The Climate Response to the Astronomical Forcing

Links between climate and Earth’s orbit have been proposed for about 160 years. Two decisive advances towards an astronomical theory of palæoclimates were Milankovitch’s theory of insolation (1941) and independent findings, in 1976, of a double precession frequency peak in marine sediment data and from celestial mechanics calculations. The present chapter reviews three essential elements of any astronomical theory of climate: (1) to calculate the orbital elements, (2) to infer insolation changes from climatic precession, obliquity and eccentricity, and (3) to estimate the impact of these variations on climate. The Louvain-la-Neuve climate-ice sheet model has been an important instrument for confirming the relevance of Milankovitch’s theory, but it also evidences the critical role played by greenhouse gases during periods of low eccentricity. It is recognised today that climatic interactions at the global scale were involved in the processes of glacial inception and deglaciation. Three examples are given, related to the responses of the carbon cycle, hydrological cycle, and the terrestrial biosphere, respectively. The chapter concludes on an outlook on future research directions on this topic.     

The Orbital Forcing of Climate Changes on Mars

Solar variability influences the climate of a planet by radiatively forcing changes over a certain timescale; orbital variations of a planet, which yield similar solar forcing modulations, can be studied within the same scientific context. It is known for Earth that obliquity changes have played a critical role in pacing glacial and interglacial eras. For Mars, such orbital changes have been far greater and have generated extreme variations in insolation. Signatures associated with the presence of water ice reservoirs at various positions across the surface of Mars during periods of different orbital configurations have been identified. For this reason, it has been proposed that Mars is currently evolving between ice ages. The advent of climate tools has given a theoretical frame to the study of orbitally-induced climate changes on Mars. These models have provided an explanation to many puzzling observations, which when put together have permitted reconstruction of almost the entire history of Mars in the last 10 million years. This paper proposes to give an overview of the scientific work dedicated to this topic.     

On the Response of the Climate System to Solar Forcing

The climate response to changes in radiative forcing depends crucially on climate feedback processes, with the consequence that solar and greenhouse gas forcing have both similar response patterns in the troposphere. This circumstance complicates significantly the attribution of the causes of climate change. Additionally, the climate system displays a high level of unforced intrinsic variability, and significant variations in the climate of many parts of the world are due to internal processes. Such internal modes contribute significantly to the variability of climate system on various time scales, and thus compete with external forcing in explaining the origin of past climate extremes. This highlights the need for independent observations of solar forcing including long-term consistent observational records of the total and spectrally resolved solar irradiance. The stratospheric response to solar forcing is different from its response to greenhouse gas forcing, thus suggesting that stratospheric observations could offer the best target for the identification of the specific influence of solar forcing on climate.     

Solar Forcing of Climate. 2: Evidence from the Past

The nature of the climatic response to solar forcing and its geographical coherence is reviewed. This information is of direct relevance for evaluating solar forcing mechanisms and validating climate models. Interpretation of Sun-climate relationships is hampered by difficulties in (1) translating proxy records into quantitative climate parameters (2) obtaining accurate age assessments (3) elucidating spatial patterns and relationships (4) separating solar forcing from other forcing mechanisms (5) lacking physical understanding of the solar forcing mechanisms. This often limits assessment of past solar forcing of climate to identification of correlations between environmental change and solar variability. The noisy character and often insufficient temporal resolution of proxy records often exclude the detection of high frequency decadal and bi-decadal cycles. However, on multi-decadal and longer time scales, notably the ∼90 years Gleisberg, and ∼200 years Suess cycles in the ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C proxy records of solar activity are also well presented in the environmental proxy records. The additional ∼1500 years Bond cycle may result from interference between centennial-band solar cycles. Proxy evidence for Sun-climate relations is hardly present for Africa, South America and the marine realm; probably more due to a lack of information than a lack of response to solar forcing. At low latitudes, equatorward movement of the ITCZ (upward component of the Hadley cell) occurs upon a decrease in solar activity, explaining humidity changes for (1) Mesoamerica and adjacent North and South American regions and (2) East Africa and the Indian and Chinese Monsoon systems. At middle latitudes equatorward movement of the zonal circulation during solar minima probably (co-)induces wet and cool episodes in Western Europe, and Terra del Fuego as well as humidity changes in Southern Africa, Australia, New Zealand and the Mediterranean. The polar regions seem to expand during solar minima which, at least for the northern hemisphere is evident in southward extension of the Atlantic ice cover. The forcing-induced migration of climate regimes implies that solar forcing induces a non linear response at a given location. This complicates the assessment of Sun-climate relations and calls for nonlinear analysis of multiple long and high resolution records at regional scale. Unfortunately nonlinear Sun-climate analysis is still a largely barren field, despite the fact that major global climate configurations (e.g. the ENSO and AO) follow nonlinear dynamics. The strength of solar forcing relative to other forcings (e.g. volcanism, ocean circulation patterns, tides, and geomagnetism) is another source of dynamic responses. Notably the climatic effects of tides and geomagnetism are hitherto largely enigmatic. Few but well-dated studies suggest almost instantaneous, climatic deteriorations in response to rapid decreases in solar activity. Such early responses put severe limits to the solar forcing mechanisms and the extent of this phenomenon should be a key issue for future Sun-climate studies.     

Radiative properties of pulsar magnetospheres

We discuss recent results of radius to frequency mapping of pulsars. This method shows that for 43 pulsars the radio emission originates near the polar cap for millisecond pulsars and a few hundred km away for longer period pulsars. If the magnetospheres of these object contain dipolar magnetic fields, the corresponding magnetic field strength in the emission region is about 10⁷ gauss, for all pulsars in the sample. We investigate possible physical reasons for the location of the radio emission.     

Principles of Invariance in Radiative Transfer

We have reviewed the principle of invariance, its applications and its usefulness for obtaining the radiation field in semi-infinite and finite atmospheres. Various laws of scattering in dispersive media and the consequent radiation field are studied. The H-functions and X- and Y-functions in semi-infinite and finite media respectively are derived in a few cases. The Discrete Space Theory (DST) which is a general form of the Principle of Invariance is described. The method of addition of layers with general properties, is shown to describe all the properties of multiple scattering. A few examples of the application of DST such as polarization, line formation in expanding stellar atmospheres, etc., and a numerical analysis of DST are presented. Other developments in the theory of radiative transfer are briefly described. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Venus Atmospheric Thermal Structure and Radiative Balance

From the discovery that Venus has an atmosphere during the 1761 transit by M. Lomonosov to the current exploration of the planet by the Akatsuki orbiter, we continue to learn about the planet’s extreme climate and weather. This chapter attempts to provide a comprehensive but by no means exhaustive review of the results of the atmospheric thermal structure and radiative balance since the earlier works published in Venus and Venus II books from recent spacecraft and Earth based investigations and summarizes the gaps in our current knowledge. There have been no in-situ measurements of the deep Venus atmosphere since the flights of the two VeGa balloons and landers in 1985 (Sagdeev et al., Science 231:1411–1414, 1986). Thus, most of the new information about the atmospheric thermal structure has come from different remote sensing (Earth based and spacecraft) techniques using occultations (solar infrared, stellar ultraviolet and orbiter radio occultations), spectroscopy and microwave, short wave and thermal infrared emissions. The results are restricted to altitudes higher than about 40 km, except for one investigation of the near surface static stability inferred by Meadows and Crisp (J. Geophys. Res. 101:4595–4622, 1996) from 1 \(\upmu\)m observations from Earth. Little information about the lower atmospheric structure is possible below about 40 km altitude from radio occultations due to large bending angles. The gaps in our knowledge include spectral albedo variations over time, vertical variation of the bulk composition of the atmosphere (mean molecular weight), the identity, properties and abundances of absorbers of incident solar radiation in the clouds. The causes of opacity variations in the nightside cloud cover and vertical gradients in the deep atmosphere bulk composition and its impact on static stability are also in need of critical studies. The knowledge gaps and questions about Venus and its atmosphere provide the incentive for obtaining the necessary measurements to understand the planet, which can provide some clues to learn about terrestrial exoplanets.     

Radiative and hybrid cooling of infrared space telescopes

The designs of cold space telescopes, cryogenic and radiatively cooled, are similar in most elements and both benefit from orbits distant from the Earth. In particular such orbits allow the anti-sunward side of radiatively-cooled spacecraft to be used to provide large cooling radiators for the individual radiation shields. Designs incorporating these features have predictedT _tel near 20 K. The attainability of such temperatures is supported by limited practical experience (IRAS, COBE). Supplementary cooling systems (cryogens, mechanical coolers) can be advantageously combined with radiative cooling in hybrid designs to provide robustness against deterioration and yet lower temperatures for detectors, instruments, and even the whole telescope. The possibility of such major additional gains is illustrated by the Very Cold Telescope option under study forEdison, which should offerT _tel5 K for a little extra mechanical cooling capacity.     

Collisional and Radiative Processes in Optically Thin Plasmas

Most of our knowledge of the physical processes in distant plasmas is obtained through measurement of the radiation they produce. Here we provide an overview of the main collisional and radiative processes and examples of diagnostics relevant to the microphysical processes in the plasma. Many analyses assume a time-steady plasma with ion populations in equilibrium with the local temperature and Maxwellian distributions of particle velocities, but these assumptions are easily violated in many cases. We consider these departures from equilibrium and possible diagnostics in detail.     

Planetary Magnetic Fields and Solar Forcing: Implications for Atmospheric Evolution

The solar wind and the solar XUV/EUV radiation constitute a permanent forcing of the upper atmosphere of the planets in our solar system, thereby affecting the habitability and chances for life to emerge on a planet. The forcing is essentially inversely proportional to the square of the distance to the Sun and, therefore, is most important for the innermost planets in our solar system—the Earth-like planets. The effect of these two forcing terms is to ionize, heat, chemically modify, and slowly erode the upper atmosphere throughout the lifetime of a planet. The closer to the Sun, the more efficient are these process. Atmospheric erosion is due to thermal and non-thermal escape. Gravity constitutes the major protection mechanism for thermal escape, while the non-thermal escape caused by the ionizing X-rays and EUV radiation and the solar wind require other means of protection. Ionospheric plasma energization and ion pickup represent two categories of non-thermal escape processes that may bring matter up to high velocities, well beyond escape velocity. These energization processes have now been studied by a number of plasma instruments orbiting Earth, Mars, and Venus for decades. Plasma measurement results therefore constitute the most useful empirical data basis for the subject under discussion. This does not imply that ionospheric plasma energization and ion pickup are the main processes for the atmospheric escape, but they remain processes that can be most easily tested against empirical data. Shielding the upper atmosphere of a planet against solar XUV, EUV, and solar wind forcing requires strong gravity and a strong intrinsic dipole magnetic field. For instance, the strong dipole magnetic field of the Earth provides a “magnetic umbrella”, fending of the solar wind at a distance of 10 Earth radii. Conversely, the lack of a strong intrinsic magnetic field at Mars and Venus means that the solar wind has more direct access to their topside atmosphere, the reason that Mars and Venus, planets lacking strong intrinsic magnetic fields, have so much less water than the Earth? Climatologic and atmospheric loss process over evolutionary timescales of planetary atmospheres can only be understood if one considers the fact that the radiation and plasma environment of the Sun has changed substantially with time. Standard stellar evolutionary models indicate that the Sun after its arrival at the Zero-Age Main Sequence (ZAMS) 4.5 Gyr ago had a total luminosity of ≈70% of the present Sun. This should have led to a much cooler Earth in the past, while geological and fossil evidence indicate otherwise. In addition, observations by various satellites and studies of solar proxies (Sun-like stars with different age) indicate that the young Sun was rotating more than 10 times its present rate and had correspondingly strong dynamo-driven high-energy emissions which resulted in strong X-ray and extreme ultraviolet (XUV) emissions, up to several 100 times stronger than the present Sun. Further, evidence of a much denser early solar wind and the mass loss rate of the young Sun can be determined from collision of ionized stellar winds of the solar proxies, with the partially ionized gas in the interstellar medium. Empirical correlations of stellar mass loss rates with X-ray surface flux values allows one to estimate the solar wind mass flux at earlier times, when the solar wind may have been more than 1000 times more massive. The main conclusions drawn on basis of the Sun-in-time-, and a time-dependent model of plasma energization/escape is that:

1. Solar forcing is effective in removing volatiles, primarily water, from planets,
2. planets orbiting close to the early Sun were subject to a heavy loss of water, the effect being most profound for Venus and Mars, and
3. a persistent planetary magnetic field, like the Earth’s dipole field, provides a shield against solar wind scavenging.

     

某飞机部件高速风洞测力天平研制

为满足某飞机部件高速测力试验的需要,研制6台部件测力天平来测量飞机不同部件（机翼、平尾、垂尾、短舱、短舱＋挂架、翼尖小翼）所受的气动载荷,天平设计载荷极不匹配,且模型空间有严格的限制。设计时,主机测力天平采用后腹支撑,安装在机身构造线的下方,为部件天平的安装提供了可能,同时针对不同的天平采用了不同的结构形式：机翼天平采用正八边形结构,垂尾天平采用三片梁结构,平尾天平、短舱、短舱＋挂架采用矩形梁结构,翼尖小翼天平采用“z”字形结构,既满足了天平的测量需要,又确保了天平在模型中的安装位置和试验的足够间隙。部件天平的成功研制,及时为型号研制提供了可靠的试验数据。     

Solar Influence on Earth's Climate

An increasing number of studies indicate that variations in solar activity have had a significant influence on Earth's climate. However, the mechanisms responsible for a solar influence are still not known. One possibility is that atmospheric transparency is influenced by changing cloud properties via cosmic ray ionisation (the latter being modulated by solar activity). Support for this idea is found from satellite observations of cloud cover. Such data have revealed a striking correlation between the intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and low liquid clouds (<3.2 km). GCR are responsible for nearly all ionisation in the atmosphere below 35 km. One mechanism could involve ion-induced formation of aerosol particles (diameter range, 0.001–1.0 μm) that can act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). A systematic variation in the properties of CCN will affect the cloud droplet distribution and thereby influence the radiative properties of clouds. If the GCR-Cloud link is confirmed variations in galactic cosmic ray flux, caused by changes in solar activity and the space environment, could influence Earth's radiation budget. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Cosmic Rays and Earth's Climate

During the last solar cycle the Earth's cloud cover underwent a modulation in phase with the cosmic ray flux. Assuming that there is a causal relationship between the two, it is expected and found that the Earth's temperature follows more closely decade variations in cosmic ray flux than other solar activity parameters. If the relationship is real the state of the Heliosphere affects the Earth's climate. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

沙漠气候对武器装备的影响--两次伊拉克战争的启示

伊拉克除东北部山区外的境内大部分地区属于亚热带沙漠气候,全年只有冬夏两季,4月至11月是夏季,12月至翌年3月是冬季.     

Climate Observations - The Instrumental Record

A survey is given of the available instrumental data for monitoring and analysis of climatic variations. We focus on temperature measurements, both over land and ocean, at the surface and aloft.Over land, the older observations were subject to exposure changes which may not have been fully compensated. The effects of urbanization have been largely avoided in studies of climatic change over the last 150 years. There are few records for pre-1850 outside Europe and eastern North America, and the global network shows a recent decline. Over the ocean, sea surface temperature (SST) has been measured using buckets, engine intakes, hull sensors, buoys, and satellites. Many of these data have been effectively homogenized, but new challenges arise as observing systems evolve. Available SST and marine air temperature datasets begin in the 1850s. The data are concentrated in shipping lanes especially before 1900, and very sparse during the world wars, but additional historical data are being digitized.The radiosonde record is short (40 years) and has major gaps over the oceans, tropics and Southern Hemisphere. Instrumental heterogeneities are beginning to be assessed and removed using physical and statistical techniques. The MSU record is complete but only began in 1979, and is not highly resolved in the vertical: major biases, mainly affecting the lower-tropospheric retrieval, have been reduced as a result of recent analyses.Advanced interpolation or data-assimilation techniques are being applied to these data, but the results must be interpreted with care.     

Aerosol Effects on Clouds and Climate

Aerosols affect the climate system by changing cloud characteristics in many ways. They act as cloud condensation and ice nuclei, they may inhibit freezing and they could have an influence on the hydrological cycle. While the cloud albedo enhancement (Twomey effect) of warm clouds received most attention so far and traditionally is the only indirect aerosol forcing considered in transient climate simulations, here I discuss the multitude of effects.     

创业氛围与环境优化

创业环境的优化是一个内外协同演进的共生过程,培育一定的创业氛围是其中至关重要的中间环节。创业环境包括两个组成部分：内生决定的创业氛围和外部影响的创业条件。现阶段,决定我国创业水平的环境因素是创业氛围,它表现为显在与潜在的创业者行为方式,是一种主观的生态环境。不同区域创业环境优化的政策思路应当有别,落后的中西部地区创业环境建设的关键在于形成一定的创业氛围,否则,客观的创业条件再怎么改善也很难有效刺激创业活动。     

The Influence of Total Solar Irradiance on Climate

To estimate the effect of the solar variability on the climate, two estimates of the solar intensity variations during the last three centuries have been used as forcing in numerical simulations. The model employed to carry out the experiments was the same coupled global ocean-atmosphere model used in a number of studies to assess the effect of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases on climate. The near surface temperature and the tropospheric temperature distribution shows a clear response to the variability of the solar input. Even the thermohaline circulation reacts on the large amplitudes in the forcing. In the stratosphere, the response pattern is similar as in the observations, however, the 11-year cycle found in the forcing data does not excite an appreciable response. This might be due to the missing parameterisation of the increase in the UV-radiation at the solar cycle maximum and the connected increase of the stratospheric ozone concentration.     

The Response of the Middle Atmosphere to Solar Cycle Forcing in the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere

This paper studies the response of the middle atmosphere to the 11-year solar cycle. The study is based on numerical simulations with the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), a chemistry climate model that resolves the atmosphere from the Earth’s surface up to about 250 km. Results presented here are obtained in two multi-year time-slice runs for solar maximum and minimum conditions, respectively. The magnitude of the simulated annual and zonal mean stratospheric response in temperature and ozone corresponds well to observations. The dynamical model response is studied for northern hemisphere winter. Here, the zonal mean wind change differs substantially from observations. The statistical significance of the model’s dynamical response is, however, poor for most regions of the atmosphere. Finally, we discuss several issues that render the evaluation of model results with available analyses of observational data of the stratosphere and mesosphere difficult. This includes the possibility that the atmospheric response to solar variability may depend strongly on longitude.