Towards a GPS-based TEC prediction model for Southern Africa with feed forward networks

In this paper, first results from a national Global Positioning System (GPS) based total electron content (TEC) prediction model over South Africa are presented. Data for 10 GPS receiver stations distributed through out the country were used to train a feed forward neural network (NN) over an interval of at most five years. In the NN training, validating and testing processes, five factors which are well known to influence TEC variability namely diurnal variation, seasonal variation, magnetic activity, solar activity and the geographic position of the GPS receivers were included in the NN model. The database consisted of 1-min data and therefore the NN model developed can be used to forecast TEC values 1 min in advance. Results from the NN national model (NM) were compared with hourly TEC values generated by the earlier developed NN single station models (SSMs) at Sutherland (32.38°S, 20.81°E) and Springbok (29.67°S, 17.88°E), to predict TEC variations over the Cape Town (33.95°S, 18.47°E) and Upington (28.41°S, 21.26°E) stations, respectively, during equinoxes and solstices. This revealed that, on average, the NM led to an improvement in TEC prediction accuracy compared to the SSMs for the considered testing periods.     

Application of neural networks to South African GPS TEC modelling

The propagation of radio signals in the Earth’s atmosphere is dominantly affected by the ionosphere due to its dispersive nature. Global Positioning System (GPS) data provides relevant information that leads to the derivation of total electron content (TEC) which can be considered as the ionosphere’s measure of ionisation. This paper presents part of a feasibility study for the development of a Neural Network (NN) based model for the prediction of South African GPS derived TEC. The South African GPS receiver network is operated and maintained by the Chief Directorate Surveys and Mapping (CDSM) in Cape Town, South Africa. Vertical total electron content (VTEC) was calculated for four GPS receiver stations using the Adjusted Spherical Harmonic (ASHA) model. Factors that influence TEC were then identified and used to derive input parameters for the NN. The well established factors used are seasonal variation, diurnal variation, solar activity and magnetic activity. Comparison of diurnal predicted TEC values from both the NN model and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2001) with GPS TEC revealed that the IRI provides more accurate predictions than the NN model during the spring equinoxes. However, on average the NN model predicts GPS TEC more accurately than the IRI model over the GPS locations considered within South Africa.     

First results of operational ionospheric dynamics prediction for the Brazilian Space Weather program

It is shown the development and preliminary results of operational ionosphere dynamics prediction system for the Brazilian Space Weather program. The system is based on the Sheffield University Plasmasphere–Ionosphere Model (SUPIM), a physics-based model computer code describing the distribution of ionization within the Earth mid to equatorial latitude ionosphere and plasmasphere, during geomagnetically quiet periods. The model outputs are given in a 2-dimensional plane aligned with Earth magnetic field lines, with fixed magnetic longitude coordinate. The code was adapted to provide the output in geographical coordinates. It was made referring to the Earth’s magnetic field as an eccentric dipole, using the approximation based on International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF-11). During the system operation, several simulation runs are performed at different longitudes. The original code would not be able to run all simulations serially in reasonable time. So, a parallel version for the code was developed for enhancing the performance. After preliminary tests, it was frequently observed code instability, when negative ion temperatures or concentrations prevented the code from continuing its processing. After a detailed analysis, it was verified that most of these problems occurred due to concentration estimation of simulation points located at high altitudes, typically over 4000 km of altitude. In order to force convergence, an artificial exponential decay for ion–neutral collisional frequency was used above mentioned altitudes. This approach shown no significant difference from original code output, but improved substantially the code stability. In order to make operational system even more stable, the initial altitude and initial ion concentration values used on exponential decay equation are changed when convergence is not achieved, within pre-defined values. When all code runs end, the longitude of every point is then compared with its original reference station longitude, and differences are compensated by changing the simulation point time slot, in a temporal adjustment optimization. Then, an approximate neighbor searching technique was developed to obtain the ion concentration values in a regularly spaced grid, using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. A 3D grid containing ion and electron concentrations is generated for every hour of simulated day. Its spatial resolution is 1° of latitude per 1° of longitude per 10 km of altitude. The vertical total electron content (VTEC) is calculated from the grid, and plotted in a geographic map. An important feature that was implemented in the system is the capacity of combining observational data and simulation outputs to obtain more appropriate initial conditions to the ionosphere prediction. Newtonian relaxation method was used for this data assimilation process, where ionosonde data from four different locations in South America was used to improve the system accuracy. The whole process runs every day and predicts the VTEC values for South America region with almost 24 h ahead.     

Performance evaluation of IRI-2007 at equatorial latitudes and its Matlab version for GNSS applications

International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model is the widely used empirical model for ionospheric predictions, especially TEC which is an important parameter for radio navigation and communication. The Fortran based IRI-2007 does not support real-time interactive visualization and debugging. Therefore, the source code is converted into Matlab and is validated for the purposes of this study. This facilitates easy representation of results and for near real-time implementation of IRI in the applications including spacecraft launching, now casting, pseudolite based navigation systems etc. In addition, the vertical delay results over the equatorial region derived from IRI and GPS data of three IGS stations namely Libreville (Garbon, Africa), Brasilia (Brazil, South America) and Hyderabad (India, Asia) are compared. As the IRI model does not account for plasmasphere TEC, the vertical delays are underestimated compared to vertical delays of GPS signals. Therefore, the model should be modified accordingly for precise TEC estimation.     

Using cross-correlation techniques to assess the validity of AP8 at low altitude

Background effects, such as single event upsets, are used as proxy data sets to evaluate AP8 at low altitude. The approach is to use a 2-D (longitude and latitude) cross-correlation between the background data set and the current-epoch AP8 predicted fluxes. The technique can be used to determine the energy of the particle that is producing a particular effect. This cross-correlation technique shows that using AP8 with a present-epoch magnetic field model accurately predicts the present location of the South Atlantic Anomaly proton flux enhancement and that a dual-peaked intensity structure above 100 MeV in the model is an artifact of AP8 and its interpolation routines.     

An improved altimeter-derived gravity anomaly from shipborne gravity based on the mean sea surface height constraint factors method

Coastal marine gravity modeling faces challenges due to the degradation of the quality and poor coverage of altimeter data in coastal regions. The effective fusion of shipborne gravity data and altimeter-derived marine gravity data can make shipborne gravity data more useful for the accurate estimation of altimeter-derived coastal marine gravity. A mean sea surface height constraint factor (MSSHCF) method based on the ordinary kriging method and the remove-restore technique is proposed to fuse altimeter-derived gravity model with shipborne gravity data. In this method, all data are standardized during the interpolation process to reduce the error and mean sea surface as a vertical variable is added to the semi-variance function in ordinary kriging to obtain the residual shipborne gravity as corrected data source. The coastal marine gravity models V2.1 and V3.1 which fused altimeter-derived gravity data with shipborne gravity data and V1.1 without shipborne gravity data at a spatial resolution of 1′×1′ can be obtained. Validation experiments show that the accuracy of the gravity model V3.1 obtained by the MSSHCF method more closely agrees with the validated gravity model DTU17 and SS V31 than the model V2.1 obtained by the ordinary kriging interpolation method and the V1.1 model. Our results were validated against shipborne gravity data; the accuracy of model V3.1 was 4.95 % higher than the model V1.1 in South China Sea area A and 2.48 % higher in South China Sea area B. Meanwhile, the accuracy of model V3.1 was 2.07 % higher than model V2.1 in South China Sea area A and 2.42 % higher in South China Sea area B. The effects of distance from the coast and sea depth on the marine gravity model were also evaluated. The results show that the gravity model V3.1 has higher accuracy with the change in ocean distance and depth than the V2.1 and V1.1 gravity models. Thus, our study shows that the MSSHCF method effectively refines coastal altimeter-derived gravity using shipborne gravity data.     

Validation of University of New Brunswick Ionospheric Modeling Technique with ionosonde TEC estimation over South Africa

For more than a decade, ionospheric research over South Africa has been carried out using data from ionosondes geographically located at Madimbo (28.38°S, 30.88°E), Grahamstown (33.32°S, 26.50°E), and Louisvale (28.51°S, 21.24°E). The objective has been modelling the bottomside ionospheric characteristics using neural networks. The use of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data is described as a new technique to monitor the dynamics and variations of the ionosphere over South Africa, with possible future application in high frequency radio communication. For this task, the University of New Brunswick Ionospheric Modelling Technique (UNB-IMT) was applied to compute midday (10:00 UT) GNSS-derived total electron content (GTEC). GTEC values were computed using GNSS data for stations located near ionosondes for the years 2002 and 2005 near solar maximum and minimum, respectively. The GTEC was compared with the midday ionosonde-derived TEC (ITEC) measurements to validate the UNB-IMT results. It was found that the variation trends of GTEC and ITEC over all stations are in good agreement and show a pronounced seasonal variation for the period near solar maximum, with maximum values (∼80 TECU) around autumn and spring equinoxes, and minimum values (∼22 TECU) around winter and summer. Furthermore, the residual ΔTEC = GTEC − ITEC was computed. It was evident that ΔTEC, which is believed to correspond to plasmaspheric electron content, showed a pronounced seasonal variation with maximum values (∼20 TECU) around equinoxes and minimum (∼5 TECU) around winter near solar maximum. The equivalent ionospheric and total slab thicknesses were also computed and comprehensively discussed. The results verified the use of UNB-IMT as one of the tools for future ionospheric TEC research over South Africa.     

Performance evaluation of some rain rate conversion models for microwave propagation studies

An important characteristic of rainfall levels at a particular place is the statistical distribution of rainfall rate. In this paper, 5-min integration time rainfall data for the Northcentral region of Nigeria was obtained from the Tropospheric Data Acquisition Network (TRODAN), Anyigba, Nigeria. Also, 1-min integration time rainfall was measured at Minna, Nigeria. In order to obtain the optimal rain rate model suitable for this region, two globally recognised rain rate models were critically evaluated and compared with the 1-min measurements. These are the ITU-R P.837-7 and Lavergnat-Gole (L-G) models. The results obtained showed that the ITU-R P.837-7 and L-G models respectively underestimated the measured rain rate by 7.3 mm/h and 9 mm/h at time percentage exceedance of 0.1%, while they underestimated the measured rain rate by 23.4 mm/h and 13 mm/h respectively at 0.01%. At 0.001%, the measured rain rate was overestimated by the ITU-R P.837-7 and L-G models by 27.4 mm/h and 3 mm/h respectively. Further performance evaluation of the predefined models was carried out using different error metrics such as sum of absolute error (SAE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), standard deviation (STDEV) and Spearman’s rank correlation. The results obtained adjudged the Lavergnat-Gole model as the best rain rate prediction model for this region.     

一种基于联想记忆系统实现图像压缩的新方法

针对传统神经网络用于图像压缩时存在的训练时间长、泛化能力弱等问题,提出一种基于联想记忆型神经网络的图像压缩新方法.利用牛顿前向插值多项式构建联想记忆系统,对图像数据进行建模.首先将图像数据分为多个数据块,然后利用数据块对联想记忆系统进行训练,训练结束后得到该数据块的特征数据,特征数据的数量小于原始数据块,且数值大多在零附近.最后对所有数据块的特征数据重新排序,进行熵编码,从而实现图像数据的压缩.实验结果表明该方法是可行的和有效的,相比传统神经网络,联想记忆系统无需预先训练,不依赖训练集数据和初始值,可以实时编码.      

All-sky-imaging capabilities for ionospheric space weather research using geomagnetic conjugate point observing sites

Optical signatures of ionospheric disturbances exist at all latitudes on Earth—the most well known case being visible aurora at high latitudes. Sub-visual emissions occur equatorward of the auroral zones that also indicate periods and locations of severe Space Weather effects. These fall into three magnetic latitude domains in each hemisphere: (1) sub-auroral latitudes ～40–60°, (2) mid-latitudes (20–40°) and (3) equatorial-to-low latitudes (0–20°).Boston University has established a network of all-sky-imagers (ASIs) with sites at opposite ends of the same geomagnetic field lines in each hemisphere—called geomagnetic conjugate points. Our ASIs are autonomous instruments that operate in mini-observatories situated at four conjugate pairs in North and South America, plus one pair linking Europe and South Africa. In this paper, we describe instrument design, data-taking protocols, data transfer and archiving issues, image processing, science objectives and early results for each latitude domain. This unique capability addresses how a single source of disturbance is transformed into similar or different effects based on the unique “receptor” conditions (seasonal effects) found in each hemisphere. Applying optical conjugate point observations to Space Weather problems offers a new diagnostic approach for understanding the global system response functions operating in the Earth’s upper atmosphere.     

Statistical characterisation of spread F over South Africa

The occurrence of mid-latitude spread F (SF) over South Africa has not been extensively studied since the installation of the DPS-4 digisondes in 1996 and 2000 at Grahamstown (33.32 °S, 26.50 °E) and Madimbo (22.38 °S, 30.88 °E) respectively. This study is intended to quantify the probability of occurrence of F region disturbances associated with SF over South Africa. A study was conducted using data for 8 years (2001–2008) over Madimbo (with a time resolution of 30 min) and Grahamstown (with a variable time resolution of 15 and 30 min). In this study, SF has been classified into frequency SF (FSF), range SF (RSF) and mixed SF (MSF). The SF events were identified by manually identifying ionograms showing SF and tabulating them according to type for further statistical analysis. The results show that the diurnal pattern of SF peaks strongly between 01:00 and 02:00 local time, LT (LT = UT + 2 h), where UT is the universal time. This pattern is true for all seasons and types of SF at Madimbo and Grahamstown in 2001 and 2005, except for RSF which had peaks during autumn and spring in 2001 at Madimbo. The probability of both MSF and FSF tends to increase with decreasing solar activity, with a peak in 2005 (a moderate solar activity period). The seasonal peaks of MSF and FSF are more frequent during winter months at both Madimbo and Grahamstown. In this study, SF was evident in ∼0.03% and ∼0.06% of the available ionograms at Madimbo and Grahamstown respectively during the 8 years.     

An investigation of ionospheric disturbances over South Africa during the magnetic storm on 15 May 2005

The effects of the 15 May 2005 severe geomagnetic storm on the South African ionosphere are studied using ground-based and satellite observations. Ionospheric disturbances have less frequently been investigated over mid-latitude regions. Recently, a number of studies investigated their evolution and generation over these regions. This paper reports on the first investigation of travelling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) over mid-latitude South Africa. Using global positioning system (GPS)-derived total electron content (TEC) variations from the South African network of dual frequency GPS receivers, we were able to examine the effects of the disturbance on the TEC. During this storm, two TEC enhancements were observed at low- and mid-latitudes: the first enhancement was observed between 30–45°S geomagnetic latitudes associated with equatorward neutral winds and the passage of a TID, while the second TEC enhancement is associated with a second TID. In addition, the F-region critical frequency (foF2) values observed at two ionosonde stations show response features that differ from those of the TEC during the disturbance period. The dissimilarity between the TEC and the foF2 suggests that two competing drivers may have existed, i.e., the westward electric field and equatorward neutral wind effects.     

插补前S加减速在CNC前瞻中的应用

计算机数字控制系统(CNC)中的速度前瞻处理可以在不影响插补轨迹精度的前提下极大地提高插补效率.针对前瞻算法中速度处理这一核心问题,分直线转接和圆弧转接2种情况分别建立了插补几何元素转接矢量夹角模型,并给出了一种基于插补前S型加减速的CNC速度前瞻算法.该算法根据设定的最大前瞻段数以及实际插补轨迹的几何特性,能够自适应确定轨迹的转接速度近似最优解,从而实现路径段之间进给速度的高速衔接.S型加减速由于在加速阶段和减速阶段均引入了加速度衰减,使得整个插补过程具有了高度的柔性.因此结合前瞻算法和S型加减速算法在高速加工时速度处理的优势,提出并实现了一种基于插补前S型加减速的CNC前瞻算法.该算法已经在工程实际中得到了验证.      

South American regional ionospheric maps computed by GESA: A pilot service in the framework of SIRGAS

SIRGAS (Geocentric Reference Frame for the Americas) is an international enterprise of the geodetic community that aims to realize the Terrestrial Reference Frame in the America’s countries. In order to fulfill this commitment, SIRGAS manages a network of continuously operational GNSS receivers totalling around one hundred sites in the Caribbean, Central, and South American region. Although the network was not planed for ionospheric studies, its potential to be used for such a purpose was recently recognized and SIRGAS started a pilot experiment devoted to establish a regular service for computing and releasing regional vertical TEC (vTEC) maps based on GNSS data. Since July, 2005, the GESA (Geodesia Espacial y Aeronomía) laboratory belonging to the Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas of the Universidad Nacional de La Plata computes hourly maps of vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC) in the framework of the SIRGAS pilot experiment. These maps exploit all the GNSS data available in the South American region and are computed with the LPIM (La Plata Ionospheric Model). LPIM implements a de-biasing procedure that improves data calibration in relation to other procedures commonly used for such purposes. After calibration, slant TEC measurements are converted to vertical and mapped using local-time and modip latitude. The use of modip latitude smoothed the spatial variability of vTEC, especially in the South American low latitude region and hence allows for a better vTEC interpolation. This contribution summarizes the results obtained by GESA in the framework of the SIRGAS pilot experiment.     

Variations in the ionospheric scale height parameter at the F2 peak over Grahamstown,South Africa

The Grahamstown, South Africa (33.3°S, 26.5°E) ionospheric field station operates a Lowell digital pulse ionospheric sounder (Digisonde) whose output includes scaled parameters derived from the measured ionogram. One of these output parameters is the ionospheric scale height parameter (H), and this paper presents an analysis of the seasonal, diurnal, and solar activity variations of this parameter over the Grahamstown station. Ionosonde data from three years 2002, 2003, and 2004 were used in this study. The data was subjected to a general trend analysis to remove any outliers and then the monthly median data were used to explore the different variations. The results of this analysis were found to be similar to what has already been presented in the literature for low latitude stations, and are presented as well as the correlation at this mid-latitude station between the H parameter, the IRI shape parameter (B0), and the peak electron density (NmF2).     

具有初始动量的空间机械臂零反作用轨迹跟踪

对具有初始动量的自由漂浮空间机械臂系统进行了研究,考虑其执行在轨任务时便已经具有的动量,根据系统的构型参数建立运动学模型,再采用拉格朗日第二类方程建立动力学模型。利用空间机械臂系统具有冗余自由度这一特性,推导运动学和动力学方程,得到了零反作用运动方程,消除了基座和机械臂之间的角速度耦合作用。末端运动轨迹用多项式插值函数来逼近,根据给定的机械臂末端初始和终止状态来规划其运动轨迹,并将机械臂末端的工作空间转换到关节空间中。根据已知的动力学模型,设计合适的比例-微分（PD）控制率。仿真结果表明,通过选择合适的增益反馈矩阵,机械臂末端能平稳地跟踪目标轨迹,同时,机械臂的运动不会对基座的姿态产生扰动,保证了基座姿态的稳定性及航天器的正常运行。     

A 12 year comparison of MIDAS and IRI 2007 ionospheric Total Electron Content

Data assimilation in conventional meteorological applications uses measurements in conjunction with a physical model. In the case of the ionised region of the upper atmosphere, the ionosphere, assimilation techniques are much less mature. The empirical model known as the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) could be used to augment data-sparse regions in an ionospheric now-cast and forecast system. In doing so, it is important that it does not introduce systematic biases to the result. Here, the IRI model is compared to ionospheric observations from the Global Positioning System satellites over Europe and North America. Global Positioning System data are processed into hour-to-hour monthly averages of vertical Total Electron Content using a tomographic technique. A period of twelve years, from January 1998 to December 2009, is analysed in order to capture variations over the whole solar cycle. The study shows that the IRI model underestimates Total Electron Content in the daytime at solar maximum by up to 37% compared to the monthly average of GPS tomographic images, with the greatest differences occurring at the equinox. IRI shows good agreement at other times. Errors in TEC are likely due to peak height and density inaccuracies. IRI is therefore a suitable model for specification of monthly averages of Total Electron Content and can be used to initialise a data assimilation process at times away from solar maximum. It may be necessary to correct for systematic deviations from IRI at solar maximum, and to incorporate error estimation into a data assimilation scheme.     

FC-AE-1553网络的“并发交换式”动态带宽调度机制

为提高航天航空网络传输性能,针对低轨空间舱内有效载荷系统的特点及有效载荷系统数据传输的要求,将空间有效载荷系统的数据分为周期性业务、突发性业务及强时效性业务3种业务类型,并综合分析3种业务特征,提出了一种可应用于FC-AE-1553网络的“并发交换式”动态带宽调度（DBA）机制,即突发性业务传输采用“并发交换式”的动态带宽分配,周期性业务采用静态固定带宽分配,强时效性业务采用抢占式带宽分配的方案。采用理论分析和仿真验证的方式分析了该调度机制的可行性,并通过OPNET仿真软件建立了FC-AE-1553网络仿真平台。结果表明,相比FC-AE-1553网络传统的“总线式”调度机制,所提机制可将FC-AE-1553网络的吞吐量提高10倍以上,且当网络节点数为32时,FC-AE-1553网络的吞吐量可从2.8 Gb/s提高到46 Gb/s,突发性业务的平均时延可降低1个数量级。      

NeQuick G model based scale factor determination for using SBAS ionosphere corrections at low earth orbit

A space-based augmentation system (SBAS) provides real-time correction data for global navigation satellite system (GNSS) users near ground. In order to use the SBAS ionosphere correction for low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites, the correction should be scaled down for the LEO altitude. This scale factor varies with ionosphere distribution and it is hard to determine the value at LEO in real time. We propose a real-time scale factor determination method by using Galileo GNSS’s NeQuick G model. A LEO satellite GPS data and SBAS data received on ground were used to evaluate the performance of the NeQuick G derived variable scale factor. The NeQuick G derived scale factor shows a significant accuracy improvement over NeQuick G model or pre-determined constant scale factor. It improves a vertical positioning accuracy of the LEO satellite. The error mean reductions of the vertical positioning over NeQuick G and the constant scale factor are 31.5% and 11.7%, respectively.     

基于BP神经网络的飞行绩效评价模型

为实现飞行绩效的客观评价,利用眼动数据,建立了拓扑结构为6-14-3型的BP(Back Propagation)神经网络模型.已有的实验数据和随机插值法得到的数据作为建模的数据来源,数据分为训练集和测试集并归一化.基于Matlab的神经网络工具箱,利用经验公式和实验比较法确定了BP网络模型的隐含层节点数;对BP算法的各种改进算法进行了优化选择;将训练集数据和测试集数据先后输入网络模型进行学习训练和仿真测试;对3个技术水平的飞行员的飞行绩效进行了预测和评价.研究表明,眼动数据的BP神经网络模型可以较为准确地评价飞行绩效,评价方法可以为飞行训练提供参考.