144.9°E) to study the variability of low latitude ionospheric behavior during low solar activity period (April 2005 to March 2006). The TEC exhibit characteristic features like day-to-day variability, semiannual anomaly and noon bite out. The observed TEC is compared with latest International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) – 2007 model using options of topside electron density, NeQuick, IRI01-corr and IRI-2001 by using both URSI and CCIR coefficients. A good agreement of observed and predicted TEC is found during the daytime with underestimation at other times. The predicted TEC by NeQuick and IRI01-corr is closer to the observed TEC during the daytime whereas during nighttime and morning hours, IRI-2001 shows lesser discrepancy in all seasons by both URSI and CCIR coefficients.     

EUV-TEC proxy to describe ionospheric variability using satellite-borne solar EUV measurements: First results

Primary photoionisation of major ionospheric constituents is calculated from satellite-borne solar EUV measurements. Number densities of the background atmosphere are taken from the NRLMSISE-00 climatology. From the calculated ionisation rates, a proxy termed EUV-TEC, which is based on the global total ionisation is calculated, and describes the ionospheric response to solar EUV and its variability. The proxy is compared against the global mean ionospheric total electron content (TEC) derived from GPS data. Results show that the EUV-TEC proxy provides a better overall representation of global TEC than conventional solar indices like F10.7 do. The EUV-TEC proxy may be used for scientific research, and to describe the ionospheric effects on radio communication and navigation systems.     

Evaluation of the IRI-2016 and NeQuick electron content specification by COSMIC GPS radio occultation,ground-based GPS and Jason-2 joint altimeter/GPS observations

We examined performance of two empirical profile-based ionospheric models, namely IRI-2016 and NeQuick-2, in electron content (EC) and total electron content (TEC) representation for different seasons and levels of solar activity. We derived and analyzed EC estimates in several representative altitudinal intervals for the ionosphere and the plasmasphere from the COSMIC GPS radio occultation, ground-based GPS and Jason-2 joint altimeter/GPS observations. It allows us to estimate a quantitative impact of the ionospheric electron density profiles formulation in several altitudinal intervals and to examine the source of the model-data discrepancies of the EC specification from the bottom-side ionosphere towards the GPS orbit altitudes. The most pronounced model-data differences were found at the low latitude region as related to the equatorial ionization anomaly appearance. Both the IRI-2016 and NeQuick-2 models tend to overestimate the daytime ionospheric EC and TEC at low latitudes during all seasons of low solar activity. On the contrary, during high solar activity the model results underestimated the EC/TEC observations at low latitudes. We found that both models underestimated the EC for the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere regions for all levels of solar activity. For low solar activity, the underestimated EC from the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere can compensate the overestimation of the ionospheric EC and, consequently, can slightly decrease the resulted model overestimation of the ground-based TEC. For high solar activity, the underestimated EC from the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere leads to a strengthening of the model underestimation of the ground-based TEC values. We demonstrated that the major source of the model-data discrepancies in the EC/TEC domain comes from the topside ionosphere/plasmasphere system.     

Total electron content measurements in ionospheric physics

With the advent of modern global networks of dual-frequency Global Positioning System (GPS), total electron content (TEC) measurements along slant paths connecting GPS receivers and satellites at 22,000 km have become the largest data set available to ionospheric scientists. The TEC can be calculated from the time and phase delay in the GPS signal using the GPS Toolkit, but an unknown bias will remain. In addition, UHF/VHF radio beacons on board low-Earth-orbiting satellites can also be used to measure the electron content. However, the TEC measurements are obtained by integrating TEC differences between slant paths, but also contain biases. It is often necessary to use data assimilative algorithms like the Ionospheric Data Assimilation Three-Dimensional (IDA3D), and to treat both GPS- and LEO-beacon TEC measurements as relative data in order to conduct ionospheric studies.     

2004年11月一次磁暴期间全球电离层TEC扰动分析

利用全球分布的GPS原始观测数据提取的电离层总电子含量(TEC)分析了2004年11月6日至12日期间全球电离层暴的形态特点与发展过程.结果表明,11月8日磁暴主相期间电离层暴以大范围的强烈正暴为主,在11月10日的恢复相,Dst又一次降到最低值前后期间,电离层再次受到很强的扰动,大范围的正暴和负暴交替出现.这次磁暴期间夏季半球的负暴更加强烈,反映出负暴偏向于在夏季半球发生的季节变化特点.另外,磁暴期间,夜晚TEC值普遍比磁暴前的平静期要低,具体是什么机制导致还需要进一步收集数据和分析.      

Multi-station observation of ionospheric irregularities over South Africa during strong geomagnetic storms

This paper presents results pertaining to the response of the mid-latitude ionosphere to strong geomagnetic storms that occurred from 31 March to 02 April 2001 and 07–09 September 2002. The results are based on (i) Global Positioning Systems (GPSs) derived total electron content (TEC) variations accompanying the storm, (ii) ionosonde measurements of the ionospheric electrodynamic response towards the storms and (iii) effect of storm induced travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) on GPS derived TEC. Ionospheric data comprising of ionospheric TEC obtained from GPS measurements, ionograms, solar wind data obtained from Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and magnetic data from ground based magnetometers were used in this study. Storm induced features in vertical TEC (VTEC) have been obtained and compared with the mean VTEC of quiet days. The response of the mid-latitude ionosphere during the two storm periods examined may be characterised in terms of increased or decreased level of VTEC, wave-like structures in VTEC perturbation and sudden enhancement in hmF2 and h′F. The study reveals both positive and negative ionospheric storm effects on the ionosphere over South Africa during the two strong storm conditions. These ionospheric features have been mainly attributed to the travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) as the driving mechanism for the irregularities causing the perturbations observed. TEC perturbations due to the irregularities encountered by the satellites were observed on satellites with pseudo random numbers (PRNs) 15, 17, 18 and 23 between 17:00 and 23:00 UT on 07 September 2002.     

Higher order ionospheric propagation effects on GPS radio occultation signals

With the increasing number of remote sensing satellites using the GPS radio occultation technique for atmospheric sounding, the estimation of higher order ionospheric effects and their mitigation have become relevant and important. Due to long ionospheric limb paths, GPS signals are strongly affected by ionospheric refraction during radio occultation. Standard dual-frequency GPS measurements may be used to estimate the first order term of the refractive index. However, non-linear terms such as the second and third order ionospheric terms and ray path bending effects are not considered in occultation measurements so far. Analysing selected CHAMP–GPS occultation events different higher order ionospheric terms are estimated and their effects on dual-frequency range estimation and total electron content (TEC) estimation are discussed. We have found that the separation between the GPS L1 and L2 ray paths exceeds the kilometer level during occultation for a vertical TEC level of more than 160 TEC units. Corresponding errors in the GPS dual-frequency range estimation and TEC estimation are found to exceed the meter and 10 TEC units level, respectively.