Solar Influences on Dynamical Coupling Between the Stratosphere and Troposphere

We use a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to investigate the response of the lower atmosphere to thermal perturbations in the lower stratosphere. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the sub-tropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low latitude heating displacing them poleward, and uniform heating displacing them equatorward. The patterns of response to the low latitude heating are similar to those found to be associated with solar variability in previous observational data analysis, and to the effects of varying solar UV radiation in sophisticated AGCMs. In order to investigate the chain of causality involved in converting the stratospheric thermal forcing to a tropospheric climate signal we conduct an experiment which uses an ensemble of model spin-ups to analyse the time development of the response to an applied stratospheric perturbation. We find that the initial effect of the change in static stability at the tropopause is to reduce the eddy momentum flux convergence in this region. This is followed by a vertical transfer of the momentum forcing anomaly by an anomalous mean circulation to the surface, where it is partly balanced by surface stress anomalies. The unbalanced part drives the evolution of the vertically integrated zonal flow. We conclude that solar heating of the stratosphere may produce changes in the circulation of the troposphere even without any direct forcing below the tropopause. We suggest that the impact of the stratospheric changes on wave propagation is key to the mechanisms involved.     

The Effect of Solar UV Irradiance Variations on the Earth's Atmosphere

The response of the lower and middle atmosphere to variations in solar irradiance typical of those observed to take place over the 11-year activity cycle has been investigated. The effects on radiative heating rates of changing total solar irradiance, solar spectral irradiance and two different assumptions concerning stratospheric ozone have been studied with a radiative transfer code. The response in the stratosphere depends on the changes specified in the ozone distribution which is not well known. A general circulation model (GCM) of the atmosphere up to 0.1 mbar (about 65 km) has been used to study the impacts of these changes on the thermodynamical structure. The results in the troposphere are very similar to those reported by Haigh99 using a quite different GCM. In the middle atmosphere the model is able to reproduce quite well the observed seasonal evolution of temperature and wind anomalies. Calculations of radiative forcing due to solar variation are presented. These show that the thermal infrared component of the forcing, due to warming of the stratosphere, is important but suggest a near balance between the longwave and shortwave effects of the increased ozone so that ozone change may not be important for net radiative forcing. However, the structure of the ozone change does affect the detailed temperature response and the spectral composition of the radiation entering the troposphere.     

On the Response of the Climate System to Solar Forcing

The climate response to changes in radiative forcing depends crucially on climate feedback processes, with the consequence that solar and greenhouse gas forcing have both similar response patterns in the troposphere. This circumstance complicates significantly the attribution of the causes of climate change. Additionally, the climate system displays a high level of unforced intrinsic variability, and significant variations in the climate of many parts of the world are due to internal processes. Such internal modes contribute significantly to the variability of climate system on various time scales, and thus compete with external forcing in explaining the origin of past climate extremes. This highlights the need for independent observations of solar forcing including long-term consistent observational records of the total and spectrally resolved solar irradiance. The stratospheric response to solar forcing is different from its response to greenhouse gas forcing, thus suggesting that stratospheric observations could offer the best target for the identification of the specific influence of solar forcing on climate.     

THE SIGNAL OF THE 11-YEAR SUNSPOT CYCLE IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE-LOWER STRATOSPHERE

The paper summarizes work by the authors over the past ten years on an apparent signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle in the lower stratosphere-upper troposphere. The signal appears as a basic, consistent pattern in correlations between heights of stratospheric constant-pressure levels, at least as high as 25 km, and the solar cycle in which the highest correlations are in the subtropics.The variation of the stratospheric heights in phase with the sunspot cycle are – in the areas of high correlations between the two – associated with temperature variations on the same time scale in the middle and upper troposphere. The spatial distribution of the correlations suggests that the year-to-year changes in tropical and subtropical vertical motions contain a component on the time scale of the solar cycle.In January and February the correlations with the sunspot cycle are smallest. The smallness of the correlations is owing to the fact that they are different in the east and west years of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the equatorial stratospheric winds. The correlation pattern in the east years is the same as in the other seasons and is statistically significant. In the west years the correlations are insignificant outside the arctic, and the positive correlation in the arctic in these years is related to the fact that major midwinter breakdowns of the cyclonic vortex in the west years so far have happened only at maxima in the solar cycle.Until recently reliable continuous series of analyses of the stratosphere were not available for the southern hemisphere. The U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research have now, however, issued a 23-year series of re-analyzed global data which has made it possible to detect the solar signal on the southern hemisphere. It turns out to be almost the same as that on the northern hemisphere.The correlations between total column ozone and the sunspot cycle are lowest in the equatorial regions, where ozone is produced, and in the subpolar regions, where the largest amounts are found. In the annual mean the largest correlations lie between 5° lat. and 30° lat. We suggest that this distribution of correlations is due to the fact that the subtropical heights of the constant-pressure surfaces in the ozone layer are higher in maximum than in minimum years of the sunspot cycle, and that the higher subtropical heights in the solar maxima depress the poleward transport of ozone through the subtropics and thus create an abundance of ozone.     

Influence of the Solar Cycle on the General Circulation of the Stratosphere and Upper Troposphere

The record of dynamical structure reveals a systematic variation that operates coherently with the 11-yr variation of UV irradiance. Involving periods shorter than 5 years, the systematic variation reflects the influence of the QBO on the polar-night vortex. It has the same basic structure as interannual changes associated with the residual mean circulation of the stratosphere. A signature of the solar cycle also appears in the direct correlation to solar flux, as recovered through regression of the entire monthly record. That signature, however, is sharply enhanced around solstice, when the residual circulation is active, and during extremal phases of the QBO. In the tropics, the solar signature follows, throughout the year, from a decadal modulation in the frequency of the QBO. The modulation is manifested to either side of the QBO’s mean frequency, in two spectral peaks where the QBO dwells: one at (24 months)⁻¹, reflecting a Biennial Oscillation (BO), and another at (36 months)^-1. Intrinsic to the QBO, those peaks are separated from its mean frequency by ∼11 years⁻¹.Through the QBO’s residual circulation, the decadal modulation introduces anomalies in the subtropics, with symmetry about the equator. Accompanying anomalous temperature in the subtropics is a stronger signature over the winter pole. Discovered by Labitzke and van Loon 1988, that solar signature reflects anomalous downwelling of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. It is shown to follow through the BO, which is intrinsic to the QBO and its modulation of the polar-night vortex.     

A Possible Transfer Mechanism for the 11-Year Solar Cycle to the Lower Stratosphere

Observational evidence of the 11-year solar cycle (SC) modulation of stratosphere temperatures and winds from the ERA-40 dataset is reviewed, with emphasis on the Northern winter hemisphere. A frequency modulation of sudden warming events is noted, with warmings occurring earlier in solar minimum periods than in solar maximum periods. The observed interaction between the influence of the SC and the quasi biennial oscillation (QBO) on the frequency of sudden warmings is noted as a possible clue for understanding their mechanism of influence. A possible transfer route for the 11-year solar cycle from the equatorial stratopause region to the lowest part of the stratosphere is proposed, via an influence on sudden warming events and the associated induced meridional circulation. SC and QBO composites of zonal wind anomalies show anomalous wind distributions in the subtropical upper stratosphere in early winter. Mechanistic model experiments are reviewed that demonstrate a sensitivity of sudden warmings to small wind anomalies in this region. Various diagnostics from these experiments are shown, including EP fluxes and their divergence and also the synoptic evolution of the polar vortex, in order to understand the mechanism of the influence. Some recent GCM experiments to investigate the SC/QBO interaction are also described. They simulate reasonably well the observed SC/QBO interaction of sudden warming events and appear to support the hypothesis that tropical/subtropical upper stratospheric wind anomalies are an important influence on the timing of sudden warmings.     

Reconstruction of Past Solar Irradiance

Accurate measurements of solar irradiance started in 1978, but a much longer time series is needed in order to uncover a possible influence on the Earth's climate. In order to reconstruct the irradiance prior to 1978 we require both an understanding of the underlying causes of solar irradiance variability as well as data describing the state of the Sun (in particular its magnetic field) at the relevant epochs.Evidence is accumulating that on the time-scale of the solar cycle or less, variations in solar irradiance are produced mainly by changes in the amount and distribution of magnetic flux on the solar surface. The main solar features contributing to a darkening of the Sun are sunspots, while active-region faculae and the network lead to a brightening. There is also increasing evidence for secular changes of the solar magnetic field and the associated of solar brightness variability. In part the behavior of sun-like stars is used as a guide of such secular changes.Under the assumption that solar irradiance variations are due to solar surface magnetism on all relevant time scales it is possible to reconstruct the irradiance with some reliability from today to around 1874, and with lower accuracy back to the Maunder minimum. One major problem is the decreasing amount and accuracy of the relevant data with age. In this review the various reconstructions of past solar irradiance are presented and the assumptions underlying them are scrutinized.     

Solar variability and minor constituents in the lower thermosphere and in the mesosphere

Space Science Reviews - The variation in the solar irradiance related for example to the 11-year cycle leads to changes in the photodissociation and photo-ionization of the upper and middle...     

Solar Surface Magnetism and Irradiance on Time Scales from Days to the 11-Year Cycle

The uninterrupted measurement of the total solar irradiance during the last three solar cycles and an increasing amount of solar spectral irradiance measurements as well as solar imaging observations (magnetograms and photometric data) have stimulated the development of models attributing irradiance variations to solar surface magnetism. Here we review the current status of solar irradiance measurements and modelling efforts based on solar photospheric magnetic fields. Thereby we restrict ourselves to the study of solar variations from days to the solar cycle. Phenomenological models of the solar atmosphere in combination with imaging observations of solar electromagnetic radiation and measurements of the photospheric magnetic field have reached high enough quality to show that a large fraction (at least, about 80%) of the solar irradiance variability can be explained by the radiative effects of the magnetic activity present in the photosphere. Also, significant progress has been made with magnetohydrodynamic simulations of convection that allow us to relate the radiance of the photospheric magnetic structures to the observations.     

Modelling solar irradiance variations: Comparison with observations,including line-ratio variations

Solar irradiance variations show a strong temporal and spectral dependence. The progression of the Sun through its activity cycle as well as solar rotation are mirrored in the irradiance variations. The spectral dependence is such that the variations are several magnitudes larger in the EUV than in the visible or infrared.We present a simple 3-component model that is based on the assumption that changes in the solar flux are exclusively due to changes in spot and facular coverage. We compare our model to observations of the spectral solar irradiance variations.Despite its simplicity, we find that the agreement between our model and the observations is surprisingly good. We also explore the reliability and the limitations of our approach by comparing observations of the solar facular contrast and of the changes in spectral line depths with our calculations.     

Measurement of Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance

The Sun’s electromagnetic radiation powers our solar system. In the case of the Earth it heats the lands and ocean, maintains our atmosphere, generates clouds, and cycles water. For other planets and minor bodies, similar and appropriate physical processes occur, also powered by the Sun. The Sun varies on all time scales and a precise knowledge of the Sun's irradiance and its variation is essential to our understanding of environments and physical conditions throughout our solar system. Measurements of solar irradiance and its variation can only be made from space, and almost thirty years of observation have now established that the total solar irradiance (TSI) varies by only 0.1 to 0.3%, while certain portions of the solar spectrum, the ultraviolet for example, vary by orders of magnitude more. This paper provides an overview of TSI observations and of spectral irradiance observations from the ultraviolet to the near infrared.     

Solar Variability and the Earth's Climate: Introduction and Overview

Numerous attempts have been made over the years to link various aspects of solar variability to changes in the Earth's climate. There has been growing interest in this possible connection in recent years, spurred largely by the need to understand the natural causes of climate change, against which the expected global warming due to man's activities will have to be detected. The time scale of concern here is that of decades to centuries, and excludes the longer millennial scale in which orbital variations play a dominant role. The field has long been plagued by the lack of an acceptable physical mechanism by which solar variability can affect climate, but the discovery of variability in the Sun's total irradiance (the solar ``constant' of meteorology) by spacecraft instruments has pointed to a direct mechanism. Other less direct mechanisms that have been suggested involve variations in the Sun's ultraviolet flux and in the plasma outflow of the solar wind. The purpose of this paper is to summarize the current state of the field, emphasizing the proposed mechanisms as an introduction to the more detailed papers that follow. The particular case of sea-surface temperature data will be used as an illustration.     

The Role of Dynamics in Solar Forcing

This paper reviews the solar influence on climate through stratospheric dynamical processes. There are two possible processes, both being a consequence of the wave-mean flow interaction in the upper stratosphere. One involves changes in the vertical propagation of planetary waves and the resultant tropospheric circulation change in the extratropics of the winter hemisphere. The other involves change in the global meridional circulation in the stratosphere and associated convective activity change in the tropics. These processes have been discussed on an 11-year solar cycle, but they are also applicable for centennial-scale solar influence on climate.     

Anthropogenic and natural causes of twentieth century temperature change

We analyse spatio-temporal patterns of near-surface temperature change to provide an attribution of twentieth century climate change. We apply an ``optimal detection' methodology to seasonal and annual data averaged over a range of spatial and temporal scales. We find that solar effects may have contributed significantly to the warming in the first half of the century although this result is dependent on the reconstruction of total solar irradiance that is used. In the latter half of the century, we find that anthropogenic increases in greenhouses gases are largely responsible for the observed warming, balanced by some cooling due to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols, with no evidence for significant solar effects.     

Short Term,Direct Indices of Solar Variability

Indices of solar activity relevant for understanding and modelling solar irradiance variability are identified, and their temporal characteristics compared. Reproducing observed solar irradiance variability requires a minimum of two different types of indices — an index for irradiance depletion by sunspots and an index for global irradiance enhancement by faculae and network. When combined with appropriate wavelength-dependent parameterizations of sunspot and facular contrasts and center-to-limb functions, these indices permit the construction of empirical models of daily, monthly and annual solar total and spectral irradiances. The models are compared with observations at selected wavelengths and for the total irradiance. While the models replicate much of the rotational and 11-year cycle variance in contemporary irradiance databases, differences exist because of either the presence of variability mechanisms additional to solar magnetism, or of unresolved instrumental effects in the databases. The reconstruction of solar irradiance in the past requires speculation about the extent of intercycle fluctuations in the global facular index, or in other, as yet unspecified, variability mechanisms.     

Solar Variation and Stratospheric Response

We have shown in several recent publications that it is necessary to group the meteorological data according to the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) throughout the year, in order to find a clear signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle (SSC). This work is summarized here. It is the purpose of this paper (1) to update earlier results of the solar cycle – QBO relationship for the northern winter, (2) to stress the interaction between the hemispheres and (3) to summarize the influence of the QBO on the solar variability signal, as well as the influence of the solar variability signal on the QBO throughout the year. For this, the constructed annual mean of the solar cycle – QBO relationship is introduced.     

The Middle Atmospheric Ozone Response to the 11-Year Solar Cycle

Because of its chemical and radiative properties, atmospheric ozone constitutes a key element of the Earth’s climate system. Absorption of sunlight by ozone in the ultraviolet wavelength range is responsible for stratospheric heating, and determines the temperature structure of the middle atmosphere. Changes in middle atmospheric ozone concentrations result in an altered radiative input to the troposphere and to the Earth’s surface, with implications on the energy balance and the chemical composition of the lower atmosphere. Although a wide range of ground- and satellite-based measurements of its integrated content and of its vertical distribution have been performed since several decades, a number of uncertainties still remain as to the response of middle atmospheric ozone to changes in solar irradiance over decadal time scales. This paper presents an overview of achieved findings, including a discussion of commonly applied data analysis methods and of their implication for the obtained results. We suggest that because it does not imply least-squares fitting of prescribed periodic or proxy data functions into the considered times series, time-domain analysis provides a more reliable method than multiple regression analysis for extracting decadal-scale signals from observational ozone datasets. Applied to decadal ground-based observations, time-domain analysis indicates an average middle atmospheric ozone increase of the order of 2% from solar minimum to solar maximum, which is in reasonable agreement with model results.     

Total solar irradiance measurements by ERB/Nimbus-7. A review of nine years

The advent of reliable extraterrestrial solar irradiance measurements from satellites has supplied the impetus for new research in solar physics and solar-terrestrial relationships. The records for the principal experiments now extend beyond nine years. The Nimbus-7 measurements began in November 1978 and the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) results started in February 1980. Both the ERB experiment of Nimbus-7 and the ACRIM experiment of SMM are still operational as of this writing (June 1988). We describe the nine-year Nimbus-7 total solar irradiance data set and compare it with similar data sets from the SMM and other satellite solar monitoring programs. Long-term downward trends of less than 0.02 % per year had been noted during the decaying portion of solar cycle 21 with indications that a leveling off and possible reversal of the trend was being experienced as we enter the new cycle. It had been demonstrated that fluctuations in the data over shorter periods corresponded to solar activity, from a primary discovery of irradiance depletions in times of building large sunspot groups to more subtle effects on the scale of solar rotation. Studies of the frequency spectra of the measurements have advanced the interest in helioseismology or mode analysis. Studies of photospheric activity have advanced by modelling of the sunspot blocking and photospheric brightening versus the measured irradiance. The theories are being extended to longer time-scales which indicate that solar irradiance is higher near solar cycle maximum, as defined by activity, and somewhat lower during the period between cycles. While measurements of total solar irradiance, the solar constant, alone cannot be employed to answer all of the questions of solar physics or helioclimatology, these long-term, high-precision data sets are valuable to both disciplines. The continuation of such measurements to more meaningful, longer time-scales should have a high priority in the international space community.     

Solar Variability of Possible Relevance for Planetary Climates

The global variability of the Sun of relevance for planetary climates has been directly measured for the past few decades. For longer stretches of time models are required. Semi-empirical models can now accurately reproduce the measured records of solar total and spectral irradiance, as well as of the magnetic flux. They can also provide reconstructions of these quantities on longer time scales. Here a summary is given of some of the modelling efforts and of the results achieved so far.