Bottom side profiles for two close stations at the southern crest of the EIA: Differences and comparison with IRI-2012 and NeQuick2 for low and high solar activity

Bottom side electron density profiles for two stations at the southern crest of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA), São José dos Campos (23.1°S, 314.5°E, dip latitude 19.8°S; Brazil) and Tucumán (26.9°S, 294.6°E, dip latitude 14.0°S; Argentina), located at similar latitude and separated by only 20° in longitude, have been compared during equinoctial, winter and summer months under low (year 2008, minimum of the solar cycle 23/24) and high solar activity (years 2013–2014, maximum of the solar cycle 24) conditions. An analysis of parameters describing the bottom side part of the electron density profile, namely the peak electron density NmF2, the height hmF2 at which it is reached, the thickness parameter B₀ and the shape parameter B₁, is carried out. Further, a comparison of bottom side profiles and F-layer parameters with the corresponding outputs of IRI-2012 and NeQuick2 models is also reported. The variations of NmF2 at both stations reveal the absence of semi-annual anomaly for low solar activity (LSA), evidencing the anomalous activity of the last solar minimum, while those related to hmF2 show an uplift of the ionosphere for high solar activity (HSA). As expected, the EIA is particularly visible at both stations during equinox for HSA, when its strength is at maximum in the South American sector. Despite the similar latitude of the two stations upon the southern crest of the EIA, the anomaly effect is more pronounced at Tucumán than at São José dos Campos. The differences encountered between these very close stations suggest that in this sector relevant longitudinal-dependent variations could occur, with the longitudinal gradient of the Equatorial Electrojet that plays a key role to explain such differences together with the 5.8° separation in dip latitude between the two ionosondes. Furthermore at Tucumán, the daily peak value of NmF2 around 21:00 LT during equinox for HSA is in temporal coincidence with an impulsive enhancement of hmF2, showing a kind of “elastic rebound” under the action of the EIA. IRI-2012 and NeQuick2 bottom side profiles show significant deviations from ionosonde observations. In particular, both models provide a clear underestimation of the EIA strength at both stations, with more pronounced differences for Tucumán. Large discrepancies are obtained for the parameter hmF2 for HSA during daytime at São José dos Campos, where clear underestimations made by both models are observed. The shape parameter B₀ is quite well described by the IRI-2012 model, with very good agreement in particular during equinox for both stations for both LSA and HSA. On the contrary, the two models show poor agreements with ionosonde data concerning the shape parameter B₁.     

Midday bottomside electron density profiles during moderate solar activity and comparison with IRI-2001

Bottomside electron density (Ne-h) profiles during midday (10–14 h) are analyzed using modern digital ionosonde observations at a low-middle latitude station, New Delhi (28.6N, 77.2E, dip 42.4N), for the period from January 2003 to December 2003, pertaining to moderate solar activity (MSA). Each individual profile is normalized with respect to the peak height and density (hmF2, NmF2) of the F2-region. These profiles are compared with those obtained from the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2001) model. Bilitza [Bilitza, D. International Reference Ionosphere 2000. Radio Sci. 36 (2), 261–275, 2001] using both the options namely: Gulyaeva’s model [Gulyaeva, T.L. Progress in ionospheric informatics based on electron density profile analysis of ionograms. Adv. Space Res. 7 (6) 39–48, 1987] and B0 Tab. option [Bilitza, D., Radicella, S.M., Reinisch, B.W., Adeniyi, J.O., Mosert Gonzalez, M.E., Zhang, S.R., Obrou, O. New B0 and B1 models for IRI. Adv. Space Res. 25 (1), 89–95, 2000]. The study reveals that during summer and equinox, the IRI model with B0 Tab. option in general, produces better agreement with the observed median profiles, while the IRI predictions using Gulyaeva’s option, overestimate the electron density distribution at all the heights below the F2-peak. However, during winter, in general, the IRI model, using both the options, reveals shows fairly good agreement with the observations.     

Cross-hemisphere comparison of mid-latitude ionospheric variability during 1996–2009: Juliusruh vs. Hobart

Analysis of a long-time series of hourly median characteristics of the ionospheric plasma at two mid-latitude locations in the Northern and Southern hemisphere, Juliusruh (54.6N; 13.4E) and Hobart (42.9S; 147.3E), reveals patterns of their synchronous and independent variability. We studied timelines of GPS vTEC, ionogram-derived F2-layer peak electron density NmF2, ionospheric equivalent slab thickness τ, and their ratios at two locations during the complete 23rd solar cycle and its following period of the extremely low solar activity in 2008–2009. This study has also involved the comparative analysis of the observed data versus the model predictions by IRI-2012. During the high solar activity in 2000–2002, seasonal variations show a complicated cross-hemisphere behavior influenced by the winter and semi-annual anomalies, with the largest noon-time values of TEC and NmF2 observed around equinoxes. Strength of the winter anomaly in NmF2 was significantly greater at Juliusruh in comparison with Hobart. The winter anomaly in GPS vTEC values was much weaker than in NmF2 for the Northern hemisphere mid-latitudes and was entirely absent at the Southern hemisphere. Cross-hemisphere analysis of the equivalent slab thickness shows its clear seasonal dependence for all levels of solar activity: the day-time maximum τ_max is observed during local summer, whereas the day-time minimum τ_min is observed during local winter. The night-time values of τ were higher compared to the day-time values during the winter and equinox seasons. Comparative model-data study shows rather good IRI performance of the day-time NmF2 for mid-latitudes of both hemispheres and rather noticeable overestimations for the mid-night NmF2 values during high solar activity. Analysis of IRI vTEC demonstrates the model limitations, related with the absence of the plasmaspheric part, and actual demand in a reliable and standard ionosphere–plasmasphere model for analysis of GPS vTEC.     

An empirical model of electron density in low latitude at 600 km obtained by Hinotori satellite

An empirical model of electron density (Ne) was constructed by using the data obtained with an impedance probe on board Japanese Hinotori satellite. The satellite was in circular orbit of the height of 600 km with the inclination of 31 degrees from February 1981 to June 1982. The constructed model gives Ne at any local time with the time resolution of 90 min and between −25 and 25 degrees in magnetic latitude with its resolution of 5 degrees in the range of F_10.7 from 150 to 250 under the condition of K_p < 4. Spline interpolations are applied to the functions of day of year, geomagnetic latitude and solar local time, and linear interpolation is applied to the function of F_10.7. Longitude dependence of Ne is not taken into account. Our density model can reproduce solar local time variation of electron density at 600 km altitude better than current International Reference Ionosphere (IRI2001) model which overestimates Ne in night time and underestimates Ne in day time. Our density model together with electron temperature model which has been constructed before will enable more understanding of upper ionospheric phenomenon in the equatorial region.     

NeQuick 2 and IRI Plas VTEC predictions for low latitude and South American sector

Using vertical total electron content (VTEC) measurements obtained from GPS satellite signals the capability of the NeQuick 2 and IRI Plas models to predict VTEC over the low latitude and South American sector is analyzed. In the present work both models were used to calculate VTEC up to the height of GPS satellites. Also, comparisons between the performance of IRI Plas and IRI 2007 have been done. The data correspond to June solstice and September equinox 1999 (high solar activity) and they were obtained at nine stations. The considered latitude range extends from 18.4°N to ?64.7°N and the longitude ranges from 281.3°E to 295.9°E in the South American sector. The greatest discrepancies among model predictions and the measured VTEC are obtained at low latitudes stations placed in the equatorial anomaly region. Underestimations as strong as 40?TECU [1?TECU?=?10¹⁶?m^?2] can be observed at BOGT station for September equinox, when NeQuick2 model is used. The obtained results also show that: (a) for June solstice, in general the performance of IRI Plas for low latitude stations is better than that of NeQuick2 and, vice versa, for highest latitudes the performance of NeQuick2 is better than that of IRI Plas. For the stations TUCU and SANT both models have good performance; (b) for September equinox the performances of the models do not follow a clearly defined pattern as in the other season. However, it can be seen that for the region placed between the Northern peak and the valley of the equatorial anomaly, in general, the performance of IRI Plas is better than that of NeQuick2 for hours of maximum ionization. From TUCU to the South, the best TEC predictions are given by NeQuick2.The source of the observed deviations of the models has been explored in terms of CCIR foF2 determination in the available ionosonde stations in the region. Discrepancies can be also related to an unrealistic shape of the vertical electron density profile and or an erroneous prediction of the plasmaspheric contribution to the vertical total electron content. Moreover, the results of this study could be suggesting that in the case of NeQuick, the underestimation trend could be due to the lack of a proper plasmaspheric model in its topside representation. In contrast, the plasmaspheric model included in IRI, leads to clear overestimations of GPS derived TEC.     

The subauroral electron density trough: Comparison between satellite observations and IRI-2007 model estimates

We compare electron density predictions of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2007) model with in situ measurements of the satellites CHAMP and GRACE for the years from 2005 to 2010 over the subauroral regions. The electron density between 58° and 68° Mlat are considered. The trough region Ne peaks during local summers and attain the valley during local winter. Around −100°E and 60°E, two larger electron density sectors features can be seen in both hemispheres during all three seasons, which attributed to the electron extending from middle latitude to trough region. From 2005 to the beginning of 2010, the model overestimates the trough region Ne by 20% on average and the decrease of Ne in this region can also be seen during the last solar minimum. In the southern hemisphere, the model prediction shows quite well consistence with the observation during all three seasons while the huge difference between observations and model estimation implies that the IRI-2007 model needs significant improvement to predict better the trough region in northern hemisphere.     

135.6nm夜气辉峰值电子密度反演算法及误差

根据夜间135.6nm大气辉光光强与F₂层峰值电子密度N_mF₂平方成正比的物理机制,在前期夜间135.6nm气辉辐射激发模型研究的基础上建立了峰值电子密度的反演算法,把全球经纬度分成若干格点,每个格点的电离层及中性成分信息分别由IRI2000和MSISE90提供,将电离层及中性成分廓线输入夜气辉辐射激发模型,计算每个格点135.6nm气辉的辐射强度,然后将各个格点的135.6nm气辉辐射强度与电离层廓线输入的N_mF₂平方拟合得到气辉强度与N_mF₂的转换因子.利用此方法可获得不同地方时、季节和太阳活动周期的转换因子组成查算表,进而根据实际探测的135.6nm气辉辐射强度反演相应时空的N_mF₂.最后对该算法的反演误差进行了综合分析,为该算法适用的时空特性提供重要理论支撑.     

A comparative study of ionospheric IRIEup and ISP assimilative models during some intense and severe geomagnetic storms

Three-dimensional (3-D) electron density matrices, computed in the Mediterranean area by the IRI climatological model and IRIEup and ISP nowcasting models, during some intense and severe geomagnetic-ionospheric storms, were ingested by the ray tracing software tool IONORT, to synthesize quasi-vertical ionograms. IRIEup model was run in different operational modes: (1) assimilating validated autoscaled electron density profiles only from a limited area which, in our case, is the Mediterranean sector (IRIEup_re(V) mode); (2) assimilating electron density profiles from a larger region including several stations spread across Europe: (a) without taking care of validating the autoscaled data in the assimilation process (IRIEup(NV)); (b) validating carefully the autoscaled electron density profiles before their assimilation (IRIEup(V)).The comparative analysis was carried out comparing IRI, IRIEup_re(V), ISP, IRIEup(NV), and IRIEup(V) foF2 synthesized values, with corresponding foF2 measurements autoscaled by ARTIST, and then validated, at the truth sites of Roquetes (40.80°N, 0.50°E, Spain), San Vito (40.60°N, 17.80°E, Italy), Athens (38.00°N, 23.50°E, Greece), and Nicosia, (35.03°N, 33.16°E, Cyprus). The outcomes demonstrate that: (1) IRIEup_re(V), performs better than ISP in the western Mediterranean (around Roquetes); (2) ISP performs slightly better than IRIEup_re(V) in the central part of Mediterranean (around Athens and San Vito); (3) ISP performance is better than the IRIEup_re(V) one in the eastern Mediterranean (around Nicosia); (4) IRIEup(NV) performance is worse than the IRIEup(V) one; (5) in the central Mediterranean area, IRIEup(V) performance is better than the IRIEup_re(V) one, and it is practically the same for the western and eastern sectors.Concerning the overall performance, nowcasting models proved to be considerably more reliable than the climatological IRI model to represent the ionosphere behaviour during geomagnetic-ionospheric storm conditions; ISP and IRIEup(V) provided the best performance, but neither of them has clearly prevailed over the other one.     

Linkage of the ionospheric peak electron density and height deduced from the topside sounding data

Topside sounding electron density profiles are analyzed to explore interrelations of the F2 layer critical frequency and the peak height for a representative set of conditions provided by ISIS1, ISIS2, IK19 and Cosmos-1809 satellites for the period of 1969–1987. The foF2 and hmF2 are delivered with exponential extrapolation of electron density profile to zero of its 1st derivative. It is shown that the linear regression exists between foF2 and hmF2 under different conditions. The linkage between the two parameters amended to the empirical model of the peak height [Gulyaeva, T.L., Bradley, P.A., Stanislawska, I., Juchnikowski, G. Towards a new reference model of hmF2 for IRI. Adv. Space Res. 42, 666–672, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2008.02.021, 2008] results in an empirical model of the both foF2 and hmF2 expressed by superposition of functions in terms of local-time, season, geodetic longitude, modified dip latitude and solar activity. For the solar activity we use a proxy Fsp index averaged from the mean solar radio flux F10.7s for the past 81 days (3 solar rotations) and F10.7 value for 1 day prior the day of observation. Impact of geomagnetic activity is not discernible with the topside sounding data due to mixed positive and negative storm-time effects. Appreciable differences have been revealed between IRI-CCIR predictions and outcome of the new model which might be attributed to the different techniques of the peak electron density and height derivation, different epochs and different global distribution of the source data as well as the different mathematical functions involved in the maps and the model presentation.     

Neural network prediction of the topside electron content over the Euro-African sector derived from Swarm-A measurements

This study presents the first prediction results of a neural network model for the vertical total electron content of the topside ionosphere based on Swarm-A measurements. The model was trained on 5 years of Swarm-A data over the Euro-African sector spanning the period 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2018. The Swarm-A data was combined with solar and geomagnetic indices to train the NN model. The Swarm-A data of 1 January to 30 September 2019 was used to test the performance of the neural network. The data was divided into two main categories: most quiet and most disturbed days of each month. Each category was subdivided into two sub-categories according to the Swarm-A trajectory i.e. whether it was ascending or descending in order to accommodate the change in local time when the satellite traverses the poles. Four pairs of neural network models were implemented, the first of each pair having one hidden layer, and the second of each pair having two hidden layers, for the following cases: 1) quiet day-ascending, 2) quiet day-descending, 3) disturbed day-ascending, and 4) disturbed day-descending. The topside vertical total electron content predicted by the neural network models compared well with the measurements by Swarm-A. The model that performed best was the one hidden layer model in the case of quiet days for descending trajectories, with RMSE = 1.20 TECU, R = 0.76. The worst performance occurred during the disturbed descending trajectories where the one hidden layer model had the worst RMSE = 2.12 TECU, (R = 0.54), and the two hidden layer model had the worst correlation coefficient R = 0.47 (RMSE = 1.57).In all cases, the neural network models performed better than the IRI2016 model in predicting the topside total electron content. The NN models presented here is the first such attempt at comparing NN models for the topside VTEC based on Swarm-A measurements.     

Options for mapping foF2

Available long-term and near-real time global and regional maps of foF2 are examined in relation to telecommunication and aeronomy requirements and recommendations are made for the best present-day maps to adopt. In particular, it is shown that current CCIR maps do not meet all requirements and should not necessarily be regarded as standards against which other mappings should be compared.     

Calibration of IRI–ITU-R peak density and height over the oceans with topside sounding data

Accuracy of IRI electron density profile depends on the F2 layer peak density and height converted by empirical formulae from the critical frequency and M3000F2 factor provided by the ITU-R (former CCIR). The CCIR/ITU-R maps generated from ground-based ionosonde measurements suffer from model assumptions, in particular, over the oceans where relatively few measurements are available due to a scarcity of ground-based ionosondes. In the present study a grid-point calibration of IRI/ITU-R maps for the foF2 and hmF2 over the oceans is proposed using modeling results based on the topside true-height profiles provided by ISIS1, ISIS2, IK-19 and Cosmos-1809 satellites for the period of 1969–1987. Topside soundings results are compared with IRI and the Russian standard model of ionosphere, SMI, and grouped to provide an empirical calibration coefficient to the peak density and height generated from ITU-R maps. The grid-point calibration coefficients maps are produced in terms of the solar activity, geodetic latitude and longitude, universal time and season allowing update of IRI–ITU-R predictions of the F2 layer peak parameters.     

Comparison of GPS-TEC measurements with NeQuick2 and IRI model predictions in the low latitude East African region during varying solar activity period (1998 and 2008–2015)

This paper examines the performances of NeQuick2, the latest available IRI-2016, IRI-2012 and IRI-2007 models in describing the monthly and seasonal mean total electron content (TEC) over the East African region. This is to gain insight into the success of the various model types and versions at characterizing the ionosphere within the equatorial ionization anomaly. TEC derived from five Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers installed at Addis Ababa (ADD, 5.33°N, 111.99°E Geog.), Asab (ASAB, 8.67°N, 116.44°E Geog.), Ambo (ABOO, 5.43°N, 111.05°E Geog.), Nairobi (RCMN, ?4.48°N, 108.46°E Geog.) and Nazret (NAZR, 4.78°N, 112.43°E Geog.), are compared with the corresponding values computed using those models during varying solar activity period (1998 and 2008–2015). We found that different models describe the equatorial and anomaly region ionosphere best depending on solar cycle, season and geomagnetic activity levels. Our results show that IRI-2016 is the best model (compared to others in terms of discrepancy range) in estimating the monthly mean GPS-TEC at NAZR, ADD and RCMN stations except at ADD during 2008 and 2012. It is also found that IRI-2012 is the best model in estimating the monthly mean TEC at ABOO station in 2014. IRI show better agreement with observations during June solstice for all the years studied at ADD except in 2012 where NeQuick2 better performs. At NAZR, NeQuick2 better performs in estimating seasonal mean GPS-TEC during 2011, while IRI models are best during 2008–2009. Both NeQuick2 and IRI models underestimate measured TEC for all the seasons at ADD in 2010 but overestimate at NAZR in 2009 and RCMN in 2008. The periodic variations of experimental and modeled TEC have been compared with solar and geomagnetic indices at ABOO and ASAB in 2014 and results indicate that the F10.7 and sunspot number as indices of solar activity seriously affects the TEC variations with periods of 16–32?days followed by the geomagnetic activity on shorter timescales (roughly periods of less than 16?days). In this case, NeQuick2 derived TEC shows better agreement with a long term period variations of GPS-TEC, while IRI-2016 and IRI-2007 show better agreement with observations during short term periodic variations. This indicates that the dependence of NeQuick2 derived TEC on F10.7 is seasonal. Hence, we suggest that representation of geomagnetic activity indices is required for better performance over the low latitude region.     

Cross testing of ionosphere models IRI-2001 and IRI-2007, data from satellite altimeters (Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1) and global ionosphere maps

In this study, we use a great body of statistical data covering the entire 23rd solar cycle to cross test data of satellite altimeters, Global Ionosphere Maps and the International Reference Ionosphere models, IRI-2001 and IRI-2007. It is revealed that experimental TEC values of the satellite altimeters regularly exceed the model ones by ∼3 TECU (1 TECU = 10¹⁶ m⁻²). The best possible value of difference between TECs obtained from altimeter and GIM-map data significantly differs for different laboratories: the maximum for CODG data falls on 2.5 TECU, ESAG – 3 TECU, JPLG – 0 TECU, UPCG – 2 TECU. The dependence of experimental and model data root-mean-square deviation on the F10.7 index is shown to be nearly linear. IRI-2001 and IRI-2007 relative errors are characterized by considerable 11-year and annual variations. Given the geomagnetic planetary index K_p under 7, IRI-2001 and IRI-2007 reproduce TEC in the ionosphere with an accuracy of ∼30% relative to measurement data from satellite altimeters. The amplitude of absolute error variations resulting from the difference in ionization enhancement between the model and the real ionosphere during the morning solar terminator transit is ∼5 TECU.     

TEC derived from some GPS stations in Nigeria and comparison with the IRI and NeQuick models

Total electron content (TEC) measured simultaneously using Global Positioning System (GPS) ionospheric monitors installed at some locations in Nigeria during the year 2011 (Rz = 55.7) was used to study the diurnal, seasonal, and annual TEC variations. The TEC exhibits daytime maximum, seasonal variation and semiannual variations. Measured TEC were compared with those predicted by the improved versions of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) and NeQuick models. The models followed the diurnal and seasonal variation patterns of the observed values of TEC. However, IRI model produced better estimates of TEC than NeQuick at all locations.     

The quiet nighttime low-latitude ionosphere as observed by TIMED/GUVI

In this paper, we examine the nighttime ionosphere climatology structure in the low latitude region and discrepancies between Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) observations and the IRI model predictions using (1) the magnetic zonal mean of electron number density as a function of altitude and magnetic latitude, (2) vertical electron density profiles at various levels of F10.7 index, (3) nighttime descent and magnitude decrease of the ionosphere, (4) point-to-point comparisons of F-peak height (hmF2) and density (NmF2), and (5) the magnetic longitudinal variations of hmF2 and NmF2. The data collected from the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere, Energetics, and Dynamics (TIMED) mission since its launch in December 2001 have provided great opportunities for many scientific investigations of the ionosphere. In this analysis, we investigate the climatology of the nighttime low-latitude ionosphere under low geomagnetic activity (kp ? 4) using the electron density profiles inferred from the airglow measurements obtained by the GUVI aboard the TIMED spacecraft and compared with the results obtained from IRI (International Reference Ionosphere) model-2001. The observed climatology is an essential tool for further understanding the electrodynamics in the low-latitude region and improving the model’s prediction capability. The time range of the GUVI data used in this study is from 2002 (day 053) to 2006 (day 304), and the IRI model predictions were produced at every GUVI location. The ionosphere observed is generally of greater density than what IRI predicts throughout the night for all four seasons for low and moderate solar activity while the model over-predicts the electron density near the F-region peak at high solar activity before midnight. Observations show that the height of the F-region peak has a steep descent from dusk to midnight and near midnight the height of layer is insensitive to solar conditions, significantly different than what is predicted by IRI. Longitudinal features shown in GUVI data are present in the low-latitude ionosphere after sunset and continue through to midnight after which the low-latitude ionosphere is largely zonally symmetric.     

Accuracy of IRI profiles of ionospheric density and temperatures derived from comparisons to Kharkov incoherent scatter radar measurements

The incoherent scatter radar (ISR) facility in Kharkov, Ukraine (49.6°N, 36.3°E) measures vertical profiles of electron density, electron and ion temperature, and ion composition of the ionospheric plasma up to 1100 km altitude. Acquired measurements constitute an accurate ionospheric reference dataset for validation of the variety of models and alternative measurement techniques. We describe preliminary results of comparing the Kharkov ISR profiles to the international reference ionosphere (IRI), an empirical model recognized for its reliable representation of the monthly-median climatology of the density and temperature profiles during quiet-time conditions, with certain extensions to the storm times. We limited our comparison to only quiet geomagnetic conditions during the autumnal equinoxes of 2007 and 2008. Overall, we observe good qualitative agreement between model and data both in time and with altitude. Magnitude-wise, the measured and modeled electron density and plasma temperatures profiles appear different. We discovered that representation accuracy improves significantly when IRI is driven by observed-averaged values of the solar activity index rather than their predictions. This result motivated us to study IRI performance throughout protracted solar minimum of the 24th cycle. The paper summarizes our observations and recommendations for optimal use of the IRI.