Response of the ionosphere to super geomagnetic storms: Observations and modeling

The relative importance of the main drivers of positive ionospheric storms at low-mid latitudes is studied using observations and modeling for the first time. In response to a rare super double geomagnetic storm during 07–11 November 2004, the low-mid latitude (17°–48°N geomag. lat.) ionosphere produced positive ionospheric storms in peak electron density (NmF2) in Japan longitudes (≈125°–145°E) on the day of main phase (MP1) onset (06:30 LT) and negative ionospheric storms in American longitudes (≈65°–120°W) on the following day of MP1 onset (13:00–16:00 LT). The relative effects of the main drivers of the positive ionospheric storms (penetrating daytime eastward electric field, and direct and indirect effects of equatorward neutral wind) are studied using the Sheffield University Plasmasphere Ionosphere Model (SUPIM). The model results show that the penetrating daytime (morning–noon) eastward electric field shifts the equatorial ionisation anomaly crests in NmF2 and TEC (total electron content) to higher than normal latitudes and reduces their values at latitudes at and within the anomaly crests while the direct effects of the equatorward wind (that reduce poleward plasma flow and raise the ionosphere to high altitudes of reduced chemical loss) combined with daytime production of ionisation increase NmF2 and TEC at latitudes poleward of the equatorial region; the later effects can be major causes of positive ionospheric storms at mid latitudes. The downwelling (indirect) effect of the wind increases NmF2 and TEC at low latitudes while its upwelling (indirect) effect reduces NmF2 and TEC at mid latitudes. The net effect of all main drivers is positive ionospheric storms at low-mid latitudes in Japan longitude, which qualitatively agrees with the observations.     

Nightside 135.6 nm emission enhancements of mid/low latitudes during geomagnetic storms as observed by the ionosphere PhotoMeter (IPM) on the Chinese meteorological satellite FY-3D

IPM has detected nightside 135.6 nm emission enhancements over a wide latitude range, from the sub-auroral latitudes to the equatorial regions during geomagnetic storms. Our work, presented in this paper, uses the data of IPM to understand these 135.6 nm emission enhancements during of geomagnetic storms and studies the variations of total electron content (TEC) and the F₂ layer peak electron density (NmF2) in the region of enhanced emissions. Middle and low latitude emission enhancements are presented during several medium storms in 2018. The variations of both the integrated electron content (IEC) derived from the nighttime OI 135.6 nm emission by IPM and TEC from the International GNSS Service (IGS) relative to the daily mean of magnetically quiet days of per each latitude bin (30°≦geographic latitude < 40°, 15°≦geographic latitude < 30°, 0°≦geographic latitude < 15°, ?15°≦geographic latitude < 0°, ?30°≦geographic latitude < -15°, ?40°≦geographic latitude < -30°) are investigated and show that on magnetically storm day, IEC by IPM always increases, while TEC from IGC may increase or decrease. Even if both increase, the increase of IEC is greater than that of TEC. From the comparison of IEC and TEC during magnetic storms, it can be seen that the enhancement of the nighttime 135.6 nm emissions is not entirely due to the ionospheric change. The time of IEC enhancements at each latitude bin is in good agreement, which mainly corresponds to the main phase time of the geomagnetic storm event and lasts until the recovery phase. The available ground-based ionosonde stations provide the values of NmF2 which match the 135.6 nm emissions measured by IPM in space and time. The variations of NmF2 squared can characterize the variations of the OI 135.6 nm emissions caused by O⁺ ions and electrons radiative recombination. The study results show that the OI 135.6 nm emission enhancements caused by O⁺ ions and electrons radiative recombination (where NmF2 squared increases) are obviously a contribution to the measured 135.6 nm emission enhancements by IPM. The contribution accounts for at least one of all contributions to the measured 135.6 nm emission enhancements by IPM. However, where the NmF2 squared provided by ionosonde decrease or change little (where the OI 135.6 nm emissions cause by O⁺ ions and electrons radiative recombination also decrease or change little), the emission enhancements measured by IPM at storm-time appear to come from the contributions of other mechanisms, such as energetic neutral atoms precipitation, or the mutual neutralization emission (O+ + O-→2O + h? (135.6 nm)) which also occupies a certain proportion in 135.6 nm airglow emission at night.     

Effects observed in the equatorial and low latitude ionospheric F-region in the Brazilian sector during low solar activity geomagnetic storms and comparison with the COSMIC measurements

The main objective of the present investigation has been to compare the ionospheric parameters (NmF2 and hmF2) observed by two ground-based ionospheric sounders (one at PALMAS- located near the magnetic equator and the other at Sao Jose dos Campos-located in the low-latitude region) in the Brazilian sector with that by the satellite FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC radio occultation (RO) measurements during two geomagnetic storms which occurred in December 2006 and July 2009. It should be pointed out that in spite of increasing the latitude (to 10°) and longitude (to 20°) around the stations; we had very few common observations. It has been observed that both the peak electron density (NmF2) and peak height (hmF2) observed by two different techniques (space-borne COSMIC and ground-based ionosondes) during both the geomagnetic storm events compares fairly well (with high correlation coefficients) at the two stations in the Brazilian sector. It should be pointed out that due to equatorial spread F (ESF) in the first storm (December 2006) and no-reflections from the ionosphere during nighttime in the second storm (July 2009), we had virtually daytime data from the two ionosondes.     

The solar wind control of the equatorial ionosphere dynamics during geomagnetic storms

The interplanetary magnetic field, geomagnetic variations, virtual ionosphere height h′F, and the critical frequency foF2 data during the geomagnetic storms are studied to demonstrate relationships between these phenomena. We study 5-min ionospheric variations using the first Western Pacific Ionosphere Campaign (1998–1999) observations, 5-min interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and 5-min auroral electrojets data during a moderate geomagnetic storm. These data allowed us to demonstrate that the auroral and the equatorial ionospheric phenomena are developed practically simultaneously. Hourly average of the ionospheric foF2 and h′F variations at near equatorial stations during a similar storm show the same behavior. We suppose this is due to interaction between electric fields of the auroral and the equatorial ionosphere during geomagnetic storms. It is shown that the low-latitude ionosphere dynamics during these moderate storms was defined by the southward direction of the B_z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field. A southward IMF produces the Region I and Region II field-aligned currents (FAC) and polar electrojet current systems. We assume that the short-term ionospheric variations during geomagnetic storms can be explained mainly by the electric field of the FAC. The electric fields of the field-aligned currents can penetrate throughout the mid-latitude ionosphere to the equator and may serve as a coupling agent between the auroral and the equatorial ionosphere.     

Multi-station observation of ionospheric disturbance of March 9 2012 and comparison with IRI-model

The magnetic storm of 9 March 2012 is a single step intense storm (Dst = −143 nT) whose main phase begins around 0100 UT and lasted for almost 11 h. The increases in NmF2 recorded 33% and 67% incidence respectively during the main and the recovery phase of the storm at the stations considered. The increase in hmF2 occurred concurrently with the increase in thickness parameter B0 between 0000 and 1100 UT, and a simultaneous decrease in the shape parameter B1 for the entire mid-latitude stations. Generally, B1 responded to the storm with a decrease away from the quiet day average, and decreased simultaneously with the increase in NmF2. B0 displays higher variability magnitude during daytime than the nighttime period. The occasional differences in the response of the ionospheric parameters to the storm event are attributed to longitudinal differences. Variation in hmF2 and NmF2 is projected to change in B1, but the rationale behind this effect on B1 is still not known and therefore left open. The two IRI options over-estimate the observed values with that of URSI higher than CCIR. The over-estimation was higher during the nighttime than the daytime for NmF2 response for the mid-latitude stations and the reverse for the equatorial station. A fairer fit of the model with the observed for all parameters over Jicamarca suggests that equatorial regions are better represented on the model. Extensive study of B1 and B0 is recommended to arrive at a better performance of IRI.     

Pre-storm behaviour of NmF2 and TEC (GPS) over equatorial and low latitude stations in the Indian sector

The pre-storm behavior of NmF₂ and TEC over an equatorial station, Trivandrum (8.47°N, 76.91°E, dip 0.6°S) and a low latitude station, Waltair (17.7°N,83.3°E, dip 20°N) has been studied for a total of 18 strong geomagnetic storms with DST ? −100 nT. The simultaneous measurements of GPS-TEC and NmF₂ over Trivandrum and Waltair during the period 2000–2005 have been considered for the present study. It is found that there is a substantial increase in NmF₂ and TEC before the onset of the storm over Waltair, while the increase is not present at Trivandrum. The origin of pre-storm enhancements in electron density still remains unresolved owing to several conditions in their potential sources and occurrence mechanisms. In the present study an attempt is made to identify the possible mechanisms responsible for such enhancements in electron density of the F-region.     

Some ionospheric storm effects at equatorial and low latitudes

In this paper, the response of the equatorial and low latitude ionosphere to three intense geomagnetic storms occurred in 2002 and 2003 is reported. For that, critical frequency of F2-layer foF2 and the peak height hmF2 hmF2 for the stations Jicamarca (11.9°S), Ascension Is (7.92°S) and Tucuman (26.9°S) are used. The results show a “smoothing” of the Equatorial Anomaly structure during the development of the storms. Noticeable features are the increases in foF2 before the storm sudden commencement (SC) at equatorial latitudes and the southern crest of the Equatorial Anomaly. In some cases nearly simultaneous increases in foF2 are observed in response to the storm, which are attributed to the prompt electric field. Also, positive effects observed at equatorial and low latitudes during the development of the storm seem to be caused by the disturbance dynamo electric field due to the storm-time circulation. Increases in foF2 above the equator and simultaneous decreases in foF2 at the south crest near to the end of a long-duration main phase are attributed to equatorward-directed meridional winds. Decreases in foF2 observed during the recovery phase of storms are believed to be caused by composition changes. The results indicate that the prompt penetration electric field on the EA is important but their effect is of short lived. More significant ionospheric effects are the produced by the disturbance dynamo electric field. The role of storm-time winds is important because they modify the “fountain effect” and transport the composition changes toward low latitudes.     

全球电离层对2000年4月6-7日磁暴事件的响应

利用分布于全球的电离层台站的测高仪观测数据,对扰动期间,foF2值与其宁静期间参考值进行比较,研究了2000年4月6—7日磁暴期间全球不同区域电离层的响应形态,并通过对比磁扰期间NmF2的变化与由MSISR90经验模式估算的中性大气浓度比(no／nN2)的变化,探讨了本次事件期间的电离层暴扰动机制．结果表明,在磁暴主相和恢复相早期,出现了全球性的电离层F2层负相暴效应．最大负相暴效应出现在磁暴恢复相早期,即电离层暴恢复相开始时间滞后于磁暴恢复相开始时间．在磁暴恢复相后期,一些台站出现正相扰动．研究结果表明,本次事件期间的电离层暴主要是由磁暴活动而诱发的热层暴环流引起的．     

Effects of CME and CIR induced geomagnetic storms on low-latitude ionization over Indian longitudes in terms of neutral dynamics

This paper presents the response of the ionosphere during the intense geomagnetic storms of October 12–20, 2016 and May 26–31, 2017 which occurred during the declining phase of the solar cycle 24. Total Electron Content (TEC) from GPS measured at Indore, Calcutta and Siliguri having geomagnetic dips varying from 32.23°N, 32°N and 39.49°N respectively and at the International GNSS Service (IGS) stations at Lucknow (beyond anomaly crest), Hyderabad (between geomagnetic equator and northern crest of EIA) and Bangalore (near magnetic equator) in the Indian longitude zone have been used for the storms. Prominent peaks in diurnal maximum in excess of 20–45 TECU over the quiet time values were observed during the October 2016 storm at Lucknow, Indore, Hyderabad, Bangalore and 10–20 TECU for the May 2017 storm at Siliguri, Indore, Calcutta and Hyderabad. The GUVI images onboard TIMED spacecraft that measures the thermospheric O/N₂ ratio, showed high values (O/N₂ ratio of about 0.7) on October 16 when positive storm effects were observed compared to the other days during the storm period. The observed features have been explained in terms of the O/N₂ ratio increase in the equatorial thermosphere, CIR-induced High Speed Solar Wind (HSSW) event for the October 2016 storm. The TEC enhancement has also been explained in terms of the Auroral Electrojet (AE), neutral wind values obtained from the Horizontal Wind Model (HWM14) and equatorial electrojet strength from magnetometer data for both October 2016 and May 2017 storms. These results are one of the first to be reported from the Indian longitude sector on influence of CME- and CIR-driven geomagnetic storms on TEC during the declining phase of solar cycle 24.     

Investigation of ionospheric response to two moderate geomagnetic storms using GPS–TEC measurements in the South American and African sectors during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24

The responses of the ionospheric F region using GPS–TEC measurements during two moderate geomagnetic storms at equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions over the South American and African sectors in May 2010, during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, are investigated. The first moderate geomagnetic storm studied reached a minimum Dst value of −64 nT at 1500 UT on 02 May 2010 and the second moderate geomagnetic storm reached a minimum Dst value of −85 nT at 1400 UT on 29 May 2010. In this paper, we present vertical total electron content (VTEC) and phase fluctuations (in TECU/min) from Global Positioning System (GPS) observations from the equatorial to mid-latitude regions in the South American and African sectors. Our results obtained during these two moderate geomagnetic storms from both sectors show significant positive ionospheric storms during daytime hours at the equatorial, low-, and mid-latitude regions during the main and recovery phases of the storms. The thermospheric wind circulation change towards the equator is a strong indicator that suggests an important mechanism is responsible for these positive phases at these regions. A pre-storm event that was observed in the African sector from low- to the mid-latitude regions on 01 May 2010 was absent in the South American sector. This study also showed that there was no generation or suppression of ionospheric irregularities by storm events. Therefore, knowledge about the suppression and generation of ionospheric irregularities during moderate geomagnetic storms is still unclear.     

Response of the lower atmosphere to intense geomagnetic storms

In this short paper we examine the possible connection between atmospheric parameters measured at low and middle altitudes and geomagnetic storms occurred in 2000 and 2003. For that, from a chain of stations located near the meridian 60°W we compare the storm time values of temperature and wind speed with their standard deviation 2σ obtained from quiet time values. We observed statistically significant variations at several altitudes during the storm recovery phase and after it, both in neutral wind speed and temperature. The results obtained suggest that atmospheric parameters could be affected by geomagnetic storms.     

Study of TEC changes during geomagnetic storms occurred near the crest of the equatorial ionospheric ionization anomaly in the Indian sector

GPS satellites data obtained at Bhopal (23.16° N, 77.36° E, geomagnetic latitude 14.23° N) India were analyzed to study the TEC changes during several geomagnetic storms (−300 nT < Dst < −50 nT) occurred in 2005–2007. We had segregated the storms according to the Dst value, i.e. moderate storms (−100 nT < Dst ? −50 nT), strong storms (−150 nT < Dst < −100 nT), and severe storms (Dst less than −150 nT). Total of 21 geomagnetic storms (10 moderate, 9 strong, 2 severe) are considered for the present study. Deviation in vertical total electron content (VTEC) during the main phase of the storm was found to be associated with the prompt penetration of electric field originated due to the under-shielding and over-shielding conditions for almost all geomagnetic storms discussed in this paper. For most of the storms VTEC shows the positive percentage deviation during the main phase while it shows positive as well as the negative deviation during the recovery phase of the storms. The −80% deviation in VTEC was found for geomagnetic storm occurred on July 17, 2005 and the negative trend continued for recovery phase of the storm. This was mainly due to the thermospheric composition changes by Joule heating effect at auroral latitudes that generate electric field disturbance at low latitudes. Traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) were responsible for the formation of wave like nature in VTEC for the storms occurred on May 15, 2005, whereas it was not observed for storm occurred on August 24, 2005.     

Traveling ionospheric disturbances observed at South African midlatitudes during the 29–31 October 2003 geomagnetically disturbed period

This paper presents traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) observations from GPS measurements over the South African region during the geomagnetically disturbed period of 29–31 October 2003. Two receiver arrays, which were along two distinct longitudinal sectors of about 18°-20° and 27°-28° were used in order to investigate the amplitude, periods and virtual propagation characteristics of the storm induced ionospheric disturbances. The study revealed a large sudden TEC increase on 28 October 2003, the day before the first of the two major storms studied here, that was recorded simultaneously by all the receivers used. This pre-storm enhancement was linked to an X-class solar flare, auroral/magnetospheric activities and vertical plasma drift, based on the behaviour of the geomagnetic storm and auroral indices as well as strong equatorial electrojet. Diurnal trends of the TEC and foF2 measurements revealed that the geomagnetic storm caused a negative ionospheric storm; these parameters were depleted between 29 and 31 October 2003. Large scale traveling ionospheric disturbances were observed on the days of the geomagnetic storms (29 and 31 October 2003), using line-of-sight vertical TEC (vTEC) measurements from individual satellites. Amplitude and dominant periods of these structures varied between 0.08–2.16 TECU, and 1.07–2.13 h respectively. The wave structures were observed to propagate towards the equator with velocities between 587.04 and 1635.09 m/s.     

Deformation of the ionosphere structure during the space weather events on October–November 2003

We present the spatial maps of the ionosphere–plasmasphere slab thickness τ (ratio of the vertical total electron content, TEC, to the F-region peak electron density, NmF2) during the intense ionospheric storms of October–November 2003. The model-assisted technology for estimate of the upper boundary of the ionosphere, hup, from the slab thickness components in the bottomside and topside ionosphere – eliminating the plasmasphere contribution of τ – is applied at latitudes 35° to 70°N and longitudes −10° to 40°E, from the data of 20 observatories of GPS-TEC and ionosonde networks, for selected days and hours of October and November 2003. The daily–hourly values of NmF2, hmF2 and TECgps are used as the constrained parameters for the International Reference Ionosphere extended to the plasmasphere, IRI-Plas, during the ionospheric quiet days, positive and negative storm phases for estimate of τ and hup. Good correlation has been found between the slab thickness and the upper boundary of the ionosphere for the intense ionospheric storms at October–November 2003. During the negative phase of the ionospheric storm, when the ionospheric plasma density is exhausted, the nighttime upper boundary of the ionosphere is greatly uplifted towards the magnetosphere tail, while the daytime upper boundary of the ionosphere is reduced below 500 km over the Earth.     

Moderate geomagnetic storms of January 22–25, 2012 and their influences on the wave components in ionosphere and upper stratosphere-mesosphere regions

Moderate geomagnetic storms occurred during January 22–25, 2012 period. The geomagnetic storms are characterized by different indices and parameters. The SYM-H value on January 22 increased abruptly to 67 nT at sudden storm commencement (SSC), followed by a sharp decrease to −87 nT. A second SSC on January 24 followed by a shock on January 25 was also observed. These SSCs before the main storms and the short recovery periods imply the geomagnetic storms are CME  -driven. The sudden jump of solar wind dynamic pressure and IMF _Bz$B_z$ are also consistent with occurrence of CMEs. This is also reflected in the change in total electron content (TEC) during the storm relative to quiet days globally. The response of the ionospheric to geomagnetic storms can also be detected from wave components that account for the majority of TEC variance during the period. The dominant coherent modes of TEC variability are diurnal and semidiurnal signals which account upto 83% and 30% of the total TEC variance over fairly exclusive ionospheric regions respectively. Comparison of TEC anomalies attributed to diurnal (DW1) and semidiurnal (SW2) tides, as well as stationary planetary waves (SPW1) at 12 UTC shows enhancement in the positive anomalies following the storm. Moreover, the impact of the geomagnetic storms are distinctly marked in the daily time series of amplitudes of DW1, SW2 and SPW1. The abrupt changes in amplitudes of DW1 (5 TECU) and SW2 (2 TECU) are observed within 20°S–20°N latitude band and along 20°N respectively while that of SPW1 is about 3 TECU. Coherent oscillation with a period of 2.4 days between interplanetary magnetic field and TEC was detected during the storm. This oscillation is also detected in the amplitudes of DW1 over EIA regions in both hemispheres. Eventhough upward coupling of quasi two day wave (QTDWs) of the same periodicity, known to have caused such oscillation, are detected in both ionosphere and upper stratosphere, this one can likely be attributed to the geomagnetic storm as it happens after the storm commencement. Moreover, further analysis has indicated that QTDWs in the ionosphere are strengthened as a result of coherent oscillation of interplanetary magnetic field with the same frequency as QTDWs. On the otherhand, occurrences of minor SSW and geomagnetic storms in quick succession complicated clear demarcation of attribution of the respective events to variability of QTDWs amplitudes over upper stratosphere.     

Ionospheric disturbances on 8 September, 2010: Was it connected with the incoming moderate Chongqing earthquake?

Earthquake prediction stimulates the searches for a correlation between seismic activity and ionospheric anomalies. Contrary to common focuses on strong earthquakes, we report the ionospheric disturbances, 2 days before a moderate Ms = 4.7 Chongqing earthquake (29.4°N, 105.5°E, depth = 7.0 km, occurred at 21:21 LT, 10 September, 2010) with the data of ground-based ionosondes and IGS receivers. The data covering the period under the quiet geomagnetic conditions and a geomagnetic storm was analyzed with upper and lower bounds. It is found that there were significant enhancements of foF2 and total electron content (TEC) on the afternoon of 8 September, 2010, with a limited area close to the epicentre, which was different from the feature of ionospheric perturbations triggered by the geomagnetic storm on 15 September. Taking into account the heliogeomagnetical condition, we conclude that the observed ionospheric enhancements were very likely associated with the forthcoming moderate Chongqing earthquake, which implies that the relationship between the amplitudes of ionospheric disturbances and earthquakes is very complicated.     

Variations in the thermosphere and ionosphere response to the 17–20 April 2002 geomagnetic storms

The responses of the thermospheric density and ionospheric foF2 to the intense magnetic storms event on 17–20 April were analyzed by using data from CHAMP/STAR and ionosonde stations respectively, and NRLMSISE-00 and IRI-2007 models were used to simulate. The models can capture the tendency of changes, especially under quiet or moderate geomagnetic conditions, but are less accurate under geomagnetic storms. The thermospheric density is sensitive to the EUV emission and geomagnetic activity, and double-peak structure appeared in the dayside. On 19 April dayside, TADs traveled toward the equator with phase speeds of the order of 300–750 m/s, interfered near the equator to produce a total density perturbation of 25%, and then passed through each other and into the opposite hemisphere. For ionospheric foF2, there are non-symmetric hemispheres’ features during the intense geomagnetic activities. In details, middle latitudes in the north and high latitudes in both hemispheres are negative ionospheric storms, and the maximum amplitudes of δfoF2$\delta \mathit{foF}2$ is about 60%, but the amplitudes decrease from the higher to lower latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, the equatorial station shows positive phase, and the maximum value is about 100%. Finally, the mechanisms for these features will be discussed in this study.     

Effects of strong geomagnetic storms on Northern railways in Russia

Seventeen severe magnetic storms occurred in the period 2000 through 2005. In addition there was a major magnetic storm in March 1989. During each of these storms there was an anomaly in the operation of the system of Signalization, Centralization and Blockage (SCB) in some divisions of the high-latitude (∼58 to 64°N) Russian railways. This anomaly was revealed as false traffic light signals about the occupation of the railways. These signals on the Northern railways appeared exactly during the main phases of the strongest part of the geomagnetic storms characterized by high geomagnetic indices Dst and Kp (Ap). Moreover, the durations of these anomalies coincided with the period of the greatest geomagnetic disturbances in a given event. Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) during significant strengthening of geomagnetic activity are concluded as the obvious reasons for such kind of anomalies.     

利用地面宇宙线强度变化预报地磁暴方法初步研究

分析了Nagoya宇宙线闪烁体望远镜探测数据的变化特点,定性地探讨了CME可能引起的地面宇宙线的变化特征,通过实例证实了地面宇宙线通量的异常波动是地磁暴发生的重要先兆特征,并且将8 h内宇宙线通量与该时间段内平均通量的偏差D8(t)参数应用到宇宙线数据分析中.通过数据分析与讨论,认为D8(t)参数达到一定阈值是地磁暴的重要先兆特征,但不是充分条件,虚假信号仍占多数;D8(t)参数与太阳质子事件探测结果相结合,对于大地磁暴的预报有较好的效果.      

宇宙线变化特征在强地磁暴预报中的应用

利用宇宙线中子探测数据定性分析了地面宇宙线多台站之间的相互联系以及大磁暴与宇宙线之间的响应关系. 以Irkutsk和Oulu宇宙线台站为例, 运用小波去噪技术提高数据的稳定性. 结果表明, 相同世界时条件下, 两站宇宙线通量相关性在事件发生时较高; 而相同地方时条件下, 相关性则在平静期较高. 进一步采用相同地方时条件对不同宇宙线台站的通量在平静期和扰动期的相对变化进行分析, 选取2004年7月强地磁暴典型事例进行直观分析, 发现大地磁暴前Irkutsk和Oulu台站的宇宙线相对通量发生明显差异, 可以尝试作为强地磁暴宇宙线先兆特征. 通过对2001年3月至2005年5月的强磁暴和中强磁暴进行统计, 得到与强地磁暴相关的适当宇宙线相对差异阈值. 将得到的阈值对2005年9月至2011年12月所有强磁暴及中强磁暴进行验证, 总成功率达到87.5%, 误报率为35.7%, 结果较好.