Solar Variability and Climate Impact on Terrestrial Planets

Some possible factors of climate changes and of long term climate evolution are discussed with regard of the three terrestrial planets, Earth, Venus and Mars. Two positive feedback mechanisms involving liquid water, i.e., the albedo mechanism and the greenhouse effect of water vapour, are described. These feedback mechanisms respond to small external forcings, such as resulting from solar or astronomical constants variability, which might thus result in large influences on climatic changes on Earth. On Venus, reactions of the atmosphere with surface minerals play an important role in the climate system, but the involved time scales are much larger. On Mars, climate is changing through variations of the polar axis inclination over time scales of ～10⁵–10⁶ years. Growing evidence also exists that a major climatic change happened on Mars some 3.5 to 3.8 Gigayears ago, leading to the disappearance of liquid water on the planet surface by eliminating most of the CO₂ atmosphere greenhouse power. This change might be due to a large surge of the solar wind, or to atmospheric erosion by large bodies impacts. Indeed, except for their thermospheric temperature response, there is currently little evidence for an effect of long-term solar variability on the climate of Venus and Mars. This fact is possibly due to the absence of liquid water on these terrestrial planets.     

Solar Variability and the Earth's Climate: Introduction and Overview

Numerous attempts have been made over the years to link various aspects of solar variability to changes in the Earth's climate. There has been growing interest in this possible connection in recent years, spurred largely by the need to understand the natural causes of climate change, against which the expected global warming due to man's activities will have to be detected. The time scale of concern here is that of decades to centuries, and excludes the longer millennial scale in which orbital variations play a dominant role. The field has long been plagued by the lack of an acceptable physical mechanism by which solar variability can affect climate, but the discovery of variability in the Sun's total irradiance (the solar ``constant' of meteorology) by spacecraft instruments has pointed to a direct mechanism. Other less direct mechanisms that have been suggested involve variations in the Sun's ultraviolet flux and in the plasma outflow of the solar wind. The purpose of this paper is to summarize the current state of the field, emphasizing the proposed mechanisms as an introduction to the more detailed papers that follow. The particular case of sea-surface temperature data will be used as an illustration.     

Long Term Climate Records from Polar Ice

One of the great challenges in climate research is to investigate the principal mechanisms that control global climatic changes and an effective way to learn more about it, is the reconstruction of past climate changes. The most important sources of information about such changes and the associated composition of the atmosphere are the two large ice caps of Greenland and Antarctica. Analysis of ice cores is the most powerful means we have to determine how climate has changed over the last few climatic cycles, and to relate this to changes in atmospheric composition, in particular to concentrations of the principal greenhouse gases – CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide).Transitions from cold ice age climates to warmer interstadials have always been accompanied by an increase of the atmospheric concentration of the three principal greenhouse gases. This increase has been, at least for CO₂, vital for the ending of glacial epochs. A highly simplified course of events for the past four transitions would then be as follows: first, changing orbital parameters initiated the end of the glacial epoch; second, an increase in greenhouse gases then amplified the weak orbital signal; third, in the second half of the transition, warming was further amplified by decreasing albedo, caused by melting of the large ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere going parallel with a change of the ocean circulation.The isotopic records of Greenland ice cores show evidence for fast and drastic climatic changes during the last glacial epoch. Possible causes and mechanisms of such changes and their significance as global climatic events are discussed here. Ice core results also enable the reaction of the environment to past global changes to be investigated.It will also be discussed how reliable stable isotope records are as a local temperature proxy and how representative paleoclimatic results from Greenland and Antarctica are in relation to global climate.     

Solar Variability Over the Past Several Millennia

The Sun is the most important energy source for the Earth. Since the incoming solar radiation is not equally distributed and peaks at low latitudes the climate system is continuously transporting energy towards the polar regions. Any variability in the Sun-Earth system may ultimately cause a climate change. There are two main variability components that are related to the Sun. The first is due to changes in the orbital parameters of the Earth induced by the other planets. Their gravitational perturbations induce changes with characteristic time scales in the eccentricity (～100,000 years), the obliquity (angle between the equator and the orbital plane) (～40,000 years) and the precession of the Earth’s axis (～20,000 years). The second component is due to variability within the Sun. A variety of observational proxies reflecting different aspects of solar activity show similar features regarding periodic variability, trends and periods of very low solar activity (so-called grand minima) which seem to be positively correlated with the total and the spectral solar irradiance. The length of these records ranges from 25 years (solar irradiance) to 400 years (sunspots). In order to establish a quantitative relationship between solar variability and solar forcing it is necessary to extend the records of solar variability much further back in time and to identify the physical processes linking solar activity and total and spectral solar irradiance. The first step, the extension of solar variability, can be achieved by using cosmogenic radionuclides such as ¹⁰Be in ice cores. After removing the effect of the changing geomagnetic field, a 9000-year long record of solar modulation was obtained. Comparison with paleoclimatic data provides strong evidence for a causal relationship between solar variability and climate change. It will be the subject of the next step to investigate the underlying physical processes that link solar variability with the total and spectral solar irradiance.     

微环形腔内有氧条件下CH4/H2O/CO2催化重整反应特性数值研究

基于表面反应详细机理,数值研究了微环形腔内有氧条件下,组分、温度、质量流量对甲烷/水/二氧化碳催化重整反应特性的影响.结果表明:低温下,增大水的含量可提高产氢量,而增大二氧化碳含量对产氢量无明显影响.增大二氧化碳或水的含量,可提高甲烷转化率.低温下二氧化碳、水等组分的改变对甲烷重整反应的影响较小,高温下组分的影响增强.质量流量增大,出口氢气、一氧化碳质量分数和甲烷转化率明显降低.高流量下加入水或二氧化碳对甲烷转化率的影响已不再明显.当水(二氧化碳)作为产物时,质量流量的增大对其影响并不大;而做为反应物时,质量流量增大,使出口处水(二氧化碳)的质量分数升高.      

Resonance in a coupled solar-climate model

The 11–year solar activity cycle is magnetic in origin and is responsible for small changes in solar luminosity and the modulation of the solar wind. The terrestrial climate exhibits much internal variability supporting oscillations with many frequencies. The direct effect of changing solar irradiance in driving climatic change is believed to be small, and amplification mechanisms are needed to enhance the role of solar variability. In this paper we demonstrate that resonance may play a crucial role in the dynamics of the climate system, by using the output from a nonlinear solar dynamo model as a weak input to a simplified climate model. The climate is modelled as oscillating about two fixed points (corresponding to a warm and cold state) with the weak chaotically modulated solar forcing on average pushing the solution towards the warm state. When a typical frequency of the input is similar to that of the chaotic climate system then a dramatic increase in the role of the solar forcing is apparent and complicated intermittent behaviour is observed. The nonlinear effects are subtle however, and forcing that on average pushes the solution towards the warm state may lead to increased intervals of oscillation about either state. Owing to the intermittent nature of the timeseries, analysis of the relevant timeseries is shown to be non-trivial.     

Promotional effect of silica on the combustion of nano-sized aluminum powder in carbon dioxide

This paper presents how the combustion performance of nano-sized aluminum(nAl)powder in carbon dioxide are affected by silica. The ignition and combustion performance of nAl powder with silica addition were studied by a high-temperature tube furnace. An s-type thermocouple and a high-speed motion acquisition instrument were performed to evaluate the ignition temperature, maximum combustion temperature, maximum change of rate of temperature, and combustion propagation speed. The combustion effici...     

Detection and attribution of climate change, and understanding solar influence on climate

The detection of externally-forced climate change in observations, and its attribution to specific forcings, sounds simple enough to some people, but with others it has a reputation as a complex and arcane specialism. In fact, both these impressions have some truth - in principle it is no more than regressing expected patterns of climate change (normally obtained from GCM sim-ulations forced with observed or reconstructed past forcings) against the corresponding observa-tions, with uncertainty estimates that try to be as rigorous as possible, but there are many technical complexities. This survey begins with some motivating examples, and then summarizes the principles, problems and procedure without formal mathematics, before surveying results with an emphasis on possible solar effects, and why they are particularly problematic.     

“微藻-小白鼠”二元生态系统气体交换规律研究

为探讨“微藻-小白鼠”二元生态系统中氧气和二氧化碳交换规律,进一步评价空间微藻光生物反应器地面试验样机生产螺旋藻的能力,开展了螺旋藻和小白鼠的整合试验研究。将微藻光生物反应器和动物活动室组成气路闭环系统,试验期间连续监测系统中氧气和二氧化碳含量、小白鼠的活动状况、藻液pH变化以及藻体浓度含量等指标。试验结果表明,螺旋藻生长良好,系统闭环后促进了藻体的生长;从小白鼠的体征来看,小白鼠生活正常,但对小白鼠的生理影响还需深入研究。螺旋藻和小白鼠间能实现氧气和二氧化碳的完全交换,螺旋藻具有较强的吸收二氧化碳和放氧能力,可作为未来受控生态生保系统中的重要生物部件。     

1.5级涡轮实验台前腔燃气入侵实验

在1.5级涡轮实验台上,针对不同转速和不同封严质量流量,分别采用稳态压力测量、瞬态压力测量和二氧化碳体积分数法对燃气入侵现象进行了实验研究,以确定不同工况下主流的动静叶相互作用对燃气入侵的影响以及入侵到盘腔的燃气在腔内与冷气的掺混过程.结果表明:静叶后的时均压力在周向有明显的周期分布,部分区域封严环外的压力高于腔内压力,且随着封严质量流量增加,这一区域逐渐缩小;动叶扫掠带来同频率的压力波动,对于燃气入侵的发生有着重要的影响;通过二氧化碳体积分数实验获得了最小封严质量流量,并得到在封严质量流量不足情况下燃气沿着静盘侧入侵盘腔的结果.      

Geochemical Reservoirs and Timing of Sulfur Cycling on Mars

Sulfate-dominated sedimentary deposits are widespread on the surface of Mars, which contrasts with the rarity of carbonate deposits, and indicates surface waters with chemical features drastically different from those on Earth. While the Earth’s surface chemistry and climate are intimately tied to the carbon cycle, it is the sulfur cycle that most strongly influences the Martian geosystems. The presence of sulfate minerals observed from orbit and in-situ via surface exploration within sedimentary rocks and unconsolidated regolith traces a history of post-Noachian aqueous processes mediated by sulfur. These materials likely formed in water-limited aqueous conditions compared to environments indicated by clay minerals and localized carbonates that formed in surface and subsurface settings on early Mars. Constraining the timing of sulfur delivery to the Martian exosphere, as well as volcanogenic H₂O is therefore central, as it combines with volcanogenic sulfur to produce acidic fluids and ice. Here, we reassess and review the Martian geochemical reservoirs of sulfur from the innermost core, to the mantle, crust, and surficial sediments. The recognized occurrences and the mineralogical features of sedimentary sulfate deposits are synthesized and summarized. Existing models of formation of sedimentary sulfate are discussed and related to weathering processes and chemical conditions of surface waters. We also review existing models of sulfur content in the Martian mantle and analyze how volcanic activities may have transferred igneous sulfur into the exosphere and evaluate the mass transfers and speciation relationships between volcanic sulfur and sedimentary sulfates. The sedimentary clay-sulfate succession can be reconciled with a continuous volcanic eruption rate throughout the Noachian-Hesperian, but a process occurring around the mid-Noachian must have profoundly changed the composition of volcanic degassing. A hypothetical increase in the oxidation state or in water content of Martian lavas or a decrease in atmospheric pressure is necessary to account for such a change in composition of volcanic gases. This would allow the pre mid-Noachian volcanic gases to be dominated by water and carbon-species but late Noachian and Hesperian volcanic gases to be sulfur-rich and characterized by high SO₂ content. Interruption of early dynamo and impact ejection of the atmosphere may have decreased the atmospheric pressure during the early Noachian whereas it remains unclear how the redox state or water content of lavas could have changed. Nevertheless, volcanic emission of SO₂ rich gases since the late Noachian can explain many features of Martian sulfate-rich regolith, including the mass of sulfate and the particular chemical features (i.e. acidity) of surface waters accompanying these deposits. How SO₂ impacted on Mars’s climate, with possible short time scale global warming and long time scale cooling effects, remains controversial. However, the ancient wet and warm era on Mars seems incompatible with elevated atmospheric sulfur dioxide because conditions favorable to volcanic SO₂ degassing were most likely not in place at this time.     

Discussion of the Solar UV/Planetary Wave Mechanism

Of all the suggested mechanisms for solar activity influences on climate, the solar UV/planetary wave mechanism has been investigated most carefully in a manner that allows comparison with observations. Some historical background, the observations, and modeling investigations of this mechanism are briefly discussed in this review so that the following more detailed papers can be put into context.     

Anthropogenic and natural causes of twentieth century temperature change

We analyse spatio-temporal patterns of near-surface temperature change to provide an attribution of twentieth century climate change. We apply an ``optimal detection' methodology to seasonal and annual data averaged over a range of spatial and temporal scales. We find that solar effects may have contributed significantly to the warming in the first half of the century although this result is dependent on the reconstruction of total solar irradiance that is used. In the latter half of the century, we find that anthropogenic increases in greenhouses gases are largely responsible for the observed warming, balanced by some cooling due to anthropogenic sulphate aerosols, with no evidence for significant solar effects.     

JF-12激波风洞在火星进入环境下的运行特性

火星探测是目前国际深空探测的热点,而火星着陆是火星探测的关键技术之一,火星着陆器发展中面临的一个严峻的挑战是其气动环境远远不同于地球大气的空气。然而,现阶段大多数地面试验设备都是以空气为试验气体来设计的,而不是火星大气的CO₂。本文利用高温热化学反应流动数值计算技术,对JF-12反向爆轰驱动激波风洞在火星进入环境下（主要气体成分是CO₂）的运行特性进行了计算模拟,通过调整激波管中驱动/被驱动气体的初始参数和高/低压段的截面积比,来模拟其中的波系产生、传播过程以及反射激波与接触面的相互作用机制。研究发现,相同情况下驱动CO₂的缝合激波马赫数要明显高于空气,通过减小驱动气体的声速和低压段的直径,可以在驱动CO₂时获得驻室压力稳定的试验气体。     

Solar Forcing of Climate. 2: Evidence from the Past

The nature of the climatic response to solar forcing and its geographical coherence is reviewed. This information is of direct relevance for evaluating solar forcing mechanisms and validating climate models. Interpretation of Sun-climate relationships is hampered by difficulties in (1) translating proxy records into quantitative climate parameters (2) obtaining accurate age assessments (3) elucidating spatial patterns and relationships (4) separating solar forcing from other forcing mechanisms (5) lacking physical understanding of the solar forcing mechanisms. This often limits assessment of past solar forcing of climate to identification of correlations between environmental change and solar variability. The noisy character and often insufficient temporal resolution of proxy records often exclude the detection of high frequency decadal and bi-decadal cycles. However, on multi-decadal and longer time scales, notably the ∼90 years Gleisberg, and ∼200 years Suess cycles in the ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C proxy records of solar activity are also well presented in the environmental proxy records. The additional ∼1500 years Bond cycle may result from interference between centennial-band solar cycles. Proxy evidence for Sun-climate relations is hardly present for Africa, South America and the marine realm; probably more due to a lack of information than a lack of response to solar forcing. At low latitudes, equatorward movement of the ITCZ (upward component of the Hadley cell) occurs upon a decrease in solar activity, explaining humidity changes for (1) Mesoamerica and adjacent North and South American regions and (2) East Africa and the Indian and Chinese Monsoon systems. At middle latitudes equatorward movement of the zonal circulation during solar minima probably (co-)induces wet and cool episodes in Western Europe, and Terra del Fuego as well as humidity changes in Southern Africa, Australia, New Zealand and the Mediterranean. The polar regions seem to expand during solar minima which, at least for the northern hemisphere is evident in southward extension of the Atlantic ice cover. The forcing-induced migration of climate regimes implies that solar forcing induces a non linear response at a given location. This complicates the assessment of Sun-climate relations and calls for nonlinear analysis of multiple long and high resolution records at regional scale. Unfortunately nonlinear Sun-climate analysis is still a largely barren field, despite the fact that major global climate configurations (e.g. the ENSO and AO) follow nonlinear dynamics. The strength of solar forcing relative to other forcings (e.g. volcanism, ocean circulation patterns, tides, and geomagnetism) is another source of dynamic responses. Notably the climatic effects of tides and geomagnetism are hitherto largely enigmatic. Few but well-dated studies suggest almost instantaneous, climatic deteriorations in response to rapid decreases in solar activity. Such early responses put severe limits to the solar forcing mechanisms and the extent of this phenomenon should be a key issue for future Sun-climate studies.     

On the Response of the Climate System to Solar Forcing

The climate response to changes in radiative forcing depends crucially on climate feedback processes, with the consequence that solar and greenhouse gas forcing have both similar response patterns in the troposphere. This circumstance complicates significantly the attribution of the causes of climate change. Additionally, the climate system displays a high level of unforced intrinsic variability, and significant variations in the climate of many parts of the world are due to internal processes. Such internal modes contribute significantly to the variability of climate system on various time scales, and thus compete with external forcing in explaining the origin of past climate extremes. This highlights the need for independent observations of solar forcing including long-term consistent observational records of the total and spectrally resolved solar irradiance. The stratospheric response to solar forcing is different from its response to greenhouse gas forcing, thus suggesting that stratospheric observations could offer the best target for the identification of the specific influence of solar forcing on climate.     

Processes affecting abundances in the solar wind

Data on composition in the solar wind are summarized and compared with best estimates of abundances in the outer convective zone of the Sun. Several mechanisms of element and isotope fractionation are discussed in relation to observed abundances and their variations.The evidence available so far indicates that in addition to ion fractionation in the corona there is a separation mechanism operating at low solar altitude that affects solar wind composition. It is suggested that the systematic depletion of helium observed in the solar wind is in part caused by ion-neutral separation in the chromosphere-transition zone. Conditions for this mechanism to be effective are discussed. It is shown that ion-neutral separation is much more pronounced than ion-ion separation under these conditions. Therefore, this mechanism should fractionate elements according to the rate at which first ionization occurs. This implies that isotope fractionation by this mechanism is minor.Ion-neutral separation may be responsible for the general depletion that is observed in the slow interstream solar wind as well as in the fast streams coming out of coronal holes. However, the occurrences of very low He/H ratios are probably caused in the corona.Paper presented at the IX-th Lindau Workshop The Source Region of the Solar Wind.     

Light elements and their isotopes in SNC meteorites and the Martian atmosphere

Nitrogen isotopes have played an important part in the acceptance of the hypothesis that SNC meteorites derive from Mars. As a result, these meteorites can be investigated for their carbon, sulphur, and hydrogen systematics with a view to learning something about the environmental conditions on the planet. Important aspects of the role of carbon, present in the form of carbon dioxide as an atmospheric gas and leading to the formation of carbonates by weathering or hydrothermal activity, can be established. The presence of indigenous organics is an intriguing possibility. A variety of new or emerging techniques which could improve our understanding of SNC meteorites and might be applied to a returned Martian sample are discussed.     

The Influence of Total Solar Irradiance on Climate

To estimate the effect of the solar variability on the climate, two estimates of the solar intensity variations during the last three centuries have been used as forcing in numerical simulations. The model employed to carry out the experiments was the same coupled global ocean-atmosphere model used in a number of studies to assess the effect of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases on climate. The near surface temperature and the tropospheric temperature distribution shows a clear response to the variability of the solar input. Even the thermohaline circulation reacts on the large amplitudes in the forcing. In the stratosphere, the response pattern is similar as in the observations, however, the 11-year cycle found in the forcing data does not excite an appreciable response. This might be due to the missing parameterisation of the increase in the UV-radiation at the solar cycle maximum and the connected increase of the stratospheric ozone concentration.