空间系绳碎片碰撞生存能力研究

空间系绳结构和几何尺寸对其在复杂空间环境中抵抗碎片碰撞的能力有显著影响.本文根据系绳-碎片碰撞模型和泊松分布,计算了双股系绳和带状系绳被碎片割断的概率,分析了太空碎片对系绳生存能力可能造成的影响.双股系绳是由两条平行系绳每隔一段距离打结连接构成,带状系绳可视为一种横截面为矩形的特殊单股系绳.首先对单股系绳被碎片割断的概率进行建模,然后构建双股系绳和带状系绳生存能力函数,最后根据空间碎片环境模型,对比分析具有不同结构、不同尺寸的系绳的生存能力.仿真结果表明,相较于单股系绳,双股系绳和带状系绳的生存能力有明显提高.      

Modeling of LEO orbital debris populations for ORDEM2008

The NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM2000, is in the process of being updated to a new version: ORDEM2008. The data-driven ORDEM covers a spectrum of object size from 10 μm to greater than 1 m, and ranging from LEO (low Earth orbit) to GEO (geosynchronous orbit) altitude regimes. ORDEM2008 centimeter-sized populations are statistically derived from Haystack and HAX (the Haystack Auxiliary) radar data, while micron-sized populations are estimated from shuttle impact records. Each of the model populations consists of a large number of orbits with specified orbital elements, the number of objects on each orbit (with corresponding uncertainty), and the size, type, and material assignment for each object. This paper describes the general methodology and procedure commonly used in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2008 LEO debris populations. Major steps in the population derivations include data analysis, reference-population construction, definition of model parameters in terms of reference populations, linking model parameters with data, seeking best estimates for the model parameters, uncertainty analysis, and assessment of the outcomes. To demonstrate the population-derivation process and to validate the Bayesian statistical model applied in the population derivations throughout, this paper uses illustrative examples for the special cases of large-size (>1 m, >32 cm, and >10 cm) populations that are tracked by SSN (the Space Surveillance Network) and also monitored by Haystack and HAX radars operating in a staring mode.     

基于驻留时间比的近地空间碎片环境建模

为分析近地空间碎片的分布规律,提出了一种以碎片在空间网格内驻留时间为基础的碎片环境统计建模方法.该方法利用多项式拟合和求根方法统计碎片在空间网格内的停留时间,获取模型基础数据,并据此采用多项式预测、插值和时间序列分析等技术,综合分析空间碎片的分布与演化规律.给出了一个基于双行根数(TLE,Two Line Elements)数据的建模实例,该实例通过了ORDEM2000模型的对比验证,并获得了一些更精细的近地空间碎片环境特征.所得建模方法和分析结论可为长期运行的近地航天器轨道设计、碰撞风险评估及防护等提供技术支撑.     

Practical guidelines for electro-dynamic tethers to survive from orbital debris impacts

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has proposed an active debris removal using electro-dynamic tether to reduce large space debris in the low-Earth orbit. However, a tether strand is thin but long enough to have a large area so that it is vulnerable to small particles. This vulnerability might be the weakest point of a tether system against orbital debris. In order to overcome this weakest point, a double tether system, in which two tether strands are tied together at even intervals to form equally spaced loops, has been suggested as one of the promising candidates. This paper provides a mathematical approach to estimate the survival probability of a double tether system and then apply the approach to evaluate the mission success rate of the active debris removal using electro-dynamic tether that JAXA has proposed. It can be concluded the countermeasure to get enough success rate can be obtained. The result is simulated for Advanced Earth Observing Satellite II (ADEOS-II) re-entry from 800 km sun synchronized orbit to atmosphere. The simulation shows that mission success rate over 90% can be obtained with number of loops over 1000 and 10 mm clearance between two strands.     

The influence of solid rocket motor retro-burns on the space debris environment

The ESA space debris population model MASTER (Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference) considers firings of solid rocket motors (SRM) as a debris source with the associated generation of slag and dust particles. The resulting slag and dust population is a major contribution to the sub-millimetre size debris environment in Earth orbit. The current model version, MASTER-2005, is based on the simulation of 1076 orbital SRM firings which contributed to the long-term debris environment. A comparison of the modelled flux with impact data from returned surfaces shows that the shape and quantity of the modelled SRM dust distribution matches that of recent Hubble Space Telescope (HST) solar array measurements very well. However, the absolute flux level for dust is under-predicted for some of the analysed Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) surfaces. This points into the direction of some past SRM firings not included in the current event database. The most suitable candidates for these firings are the large number of SRM retro-burns of return capsules. Objects released by those firings have highly eccentric orbits with perigees in the lower regions of the atmosphere. Thus, they produce no long-term effect on the debris environment. However, a large number of those firings during the on-orbit time frame of LDEF might lead to an increase of the dust population for some of the LDEF surfaces. In this paper, the influence of SRM retro-burns on the short- and long-term debris environment is analysed. The existing firing database is updated with gathered information of some 800 Russian retro-firings. Each firing is simulated with the MASTER population generation module. The resulting population is compared against the existing background population of SRM slag and dust particles in terms of spatial density and flux predictions.     

基于模糊应力-强度模型的空间系绳碰撞可靠性

空间系绳系统由于其特殊的组成结构日益受到关注,空间系绳的碰撞可靠性研究是系绳任务设计的重要一环.本文采用可靠性分析基本原理中的应力-强度模型,根据近地轨道的空间碎片通量和泊松分布方法,进行空间系绳在轨碰撞可靠性的研究分析.根据对空间系绳碰撞可靠性有影响的系绳结构因素,即单股系绳的直径、长度,双股系绳的绳间距、碰撞角等,...     

Protecting and manoeuvring of spacecraft in space debris environment

The paper gives an overview on the fields of debris research performed at the TUBS. The orbital debris flux of all objects larger than 1cm has been established and simulated by a mathematical model in the past mainly on the basis of simulating explosion fragments. However the flux in the millimeter and submillimeter size range seems to be largely influenced by collisions and their ejecta on high circular or on eccentric orbits. The angular distribution of the impact flux on targets at various altitudes and on various inclinations are presented. This angular distribution has also influence on the surface impact flux on a space station, where also the self shielding has to be considered. Results for the ISS are presented. The risk of impacts of larger not shieldable objects on a space station may become too high, so that collision avoidance manoeuvres must be envisaged, the feasibility of which using onboard detectors is discussed.     

空间碎片自然衰减和太阳活动

分析研究了空间碎片数随太阳辐射流量Ｆ１０．７的变化;给出预报Ｆ１０．７长期变化的计算方法和预测空间碎片数的数学模型。结果显示：①强太阳活动造成空间碎片年增长率下降;②空间碎片数与太阳活动１１年变化密切相关,相关数为０．９;③空间碎片增长率约为发射率的两倍;④若发射率保持不变,则到２０２０年,大于１０ｃｍ的碎片数将达到１４５００;⑤若小碎片的增长为大碎片增长的两倍,则到２０２０年,大于１ｃｍ的碎片数可达１２５０００。     

系绳辅助的行星际轨道捕获研究

针对深空探测中应用动量交换系绳辅助进行行星际轨道捕获时的系绳控制问题,首先对运行在目标行星双曲线飞越轨道上的探测器系统进行动力学建模,给出了一致性轨道捕获条件和系绳最佳切断点,并进行了动力学特性分析。考虑到子探测器捕获后的变轨需求及系绳收放速率的限制,提出了新的最优控制方法,并应用模拟退火算法进行了数值求解。仿真结果表明,系绳切断时指向恰当,子探测器距离目标行星最近,将有利于后续变轨;系绳最大收放速率约为30m/s,切实可行。     

The ratio of hazardous meteoroids to orbital debris in near-Earth space

Orbital debris is known to pose a substantial threat to Earth-orbiting spacecraft at certain altitudes. For instance, the orbital debris flux near Sun-synchronous altitudes of 600–800 km is particularly high due in part to the 2007 Fengyun-1C anti-satellite test and the 2009 Iridium-Kosmos collision. At other altitudes, however, the orbital debris population is minimal and the primary impactor population is not man-made debris particles but naturally occurring meteoroids. While the spacecraft community has some awareness of the risk posed by debris, there is a common misconception that orbital debris impacts dominate the risk at all locations. In this paper, we present a damage-limited comparison between meteoroids and orbital debris near the Earth for a range of orbital altitude and inclination, using NASA’s latest models for each environment. Overall, orbital debris dominates the impact risk between altitudes of 600 and 1300 km, while meteoroids dominate below 270 km and above 4800 km.     

美国几架航天飞机所发生的SEU研究

本文对1991年美国发射的5架不同倾角不同高度的低地球轨道航天飞机所遇到的单粒子翻转事件进行了考查和研究．结果证实在极光区和南大西洋异常区仍可能发生大量单粒子事件,大大地影响到航天器的安全,对此文中给出了一些结论和建议．     

Physical properties and long-term evolution of the debris clouds produced by two catastrophic collisions in Earth orbit

The population of cataloged orbital debris increased by approximately 40% in just a couple of years, from January 2007 to February 2009. This was due to two collisions in space, which involved the catastrophic destruction of three intact satellites (Fengyun 1C, Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33) in high inclination orbits. Both events occurred in the altitude range already most affected by previous launch activity and breakup events, thus boosting the cataloged population in low Earth orbit by more than 60%.     

A simple and valid analysis method for orbit anomaly detection

A simple analysis method for orbit anomaly detection, called semi-major axis change method (SACM) was presented by using a relationship between the change of orbit parameters and velocity increments. In this method, the mean value and standard deviation of the semi-major axis change in different time intervals were first calculated according to historical data. Then, these two parameters, the mean value and standard deviation of the semi-major axis change, are chosen as basis variables and combined as an anomalous criterion. For orbit objects with different characteristic, anomalous thresholds were given in different time intervals for identifying the anomalies of the orbital objects. Finally, this method is used for low earth orbit (LEO) satellites and American–Russian breakup debris. By adopting this method, the characteristics of the orbit change were given. The accuracy rate of anomaly analysis for LEO satellites and American–Russian breakup debris can reach to 100%, which demonstrates that the method was rapid and valid.     

基于GNSS的高轨卫星定位技术研究

利用全球卫星导航系统(GNSS)进行导航定位具有全球、全天候、实时和高精度的优点,应用于高地球轨道(HEO)卫星的定位,能够提供精确的轨道和姿态确定,并且可以克服目前主要利用地面测控系统对HEO卫星进行定位的设备复杂、投资高等缺点,使得自主导航成为可能.本文对利用GNSS的高轨卫星定位相关技术进行了研究,分析了单一GNSS系统和多个GNSS组合系统的卫星可见性、动态性和几何精度因子(GDOP).通过仿真分析表明,利用组合GNSS系统并通过提高GNSS接收机灵敏度的方法,可以解决GNSS进行HEO卫星定位的相关问题,并能保证HEO卫星定位精度的要求.      

GRAS radio occultation on-board of Metop

The GRAS radio occultation instrument is flying on Metop-A and belongs to the EPS (EUMETSAT Polar System). GRAS observes GPS satellites in occultation. Within this work, validation of GRAS closed-loop bending angle data against co-located ECMWF profiles extracted from model fields and occultations from the COSMIC constellation of radio occultation instruments is shown. Results confirm the high data quality and robustness, where GRAS shows lower bending angle noise against ECMWF than COSMIC and in terms of occultations per day, one GRAS ≈ two COSMIC satellites. This is partly due to the operational setup of EPS. For the investigation we focus on two observation periods where updates in the ECMWF (March 2009) and COSMIC processing (October 2009) have improved the statistics further. Bending angles biases agree to within 0.5% against ECMWF and to within 0.1% against COSMIC after the updates for altitudes between 8 and 40 km. In addition, we also analyze the impact of the Metop orbit processing on the derived GRAS bending angle data, where different GPS and Metop orbit solutions are analyzed. Results show that a batch based orbit processing would improve in particular the bending angle bias behavior at higher altitudes. Requirements for the operational processing of GRAS data are briefly outlined, options to ease the use of other positioning system satellites in the near future are discussed. A simplified analysis on the observation of several of these systems, e.g. GPS and Galileo, from one platform shows that about 16% of occultations are found within 300 km, ±3 h, thus providing similar information. A constellation of 2 GRAS like instruments would have only about 10% close-by.     

利用TLE数据分析LEO卫星轨道异常的新方法——————综合判据法

及时准确地发现在轨卫星的轨道异常意义重大. 通过有效的异常算法, 能够找出发生轨道异常的碎片或航天器, 为空间碎片碰撞预警系统分析和验证碰撞事件提供数据支持. 通过对利用TLE (Two Line Elements)数据分析LEO在轨卫星轨道异常的方法研究, 提出了一个利用单个卫星相邻根数时间差控制加综合判据的判别方法. 分析表明, 相对于取单一因素阈值的判别方法, 综合判据法能够最大限度地减少漏判, 并且保持相对较高的判断准确率.      

低轨导航增强卫星星座设计

针对目前全球低轨卫星快速发展的现状,对低轨导航增强卫星星座设计方法进行了详细的研究。首先推导了轨道高度与可视球冠的关系,结合太空垃圾分布,从覆盖范围、经济性及碰撞风险几方面联合确定了轨道高度。然后推导了用户仰角与轨道倾角的关系,分析了实现南北极点覆盖的轨道倾角。接着结合铱星星座,推导出单一星座构型无法实现全球范围内均匀的可见星和精度衰减因子（Dilution of Precision,DOP）值分布。最后提出了一种组合低轨卫星星座设计方法。结果表明,该方法设计的组合星座在实现全球覆盖的同时,能够实现可见星数量与DOP值在全球范围内的均匀分布。     

Disposal orbits for GEO spacecraft: A method for evaluating the orbit height distributions resulting from implementing IADC guidelines

Geostationary orbit (GEO) is the most commercially valuable Earth orbit. The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) has produced guidelines to help protect this region from space debris. The guidelines propose moving a satellite at the end of its operational life to a disposal orbit, which is designed so that satellites left there will not infringe the operational GEO region within a period of at least 100 yr.     

Cosmic ray exposure factors for Shuttle altitudes derived from calculated cut-off rigidities.

The allowed cosmic radiation flux accessible to an earth-orbiting spacecraft is a complex function of the satellite position and the geomagnetic cutoff characteristics at each zenith and azimuth angle at each position. We have determined cosmic ray exposure factors for the galactic cosmic ray spectrum for typical shuttle altitudes and inclinations up to 50 degrees. We have utilized d world grid of trajectory-derived cutoff rigidity calculations at 400 km altitude to determine geomagnetic transmission functions that permit a simple and direct calculation of the allowed cosmic ray spectrum to a 400 km satellite orbit. If the interplanetary cosmic ray spectrum is multiplied by the orbit-averaged geomagnetic transmission function the result is the allowed cosmic ray spectrum at the spacecraft.     

Characterization of the cataloged Fengyun-1C fragments and their long-term effect on the LEO environment

The intentional breakup of Fengyun-1C on 11 January 2007 created the most severe orbital debris cloud in history. The altitude where the event occurred was probably the worst location for a major breakup in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region, since it was already highly populated with operational satellites and debris generated from previous breakups. The addition of so many fragments not only poses a realistic threat to operational satellites in the region, but also increases the instability (i.e., collision cascade effect) of the debris population there.