Future of Venus Research and Exploration

Despite the tremendous progress that has been made since the publication of the Venus II book in 1997, many fundamental questions remain concerning Venus’ history, evolution and current geologic and atmospheric processes. The international science community has taken several approaches to prioritizing these questions, either through formal processes like the Planetary Decadal Survey in the United States and the Cosmic Vision in Europe, or informally through science definition teams utilized by Japan, Russia, and India. These questions are left to future investigators to address through a broad range of research approaches that include Earth-based observations, laboratory and modeling studies that are based on existing data, and new space flight missions. Many of the highest priority questions for Venus can be answered with new measurements acquired by orbiting or in situ missions that use current technologies, and several plausible implementation concepts have been studied and proposed for flight. However, observations needed to address some science questions pose substantial technological challenges, for example, long term survival on the surface of Venus and missions that require surface or controlled aerial mobility. Missions enabled by investments in these technologies will open the door to completely new ways of exploring Venus to provide unique insights into Venus’s past and the processes at work today.     

Systems engineering execution and knowledge management

The purpose of this is to refocus programs back to the basic objectives of systems engineering execution and capturing key domain knowledge during the time when organizations are adopting new processes, procedures, or technology. While change is necessary, the discipline of the systems engineering and development process (requirements, design, implementation, test, delivery, product feedback, and sustainment) can be adversely impacted in the predicament of checking the updated process and/or procedure compliance box. Simplified approaches will be provided to better manage products and teams including discussion of web and database tools. These approaches provide the ability to better understand and manage products in an age of, sometimes, overwhelming circumstances. This identifies simplified solutions, improvement suggestions, and work flow diagrams with key entry points (framework) for new and legacy programs that include: appointment of improvement focals; maximum use of web portals (one-stop shopping); maximum focus on information that is "need to know," and is provided in a simple, database-driven manner (project domain knowledge management); minimum focus on information that is "nice to know" but is provided for career advancement; common sense entry points for existing programs by utilizing data obtained from quick assessments and Peer Reviews including standard meeting agendas, intergroup coordination meetings, and common status report templates.     

Adaptive Optical Target Detection Using Correlated Images

A method for target detection that achieves clutter rejection by the use of multiple observations of the same target scene is developed. Multiple scene observations can be obtained by processing separate frequency bands of the same target scene or by recursively processing sequential observations in time. Optimal detection algorithms are developed, based on the assumption that the image intensity can be modeled as a variable mean spatial Gaussian process. Several fast detection algorithms are derived which make use of the fact that the covariance matrices of many optical and infrared (IR) images can be accurately approximated by diagonal matrices. These algorithms provide efficient solutions to the problem of processing multiple correlated scenes or multiple sequential imaging. Computer simulations based on actual optical and IR image data were used for checking the theoretical results. The new detection algorithms achieved performance improvement in detection signal-to-noise ratio of up to 10 dB over conventional target correlation methods.     

The Rosetta Alpha Particle X-Ray Spectrometer (APXS)

The Alpha Particle X-Ray Spectrometer (APXS) is a small instrument to determine the elemental composition of a given sample. For the ESA Rosetta mission, the periodical comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko was selected as the target comet, where the lander PHILAE (after landing) will carry out in-situ observations. One of the instruments onboard is the APXS to make measurements on the landing site. The APXS science goal is to provide basic compositional data of the comet surface. As comets consist of a mixture of ice and dust, the dust component can be characterized and compared with known meteoritic compositions. Various element ratios can be used to evaluate whether chemical fractionations occurred in cometary material by comparing them with known chondritic material. To enable observations of the local environment, APXS measurements of several spots on the surface and one spot as function of temperature can be made. Repetitive measurements as function of heliocentric distance can elucidate thermal processes at work. By measuring samples that were obtained by drilling subsurface material can be analyzed. The accumulated APXS data can be used to shed light on state, evolution, and origin of 67P/Churyumov- Gerasimenko.     

On Optimal Control of Linear Systems in the Presence of Multiplicative Noise

This correspondence considers the problem of optimal regulator design for discrete time linear systems subjected to white state-dependent and control-dependent noise in addition to additive white noise in the input and the observations. A pseudo-deterministic problem is first defined in which multiplicative and additive input disturbances are present, but noise-free measurements of the complete state vector are available. This problem is solved via discrete dynamic programing. Next is formulated the problem in which the number of measurements is less than that of the state variables and the measurements are contaminated with state-dependent noise. The inseparability of control and estimation is brought into focus, and an "enforced separation" solution is obtained via heuristic reasoning in which the control gains are shown to be the same as those in the pseudo-deterministic problem. An optimal linear state estimator is given in order to implement the controller.     

Neutral H Density at the Termination Shock: A Consolidation of Recent Results

We discuss a consolidation of determinations of the density of neutral interstellar H at the nose of the termination shock carried out with the use of various data sets, techniques, and modeling approaches. In particular, we focus on the determination of this density based on observations of H pickup ions on Ulysses during its aphelion passage through the ecliptic plane. We discuss in greater detail a novel method of determination of the density from these measurements and review the results from its application to actual data. The H density at TS derived from this analysis is equal to 0.087±0.022 cm^?3, and when all relevant determinations are taken into account, the consolidated density is obtained at 0.09±0.022 cm^?3. The density of H in CHISM based on literature values of filtration factor is then calculated at 0.16±0.04 cm^?3.     

Detection of Changes in the Characteristics of a Gauss-Markov Process

By an extension to the theory of sequential detection with dependent measurements, it is possible to develop a sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) to detect changes in regime in a Gauss-Markov process rather than detecting which of the two regimes exists. It is shown how a posterior form of this extended SPRT may be simplified to reduce computational complexity. The simplified SPRT's are in fact modifications of the original SPRT detecting the regime and not the change. The tests are applied to the problem of fault detection in a gyro navigational system; the results of a detailed computer simulation are given.     

Compton Polarimetry in Gamma-Ray Astronomy

The analysis of compact astronomical objects has generally dealt with the physical properties of the source within a two-parameter space, which is defined by the spectral characteristics and time variability. This approach often leads to the situation whereby two or more very different models can explain the observations successfully. Polarimetric observations have the diagnostic potential to discriminate between the different compact source models and can offer a unique insight into the geometrical nature of the emission zones. To date, however, no polarization observation in the gamma-ray energy domain has been successfully performed, due to the difficulties in making polarimetric measurements in this high-energy region of the spectrum. In this paper the polarized gamma-ray emission mechanisms are reviewed with the emphasis on their detectable characteristics. Potential astronomical sites in which these emission mechanisms may be at work are discussed. Observational results obtained in other wavebands and theoretical predications made for some of the most likely astronomical sources of polarization are reviewed. Compton polarimetry has long been used in the field of nuclear gamma-ray spectroscopy in the laboratory. The operational principle behind all generations of nuclear gamma-ray polarimeters has been to measure the asymmetry in the azimuthal distribution of the scattered photons. However none of the polarimeters designed for laboratory experiments will be sensitive enough to observe even the strongest astronomical source. In the past few years there have been a number of innovative developments aimed at the construction of astronomical gamma-ray polarimeters, either as dedicated experiments or in missions with polarimetric capability. The designs of all the polarimeters are based on either discrete or continuous position sensitive detector planes. In this paper the data analysis techniques associated with this type of polarimeter are discussed as well as methods of removing some of the systematic effects introduced by a non-ideal detector response function and observation conditions. Laboratory tests of these new polarimetric techniques are reviewed. They demonstrate the feasibility of building a suitably sensitive astronomical gamma-ray polarimeter. Optimization of the design of pixellated detector array based polarimeters is also addressed. The INTEGRAL mission, which is to be launched by ESA in the year 2001, is the most likely telescope to perform the first successful gamma-ray polarization observation. The polarimetric characteristics of the two main instruments on board INTEGRAL are evaluated and their sensitivities to a wide range of potentially polarized gamma-ray sources are estimated.     

The interpretation of the XUV solar spectrum

This paper reviews (a) the earth's ionosphere, and (b) the solar atmosphere, in relation to the recent observations of solar XUV. The expected ionospheric characteristics are derived as directly as possible from the XUV observations and then compared with the well-known D-, E-, and F-layer formations. The comparison leads to (1) a high ionospheric recombination coefficient decreasing rapidly with height, (2) contributions to the E-layer from both UV and X-rays, and (3) very little difference in the solar cycle variations from the D-, E-, and F-layers although intensity variations are greater from high than low ions. The flux measurements of the identified XUV solar emission lines give information on the numbers of ions in the solar atmosphere. This makes it possible to derive (1) the amount of solar material in each temperature range, (2) the chemical abundances, and (3) the physical differences between quiet solar atmosphere, centres of activity, and flares. When the new dielectronic recombination coefficients are well investigated it should be possible to redetermine the distribution of solar material with temperature. The fitting of such results to chromospheric and coronal models provides many problems.     

H2O-Activity of Comet Hale-Bopp

Due to the outstanding brightness of Comet Hale-Bopp measurements of water production rates were possible over a wide range of heliocentric distances (up to 5 AU). A variety of observing techniques have been used, including radio observations, IR- and UV-measurements. The H₂O-production of a comet is closely connected with the energy balance and the composition of its surface. By comparing measured and calculated rates it is possible to derive properties of the nucleus. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of seasonal effects and show that a low thermal conductivity enhances the water production rate. The observations can be matched with a relatively low, lunar-like thermal conductivity. A lower size limit for the nucleus of Hale-Bopp is derived. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

M-ary sequential hypothesis tests for automatic targetrecognition

Several forms of sequential hypothesis testing algorithms are described and their performance as classification algorithms for automatic target recognition is evaluated and compared. Several forms of parameteric algorithms, as well as a sequential form of a useful nonparametric algorithm are considered. The primary focus is the design of algorithms for automatic target recognition that produce maximally reliable decisions while requiring, on the average, a minimum number of backscatter measurements. The tradeoffs between the average number of required measurements and the error performance of the resulting algorithms are compared by means of Monte-Carlo simulation studies     

Solar Surface Magnetism and Irradiance on Time Scales from Days to the 11-Year Cycle

The uninterrupted measurement of the total solar irradiance during the last three solar cycles and an increasing amount of solar spectral irradiance measurements as well as solar imaging observations (magnetograms and photometric data) have stimulated the development of models attributing irradiance variations to solar surface magnetism. Here we review the current status of solar irradiance measurements and modelling efforts based on solar photospheric magnetic fields. Thereby we restrict ourselves to the study of solar variations from days to the solar cycle. Phenomenological models of the solar atmosphere in combination with imaging observations of solar electromagnetic radiation and measurements of the photospheric magnetic field have reached high enough quality to show that a large fraction (at least, about 80%) of the solar irradiance variability can be explained by the radiative effects of the magnetic activity present in the photosphere. Also, significant progress has been made with magnetohydrodynamic simulations of convection that allow us to relate the radiance of the photospheric magnetic structures to the observations.     

Maneuvering Target Tracking Using Adaptive State Estimation

Two approaches to a nonlinear state estimation problem are presented. The particular problem addressed is that of tracking a maneuvering target in three-dimensional space using spherical observations (radar data). Both approaches rely on semi-Markov modeling of target maneuvers and result in effective algorithms that prevent the loss of track that often occurs when a target makes a sudden, radical change in its trajectory. Both techniques are compared using real and simulated radar measurements with emphasis on performance and computational burden.     

Coordinate Conversion and Tracking for Very Long Range Radars

The problem of tracking with very long range radars is studied in this paper. First, the measurement conversion from a radar's r-u-v coordinate system to the Cartesian coordinate system is discussed. Although the nonlinearity of this coordinate transformation appears insignificant based on the evaluation of the bias of the converted measurements, it is shown that this nonlinearity can cause significant covariance inconsistency in the conventionally converted measurements (CM1). Since data association depends critically on filter consistency, this issue is very important. Following this, it is shown that a suitably corrected conversion (CM2) eliminates the inconsistency. Then, initialized with the converted measurements (using CM2), four Cartesian filters are evaluated. It is shown that, among these filters, the converted measurement Kalman filter with second order Taylor expansion (CM2KF) is the only one that is consistent for very long range tracking scenarios. Another two approaches, the range-direction-cosine extended Kalman filter (ruvEKF) and the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) are also evaluated and shown to suffer from consistency problems. However, the CM2KF has the disadvantage of reduced accuracy in the range direction. To fix this problem, a consistency-based modification for the standard extended Kalman filter (E1KF) is proposed. This leads to a new filtering approach, designated as measurement covariance adaptive extended Kalman filter (MCAEKF). For very long range tracking scenarios, the MCAEKF is shown to produce consistent filtering results and be able to avoid the loss of accuracy in the range direction. It is also shown that the MCAEKF meets the posterior Carmer-Rao lower bound for the scenarios considered.     

Design of nonparametric truncated sequential detectors withparallel linear boundaries

A design method is proposed for a class of nonparametric truncated sequential detectors. These detectors test nonparametric statistics against two parallel linear boundaries with an abrupt truncation at some sample size. The proposed method obtains the asymptotic relative efficiencies (ARE) of these tests with respect to their corresponding fixed-sample-size (FSS) tests in terms of some parameters of the tests. There parameters are then chosen to optimize the ARE. This (asymptotically) optimal set of parameters is used to design the thresholds of the sequential tests. Numerical results are obtained and design examples are presented, using the sum of the signs of the observations as the test statistic. The method can be used for nonparametric sequential detectors and for robust and parametric sequential detectors as well     

Data association for deghosting in Y-shaped passive linear array sonars

This paper deals with data association using three sets of passive linear array sonars (PLAS) geometrically positioned in a Y-shaped configuration, fixed in an underwater environment. The data association problem is directly transformed into a 3D assignment, which is known to be NP hard. For generic passive sensors, it can be solved using conventional algorithms, while in PLAS, it becomes a formidable task due to the presence of bearing ambiguity. Thus, the central issue of the problem in PLAS is how to eliminate the bearing ambiguity without increasing tracking error. To solve this problem, the 3D assignment algorithm used the likelihood value of only those observed bearing measurements is modified by incorporating frequency information in consecutive time-aligned scans. The region of possible ghost targets is first established by the geometrical relation of PLAS with respect to target. The ghost targets are then confirmed and eliminated by generating multiple observations in consecutive scans. Representative simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.