Characterizing the near-earth object hazard and its mitigation

Within observational constraints and analytic orbit determinations, potential NEO hazards and mitigations are characterized in terms of orbit displacements to establish (arbitrary) “safe” closest approach distances and corresponding energies that must be externally applied to achieve appropriate orbit displacements from the Earth. Required orbital velocity changes depend on projected closest Earth approach distances and time to (near) impact. Energy to achieve orbital displacement depends on NEO mass, required orbital velocity change, and the energy–momentum coupling coefficient. Errors in these parameters introduce uncertainties into hazard index and mitigation procedures. Hazard avoidance levels and mitigation indices for nine near-Earth asteroids, including 1997 XF₁₁ and 1999 AN₁₀, with non-zero Earth-impact probabilities are computed as examples of the proposed methodology, generating insight into the dilemma of predicting near impacts. This zeroth order approximation should not be construed as solving an orbital mechanics problem, nor establishing a particular set of criteria for mitigation action, but rather as a “survival index”.     

美国小行星俘获任务及其启示

小行星俘获(ACR)任务是美国Keck空间研究中心发起的一项深空探测任务。该任务计划选定一颗近地小行星,通过口袋式抓捕系统对其实施抓捕,并于2025年左右将其带回近月空间。文章介绍了ACR任务的内容和系统设计,具体包括:航天器总体构型、抓捕分系统、探测识别分系统和控制与推进分系统;对小行星抓捕的目标探测与识别、旋转匹配、抓捕、消旋、轨道转移等核心操作。基于ACR任务,提出了空间目标俘获技术的需求与应用、抓捕航天器系统设计的启示;基于我国目前的技术研究情况,总结分析了发展空间目标俘获任务所需的关键技术,如大功率柔性太阳翼、长时间大范围轨道机动、目标探测与识别、快速机动、目标抓捕与消旋。     

Analysis of the orbital motion of the asteroid Apophis’ satellite

We have analyzed the orbital disturbed spacecraft motion near an asteroid. The equations of the asteroidocentric spacecraft motion have been used with regard to three perturbations from celestial bodies, the asteroid’s nonsphericity, and solar radiation pressure. It has been shown that the orbital parameters of the main spacecraft and a small satellite with a radio beacon can be selected such that the orbits are rather stable for a fairly long period of time, i.e., a few weeks for the main spacecraft with an orbit initial radius of ~0.5 km and a few years before approaching Apophis with the Earth in 2029, for a small satellite at an orbit initial radius of ~1.5 km. The initial orientation of the spacecraft orbital plane perpendicular to the sunward direction is optimal from the point of view of the stability of the spacecraft flight near an asteroid.     

Piloted operations at a near-Earth object (NEO)

In late 2006, NASA's Constellation Program sponsored a study to examine the feasibility of sending a piloted Orion spacecraft to a near-Earth object. NEOs are asteroids or comets that have perihelion distances less than or equal to 1.3 astronomical units, and can have orbits that cross that of the Earth. Therefore, the most suitable targets for the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) are those NEOs in heliocentric orbits similar to Earth's (i.e. low inclination and low eccentricity). One of the significant advantages of this type of mission is that it strengthens and validates the foundational infrastructure of the United States Space Exploration Policy and is highly complementary to NASA's planned lunar sortie and outpost missions circa 2020. A human expedition to a NEO would not only underline the broad utility of the Orion CEV and Ares launch systems, but would also be the first human expedition to an interplanetary body beyond the Earth–Moon system. These deep space operations will present unique challenges not present in lunar missions for the onboard crew, spacecraft systems, and mission control team. Executing several piloted NEO missions will enable NASA to gain crucial deep space operational experience, which will be necessary prerequisites for the eventual human missions to Mars.Our NEO team will present and discuss the following:

• new mission trajectories and concepts;

• operational command and control considerations;

• expected science, operational, resource utilization, and impact mitigation returns; and

• continued exploration momentum and future Mars exploration benefits.

气动-引力辅助转移轨道研究及在星际探测中的应用

借力飞行是减小星际探测任务发射能量和总的速度增量的有效途径,然而,借力飞行前后,探测器速度矢量转角的变化往往受到借力星体体积、质量等因素的影响,而不能达到理想的要求。若在借力飞行中引入气动辅助变轨,即气动-引力辅助转移(AGA),则这一问题可以得到有效解决。现通过对AGA转移轨道的分析,给出了AGA转移轨道设计的拼接条件,此拼接条件是对AGA转移轨道进行设计和分析的重要准则。同时还以探测Ivar小行星为例,提出了一种将绘制等高线图和圆锥曲线拼接相结合的设计AGA转移轨道的方法,并给出了设计探测Ivar小行星转移轨道的参数。数值计算表明:AGA转移方法不但可以降低远程星际探测任务的发射能量和总的速度增量,而且可以找到更多的探测机会。     

State propagation in an uncertain asteroid gravity field

Various spacecraft have been and will be sent to asteroids to characterize them. Generally, an asteroid's gravity field is very irregular and not accurately known when compared to the gravity field of a major planet, Earth in particular. It has been well studied that the irregularity significantly affects the trajectory of an orbiting spacecraft, and causes it to impact or to escape from the asteroid. Complementary to that, this paper focuses on the influence of the limited knowledge of this gravity field on the evolution of the spacecraft's orbit. It develops a general method by which this influence can be quantified. This method comprises specific Monte Carlo simulations with a discrete set of low-altitude orbits, taking into account the uncertainties in the gravity-field parameters. For illustration purposes, it is applied to two different asteroids. Already after three revolutions, the gravity-field uncertainties propagate to significant position uncertainties; this specifically holds for prograde orbits, and around the smaller asteroid. Applying this robust and accurate method helps mission designers and planners to assess the risk posed by gravity uncertainties, and take appropriate measures such as choosing the most favorable orbital geometries and/or lowering the orbit more slowly.     

Polyhedron tracking and gravity tractor asteroid deflection

In the wake of the Chelyabinsk airburst, the defense against hazardous asteroids is becoming a topic of high interest. This work improves the gravity tractor asteroid deflection approach by tracking realistic small body shapes with tilted ion engines. An algorithm for polyhedron tracking was evaluated in a fictitious impact scenario. The simulations suggest a capability increase up to 38.2% with such improved tilting strategies. The long- and short-term effects within polyhedron tracking are illustrated. In particular, the orbital reorientation effect is influential when realistic asteroid shapes and rotations are accounted for. Also analyzed is the subject of altitude profiles, a way to tailor the gravity tractor performance, and to achieve a steering ability within the B-plane. A novel analytical solution for the classic gravity tractor is derived. It removes the simulation need for classic tractor designs to obtain comparable two body model Δv$\mathrm{\Delta }v$ figures. This paper corroborates that the asteroid shape can be exploited for maximum performance. Even a single engine tilt adjustment at the beginning of deflection operations yields more deflection than a fixed preset tilt.     

Asteroidal resources for space manufacturing

Earth-approaching asteroids (Apollos and Amors) may be competitive candidates as raw materials for space manufacturing. The total energy per unit mass required to transfer material from some of these bodies to high Earth orbit is comparable to that for lunar material. Recent optical studies suggest ordinary and carbonaceous chondrite compositions for these asteroids, with some containing large quantities of metallic iron and nickel, and others, carbon, hydrogen and nitrogen. Discoveries of several new candidate asteroids over the next few years will allow for a better selection of materials and mission possibilities. Material from one of these asteroids, either in raw or manufactured form, could be returned to the vicinity of the Earth by a solar-powered mass-driver reaction engine. With a requirement of ～60 shuttle flights, and with minimal development costs, an automated mission to a 200-m dia. (10⁷ ton) metal-rich asteroid could be carried out by a mass-driver tug assembled in low Earth orbit using shuttle tankage as reaction mass. Such a tug could, within a few years, move the asteroid into high Earth orbit for the manufacturing of ～ 20 satellite power stations using a portion of the asteroid itself as reaction mass. In the next few years over 100 asteroids in this size range could be discovered, orbits determined and composition types classified using existing earthbased and spaceborne search techniques.     

Tether assisted near earth object diversion

Potential earth impact threats posed by asteroids have motivated researchers to find effective NEO diversion techniques. Several means to perturb the motion of an asteroid have been discussed in the literature. Attaching a long tether and ballast mass to the asteroid can effectively alter its trajectory. In this paper it is shown that by cutting the tether at an appropriate time the diversion can be enhanced. The instant of cutting the tether significantly affects the final orbit of the asteroid and thus the resulting deflection from the original path.     

从月球逃逸探测小行星的发射机会搜索

从月球逃逸探测小行星的发射机会搜索因需考虑日、地、月引力的影响而使问题变得复杂。针对该多体系统的发射机会搜索问题,提出了一种分层渐近的搜索方法。该方法首先通过分析地月系质心与小行星的几何关系,搜索从地月系质心到小行星的发射机会,进而以地月运动为研究对象,推导出了从月球轨道切向逃逸机会的判别条件,并基于此判别条件及等高线图法对逃逸机会进行了搜索。同时,为提高所得发射机会在多体模型下的轨道修正收敛性,给出了基于月心逃逸轨道参数为终端约束的日-地与日-地-月动力学模型的轨道渐近修正方法。最后,以近地小行星(3908)Nyx和(190491)2000 FJ20为例,搜索其从月球逃逸的发射机会,仿真计算表明了该方法的有效性。     

Impacts and evolution: future prospects

The discipline of astrobiology includes the dynamics of biological evolution. One of the major ways that the cosmos influences life is through the catastrophic environmental disruptions caused when comets and asteroids collide with a planet. We now recognize that such impacts have caused mass extinctions and played a major role in determining the evolution of life on Earth. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics as well as the current population of near Earth asteroids (NEAs). Effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts [such as the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) impactor 65 million years ago] and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile 10-15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Similar considerations allow us to model the effects of still smaller (and much more likely) impacts, down to the size of the asteroid that exploded over Tunguska in 1908 (energy approximately 10 megatons). Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near 1 million megatons in energy (approximately 2 km in diameter for an asteroid). The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. The first priority in any plan for defense against impactors is to survey the population of Earth-crossing NEAs and project their orbits forward in time. This is the purpose of the Spaceguard Survey, which has already found more than half of the NEAs >1 km in diameter. If there is an NEA on a collision course with Earth, it can be discovered and the impact predicted with decades or more of warning. It is then possible to consider how to deflect or disrupt the NEA. Unlike other natural hazards, the impact risk can be largely eliminated, given sufficient advanced knowledge to take action against the threatening projectile.     

序列凸优化的小天体附着轨迹优化

针对小天体附着多约束轨迹优化问题,提出一种基于序列凸优化的轨迹优化方法。首先采用内球谐引力场模型对目标小天体附近的不规则引力场进行精确建模,内球谐引力场模型是对经典球谐系数法的改进,形式简单,计算量小,并且克服了经典球谐系数模型在形状不规则的小天体附近不收敛的问题。对于小天体附着多约束轨迹优化问题,通过约束松弛、线性化、离散化过程,转化为一个可以迭代求解的二阶锥规划问题（SOCP）,进而采用内点法进行解算。数学仿真结果显示,优化结果符合各项约束条件,以零速度到达了目标着陆点,且符合燃耗最优的优化目标。利用序列凸优化算法进行小天体附着燃耗最优轨迹设计,推导简便,计算速度快,精度高,具有应用价值。     

Human spaceflight and an asteroid redirect mission: Why?

The planning of human spaceflight programmes is an exercise in careful rationing of a scarce and expensive resource. Current NASA plans are to develop the new capability for human-rated launch into space to replace the Space Transportation System (STS), more commonly known as the Space Shuttle, combined with a heavy lift capability, and followed by an eventual Mars mission. As an intermediate step towards Mars, NASA proposes to venture beyond Low Earth Orbit to cis-lunar space to visit a small asteroid which will be captured and moved to lunar orbit by a separate robotic mission. The rationale for this and how to garner support from the scientific community for such an asteroid mission are discussed. Key points that emerge are that a programme usually has greater legitimacy when it emerges from public debate, mostly via a Presidential Commission, a report by the National Research Council or a Decadal Review of science goals etc. Also, human spaceflight missions need to have support from a wide range of interested communities. Accordingly, an outline scientific case for a human visit to an asteroid is made. Further, it is argued here that the scientific interest in an asteroid mission needs to be included early in the planning stages, so that the appropriate capabilities (here the need for drilling cores and carrying equipment to, and returning samples from, the asteroid) can be included.     

Piloted operations at a near-Earth object (NEO)

In late 2006, NASA's Constellation Program sponsored a study to examine the feasibility of sending a piloted Orion spacecraft to a near-Earth object. NEOs are asteroids or comets that have perihelion distances less than or equal to 1.3 astronomical units, and can have orbits that cross that of the Earth. Therefore, the most suitable targets for the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) are those NEOs in heliocentric orbits similar to Earth's (i.e. low inclination and low eccentricity). One of the significant advantages of this type of mission is that it strengthens and validates the foundational infrastructure of the United States Space Exploration Policy and is highly complementary to NASA's planned lunar sortie and outpost missions circa 2020. A human expedition to a NEO would not only underline the broad utility of the Orion CEV and Ares launch systems, but would also be the first human expedition to an interplanetary body beyond the Earth–Moon system. These deep space operations will present unique challenges not present in lunar missions for the onboard crew, spacecraft systems, and mission control team. Executing several piloted NEO missions will enable NASA to gain crucial deep space operational experience, which will be necessary prerequisites for the eventual human missions to Mars.Our NEO team will present and discuss the following:

• •new mission trajectories and concepts;
• •operational command and control considerations;
• •expected science, operational, resource utilization, and impact mitigation returns; and
• •continued exploration momentum and future Mars exploration benefits.

     

小行星探测最优两脉冲交会轨道设计与分析

小行星探测已经成为新世纪深空探测的一个新热点和未来世界航天发展的一个新方向。转移轨道的设计和探测目标可接近性的分析是小行星探测的关键技术之一。现利用了任意两个非共面非共轴椭圆轨道之间的最优两脉冲转移方法，对我国提出的探测Ivar小行星的交会转移轨道进行了设计与分析，给出了全局最优两脉冲交会轨道的设计参数，并利用此方法对近地小行星的可接近性进行了分析和排序，给出了可接近性较好的40颗近地小行星的转移轨道设计参数。这些研究结果对于近地小行星探测任务的目标选择和发射机会的预测都有重要的参考价值。     

基于地球引力变轨的日冕探测器轨道设计

研究了相对黄道面有一定倾角的探测器轨道设计的问题。以金星借力轨道设计为例,分析了轨道偏心率与轨道倾角增量之间的关系。根据C3匹配原理搜索了“地球-中间天体-地球”多天体交会的发射窗口。最后,设计了与地球轨道周期相等的三次地球借力轨道,该轨道倾角可以达到黄纬30°以上。理论分析及仿真结果表明:基于地球引力设计此类轨道时,应采用多天体交会方案,才能既保证地球逃逸能量低,又保证首次飞入地球影响球前轨道偏心率较大的双重指标;同时应采用多次地球借力方案,该方案具有每次借力后轨道偏心率逐渐减小的特点,当其减小到零时,再次借力后轨道倾角不会继续增加。     

Fast solar sail rendezvous mission to near Earth asteroids

The concept of fast solar sail rendezvous missions to near Earth asteroids is presented by considering the hyperbolic launch excess velocity as a design parameter. After introducing an initial constraint on the hyperbolic excess velocity, a time optimal control framework is derived and solved by using an indirect method. The coplanar circular orbit rendezvous scenario is investigated first to evaluate the variational trend of the transfer time with respect to different hyperbolic excess velocities and solar sail characteristic accelerations. The influence of the asteroid orbital inclination and eccentricity on the transfer time is studied in a parametric way. The optimal direction and magnitude of the hyperbolic excess velocity are identified via numerical simulations. The found results for coplanar circular scenarios are compared in terms of fuel consumption to the corresponding bi-impulsive transfer of the same flight time, but without using a solar sail. The fuel consumption tradeoff between the required hyperbolic excess velocity and the achievable flight time is discussed. The required total launch mass for a particular solar sail is derived in analytical form. A practical mission application is proposed to rendezvous with the asteroid 99942 Apophis by using a solar sail in combination with the provided hyperbolic excess velocity.     

Space solar power vs space communications

To meet the future needs of energy on Earth, the transmission of solar power from space is being extensively studied. Since the power station will occupy a position in the geostationary orbit and will use radio frequency spectrum for transmission of energy to Earth, the relative benefits of space solar power and space communications should be considered. The resource allocation of orbit-spectrum to a power station requires a sacrifice from space communications as they both utilize similar limited resources. The power station is to energy what communication is to information. While the cost of energy is going up, the cost of information processing, storage, sharing and transmission is decreasing. Also, increased means of communication are used as a measure of energy conservation. With the advent of computer communication and the Large Scale Integrated (LSI) microprocessors, the technique of multiple access, message switching and satellite switching can be cost-effectively combined. The computer-satellite communication will allow information resource sharing among large numbers of users besides the conventional application of space communications. Since space communication means work effectively in many other areas where ultimate energy use and conservation is possible, the space solar power will not be able to compete or substitute on the basis of equality and social benefits. But, as the transmission technology is similar for both areas, the R & D effort for solar power will certainly increase efficiency and reduce cost for space communications.     

Equilibrium attitude and stability of a spacecraft on a stationary orbit around an asteroid

The stationary orbits around an asteroid, if exist, can be used for communication and navigation purposes just as around the Earth. The equilibrium attitude and stability of a rigid spacecraft on a stationary orbit around a uniformly-rotating asteroid are studied. The linearized equations of attitude motion are obtained under the small motion assumption. Then, the equilibrium attitude is determined in both cases of a general and a symmetrical spacecraft. Due to the higher-order inertia integrals of the spacecraft, the equilibrium attitude is slightly away from zero Euler angles. Then necessary conditions of stability of this conservative system are analyzed based on the linearized equations of motion. The effects of different parameters, including the harmonic coefficients C₂₀ and C₂₂ of the asteroid and higher-order inertia integrals of the spacecraft, on the stability are assessed and compared. Due to the significantly non-spherical shape and rapid rotation of the asteroid, the effects of the harmonic coefficients C₂₀ and C₂₂ are very significant, while effects of the third- and fourth-order inertia integrals of the spacecraft can be neglected. Considering a spacecraft on a stationary orbit around an example asteroid, we show that the classical stability domain predicted by the Beletskii–DeBra–Delp method on a circular orbit in a central gravity field is modified due to the non-spherical mass distribution of the asteroid. Our results are confirmed by a numerical simulation.     

Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation

In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter.