规避时段选择与机动变轨研究

按照空间碎片减缓指南的要求, 当两个空间物体发生碰撞前需要进行规避操作. 本文对规避中涉及到的速度增量与轨道变化的关系进行了分析, 探讨了一些具体的机动变轨方法, 同时还就测站的观测时段问题作了研究, 为碎片预警和航天器的规避提供了有力的支持.     

The International DORIS Service (IDS): Toward maturity

DORIS is one of the four space-geodetic techniques participating in the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS), particularly to maintain and disseminate the Terrestrial Reference Frame as determined by International Earth rotation and Reference frame Service (IERS). A few years ago, under the umbrella of the International Association of Geodesy, a DORIS International Service (IDS) was created in order to foster international cooperation and to provide new scientific products. This paper addresses the organizational aspects of the IDS and presents some recent DORIS scientific results. It is for the first time that, in preparation of the ITRF2008, seven Analysis Centers (AC’s) contributed to derive long-term time series of DORIS stations positions. These solutions were then combined into a homogeneous time series IDS-2 for which a precision of less than 10 mm was obtained. Orbit comparisons between the various AC’s showed an excellent agreement in the radial component, both for the SPOT satellites (e.g. 0.5–2.1 cm RMS for SPOT-2) and Envisat (0.9–2.1 cm RMS), using different software packages, models, corrections and analysis strategies. There is now a wide international participation within IDS that should lead to future improvements in DORIS analysis strategies and DORIS-derived geodetic products.     

The STARK-B database as a resource for “STARK” widths and shifts data: State of advancement and program of development

“Stark” broadening theories and calculations have been extensively developed for about 50 years and can now be applied to many needs, especially for accurate spectroscopic diagnostics and modeling. This requires the knowledge of numerous collisional line profiles. Nowadays, the access to such data via an online database becomes essential. STARK-B is a collaborative project between the Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade and the Laboratoire d’Étude du Rayonnement et de la matière en Astrophysique (LERMA). It is a database of calculated widths and shifts of isolated lines of atoms and ions due to electron and ion collisions (impacts). It is devoted to modeling and spectroscopic diagnostics of stellar atmospheres and envelopes, laboratory plasmas, laser equipments and technological plasmas. Hence, the domain of temperatures and densities covered by the tables is wide and depends on the ionization degree of the considered ion. STARK-B has been fully opened since September 2008 and is in free access.     

Variability of foF2 in the African equatorial ionosphere

This paper presents the impact of diurnal, seasonal and solar activity effects on the variability of ionospheric foF2 in the African equatorial latitude. Three African ionospheric stations; Dakar (14.8°N, 17.4°W, dip: 11.4°N), Ouagadougou (12.4°N, 1.5°W, dip: 2.8°N) and Djibouti (11.5°N, 42.8°E, dip: 7.2°N) were considered for the investigation. The overall aim is to provide African inputs that will be of assistance at improving existing forecasting models. The diurnal analysis revealed that the ionospheric critical frequency (foF2) is more susceptible to variability during the night-time than the day-time, with two peaks in the range; 18–38% during post-sunset hours and 35–55% during post-midnight hours. The seasonal and solar activity analyses showed a post-sunset September Equinox maximum and June Solstice maximum of foF2 variability in all the stations for all seasons. At all the stations, foF2 variability was high for low solar activity year. Overall, we concluded that equatorial foF2 variability increases with decreasing solar activity during night-time.     

An improved cyclic multi model-eXtreme gradient boosting (CMM-XGBoost) forecasting algorithm on the GNSS vertical time series

The study of GNSS vertical coordinate time series forecasting is helpful for monitoring the crustal plate movement, dam or bridge deformation monitoring, and global or regional coordinate system maintenance. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm is a machine learning algorithm that can evaluate features, and it has a great potential and stability for long-span time series forecasting. This study proposes a multi-model combined forecasting method based on the XGBoost algorithm. The method constitutes a new time series as features through the fitting and forecasting results of the forecasting model. The XGBoost model is then used for forecasting. In addition, this method can obtain higher precision forecasting results through circulation. To verify the performance of the forecasting method, 1095 epochs of data in the Up coordinate of 16 GNSS stations are selected for the forecasting test. Compared with the CNN-LSTM model, the experimental results of our forecasting method show that the mean absolute error (MAE) values are reduced by 30.23 %～52.50 % and the root mean square error (RMSE) values are reduced by 31.92 %～54.33 %. The forecasting results have higher accuracy and are highly correlated to the original time series, which can better forecast the vertical movement of the GNSS stations. Therefore, the forecasting method can be applied to the up component of the GNSS coordinate time series.     

空间碎片自然衰减和太阳活动

分析研究了空间碎片数随太阳辐射流量Ｆ１０．７的变化;给出预报Ｆ１０．７长期变化的计算方法和预测空间碎片数的数学模型。结果显示：①强太阳活动造成空间碎片年增长率下降;②空间碎片数与太阳活动１１年变化密切相关,相关数为０．９;③空间碎片增长率约为发射率的两倍;④若发射率保持不变,则到２０２０年,大于１０ｃｍ的碎片数将达到１４５００;⑤若小碎片的增长为大碎片增长的两倍,则到２０２０年,大于１ｃｍ的碎片数可达１２５０００。     

基于PCI总线的主从式多轴控制器开发

针对运动控制的高精度要求,介绍了一种基于PCI(Peripheral Component Interconnect)总线的实时多轴控制系统.为了在执行复杂任务时,减少主机的工作量以及充分利用数字信号处理器(DSP,Digital Signal Processor)的数字处理能力,多轴控制器采用了主从控制结构.这种控制器还可以根据用户的需要使用串行通讯控制来代替PCI总线控制.控制器硬件的研发主要集中在多轴控制器、PCI总线接口电路和PCI局部总线的控制逻辑电路上,这些是设计控制器的关键技术.通过一个三自由度机器人沿一个空间螺旋轨迹运动的实例验证,所研发的多轴控制器可以实现具有准实时性能的高精度协调运动控制.      

Web服务组合处理系统的研究与实现

单个Web服务难以满足实际应用的需求,为了解决互联网应用的集成和协作问题,需要把独立的Web服务组合起来以实现复杂的业务逻辑功能.通过分析服务组合的处理机制,基于传统工作流技术,使用IBM的WSFL语言作为服务组合描述语言,设计并实现了一个面向Web服务组合语言的通用的Web服务组合处理系统.这是一个多层结构的系统,它由Web服务平台、服务组合处理引擎、JMX注册管理中心、远程管理控制台以及处理引擎配置工具五部分构成;它为WSFL语言所描述的服务组合流程提供了一个运行引擎,同时提供了一个基于JMX的管理控制台,通过它可以对正在运行的流程实例以及历史数据进行控制和管理.该系统为基于Web服务的应用集成和协作提供了一个统一的运行管理环境.     

Combining frequency and time domain models to forecast space weather

Space weather series incorporate several distinct components, cycles at multiple frequencies, irregular trends, and nonlinear variability. The cycles are stochastic, i.e., the amplitude varies over time. Similarly, the trend is stochastic: the slope and direction of trending change repeatedly. This study sets out a combined model using both frequency and time domain methods, in two stages. In the first stage, a frequency domain algorithm is estimated and forecasted. In the second stage, the forecast is used as an input in a neural network. The combined model also includes a term enabling the model to react inversely to large deviations between the actual values and forecast. The models are evaluated using two data sets, the hemispheric power data obtained from the Polar Orbiting Environment satellites, and the Aa geomagnetic index. All the series are at a daily resolution. Forecasting experiments are run over horizons of 1–7 days. The models are estimated using a moving window or adaptive approach. The combined model consistently achieves the most accurate results. Among single equation methods, the frequency domain model is more accurate for the geomagnetic index because it is able to capture the underlying cycles more effectively. In the hemispheric power series, the cycles are less pronounced, so that time domain methods are more accurate, except at very short horizons. Nevertheless, in both data sets, the combined model works well because the frequency domain algorithm captures cyclical behavior, while the neural net is better able to capture short-term dependence and trending.     

A new balloon base in Japan

Since 1971, numerous balloons have been launched from the Japanese balloon base, the Sanriku Balloon Center (SBC). Through these years, balloon technologies have been developed continuously and many scientific achievements have resulted. Recently, however, because of the limited area of the launching pad of the SBC, we have been faced with the difficulty of safely launching large balloons. To solve this issue, we decided to move the balloon base from the SBC to the Taiki Aerospace Research Field (TARF) in northern Japan. The TARF had an existing huge hanger and a paved launch pad capable of being utilised for balloon operations. To evolve the TARF into a new balloon base, new balloon facilities have been constructed at the TARF and equipment was transferred from the SBC to the TARF during July 2007 and March 2008. The SBC was closed in September 2007, and the new base became operational in May 2008. The new base at the TARF is designed to launch larger balloons with greater safety and to perform balloon operations more effectively than ever before. In the summer of 2008, we carried out the first series of the balloon campaign at the TARF, and succeeded in two engineering flights of stratospheric balloons. By the success of these flights, we have verified that the whole system of the new balloon base is well established.     

Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A_p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A_p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.     

Web服务事务处理系统的研究与实现

Web服务具有良好的互操作性,能有效地支持软件的集成.在集成和交互过程中,Web服务需要事务的支持获得一致和可靠的结果.通过分析Web服务事务处理的基本原理、运行过程和机制,设计和实现了一个Web服务事务处理系统.该系统包括客户端、协调器、参与者和监控管理工具四部分,其中客户端创建、提交或者取消Web服务事务,协调器是管理和控制事务运行的协调中心,参与者是参与事务的Web服务,监控管理工具是提供给管理员的可视化工具.在协调器和参与者的交互过程中使用两阶段提交协议保证事务的原子性和一致性.该系统在处理过程中具有一定的实用性和灵活性,并能满足跨企业商业事务的需求.     

基于Web服务的单点登录系统的研究与实现

随着分布式计算技术与应用的不断发展,基于动态、松耦合环境的业务流程将涉及到多个服务提供商,以致用户在完成这样的业务时需要面对多次登录的困扰.针对这个问题,分析了在分布式环境中基于Web服务的用户单点登录机制,并设计实现了Web服务应用支撑环境中的单点登录系统,使得用户只需登录一次即可完成复杂业务.      

非合作目标智能感知技术研究进展与展望

智能感知是实现航天器在轨精细化操控过程的关键技术,是在轨服务技术智能化的重点发展方向之一。空间目标智能感知包括位姿测量、三维重建与部位识别等关键技术,涉及小样本、多模态、模型适应与高维数据等问题。从工程应用角度出发,对非合作目标智能感知技术的研究现状进行系统的梳理与总结。首先,总结典型非合作在轨感知系统与光学敏感器技术的发展现状;其次,归纳总结了非合作目标智能感知涉及的关键技术;最后,基于研究现状总结和关键技术分析,探讨了非合作目标智能感知目前存在的主要问题,并给出后续发展的建议。     

组合服务控制流测试

结合Web服务本体语言(OWL-S,Web Ontology Language for Services)和线性时态逻辑理论(LTL, Linear Temporal Logic),研究用于测试的组合服务流程形式化描述方法和动态测试信息分析方法.将OWL-S作为组合服务的需求参考模型,采用组合服务标准和形式化描述方法相结合的方式,用线性时态逻辑刻画OWL-S控制结构的动态语义,明确地表示出控制结构中各成分的执行顺序.进一步用线性时态逻辑公式集合描述组合服务的控制流需求,从而使原子服务的交互模式有了明确的表示.基于这种交互模式表示,采用LTL在有限状态序列上的语义,对组合服务实现执行过程中获取的动态信息进行分析,测试组合服务实现的执行过程与组合服务控制流需求的一致性.