Turbulence,complexity, and solar flares

The issue of predicting solar flares is one of the most fundamental in physics, addressing issues of plasma physics, high-energy physics, and modelling of complex systems. It also poses societal consequences, with our ever-increasing need for accurate space weather forecasts. Solar flares arise naturally as a competition between an input (flux emergence and rearrangement) in the photosphere and an output (electrical current build up and resistive dissipation) in the corona. Although initially localised, this redistribution affects neighbouring regions and an avalanche occurs resulting in large scale eruptions of plasma, particles, and magnetic field. As flares are powered from the stressed field rooted in the photosphere, a study of the photospheric magnetic complexity can be used to both predict activity and understand the physics of the magnetic field. The magnetic energy spectrum and multifractal spectrum are highlighted as two possible approaches to this.     

Sensing the Earth’s low ionosphere during solar flares using VLF signals and goes solar X-ray data

An analysis of D-region electron density height profile variations, induced by four isolated solar X-ray flares during period from September 2005 to December 2006, based on the amplitude and the phase delay perturbation of 22.1 kHz signal trace from Skelton (54.72 N, 2.88 W) to Belgrade (44.85 N, 20.38 E), coded GQD, was carried out. Solar flare data were taken from NOAA GOES12 satellite one-minute listings. For VLF data acquisition and recordings at the Institute of Physics, Belgrade, Serbia, the AbsPAL system was used. Starting from LWPCv21 code (Ferguson, 1998), the variations of the Earth-ionosphere waveguide characteristic parameters, sharpness and reflection height, were estimated during the flare conditions. It was found that solar flare events affected the VLF wave propagation in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide by changing the lower ionosphere electron density height profile, in a different way, for different solar flare events.     

Response of the mid-latitude D-region ionosphere to the total solar eclipse of 22 July 2009 studied using VLF signals in South Korean peninsula

In this paper, we analyze VLF signals received at Busan to study the the D-region changes linked with the solar eclipse event of 22 July 2009 for very short (∼390 km) transmitter–receiver great circle path (TRGCP) during local noon time 00:36–03:13 UT (09:36–12:13 KST). The eclipse crossed south of Busan with a maximum obscuration of ∼84%. Observations clearly show a reduction of ∼6.2 dB in the VLF signal strength at the time of maximum solar obscuration (84% at 01:53 UT) as compared to those observed on the control days. Estimated values of change in Wait ionospheric parameters: reflection height (h′) in km and inverse scale height parameter (β) in km⁻¹ from Long Wave Propagation Capability (LWPC) model during the maximum eclipse phase as compared to unperturbed ionosphere are 7 km and 0.055 km⁻¹, respectively. Moreover, the D-region electron density estimated from model computation shows 95% depletion in electron density at the height of ∼71 km. The reflection height is found to increase by ∼7 km in the D-region during the eclipse as compared to those on the control days, implying a depletion in the Lyman-α flux by a factor of ∼7. The present observations are discussed in the light of current understanding on the solar eclipse induced D-region dynamics.     

New flare model using recent measurements of the solar ultraviolet irradiance

The solar photon output from the Sun, which was once thought to be constant, varies considerably over time scales from seconds during solar flares to years due to the solar cycle. This is especially true in the wavelengths shorter than 190 nm. These variations cause significant deviations in the Earth and space environment on similar time scales, which then affects many things including satellite drag, radio communications, atmospheric densities and composition of particular atoms, molecules, and ions of Earth and other planets, as well as the accuracy in the Global Positioning System (GPS). The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model that estimates the solar irradiance at wavelengths from 0.1 to 190 nm at 1 nm resolution with a time cadence of 60 s. This is a high enough temporal resolution to model variations due to solar flares, for which few accurate measurements at these wavelengths exist. This model also captures variations on the longer time scales of solar rotation (days) and solar cycle (years). Daily average proxies used are the 0–4 nm irradiance, the Mg II c/w, F10.7, as well as the 1 nm bins centered at 30.5 nm, 121.5 (Lyman Alpha), and 36.5 nm. The GOES 0.1–0.8 nm irradiance is used as the flare proxy. The FISM algorithms are given, and results and comparisons are shown that demonstrate the FISM estimations agree within the stated uncertainties to the various measurements of the solar Vacuum Ultraviolet (VUV) irradiance.     

The GPS measured SITEC caused by the very intense solar flare on July 14, 2000

This work studies the sudden increases in total electron content of the ionosphere caused by the very intense solar flare on July 14, 2000. Total electron content (TEC) data observed from a Global Positioning System (GPS) network are used to calculate the flare-induced TEC increment, δTEC_f, and variation rate, dTEC_f/dt. It is found that both dTEC_f/dt and δTEC_f are closely related with the solar zenith angles. To explain the observation results, we derived a simple relationship between the partial derivative of the flare-induced TEC, ∂TEC_f/∂t, which is a good approximation for dTEC_f/dt, and the solar zenith angle χ, as well as the effective flare radiation flux I_f, according to the well-known Chapman theory of ionization. The derived formula predicted that ∂TEC_f/∂t is proportional to I_f and inverse proportional to Chapman function ch(χ). This theoretical prediction not only explains the correlation of dTEC_f/dt and δTEC_f with χ as shown in our TEC observation, but also gives a way to deduce I_f from TEC observation of GPS network. Thus, the present work shows that GPS observation is a powerful tool in the observation and investigation of solar flare effects on the ionosphere, i.e., the sudden ionospheric disturbances, which is a significant phenomenon of space weather.     

Distributing space weather monitoring instruments and educational materials worldwide for IHY 2007: The AWESOME and SID project

The International Heliophysical Year (IHY) aims to advance our understanding of the fundamental processes that govern the Sun, Earth, and heliosphere. The IHY Education and Outreach Program is dedicated to inspiring the next generation of space and Earth scientists as well as spreading the knowledge, beauty, and relevance of our solar system to the people of the world. In our Space Weather Monitor project we deploy a global network of sensors to high schools and universities to provide quantitative diagnostics of solar-induced ionospheric disturbances, thunderstorm intensity, and magnetospheric activity. We bring real scientific instruments and data in a cost-effective way to students throughout the world. Instruments meet the objectives of being sensitive enough to produce research-quality data, yet inexpensive enough for placement in high schools and universities. The instruments and data have been shown to be appropriate to, and usable by, high school age and early university students. Data contributed to the Stanford data center is openly shared and partnerships between groups in different nations develop naturally. Students and teachers have direct access to scientific expertise.     

Interplanetary shocks and sudden impulses during solar maximum (2000) and solar minimum (1995–1996)

In this work a study is performed on the correlation between fast forward interplanetary shock parameters at 1 Astronomical Unit and sudden impulse (SI) amplitudes in the H-component of the geomagnetic field, for periods of solar activity maximum (year 2000) and minimum (year 1995–1996). Solar wind temperature, density and speed, and total magnetic field, were taken to calculate the static pressures (thermal and magnetic) both in the upstream and downstream sides of the shocks. The variations of the solar wind parameters and pressures were then correlated with SI amplitudes. The solar wind speed variations presented good correlations with sudden impulses, with correlation coefficients larger than 0.70 both in solar maximum and solar minimum, whereas the solar wind density presented very low correlation. The parameter better correlated with SI was the square root dynamic pressure variation, showing a larger correlation during solar maximum (r = 0.82) than during solar minimum (r = 0.77). The correlations of SI with square root thermal and magnetic pressure were smaller than with the dynamic pressure, but they also present a good correlation, with r > 0.70 during both solar maximum and minimum. Multiple linear correlation analysis of SI in terms of the three pressure terms have shown that 78% and 85% of the variance in SI during solar maximum and minimum, respectively, are explained by the three pressure variations. Average sudden impulse amplitude was 25 nT during solar maximum and 21 nT during solar minimum, while average square root dynamic pressure variation is 1.20 and 0.86 nPa^1/2 during solar maximum and minimum, respectively. Thus on average, fast forward interplanetary shocks are 33% stronger during solar maximum than during solar minimum, and the magnetospheric SI response has amplitude 20% higher during solar maximum than during solar minimum. A comparison with theoretical predictions (Tsyganenko’s model corrected by Earth’s induced currents) of the coefficient of sudden impulse change with solar wind dynamic pressure variation showed excellent agreement, with values around 17 nT/nPa^1/2.     

The relationship between plasma effects and cosmic radiation studied with TriTel-LMP measurements during the ESEO mission

The main point of the paper is to use the simultaneous measurements of the energetic particle flux by TriTel and those of electron density by a Langmuir probe to study the question of to what extent solar electromagnetic and corpuscular radiation (galactic cosmic rays, particle precipitation from the radiation belts) are responsible for the ionization of the atmosphere. The electron density measured by the Langmuir probe is the sum of the ionization produced by the solar electromagnetic radiation and that due to the corpuscular radiation. The ionization produced by the solar electromagnetic radiation may be computed. The flux of energetic particles in an energy range may be determined by taking the difference between the threshold energy of the TriTel telescopes and the energy corresponding to the local cut-off rigidity. As the ESEO satellite will have a quasi-polar and circular orbit, the cut-off rigidity will change from low to high latitudes, thus enabling the assignment of different energy bands for the telescopes. Thus, it will be possible to determine which energy bands of particle produce ionization at different latitudes.     

The potential of Meudon spectroheliograph for investigating long term solar activity and variability

Observations of the chromosphere with Deslandres’s spectroheliograph started at Paris Observatory in 1893 and were followed by systematic observations at Meudon since 1908. The solar collection of H$\alpha$ and CaII K images is probably the longest available worldwide, with associated products such as synoptic maps and tables. Since 2018, Meudon spectroheliograph is the only instrument producing data-cubes of full line profiles of CaII H, CaII K and H$\alpha$, for each pixel of the solar disk. Slices of the cubes provide monochromatic images. We summarize in this paper the capabilities of the successive generations of the instrument, and explore the potential of the collection and products for analysis of rare events, investigations of past solar activity and studies of long term variability.     

Variation of F-region critical frequency (foF2) over equatorial and low-latitude region of the Indian zone during 19th and 20th solar cycle

The effect of solar cycle and seasons on the daytime and nighttime F-layer ionization has been investigated over the equatorial and low-latitude region during 19th (1954–1964) and 20th (1965–1976) solar cycle. The F-layer critical frequency (foF2) data observed from the three Indian Ionosonde stations has been used for the present study. The dependence of foF2 on solar cycle has been examined by performing regression analysis between the foF2 values and R₁₂ (twelve month running average sunspot number). The result shows that the magnitude of the cycle, seasons and the location of station has considerable effects on foF2. There is a significant nonlinear relationship between the foF2 values and R₁₂ during 19th solar cycle as compared to 20th solar cycle. Further, the nighttime saturation effect is prominently seen during the 19th solar cycle and summer season. It is also observed that the most profound saturation effect appears at the equatorial ionization anomaly crest region. Seasonally, it is seen that all the stations exhibits semiannual anomaly. The phenomenon of winter anomaly decays as we move higher along the latitude and is prominently seen during the intense solar activity.     

On the correlation of the solar wind observed at the L5 point and at the Earth

The L5 point is a promising location for forecasting co-rotating high-speed streams in the solar wind arriving at the Earth. We correlated the solar wind data obtained by the Nozomi spacecraft in interplanetary space and by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) at the L1 point, and found that the correlation is significantly improved from that of the 27-day recurrence of ACE data. Based on the correlation between the two spacecraft observations, we estimated the correlation of the solar wind velocity between the L5 point and at the Earth, and found that the correlation coefficient was about 0.78 in late 1999, while that of the 27-day recurrence was 0.51. Eighty-eight percent of the velocity difference falls within 100 km/s between the L5 point and the Earth. This demonstrates the potential capability of solar wind monitoring at the L5 point to forecast the geomagnetic disturbances 4.5 days in advance.     

The hydroxyl radical as an indicator of SEP fluxes in the high-latitude terrestrial atmosphere

The low background values at nighttime of the mesospheric hydroxyl (OH) radical make it easier to single out the atmospheric response to the external solar forcing in Polar Regions. Because of the short lifetime of HO_x, it is possible to follow the trails of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events in the terrestrial atmosphere, as shown by Storini and Damiani (2008). The sensitivity of this indicator makes discernible not only extreme particle events with a flux peak of several thousand pfu [1 pfu = 1 particle/(cm² s sr)] at energies >10 MeV, but also those with lower flux up to about 300 pfu. Using data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on board the EOS AURA satellite, we examined the correlation of OH abundance vs. solar proton flux for almost all the identified SEP events spanning from November 2004 to December 2006 (later on no more SEP events occurred during Solar Cycle no. 23). The channels at energies greater than 5 MeV and 10 MeV showed the best correlation values (r ∼ 0.90–0.95) at altitudes around 65–75 km whereas, as expected, the most energetic channels were most highly correlated at lower altitudes. Therefore, it is reasonably possible to estimate the solar proton flux from values of mesospheric OH (and viceversa) and it could be useful in studying periods with gaps in the records of solar particles.     

Simultaneous observations of some unusual whistlers and VLF hiss emission at a low L-value (L = 1.17)

The purpose of this paper is to describe some unusual whistlers (doublets and triplets) and VLF hiss emission recorded simultaneously on February 18, 1998 during nighttime at a low latitude Indian ground station Jammu (geomag. lat., 22° 26′ N; L = 1.17), and to make some discussions about their origin. The detailed structures of the observed VLF hiss emission clearly show that these emissions confined to a narrow continuous frequency band. Some times the frequency of hiss band oscillates and subsequently touches the upper edge of the first whistler component of the doublet. Detailed structures of the dynamic spectra of whistler and VLF hiss emission are briefly presented. From the dispersion analysis of the whistler doublets and triplets, it is found that the individual whistlers of the doublets and triplets simultaneously observed on the same day are one-hop whistlers having propagation path along higher and closely spaced L-values. Our result also shows that VLF hiss has been generated in the equatorial region of higher L-values. Generation and propagation mechanisms are briefly discussed.     

The possibilities of polar meteorology,environmental remote sensing,communications and space weather applications from Artificial Lagrange Orbit

The ability to observe meteorological events in the polar regions of the Earth from satellite celebrated an anniversary, with the launch of TIROS-I in a pseudo-polar orbit on 1 April 1960. Yet, after 50 years, polar orbiting satellites are still the best view of the polar regions of the Earth. The luxuries of geostationary satellite orbit including rapid scan operations, feature tracking, and atmospheric motion vectors (or cloud drift winds), are enjoyed only by the middle and tropical latitudes or perhaps only cover the deep polar regions in the case of satellite derived winds from polar orbit. The prospect of a solar sailing satellite system in an Artificial Lagrange Orbit (ALO, also known as “pole sitters”) offers the opportunity for polar environmental remote sensing, communications, forecasting and space weather monitoring. While there are other orbital possibilities to achieve this goal, an ALO satellite system offers one of the best analogs to the geostationary satellite system for routine polar latitude observations.     

Variation in the ionospheric propagating factor M(3000)F2 at Ouagadougou,Burkina Faso

We use hourly monthly median values of propagation factor M(3000)F2 data observed at Ouagadougou Ionospheric Observatory (geographic12.4°N, 1.5°W; 5.9^o dip), Burkina Faso (West Africa) during the years Januar1987–December1988 (average F10.7 < 130 × 10⁻²² W/m²/Hz, representative of low solar flux conditions) and for January 1989–December1990 (average F10.7 ? 130 × 10⁻²² W/m²/Hz, representative of high solar epoch) for magnetically quiet conditions to describe local time, seasonal and solar cycle variations of equatorial ionospheric propagation factor M(3000)F2 in the African region. We show that that seasonal trend between solar maximum and solar minimum curves display simple patterns for all seasons and exhibits reasonable disparity with root mean square error (RMSE) of about 0.31, 0.29 and 0.26 for December solstice, June solstice and equinox, respectively. Variability Σ defined by the percentage ratio of the absolute standard deviation to the mean indicates significant dissimilarity for the two solar flux levels. Solar maximum day (10–14 LT) and night (22–02 LT) values show considerable variations than the solar minimum day and night values. We compare our observations with those of the IRI 2007 to validate the prediction capacity of the empirical model. We find that the IRI model tends to underestimate and overestimate the observed values of M(3000)F2, in particular, during June solstice season. There are large discrepancies, mainly during high solar flux equinox and December solstice between dawn and local midnight. On the other hand, IRI provides a slightly better predictions for M(3000)F2 between 0900 and 1500 LT during equinox low and high solar activity and equinox high sunspot number. Our data are of great importance in the area of short-wave telecommunication and ionospheric modeling.     

Variability of the behavior of the bottomside (B0, B1) parameters obtained from the ground-based ionograms at China’s low latitude station

In this paper, data of (B0, B1) parameters deduced from the electron density profiles that are inverted from the ionograms recorded at Hainan (19.4°N, 109.0°E), China during a three year period from March 2002 to February 2005 are used to study the diurnal and seasonal variation of (B0, B1) parameters at low latitude. The observational results are compared with the IRI2001 model predictions. Variability study of (B0, B1) in terms of percentage ratio of the inter-quartiles to the median values and correlative analysis between (B0, B1) parameters and other ionospheric characteristics such as hmF2 and M(3000)F2 are also made. Our present study showed that: (1) for daytime hours, the IRI2001 model results with new table option (B0_Tab) is in a better agreement with the observational results (B0_Obs) than the IRI2001 model results with Gulyaeva option (B0_Gul) for summer season, whereas B0_Gul is in a better agreement with B0_Obs than B0_Tab for winter season. For nighttime, in general, B0_Gul is in a better agreement with B0_Obs than B0_Tab. For other occasions, both B0_Tab and B0_Gul showed some systematic deviations from the observational ones. Moreover, the deviations of B0_Tab and B0_Gul from B0_Obs showed opposite trends; (2) the monthly upper (lower) quartiles of (B0, B1) parameter showed a good linear relationship with the monthly median values, this makes it possible to do the regression analysis between the monthly upper (lower) quartiles and the monthly median values, which can give a measure of the variability of these parameters. In terms of the percentage ratio of the inter-quartiles to the median values, the variability of B0 showed a diurnal variation ranging between 22% and 36% with maximum value occurring at pre-sunrise hours, whereas the variability of B1 showed a diurnal variation ranging between 15% and 30% with higher value by daytime than at night; (3) B0 shows high linear correlative relationships with hmF2 and M(3000)F2 for most of the local time period of a day except for a few hours around midnight, whereas B1 showed high linear correlations with B0, hmF2 for daytime hours, but not for nighttime hours. This suggests that it maybe is possible to obtain the synthetic database of (B0, B1) parameter or to construct the model of (B0, B1) using database of hmF2 or M(3000)F2 which is much easier to obtain from experimental measurements.     

The characteristics of sharp (small-scale) boundaries of solar wind plasma and magnetic field structures

We investigate properties of large (>20%) and sharp (<10 min) solar wind ion flux changes using INTERBALL-1 and WIND plasma and magnetic field measurements from 1996 to 1999. These ion flux changes are the boundaries of small-scale and middle-scale solar wind structures. We describe the behavior of the solar wind velocity, temperature and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) during these sudden flux changes. Many of the largest ion flux changes occur during periods when the solar wind velocity is nearly constant, so these are mainly plasma density changes. The IMF magnitude and direction changes at these events can be either large or small. For about 55% of the ion flux changes, the sum of the thermal and magnetic pressure are in balance across the boundary. In many of the other cases, the thermal pressure change is significantly more than the magnetic pressure change. We also attempted to classify the types of discontinuities observed.     

The role of the society of Latin American specialists on remote sensing (SELPER) in the analysis and actions related to the main advances and needs of spatial remote sensing for Latin America

The existence of SELPER (Sociedad de Especialistas Latinoamericanos en Percepción Remota / Society of Latinamerican Specialists on Remote Sensing) has filled a great gap among latinamerican countries. SELPER was formed in 1980 and several important activities, having international support, have been performed and are planned in the near future. SELPER consolidation will help develop several important regional cooperation programs and the next years look very promisory in this sense. Different steps are planned but the most important is related with the formation of such a Latin American Council on Remote Sensing, having official support from different countries of the region; SELPER can help this important objective. Main advances and needs are summarized in this paper and it is possible to conclude that SELPER will be important for regional and inter-regional scientific and technical cooperation on remote sensing.     

2007-2009谷年期间高热层大气密度的变化

在第23至第24太阳活动周的峰年之间,太阳活动谷年具有持续时间长,极低F_10.7太阳辐射通量（低至65）和超长期的零太阳黑子数记录等特点,因此是观测和研究在这种特殊背景下热层大气变化的极好机会.尤其是能充分理解和掌握在宁静环境下热层大气密度对弱太阳活动和小地磁扰动的响应特性.本文利用高度650 km以上星载大气密度探测器2007—2009年的连续探测数据进行分析,结果表明,在太阳辐射通量F_10.7极低值期间,较高热层大气密度对F_10.7的起伏具有更显著的响应变化.当F_10.7由70降至65时,日均大气密度会有4～5倍的显著降变,远大于通常大气模式中的降变值.同样在F_10.7极低值期间,较高热层大气密度对小地磁扰动也具有显著的响应增变,当日K_p指数之和由23增至30时,较高热层大气密度则会有80%～160%的强增变.     

Encounter trajectories for deep space mission ASTER to the triple near Earth asteroid 2001-SN263. The laser altimeter (ALR) point of view

In cooperation with Russia, the Brazilian deep space mission ASTER plans to send a small spacecraft to investigate the triple asteroid 2001-SN263. The nearest launch opportunities for this project include June 2022 and June 2025. One main exploration campaign is being planned with focus on the largest asteroid (Alpha). Among the instruments under development, a laser altimeter (named ALR) was preliminarily designed and presented in 2010–2011. Many studies to define mission and instruments requirements were performed aiming at the characterization of important issues for the successful realization of the mission. Among them, the identification of a suitable trajectory that could be followed by the ASTER spacecraft in the encounter phase, when the main campaign will take place. This paper describes the effort undertaken with focus on the laser altimeter operation. Possible encounter trajectories were modelled and simulated to identify suitable approach parameters and conditions allowing the accomplishment of the intended investigation. The simulation also involves the instrument operation, considering approach geometry, attitude, relative motion, time/date, and the dynamics of the main asteroid. From the laser altimeter point of view, keeping in mind the desired coverage results (50% minimum surface coverage of asteroid Alpha, complying with horizontal and vertical resolution requirements), results point out crucial features for the encounter trajectory, like the need for a small inclination (10^-6 degrees; with respect to the asteroid's orbit), the most favourable spacecraft positioning (between the Sun and the asteroid) and pointing condition (back to the Sun), the minimum amount of achievable surface coverage (58%, focused on central areas), and the most proper time to conduct the main campaign (January 2025). Concerning the instrument, results offer refined values for divergence angle (500 to 650 μrad, half-cone), pulse repetition frequencies (from 1/20 to 1 Hz), and consequent data generation rates. A simulation tool that can use any 3D generated trajectories as input data was created for the analyses presented here. Although created for the ALR in this mission, this simple analysis tool can be adapted to other instruments in this or other missions.