The comparative analysis of the forecasts of development of rocket propulsion in past and now

Consideration is being given to use the known long and short forecasts of development of rocket engines in past - at the beginning of development of a missile engineering (K. Tsiolkovsky etc. pioneers of rocket propulsion); on the eve of launching of the artificial satellite of Earth (A. Blagonravov); after manned flight of Yu. Gagarin (V. Gluchko); after manned flight on Moon (“ The Forecasts on 2001 ” on materials of readings R. Goddard in USA); in middle of 70-s' years (D. Sevruk, V. Prisniakov) and at the end of 20 centure. Last years under the initiative R. Beichel and M. Pouliquen IAA. Advanced Propulsion Working Group carries out large researches on definition of the tendencies of development of rocket propulsion for the next forty years, the outcomes which one will be used in the report. The comparison of development of rocket propulsion expected to the end of 20 century and real-life is given. The report analyses the errors of the forecasts of the past - the absence reliable prognostic procedure; the euphoria of the maiden successes of conquest of space; dominance of military and political- propaganda motives of implementation of the space programs before economical; to keep developments secret; competition of two super-powers USSR and USA etc.     

The impact of launch vehicle type and size on development cost

The technical development trend of future launch vehicle systems is towards fully reusable systems, in order to reduce space transportation cost. However, different types of launch vehicles are feasible, as there are

• —winged two-stage systems (WTS)

• —ballistic single-stage vehicles (BSS)

• —ballistic two-stage vehicles (BTS)

The performance of those systems is compared according to the present state of the art as well as the development cost, based on the “TRANSCOST-Model”. The development costs are shown versus launch mass (GLOW) and pay-load for the three types of reusable systems mentioned above.It is shown that performance optimization and cost minimization lead to different results. It is more economic to increase the vehicle size for achieving higher performance, instead of increasing technical complexity.Finally it is described that due to the essentially lower launch cost of reusable vehicles it will be feasible to recover the development cost by an amortization charge on the launch cost. This possibility, however, would allow commercial funding of future launch vehicle developments.     

反舰弹道导弹一体化协同制导与控制

为提高我国火箭军对海上慢速移动目标的精确打击能力和反舰弹道导弹的突防能力,本文针对“领弹-从弹”构型的多反舰弹道导弹一体化协同制导与控制(ICGC)问题,首先通过对数学模型的变换,将一体化协同制导与控制问题提炼为一类高阶带扰动非线性多智能体系统的协同一致性算法的设计问题。其次,针对“领弹-从弹”构型的多反舰弹道导弹系统,在动态面控制(DSC)的框架下,基于一致性理论和结合扩张状态观测器(ESO)理论,设计分布式一体化协同制导与控制律。之后,对闭环系统的稳定性和收敛特性进行了严格的理论证明与分析,并取得收敛条件。一体化协同制导与控制律保证从弹在位置和速度上协同一致地趋近于期望空间构型,并使得从弹有和领弹近乎相同的攻击角度。最后,通过数字仿真对一体化协同制导控制律进行仿真校验。     

The Israeli satellite launch: Capabilities, intentions and implications

The launch of the Israeli satellite Ofeq-1 during September 1988 has significant regional and global implications. These include the proliferation of both surveillance satellites and ballistic missiles, the latter having the potential to deliver conventional, chemical and nuclear warheads to areas situated many hundreds of miles away. This paper addresses both the origins of the Israeli booster technology and the many implications of the satellite launch. It then speculates on their political and arms control consequences. It concludes that in light of the parallelism that has evolved between nuclear and chemical weapons and ballistic missiles, there is an increasing need to develop global and, if appropriate, regional and bilateral strategies to limit missile proliferation and bring the issue to the forefront of international political debate.     

一种对基于耗尽关机多级固体火箭概念设计的改进方法

由于维护简单和发射快速,弹道导弹多用固体火箭发动机,但繁杂的推力终止装置使各级装药不能耗尽并让结构增重。提出了一种对基于耗尽关机多级固体火箭概念设计的改进方法,此方法满足导弹系统主要的战技要求。为解决无推力终止装置的末速不准问题。可在末级发动机采用姿态调整装置,对射角进行调整,配合末速以满足射程要求。本方法还可抑制敌方反导探测。     

Military uses of space-ballistic missile defence

Air Vice-Marshal Menaul argues that the creation of a ballistic missile defence (BMD) system — now within the state of the art — would add immeasurably to the concept of deterrence to war at any level. The reality is that space is already an arena for military operations. Through a review of the technological components and capabilities of a layered defence system as envisaged by the US Fletcher Commission, Air Vice-Marshal Menaul argues for Western support to be given to President Reagan's Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI) and for Europe to begin researching the requirements for a European-based system.     

机动发射弹道导弹集群诸元快速规划

针对机动发射条件下弹道导弹集群的飞行诸元快速规划问题，将神经网络预测与最小二乘优化相结合，提出了一种弹道导弹发射诸元快速规划方法。首先分析了弹道导弹助推段飞行策略并选取适当的发射诸元，以发落点信息为输入，设计双隐藏层诸元预测网络，通过弹道仿真获取弹道数据建立数据集完成网络训练，利用该网络可以得到发射诸元迭代初值。在此基础上，为了消除数据集中样本数据不平衡对发射诸元规划精度的影响，以落点射程、横程、高程偏差最小为指标函数，结合最小二乘优化方法进行迭代获得发射诸元精确解。最后在典型发射场景下，进行了弹道导弹集群机动快速发射仿真验证。结果表明，该方法相较于传统方法可显著提高计算速度与精度，且在给定的大范围机动条件下，能够满足弹道导弹集群对远距离、多目标的快速精确打击。     

Planetary Defense From Space: Part 2 (Simple) Asteroid Deflection Law

A system of two space bases housing missiles for an efficient Planetary Defense of the Earth from asteroids and comets was firstly proposed by this author in 2002. It was then shown that the five Lagrangian points of the Earth–Moon system lead naturally to only two unmistakable locations of these two space bases within the sphere of influence of the Earth. These locations are the two Lagrangian points L1 (in between the Earth and the Moon) and L3 (in the direction opposite to the Moon from the Earth). In fact, placing missiles based at L1 and L3 would enable the missiles to deflect the trajectory of incoming asteroids by hitting them orthogonally to their impact trajectory toward the Earth, thus maximizing the deflection at best. It was also shown that confocal conics are the only class of missile trajectories fulfilling this “best orthogonal deflection” requirement.The mathematical theory developed by the author in the years 2002–2004 was just the beginning of a more expanded research program about the Planetary Defense. In fact, while those papers developed the formal Keplerian theory of the Optimal Planetary Defense achievable from the Earth–Moon Lagrangian points L1 and L3, this paper is devoted to the proof of a simple “(small) asteroid deflection law” relating directly the following variables to each other:

(1) the speed of the arriving asteroid with respect to the Earth (known from the astrometric observations);

(2) the asteroid's size and density (also supposed to be known from astronomical observations of various types);

(3) the “security radius” of the Earth, that is, the minimal sphere around the Earth outside which we must force the asteroid to fly if we want to be safe on Earth. Typically, we assume the security radius to equal about 10,000 km from the Earth center, but this number might be changed by more refined analyses, especially in the case of “rubble pile” asteroids;

(4) the distance from the Earth of the two Lagrangian points L1 and L3 where the defense missiles are to be housed;

(5) the deflecting missile's data, namely its mass and especially its “extra-boost”, that is, the extra-energy by which the missile must hit the asteroid to achieve the requested minimal deflection outside the security radius around the Earth.

This discovery of the simple “asteroid deflection law” presented in this paper was possible because:

(1) In the vicinity of the Earth, the hyperbola of the arriving asteroid is nearly the same as its own asymptote, namely, the asteroid's hyperbola is very much like a straight line. We call this approximation the line/circle approximation. Although “rough” compared to the ordinary Keplerian theory, this approximation simplifies the mathematical problem to such an extent that two simple, final equations can be derived.

(2) The confocal missile trajectory, orthogonal to this straight line, ceases then to be an ellipse to become just a circle centered at the Earth. This fact also simplifies things greatly. Our results are thus to be regarded as a good engineering approximation, valid for a preliminary astronautical design of the missiles and bases at L1 and L3.

Still, many more sophisticated refinements would be needed for a complete Planetary Defense System:

(1) taking into account many perturbation forces of all kinds acting on both the asteroids and missiles shot from L1 and L3;

(2) adding more (non-optimal) trajectories of missiles shot from either the Lagrangian points L4 and L5 of the Earth–Moon system or from the surface of the Moon itself;

(3) encompassing the full range of missiles currently available to the USA (and possibly other countries) so as to really see “which missiles could divert which asteroids”, even just within the very simplified scheme proposed in this paper.

In summary: outlined for the first time in February 2002, our Confocal Planetary Defense concept is a simplified Keplerian Theory that already proved simple enough to catch the attention of scholars, popular writers, and representatives of the US Military. These developments would hopefully mark the beginning of a general mathematical vision for building an efficient Planetary Defense System in space and in the vicinity of the Earth, although not on the surface of the Earth itself!We must make a real progress beyond academic papers, Hollywood movies and secret military plans, before asteroids like 99942 Apophis get close enough to destroy us in 2029 or a little later.     

精确跟踪空间系统发展概况及对抗措施分析

美国导弹防御局将精确跟踪空间系统(PTSS)计划视为未来10年国土和地区防御中最大的提高,PTSS将提供来袭弹道导弹整个飞行弹道的火控跟踪数据,可直接引导武器系统发射拦截导弹,显著扩大了拦截弹的防御作战范围。在深入分析PTSS系统发展概况、功能特性的基础上,围绕BM突防需求,探讨了针对PTSS跟踪相机的对抗技术措施。     

跳跃式导弹弹道设计与优化

详细介绍了跳跃式导弹的概念及其特点,并针对某二级导弹(一级为固体火箭发动机,二级为间隔可调双脉冲固体火箭发动机),根据跳跃式导弹的飞行特点,提出了一种飞行程序角的设计方法,给出了飞行程序角的表达式,并建立了跳跃式弹道优化模型。在跳跃式导弹概念设计阶段,在总体参数给定的情况下,弹道的设计与优化能最大限度地提高导弹的性能,利用混合遗传算法对跳跃式导弹弹道进行了较详细全面的设计与优化,并作了比较。结果表明,该方法适用于跳跃式导弹方案论证和初步设计。     

Lessons from half a century experience of Japanese solid rocketry since Pencil rocket

50 years have passed since a tiny rocket “Pencil” was launched horizontally at Kokubunji near Tokyo in 1955. Though there existed high level of rocket technology in Japan before the end of the second World War, it was not succeeded by the country after the War. Pencil therefore was the substantial start of Japanese rocketry that opened the way to the present stage.In the meantime, a rocket group of the University of Tokyo contributed to the International Geophysical Year in 1957–1958 by developing bigger rockets, and in 1970, the group succeeded in injecting first Japanese satellite OHSUMI into earth orbit. It was just before the launch of OHSUMI that Japan had built up the double feature system of science and applications in space efforts. The former has been pursued by ISAS (the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science) of the University of Tokyo, and the latter by NASDA (National Space Development Agency). This unique system worked quite efficiently because space activities in scientific and applicational areas could develop rather independently without affecting each other.Thus Japan's space science ran up rapidly to the international stage under the support of solid propellant rocket technology, and, after a 20 year technological introduction period from the US, a big liquid propellant launch vehicle, H-II, at last was developed on the basis of Japan's own technology in the early 1990's. On October 1, 2003, as a part of Governmental Reform, three Japanese space agencies were consolidated into a single agency, JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency), and Japan's space efforts began to walk toward the future in a globally coordinated fashion, including aeronautics, astronautics, space science, satellite technology, etc., at the same time. This paper surveys the history of Japanese rocketry briefly, and draws out the lessons from it to make a new history of Japan's space efforts more meaningful.     

基于整体级概念的多级固体运载火箭设计与优化

针对多级固体运载火箭小型化需求,采用整体级概念(ISC)进行总体方案改造和优化设计.描述了2种ISC概念的特点,以某三级常规方案固体运载火箭为基准,通过利用级间的剩余空间,完成ISC方案改造.建立了运载火箭的整体级发动机动力计算模型、气动计算模型和弹道计算模型,并结合任务指标要求,提出了运载火箭的总体参数优化模型.在相同的任务条件下,完成了常规方案和2种ISC方案的优化.结果表明,引入ISC概念可将运载火箭体积缩小15%～20%,起飞总重缩小1%～1.5%,满足了总体指标要求,达到了运载火箭小型化设计目的.     

弹道导弹发射阵地的生存和防护

主要分析了弹道导弹发射阵地可能面临的来自空间和空中的威胁,包括被侦察和被攻击的威胁。提出了提高弹道导弹发射阵地的生存能力和防护能力应配备的电子防护系统,包括发射阵地的战场电磁环境信息监测系统和综合电子干扰系统。     

Technology and Market Prospect Analysis of Low Cost Small-lift Launch Vehicles for Small Satellites

The technological development status of new generation low cost small-lift launch vehicles applied to small satellite launch is investigated in this paper. The development trends are summarized, including low cost and rapid response capability, utilization of mature rocket and missile technology, the development of mobile launch technology adopting air-based platforms and use of innovative technology. Moreover, the external power and internal demand of the small-lift launch vehicle are analyzed and the market prospect is forecasted. Finally, proposals for the development of small-lift launch vehicles are put forward, including exploration of the potential of existing rocket and missile technology, development of multi-platform mobile launch technology and further application of innovative technology and ideas.     

预警卫星对弹道导弹发射点战术参数的估计

为了对导弹发射点战术参数进行准确估计,需要根据预警卫星的探测信息对导弹进行定位。基于双星定位原理及导弹弹道特性,给出了从测量坐标系到地球固定坐标系的转换模型、发射点时刻以及发射点位置估计模型,并利用仿真工具STK,结合美国新一代导弹预警卫星系统——空间跟踪与监视系统(STSS),对发射点战术参数的估计进行了仿真。仿真结果表明了该算法的有效性,并说明STSS与传统预警卫星相比,具有更好的探测预警能力。     

Arms control and disarmament in space: the rough road to Vienna 1984: Part I

This article examines the international legal and diplomatic questions relating to arms control and disarmament, focusing on space-based activities. These relate importantly to the development of anti-satellite satellites (ASATs) and ballistic missile defence systems (BMDs). Part I of the article examines the goal of ‘peaceful uses’ of outer space as elaborated in national policies and in international fora, the debate that has has taken place at the international level over the meaning and definition of peaceful purposes, legal manoeuvres, particularly in the UN, and US responses, and recent Soviet initiatives relating to space militarization. Part II will appear in the next issue, and will consider the US Presidential-Congressional dialogue on these questions and recent Presidential initiatives.     

导弹/火箭制导、导航与控制技术发展与展望

本文对导弹/火箭制导、导航与控制(GNC)技术的发展进行了综述。总结归纳了不同阶段GNC关键技术的突破与跨越,重点对惯性导航、组合导航、摄动制导、闭路制导、迭代制导、频域设计、全数字设计、冗余控制、自适应控制等多项技术进行了总结和应用成果论述。〖JP2〗对未来GNC技术的发展进行了思考与展望,并提出了七项关键技术。针对更聪明、更自主的弹/箭控制技术发展需求,提出并分析了“会学习”弹/箭的制导、导航与控制技术。     

速燃发动机在战略导弹助推段突防技术中的应用研究

助推段拦截是美国NMD，TMD系统的一个重要组成部分。这一作战方式对弹导弹的防提出了更高的要求，采用速燃发动机降低助推段高度，缩短助推时间是反助推段拦截的有效手段。以一种假定的三级固体助洲际导弹为对象，分析了提高燃速对导弹射程及助推段性能的影响，验证了采用速燃发动机技术提高导弹突防能力的可行性。     

弹-架间隙的非线性模拟与特性分析

以大长径比低速旋转火箭为例,探讨弹-架间隙非线性特性对不同发射装置系统的动力响应的影响,当飞行器以S个定心部沿发射装置滑移时,根据弹、架横向相对位移确定其定心部处接触刚度和支承特性,模拟弹-架间隙效应。分别就刚性和柔性两种发射装置,分析了间隙量、支承刚度和转速等因素对飞行器发射中的姿态和系统动力特性的影响,算例与实际情况的相吻合证明了该方法的有效性。     

高超声速跳跃-滑翔弹道方案设计及优化

针时常规弹道导弹突防能力差、成本高的缺点,提出了一种高超声速跣跃-滑翔弹道方案.以某弹道导弹为例,通过采用高升阻比外形和末级发动机多次点火技术,将其再入弹道设计成大气层边缘的跳跃-滑翔弹道,并以航程为目标对弹道进行了优化.结果表明,跳跃-滑翔弹道能大幅增加导弹航程,同时还具有较强的突防能力,而且当跳跃幅度较大时,还可减轻气动加热;优化后导弹的航程进一步增加,跳跃幅度减小,热流峰值减小,加热时间和总气动加热量增加.