太阳活动与全球气候变化

太阳不断向地球辐射电磁波和粒子, 太阳辐射是地球气候系统最主要的能量来源. 地球气候系统对太阳活动的响应是一个复杂的过程, 包括辐射过程、动力学过程以及微观物理过程等. 根据太阳辐射的卫星观测结果和重建结果, 例举了古气候、温度、大气环流和云量等方面太阳影响气候的观测证据, 论述了太阳影响气候的三种可能机制, 即太阳总辐射变化可以影响地表温度, 并通过海-气耦合改变大气环流; 太阳紫外辐射通过调制平流层的温度和风场影响下面的对流层; 太阳通过行星际磁场调制银河宇宙线, 而银河宇宙线通过电离大气影响云量, 进而改变地球的能量收支.      

The physical mechanism of the solar variability influence on electrical and climatic characteristics of the troposphere

Possible mechanisms of solar–climatic connections, which may be of importance over short and long time intervals, are discussed. The variations of energetic balance of Earth’s climatic system for the last 50 years are estimated. It is ascertained that the imbalance between the flux of solar energy that comes to the Earth and radiates to space is of 0.1% for the last ten years. The significance is analyzed for the possible influence of variations of solar constant upon the energetic balance of the atmosphere.The physical mechanism of the influence of solar activity on climatic characteristics and the atmospheric circulation is suggested and theoretically substantiated. The mechanism is based on the redistribution in lower-troposphere of condensation nuclei by the vertical electric field. This electric field is determined by the ionosphere–Earth electric potential, which in the Polar Regions is controlled not only by tropical thunderstorms and by the galactic cosmic-ray intensity but also by solar cosmic-ray fluxes. The height redistribution in the atmosphere of condensation nuclei with a change of the electric field of the atmosphere is accompanied by a change in total latent heat (phase transition of water vapor), by changes in radiation balance, and by subsequent changes of the thermobaric field of troposphere. The results of analysis of thermobaric field variations for the periods of invasion of abnormally powerful solar cosmic ray fluxes and magnetic storms confirm the reality of manifestation of heliogeophysical disturbances.     

Is the North Atlantic Oscillation modulated by solar and lunar cycles? Some evidences from Hurst autocorrelation analysis

Several studies have suggested that the Sun and Moon cycles affect the Earth climatic dynamics. Nevertheless, there is a long-standing controversy whether solar variability and tides can significantly generate climate change, and how this may occur. Spectral analysis of climatic indices has provided only indirect evidences of the effects of solar–tidal periodicities in the Earth climate. This work addresses the issue by considering the dynamics of the daily North Atlantic Oscillation index over the period from 1950 to 2009. In contrast to previous studies, this work proposes that external cycles can be detected in the autocorrelation dynamics rather than in the raw North Atlantic Oscillation index series. Here, the R/S-scaling analysis is used to quantify, via the so-called Hurst exponent, the presence of autocorrelations along the studied years. Fourier analysis scan of the autocorrelation series thus show two prominent spectral components near (±3%) the lunar tidal 4.425 and the solar 11 years cycles. Intermediate spectral components near 6.4, 7.75 and 8.9 years are proposed to be, at least partially, a result of energy capture from internal mechanisms into cycles resulting from the nonlinear resonance of the fundamental solar–tidal cycles. The dominant effect of the solar variability is clarified by showing that in about 70% of the studied period the sunspot number and the Hurst exponent phases are synchronized, indicating that a higher solar activity enhances the North Atlantic Oscillation index predictability.     

Regional tropospheric responses to long-term solar activity variations

The influence of ∼200-year solar activity variations (de Vries cyclicity) on climatic parameters has been analyzed. Analysis of palaeoclimatic data from different regions of the Earth for the last millennium has shown that ∼200-year variations in solar activity give rise to a pronounced climatic response. Owing to a nonlinear character of the processes in the atmosphere–ocean system and the inertia of this system, the climatic response to the global influence of solar activity variations has been found to have a regional character. The regions where the climatic response to long-term solar activity variations is stable and the regions where the climatic response is unstable, both in time and space, have been revealed. It has also been found that a considerable lag of the climatic response and reversal of its sign with respect to the solar signal can occur. Comparison of the obtained results with the simulation predictions of the atmosphere–ocean system response to long-term solar irradiance variations (T > 40 years) has shown that there is a good agreement between experimental and simulation results.     

太阳活动变化分析

利用Morlet小波变换方法对太阳黑子相对数进行了分析,对太阳活动变化得出了一些有意义的结果.太阳活动存在10.7 a和101 a的变化周期,以10.7 a周期最为显著.太阳活动强弱变化存在一定的阶段性,在1950年发生了气候突变,之后太阳活动明显加强,未来一段时间太阳活动较弱.      

地球自转对北极黄河站观测日侧极光弧运动的影响

利用北极黄河站全天空极光数据,采用AACGM模型,将日侧极光弧映射到地磁坐标系,定量计算地球自转导致的极光弧运动速度.对于任意一条极光弧,其偏斜角定义为极光弧方向与当地地磁东西方向的夹角.研究发现,地球自转产生的速度由极光弧离开天顶的距离和偏斜角决定,其中偏斜角的影响更为重要,其还决定速度的方向.在4年的观测数据中,提取超过40000张出现极光弧的图像,计算极光弧偏斜角.计算结果表明,日侧极光弧的偏斜角随磁地方时增大而逐渐减小,并在大约10:00MLT（磁地方时）附近发生反转.由于偏斜角的反转,地球自转产生的极光弧运动在晨侧多为极向运动,到午后多为赤道向运动.相比午前,午后的运动更为明显,最大速度可超过300m·-1.      

Influence of the 2:1 resonance in the orbits of GPS satellites

Due to the characteristics of their orbits the GPS satellites are submitted to the following main perturbations: terrestrial gravitational field, luni-solar gravitational attraction and solar radiation pressure (including the effects of the Earth's shadow). An additional perturbation arises due to the 2:1 commensurability of the orbital period of the satellite with the period of the Earth's rotation. An analytical theory is briefly presented to solve the equations of motion including the previously mentioned effects. The analytical solution, based on the Lie-Hori method, is compared with a numerical integration of the equations.     

地磁急始年发生数周期特征的小波分析

采用小波分析方法分析了急始年发生数的时间序列的周期特征，并对急始发生数的特征与太阳黑子相对数的特征进行了简要的对照分析，分析结果表明，急始发生数的周期规律与太阳黑子相对数的周期规律是有差异的．还进行了太阳黑子相对数与急始数的相关性，太阳黑子相对数与急始磁暴的相关性研究，分析结果表明它们之间显著相关．还对急始数与急始磁暴致以及其他的一些参数之间的相关性进行了分析，最后对分析结果进行了讨论．     

Isotopic record in a marine shallow-water core: Imprint of solar centennial cycles in the past 2 millennia

The δ¹³C profile of Globigerinoides ruber, measured in the GT90/3 shallow-water Ionian sea core and dated with high precision, is presented and analyzed using the Singular Spectrum Analysis and the Wavelet Transform. This time series covers the period 200–1979 AD, with a resolution of 3.87 years. The δ¹³C of foraminifera depends on the photosynthetic activity of the symbiontic algae living on the shells, strictly related to the illumination of the sea-surface. Both spectral methods, besides an 11-years oscillation in phase with the Schwabe cycle of the solar activity, show the presence of a centennial cycle that is in phase with the amplitude modulation of the sunspot number series in the last 300 years.Moreover, another climatic record, the tree ring δ¹³C of a Japanese cedar covering the time interval 125–1952 AD, shows a similar centennial oscillation and therefore suggests that this climatic variation is global and in phase with the solar activity.     

The possible applications of Meteosat for monitoring the rain season in the Sahel zone: The case of Senegal

The use of geostationary meteorological satellites for monitoring climate is relatively well known. However, the application of satellite data for agronomical purposes is still far form being operational. Recent work shows the possibility of establishing statistical models adapted to each region which can predict rain to within a time interval of 12 to 24 hours, based on the analysis of cloud cover. In the same way, thermal IR images may be used, employing the quasi-linear relationship between surface temperature and real evapotranspiration E.T.R. This is the objective of the project on monitoring the hydric balance in Senegal, associating INRA-IRAT and LERTS in France, ISRA and Meteorologie Nationale in Senegal. The first results obtained by Assad et al from two Meteosat images taken during 1979 establishing an inverse relationship between surface temperature and rain, over the total area of Senegal, were maintained for 16 images taken during the 1984 and 1985 rain period. Their analyses show that it is possible : - To identify the most favorable sowing periods, - to diagnose periods of high climatic risk for crops, and to cartograph rain distribution from spatial variations in surface temperature.     

Solar Activity and the Climate of Prebaikalia

This paper presents convincing evidence for the reality of manifestations of solar variability in climate characteristics of the Prebaikalia. A numerical estimate is obtained of this influence on ground air temperature. It is shown that the main meaningful variations in air temperature in the region for the period1881-1960 were caused by solar activity. Since the 1960s till the present, with the influence of solar variability continuing, a clear-cut influence of another factor has been observed, the role of which has been steadily increasing, and in the hst decade it has now exceeded the contribution of solar variability. Research results on the variations in hydrological characteristics of Lake Baikal and the Angara river and their connection with solar activity are presented. It is shown that these characteristics are closely correlated with the duration of solar cycles.      

System analysis of links interactions and development of ecosystems of different types.

The anthropogenic impact on the Earth's ecosystems are leading to dramatic changes in ecosystem functioning and even to destruction of them. System analysis and the use of heuristic modeling can be an effective means to determine the main biological interactions and key factors that are of high importance for understanding the development of ecosystems. Cycling of limiting substances, induced by the external free energy flux, and trophic links interaction is the basis of the mathematical modeling studies presented in this paper. Mathematical models describe the dynamics of simplified ecosystems having different characteristics: 1) different degrees of biotic turnover closure (from open to completely closed); 2) different numbers of trophic links (including both "top-down", "bottom-up" regulation types); 3) different intensities of input-output flows of the limiting nutrient and its total amount in the system. Adaptive values of the changes of lower hierarchical levels (populational, trophic chain level) are to be estimated by integrity indices for total system functioning (e.g. NPP, total photosynthesis). The approach developed can be used for evaluating the contributions of lower hierarchical levels to the functioning of the higher hierarchical levels of the system. This approach may have value for determining biomanipulation management and their assessment.     

Earth life support for aquatic organisms, system and technical aspects.

The importance of the research on Bioregenerative Life Support has increased dramatically in the last decade not only with regard to possible space flight application but also as a way to obtain a better understanding of our Earth's ecology. A major goal was to reach long-term stability of artificial model systems. Preliminary data are presented on the development of an improved aquatic system, currently dedicated for ground-based research. Closed aquatic ecosystems require reliability of the key parameters of pH, O2 and CO2 concentration and stability of sensors for monitoring. Besides the integration of an artificial lung (holofiber system and air pump with valves, allowing controlled oxygen uptake of air), in parallel to the oxygen producing water plants. Our new approach is to implement opto-chemical sensors, for such environmental monitoring. One major advantage of the new sensor technique is their better long-term reliability as compared to the electrochemical sensors. Our experiment with the new sensor technique has demonstrated satisfactory performance in closed aquatic ecosystems.     

The origin and successional status of anthropogenic dwarf shrub heath in Newfoundland

There are 1.2 × 10⁶ ha of heath vegetation on the island of Newfoundland. Some of this heath is of climatic or edaphic origin, but most of it has originated because of increasing frequency of fire and cutting following settlement of the area by European man since discovery in 1497. Modern fire suppression has been successful in reducing the size and frequency of fires in the last 40–50 years, however, natural forest regeneration is still not apparent in the anthropogenic heath.The ecotone between the forest-heath appears to have stabilized following an initial influx of trees up to 10 m from the forest margin. Analysis of the age structure of the invading trees demonstrates that after a period of 10 years new tree establishment is reduced to less than 5 percent of the total establishment. This decreased establishment over time is correlated with a coincidental increase in dwarf shrub heath vegetation that creates undesirable germination conditions for tree seed entering the heath. Even with ideal seedbed conditions for germination, the short distance of seed dispersal (10–20 m) and the excessively slow growth rates of trees, limit forest encroachment to a rate of 10 cm per year. At this rate more than a thousand years would be required for successional encroachement of even 2–3 ha of heathland. The successional status of the heath vegetation is considered to be permanent even though traditional concepts of secondary succession and chronosequence would predict the recovery of a climax forest vegetation.     

Satellite remotely-sensed land surface parameters and their climatic effects for three metropolitan regions

By using both high-resolution orthoimagery and medium-resolution Landsat satellite imagery with other geospatial information, several land surface parameters including impervious surfaces and land surface temperatures for three geographically distinct urban areas in the United States – Seattle, Washington, Tampa Bay, Florida, and Las Vegas, Nevada, are obtained. Percent impervious surface is used to quantitatively define the spatial extent and development density of urban land use. Land surface temperatures were retrieved by using a single band algorithm that processes both thermal infrared satellite data and total atmospheric water vapor content. Land surface temperatures were analyzed for different land use and land cover categories in the three regions. The heterogeneity of urban land surface and associated spatial extents were shown to influence surface thermal conditions because of the removal of vegetative cover, the introduction of non-transpiring surfaces, and the reduction in evaporation over urban impervious surfaces. Fifty years of in situ climate data were integrated to assess regional climatic conditions. The spatial structure of surface heating influenced by landscape characteristics has a profound influence on regional climate conditions, especially through urban heat island effects.     

Study of the influence of solar variability on a regional (Indian) climate: 1901–2007

We use Indian temperature data of more than 100 years to study the influence of solar activity on climate. We study the Sun–climate relationship by averaging solar and climate data at various time scales; decadal, solar activity and solar magnetic cycles. We also consider the minimum and maximum values of sunspot number (SSN) during each solar cycle. This parameter SSN is correlated better with Indian temperature when these data are averaged over solar magnetic polarity epochs (SSN maximum to maximum). Our results indicate that the solar variability may still be contributing to ongoing climate change and suggest for more investigations.     

Estimating sea level rise around Australia using a new approach to account for low frequency climate signals

Regional sea level studies help to identify the vulnerable areas to the sea level rise. This study investigates the impact of climate modes on sea level variations and trends around Australia using altimetry data, climate indices, and sea level records from tide gauge stations. Here, we show that the sea level variations are negatively correlated with climate indices to the north and west of Australia. The spectral analyses of the climate indices and tide gauge data suggest that a low frequency signal with a period of 11 years emerges during the mid 1980s. Since the 25-year length of the satellite altimetry record is yet too short to detect low frequency signals, their effect on the estimation of regional sea level trend is unknown. Therefore, we estimate the sea level trend with consideration of this signal and using a two-step method. All signals with periods shorter than 7.5 years are first removed from sea level time series and then the trend is estimated using the parametric model that includes the 11-year signal. The skill of the parametric model in explaining the variations in sea level anomaly validates the presence of the 11-year signal detected in the spectrograms of the tide gauge data and climate indices. The average sea level trend for the study area is estimated as 3.85 ± 0.15 mm/year.     

Studies of the radiation budget anomalies over Antarctica during 1974–1983, and their possible relationship to climatic variations

We present the results of a study of anomalies, which are defined as differences of seasonal means from the data set seasonal means, in the Earth's radiation budget from the analysis of nine years of ten day mean observations derived from the NOAA polar orbiter satellites for the period, 1974–1983. We estimate that the standard deviation in the outgoing longwave flux for this period is less than 12 Wm^?2 and typically 7 Wm^?2. The results show that there are several geographical areas for which the standard deviation is in excess of 20 Wm^?2; in such regions the radiation budget anomalies exceeded these due to natural atmospheric variability. In this paper we discuss the relationship of these anomalies with climatic change.     

Galactic cosmic ray flux simulation and prediction.

A dynamic galactic cosmic ray model is proposed to quantitatively describe the z=1-28 ions and electrons of E=10-10(5) MeV/nucleon and their particle flux variations around the Earth's orbit and beyond the Earth's magnetosphere due to diverse large-scale variations of solar activity factors. The variations of large-scale heliospheric magnetic fields and the galactic cosmic ray flux variation time delays relative to solar activity variations are simulated. The lag characteristics and sunspot number predictions having been determined in detail, the model can be used to predict galactic cosmic ray flux levels.     

质子地磁垂直截止刚度在2004年11月7-8日两个时刻处的数值模拟

利用单粒子轨道理论, 在T04和IGRF2000磁场模式建立的磁层模型基础上, 应用四阶龙格库塔方法, 模拟计算宇宙线带电质子在地球磁层中的运动以及沿天顶方向入射到达地球磁场内的某一特定位置, 得到了距地球表面450km高度处全球质子垂直截止刚度在2004年11月7-8日中两个时刻的计算值. 根据计算得到的684个不同位置处的截止刚度值, 分析了同一时刻地磁垂直截止刚度随磁纬和磁经的变化. 与此同时, 模拟计算了相同时刻下磁纬为30°, 磁经为0°, 45°, 90°, 135°, 180°, 225°, 270°, 315°处, 地磁有效垂直截止刚度随高度的变化情况. 结果表明, 在磁纬30°处, 其质子有效垂直截止刚度随距离地心高度的变化沿向阳处向磁尾处方向, 变化越来越缓慢.