Development of Operational Space Weather Prediction Models

In this report, we summarize the needs of space weather models, and recommend that developing operational prediction models, rather than transitioning from research to operation, is a more feasible and critical way for space weather services in the near future. Operational models for solar wind speed, geomagnetic indices, magnetopause, plasma sheet energetic electrons, inner boundary of ion plasma sheet, energetic electrons in outer radiation belt, and thermospheric density at low Earth orbit, have been developed and will be introduced briefly here. Their applications made a big progress in space weather services during the past two years in China.      

Seasonal dependence of TEC and SLAB thickness

Several years of hourly daily GPS measurements of the vertical total electron content (TEC) and of the equivalent slab thickness made at different European locations are analysed by using the linear regression technique to demonstrate the response of these two ionospheric parameters to seasonal variations. It is found that both TEC and slab thickness are highly correlated with season. Analytical relationships are determined expressing the seasonal dependence of the vertical TEC and of the equivalent slab thickness as a function of the seasonal parameter cos χ at noon in each location.     

COST 296 action results for space weather ionospheric monitoring and modelling

COST 296 Action refers to the project on Mitigation of Ionospheric Effects on Radio Systems (MIERS) in the framework of European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST), which is one of the longest-running European instruments supporting cooperation among scientists and researchers across Europe. The main objective of the MIERS project has been to develop an increased knowledge of the effects imposed by the ionosphere on practical radio systems, and for the development and implementation of techniques to mitigate the harmful effects of the ionosphere on such systems. This paper highlights COST 296 Action results that have been achieved during its lifetime period of February 2005–February 2009 with emphasis on space weather ionospheric monitoring and modelling.     

First results of MWC SAS3 electromagnetic wave experiment on board of the Chibis-M satellite

The main goals of the Chibis-M mission are the testing of a new micro-satellite technology, the study of new physical processes related to lightning activity and the verification of possible monitoring techniques of Space Weather phenomena. In frames of the Chibis-M mission an electromagnetic wave complex MWC is installed on board of the satellite composed of electromagnetic sensors and SAS3 measuring unit. The obtained data show that the scientific instrumentation operates properly and produces interesting information. Here we present the first results of the first year of operation of the MWC in the ELF–VLF bands in different operation modes. An important conclusion is that basing on the experience of the first year it is possible to realize an effective and reliable Space Weather monitoring system using micro-satellites and simultaneously operating ground support equipments.     

On the detection of anomalous seismo-ionospheric behavior in the presence of space weather stimuli for large earthquakes

Anomalous behavior of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) prior to earthquake has been observed in many studies. Evidence of such seismo-ionospheric coupling effects suggests that it is plausible to rely on TEC signatures for early earthquake warning. However, the detection of pre-earthquake TEC anomalies (PETA) has not been adopted in practice due to two pertinent issues. Firstly, the effects of space weather activity can affect TEC levels and cause anomalous behavior in the TEC. Usually arbitrary thresholds are set for space weather indices to eliminate TEC anomaly due to space weather effects. Secondly, the choice regarding moving time-window length used to characterise background variation of TEC within the statistical envelope approach has an effect on detection of PETA. While the rule-of-thumb in selecting the moving window length is to have a time window capable of capturing background variability and short-term fluctuations, the length of the time window used in the literature varies with little justification. In this study, a critical examination is conducted on the statistical envelope approach and in particular, to eliminate the effect of space weather activity without the use of arbitrary space indices to detect PETA. A two-part PETA identification procedure is proposed, consisting of wavelet analyses isolating non-earthquake TEC contributions, followed by the statistical envelope method using a moving window length standardized based on observed periodicities and statistical implications is suggested. The approach is tested on a database of 30 large earthquakes (M?≥?7.0). The proposed procedure shows that PETA can be detected prior to earthquakes at higher confidence levels without the need to separately check for space weather activity. More importantly, the procedure was able to detect PETA for studies where it was previously reported that PETA could not be detected or detected convincingly.     

Space Weather Service for Chinese Space Science Satellites

Strategic Priority Research Program on Space Science has gained remarkable achievements. Space Environment Prediction Center (SEPC) affiliated with the National Space Science Center (NSSC) has been providing space weather services and helps secure space missions. Presently, SEPC is capable to offer a variety of space weather services covering many phases of space science missions including planning, design, launch, and orbital operation. The service packages consist of space weather forecasts, warnings, and effect analysis that can be utilized to avoid potential space weather hazard or reduce the damage caused by space storms, space radiation exposure for example. Extensive solar storms that occurred over Chinese Ghost Festival (CGF) in September 2017 led to a large enhancement of the solar energetic particle flux at 1 AU, which affected the near Earth radiation environment and brought great threat to orbiting satellites. Based on the space weather service by SEPC, satellite ground support groups collaborating with the space Tracking, Telemetering and Command system (TT&C) team were able to take immediate measures to react to the CGF solar storm event.     

Effects observed in the ionospheric F-region in the South American sector during the intense geomagnetic storm of 14 December 2006

This investigation presents observations related to the generation of equatorial ionospheric irregularities (also known as equatorial spread F (ESF)) including ionospheric plasma bubbles and dynamic behavior of the ionospheric F-region in the South American sector during an intense geomagnetic storm in December 2006 (a period of low solar activity). In this work, ionospheric sounding observations and GPS data obtained between 13 and 16 December 2006 at several stations in the South American sector are presented. On the geomagnetically disturbed night of 14 and 15 December, ionospheric plasma bubbles were observed after an unusual uplifting of the F-region during pre-reversal enhancement (PRE) period. The unusual uplifting of the F-region during PRE was possibly associated with prompt penetration of electric field of magnetospheric origin. During the geomagnetic disturbance night of 14 and 15 December, strong oscillations due to the propagation of traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) by the Joule heating in the auroral region were observed in the F-region at São José dos Campos (SJC, 23.2°S, 45.9°W; dip latitude 17.6°S), Brazil, and Port Stanley (PST, 51.6°S, 57.9°W; geom. latitude 41.6°S). The VTEC-GPS observations presented on the night of 14 and 15 December 2006 show both positive and negative storm phases in the South American sector, possibly due to changes in the large-scale wind circulation and changes in the O/N₂ ratio in the southern hemisphere, respectively.     

Comparison of model and experimental ionospheric parameters at high latitudes

Modern use and study of the auroral region needs to attract a wider class of models for describing conditions of radio wave propagation in the ionosphere. In this paper the possibilities of the International Reference Ionosphere model, well-proven and widespread in the mid-latitudes, are investigated in the high latitude zone. Model and measured values of the critical frequency foF2 for two mid-latitude stations (Juliusruh and Goosebay) and four high-latitude ones (Loparskaya, Sodankyla, Sondrestrom, Thule) are compared. Deviations of medians, variations from day to day and solar activity trends seemed to be similar for both areas. This similarity is irrespective of the RZ12 index. Special attention is paid to the TEC parameter and its determination using 6 versions of models, a new version of the model IRI2010 (IRI-Plas) among them. It is shown that the IRI-Plas model significantly improves the definition of TEC in contrast to the versions of IRI2007 and the new model NeQuick. The use of the median of the experimental equivalent slab thickness, together with the current values of the TEC, increases by a factor of two the agreement between calculated and measured foF2 values as compared with the variations from day to day. This allows foF2 to be defined in near-real time.     

空间天气模式集成可视化演示软件设计

空间天气模式集成是空间天气预报业务化的基础, 空间天气模式集成可视化演示软件系统是其中重要的研究内容之一. 空间天气模式种类繁多, 要素多样, 模型复杂, 且各模式可视化形式及方法具有差异性. 本文综合当前中国空间天气模式的特点, 构建了一套空间天气模式集成可视化演示系统. 该系统兼容性好、可扩展性高, 能够集成当前中国空间天气中大多数模式. 讨论了空间数据管理方法, 基于Visual C++ 软件平台和OpenGL可视化软件模块,以动态加载方式初步实现了多个空间天气模式的可视化集成.     

An investigation of ionospheric disturbances over South Africa during the magnetic storm on 15 May 2005

The effects of the 15 May 2005 severe geomagnetic storm on the South African ionosphere are studied using ground-based and satellite observations. Ionospheric disturbances have less frequently been investigated over mid-latitude regions. Recently, a number of studies investigated their evolution and generation over these regions. This paper reports on the first investigation of travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) over mid-latitude South Africa. Using global positioning system (GPS)-derived total electron content (TEC) variations from the South African network of dual frequency GPS receivers, we were able to examine the effects of the disturbance on the TEC. During this storm, two TEC enhancements were observed at low- and mid-latitudes: the first enhancement was observed between 30–45°S geomagnetic latitudes associated with equatorward neutral winds and the passage of a TID, while the second TEC enhancement is associated with a second TID. In addition, the F-region critical frequency (foF2) values observed at two ionosonde stations show response features that differ from those of the TEC during the disturbance period. The dissimilarity between the TEC and the foF2 suggests that two competing drivers may have existed, i.e., the westward electric field and equatorward neutral wind effects.     

Symmetry and asymmetry of ionospheric weather at magnetic conjugate points for two midlatitude observatories

Variations of the ionospheric weather W-index for two midlatitude observatories, namely, Grahamstown and Hermanus, and their conjugate counterpart locations in Africa are studied for a period from October 2010 to December 2011. The observatories are located in the longitude sector, which has consistent magnetic equator and geographic equator so that geomagnetic latitudes of the line of force are very close to the corresponding geographic latitudes providing opportunity to ignore the impact of the difference of the gravitational field and the geomagnetic field at the conjugate points on the ionosphere structure and dynamics. The ionosondes of Grahamstown and Hermanus provide data of the critical frequency (foF2), and Global Ionospheric Maps (GIM) provide the total electron content (TECgps) along the magnetic field line up to the conjugate point in the opposite hemisphere. The global model of the ionosphere, International Reference Ionosphere, extended to the plasmasphere altitude of 20,200 km (IRI-Plas) is used to deliver the F2 layer peak parameters from TECgps at the magnetic conjugate area. The evidence is obtained that the electron gas heated by day and cooled by night at the summer hemisphere as compared with the opposite features in the conjugate winter hemisphere testifies on a reversal of plasma fluxes along the magnetic field line by the solar terminator. The ionospheric weather W-index is derived from NmF2 (related with foF2) and TECgps data. It is found that symmetry of W-index behavior in the magnetic conjugate hemispheres is dominant for the equinoxes when plasma movement along the magnetic line of force is imposed on symmetrical background electron density and electron content. Asymmetry of the ionospheric storm effects is observed for solstices when the plasma diffuse down more slowly into the colder winter hemisphere than into the warmer summer hemisphere inducing either plasma increase (positive phase) or decrease (negative phase of W-index) in the ionospheric and plasmaspheric plasma density.     

Development of New Capabilities Using Machine Learning for Space Weather Prediction

With the development of space exploration and space environment measurements, the numerous observations of solar, solar wind, and near Earth space environment have been obtained in last 20 years. The accumulation of multiple data makes it possible to better use machine learning technique, which has achieved unforeseen results in industrial applications in last decades, for developing new approaches and models in space weather investigation and prediction. In this paper, the efforts on the forecasting methods for space weather indices, events, and parameters using machine learning are briefly introduced based on the study works in recent years. These investigations indicate that machine learning, especially deep learning technique can be used in automatic characteristic identification, solar eruption prediction, space weather forecasting for solar and geomagnetic indices, and modeling of space environment parameters.     

A 12 year comparison of MIDAS and IRI 2007 ionospheric Total Electron Content

Data assimilation in conventional meteorological applications uses measurements in conjunction with a physical model. In the case of the ionised region of the upper atmosphere, the ionosphere, assimilation techniques are much less mature. The empirical model known as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) could be used to augment data-sparse regions in an ionospheric now-cast and forecast system. In doing so, it is important that it does not introduce systematic biases to the result. Here, the IRI model is compared to ionospheric observations from the Global Positioning System satellites over Europe and North America. Global Positioning System data are processed into hour-to-hour monthly averages of vertical Total Electron Content using a tomographic technique. A period of twelve years, from January 1998 to December 2009, is analysed in order to capture variations over the whole solar cycle. The study shows that the IRI model underestimates Total Electron Content in the daytime at solar maximum by up to 37% compared to the monthly average of GPS tomographic images, with the greatest differences occurring at the equinox. IRI shows good agreement at other times. Errors in TEC are likely due to peak height and density inaccuracies. IRI is therefore a suitable model for specification of monthly averages of Total Electron Content and can be used to initialise a data assimilation process at times away from solar maximum. It may be necessary to correct for systematic deviations from IRI at solar maximum, and to incorporate error estimation into a data assimilation scheme.     

数据同化在空间天气学中的应用

由太阳活动引起的耀斑和日冕物质抛射等短时间尺度变化的空间天气事件会影响并危害地球磁层、电离层、中高层大气、卫星运行安全以及人类健康,因此对这些空间天气事件的预测显得尤为重要。数据同化在稀疏观测和异步采集的情况下能够增加模型的预测能力,对模型变量进行自洽分析。在数值预报中引入数据同化方法,能够提高预测可信度。本文从数据同化方法的角度出发,主要分析了数据同化目前在大气、电离层、磁层、太阳及其他行星科学研究中的应用,并初步讨论了数据同化未来在空间天气方面的应用。     

The effect of total solar eclipse of October 3, 2005, on the total electron content over Europe

GPS observations from EUREF permanent GPS network were used to observe the response of TEC (Total Electron Content) to the total solar eclipse on October 3, 2005, under quiet geomagnetic conditions of the daytime ionosphere. The effect of the eclipse was detected in diurnal variations and more distinctly in the variations of TEC along individual satellite passes. The trough-like variations with a gradual decrease and followed by an increase of TEC at the time of the eclipse were observed over a large region. The depression of TEC amounted to 3–4 TECU. The maximum depression was observed over all stations located at the maximum path of the solar eclipse. The delay of a minimum level of TEC with respect to the maximum phase of the eclipse was about 20–30 min.     

Overview of the Solar Polar Orbit Telescope Project for Space Weather Mission

The Solar Polar ORbit Telescope (SPORT) project for space weather mission has been under intensive scientific and engineering background studies since it was incorporated into the Chinese Space Science Strategic Pioneer Project in 2011.SPORT is designed to carry a suite of remote-sensing and in-situ instruments to observe Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs),energetic particles,solar high-latitude magnetism,and the fast solar wind from a polar orbit around the Sun. The first extended view of the polar regions of the Sun and the ecliptic enabled by SPORT will provide a unique opportunity to study CME propagation through the inner heliosphere,and the solar high-latitude magnetism giving rise to eruptions and the fast solar wind.Coordinated observations between SPORT and other spaceborne/ground-based facilities within the International Living With a Star (ILWS) framework can significantly enhance scientific output.SPORT is now competing for official selection and implementation during China's 13th Five-Year Plan period of 2016-2020.     

Relative amplitude of the total electron content variations depending on geomagnetic activity

We developed a method of estimation of a relative amplitude dI/I of the total electron content (TEC) variations in the ionosphere as deduced from the data of the global GPS receivers network. To obtain statistically significant results we picked out three latitudinal belts provided in the Internet by the maximum number of GPS sites. They are high-latitudinal belt (50–80°N, 200–300°E; 59 sites), mid latitude belt (20–50°N, 200–300°E; 817 sites), and equatorial belt (±20°N, 0–360°E; 76 sites). The results of the analysis of the diurnal and latitudinal dependencies of dI/I and dI/I distribution probability for 52 days with different levels of geomagnetic activity are presented. It was found that on average the relative amplitude of the TEC variations varies within the range 0–10% proportionally to the value of the K_p geomagnetic index. In quiet conditions the relative amplitude dI/I of the TEC variations at night significantly exceeds the daytime relative amplitude. At high levels of magnetic field disturbances, the geomagnetic control of the amplitude of TEC variations at high and middle latitudes is much more significant than the regular diurnal variations. At the equatorial belt, on average, the amplitude of TEC variations in quiet and disturbed periods almost does not differ. The obtained results may be useful for development of the theory of ionospheric irregularities.     

The GPS measured SITEC caused by the very intense solar flare on July 14, 2000

This work studies the sudden increases in total electron content of the ionosphere caused by the very intense solar flare on July 14, 2000. Total electron content (TEC) data observed from a Global Positioning System (GPS) network are used to calculate the flare-induced TEC increment, δTEC_f, and variation rate, dTEC_f/dt. It is found that both dTEC_f/dt and δTEC_f are closely related with the solar zenith angles. To explain the observation results, we derived a simple relationship between the partial derivative of the flare-induced TEC, ∂TEC_f/∂t, which is a good approximation for dTEC_f/dt, and the solar zenith angle χ, as well as the effective flare radiation flux I_f, according to the well-known Chapman theory of ionization. The derived formula predicted that ∂TEC_f/∂t is proportional to I_f and inverse proportional to Chapman function ch(χ). This theoretical prediction not only explains the correlation of dTEC_f/dt and δTEC_f with χ as shown in our TEC observation, but also gives a way to deduce I_f from TEC observation of GPS network. Thus, the present work shows that GPS observation is a powerful tool in the observation and investigation of solar flare effects on the ionosphere, i.e., the sudden ionospheric disturbances, which is a significant phenomenon of space weather.