Structured methods for identifying and correcting potential human errors in space operations

Human performance plays a significant role in the development and operation of any complex system, and human errors are significant contributors to degraded performance, incidents, and accidents for technologies as diverse as medical systems, commercial aircraft, offshore oil platforms, nuclear power plants, and space systems. To date, serious accidents attributed to human error have fortunately been rare in space operations. However, as flight rates go up and the duration of space missions increases, the accident rate could increase unless proactive action is taken to identity and correct potential human errors in space operations. The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) has developed and applied structured methods of human error analysis to identify potential human errors, assess their effects on system performance, and develop strategies to prevent the errors or mitigate their consequences. These methods are being applied in NASA-sponsored programs to the domain of commercial aviation, focusing on airplane maintenance and air traffic management. The application of human error analysis to space operations could contribute to minimize the risks associated with human error in the design and operation of future space systems.     

Space debris and the need for space traffic control

This report summarises the presentations which took place at the ‘Space Traffic Control – Is the Space Debris Problem Solvable?’ conference hosted by the Royal Aeronautical Society on the 2nd July 2013. The conference sought to promote discussion over methods to deal with the issue of space debris in particular and speakers included representatives from the European Space Agency, the United Kingdom Space Agency, practitioners and academia. Themes which emerged during the conference included the urgency of the problem of space debris, the need for short-term and long-term solutions, the necessity for the development and implementation of space debris remediation technologies to complement existing mitigation efforts and, last but not least, the wider applications of space traffic control. Regarding the sub-title of the conference, ‘is the space debris problem solvable?’, it would appear from the presentations that while there is the potential for future management of the issue through debris remediation and harmonised mitigation efforts, no comprehensive solutions exist at the time of writing.     

Which institutions for space traffic management?

As orbits are becoming overcrowded the need for a space traffic management system to track space objects, prevent collisions and interference and deal with debris is pressing. Serious political and economic barriers to its creation include the tendency for countries to seek unilateral solutions to safeguard individual nations and moves towards the weaponization of outer space. However, only a cooperative global body will be able to manage space efficiently and fairly. This viewpoint discusses the (lack of) institutions and instruments already in place to manage space and outlines the type of institutional arrangements that might work, suggesting ICAO as a possible model.     

Technological learning through international collaboration: Lessons from the field

Countries on every continent are making new or renewed commitments to domestic satellite programs. These programs have the potential to address national needs by enhancing access to information, improving infrastructure and providing inspiration to the public. How do countries without local expertise in space technology begin a new satellite program? What is the role of international collaboration in supporting the efforts of a new space fairing country? This paper explores such questions by highlighting outputs from intensive field work in Africa and Asia. Specifically, the study explores case studies of early space activity in these countries to search for lessons about the management of a young space program. The observations from field work are compared to ideas from scholarly literature on technological learning. The findings are organized using principles from systems architecture. The paper presents a model that captures many of the influences and strategic decision areas for a collaborative satellite development project. The paper also highlights the growth of capability among African countries in the area of satellite technology.     

Space Debris at the United Nations

Rules for activities in outer space are agreed upon in the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space of the United Nations. Several international treaties have been adopted in the 1970s, that is, at a time before space debris became a concern for the international community. In the years 1979–1988 numerous documents were prepared by the UN Secretariat on space debris, but no official discussions of the problem were initiated by states members of the COPUOS. First proposals for introducing the matter to the UN appeared around 1988, after important studies on the subject were published by states and leading intergovernmental organizations. Also the International Telecommunication Union became concerned about the proliferation of space debris in the geostationary orbit and adopted in 1993 a recommendation to restrict the generation of debris and to re-orbit satellites approaching the end of their active lives into disposal orbits beyond the belt populated by active satellites. In 1994, the UN started discussing scientific and technical aspects of space debris. In the following years, with the assistance of experts from prominent space agencies, it elaborated a Technical Report on space debris. Legal aspects of the problem have not yet begun being discussed because the necessary consensus among states members of the COPUOS has not yet been achieved. Very recently, the UN received first information on a wider subject, space traffic management.     

Safety issues in SPS wireless power transmission

The use of wireless power transmission in Space Solar Power (SSP) activities creates significant policy issues regarding the beam right-of-way. There will not be a single beam, there may well be hundreds of beams for economical systems. Are some or all of these power beams to be afforded priorities of space for unobstructed power delivery, or must the beaming systems be designed to be capable of detecting any and all potential beam interceptions and appropriately responding? The repeated interruptions for guaranteed safety of transit for freely moving air and space traffic are of great consequence. The safety issues are critical, but the implications for equipment transient protection, energy storage system costs and the quality of power delivery service are also significant for wireless power transmission economics. A scenario of precursor wireless power transmission developments leading up to and including SSP applications will be used to frame and to discuss the beamed power technology implications and policy issues.     

Balloon-borne air traffic management (ATM) as a precursor to space-based ATM

The International Space University—Balloon Air traffic control Technology Experiment (I-BATE¹) has flown on board two stratospheric balloons and has tracked nearby aircraft by receiving their Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) transmissions. Air traffic worldwide is facing increasing congestion. It is predicted that daily European flight volumes will more than double by 2030 compared to 2009 volumes. ADS-B is an air traffic management system being used to mitigate air traffic congestion. Each aircraft is equipped with both a GPS receiver and an ADS-B transponder. The transponder transmits an equipped aircraft's unique identifier, position, heading, and velocity once per second. The ADS-B transmissions can then be received by ground stations for use in traditional air traffic management. Airspace not monitored by these ground stations or other traditional means remains uncontrolled and poorly monitored. A constellation of space-based ADS-B receivers could close these gaps and provide global air traffic monitoring. By flying an ADS-B receiver on a stratospheric balloon, I-BATE has served as a precursor to a constellation of ADS-B-equipped Earth-orbiting satellites. From the ～30 km balloon altitude, I-BATE tracked aircraft ranging up to 850 km. The experiment has served as a proof of concept for space-based air traffic management and supports a technology readiness level 6 of space-based ADS-B reception.     

Space traffic control: a view of the future

This paper provides an overview of a system for providing reliable, ongoing, timely situational awareness services to satellite operators. Such services would include close approach warnings, warnings of potential radio frequency interference, and other offerings designed to help make operators aware of possible threats to the safe operation of their spacecraft and measures they can take to lessen these threats. The paper discusses current trends, proposes operational requirements, and speculates on the type of organization that may emerge to provide space traffic control services. It highlights how the detailed information required for such services may affect the evolution of the use of space.     

航天器空间环境及效应监测数据集成化管理与处理系统

空间环境与效应监测数据集成化管理与快速处理是保证航天器在轨安全的重要依据.文章基于航天器空间环境与效应监测数据管理与处理系统的功能要求,给出了系统的组成、架构和数据处理流程.该系统集成了航天器空间环境与效应监测数据的管理、处理、综合分析、参数标定和可视化显示功能,能够实现电子、质子、总剂量、原子氧、温度、表面电位、污染...     

Dream project: Applications of earth observations to disaster risk management

The field of disaster risk management is relatively new and takes a structured approach to managing uncertainty related to the threat of natural and man-made disasters. Disaster risk management consists primarily of risk assessment and the development of strategies to mitigate disaster risk. This paper will discuss how increasing both Earth observation data and information technology capabilities can contribute to disaster risk management, particularly in Belize. The paper presents the results and recommendations of a project conducted by an international and interdisciplinary team of experts at the 2009 session of the International Space University in NASA Ames Research Center (California, USA). The aim is to explore the combination of current, planned and potential space-aided, airborne, and ground-based Earth observation tools, the emergence of powerful new web-based and mobile data management tools, and how this combination can support and improve the emerging field of disaster risk management. The starting point of the project was the World Bank’s Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) program, focused in Central America. This program was used as a test bed to analyze current space technologies used in risk management and develop new strategies and tools to be applied in other regions around the world.     

Small missions: exploiting the opportunities

This is an edited part of a report by the European consortium Eurospace on the potential for the continent of small missions. A growing feature of the space market for communications, Earth observations and science and technology development, they represent both a threat of missing an important future market and an opportunity to develop a new capability offering better value for money and increasing the effectiveness of European space endeavours. A new pump-priming programme, the European Small Space Missions Initiative (ESSMI), is put forward to avoid the present vicious circle in which small missions are not proposed because of the lack of launch opportunities and launch vehicles are not developed because of lack of demand.     

The US civil space sector: alternate futures

The initiation of a new vision for exploration, as articulated by US President George W. Bush on 14 January 2004, has excited much interest. This article analyzes the dynamics and potential for changes in the processes and participants in future space policy and space exploration activities. It examines a range of possible alternative paths for NASA and the US government's space exploration activities, the international space community and the private sector in the articulation and pursuit of future space exploration endeavors. It concludes that the new vision for exploration brings about both an opportunity and indeed a necessity for movement towards new and innovative methods and institutions for the effective conduct of multidimensional and multilateral space exploration activities in the future.     

航天国际合作项目进度风险管理研究

文章针对航天国际合作项目的发展趋势,对其管理模式进行了对比分析,指出新模式对项目计划和风险管理提出的新要求,对航天国际合作项目的工作分解结构、进度管理和风险管理的关联性进行了描述,提出基于风险管理的进度管理体系结构和将风险纳入计划管理体系的工作流程,并给出航天国际合作项目进度管理的有效解决方案。     

The IAA Cosmic Study on space traffic management

This is a slightly edited version of the IAA's recently published interdisciplinary and international study on managing the traffic—of all manifestations—in outer space. The study examines the requirements and prospects for managing space traffic in the future and provides a thorough analysis of the status of ways and means of doing so, as well as a comprehensive to-do list for organizations like COPUOS and ICAO.     

The relevance of economic data in the decision-making process for orbital launch vehicle programs,a U.S. perspective

Over the past fifteen years, major U.S. initiatives for the development of new launch vehicles have been remarkably unsuccessful. The list is long: NLI, SLI, and X-33, not to mention several cancelled programs aimed at high speed airplanes (NASP, HSCT) which would share some similar technological problems.The economic aspects of these programs are equally as important to their success as are the technical aspects. In fact, by largely ignoring economic realities in the decisions to undertake these programs and in subsequent management decisions, space agencies (and their commercial partners) have inadvertently contributed to the eventual demise of these efforts.The transportation revolution that was envisaged by the promises of these programs has never occurred. Access to space is still very expensive; reliability of launch vehicles has remained constant over the years; and market demand has been relatively low, volatile and slow to develop. The changing international context of the industry (launching overcapacity, etc.) has also worked against the investment in new vehicles in the U.S. Today, unless there are unforeseen technical breakthroughs, orbital space access is likely to continue as it has been with high costs and market stagnation.Space exploration will require significant launching capabilities. The details of the future needs are not yet well defined. But, the question of the launch costs, the overall demand for vehicles, and the size and type of role that NASA will play in the overall launch market is likely to influence the industry. This paper will emphasize the lessons learned from the economic and management perspective from past launch programs, analyze the issues behind the demand for launches, and project the challenges that NASA will face as only one new customer in a very complex market situation. It will be important for NASA to make launch vehicle decisions based as much on economic considerations as it does on solving new technical challenges.     

The relevance of economic data in the decision-making process for orbital launch vehicle programs, a U.S. perspective

Over the past fifteen years, major U.S. initiatives for the development of new launch vehicles have been remarkably unsuccessful. The list is long: NLI, SLI, and X-33, not to mention several cancelled programs aimed at high speed airplanes (NASP, HSCT) which would share some similar technological problems.The economic aspects of these programs are equally as important to their success as are the technical aspects. In fact, by largely ignoring economic realities in the decisions to undertake these programs and in subsequent management decisions, space agencies (and their commercial partners) have inadvertently contributed to the eventual demise of these efforts.The transportation revolution that was envisaged by the promises of these programs has never occurred. Access to space is still very expensive; reliability of launch vehicles has remained constant over the years; and market demand has been relatively low, volatile and slow to develop. The changing international context of the industry (launching overcapacity, etc.) has also worked against the investment in new vehicles in the U.S. Today, unless there are unforeseen technical breakthroughs, orbital space access is likely to continue as it has been with high costs and market stagnation.Space exploration will require significant launching capabilities. The details of the future needs are not yet well defined. But, the question of the launch costs, the overall demand for vehicles, and the size and type of role that NASA will play in the overall launch market is likely to influence the industry. This paper will emphasize the lessons learned from the economic and management perspective from past launch programs, analyze the issues behind the demand for launches, and project the challenges that NASA will face as only one new customer in a very complex market situation. It will be important for NASA to make launch vehicle decisions based as much on economic considerations as it does on solving new technical challenges.     

交通流特性参数的识别与测量

提出一种用于交通流管理控制系统中交通流特性参数自动检测的新办法 ,介绍该方法的基本原理、识别模型及据此方法研制成功的在线实时智能检测系统的实验结果。这个系统较好地应用了模式识别技术 ,故不仅能自动区分机动车与非机动车 ,判别车型 ,准确地检测出机动车流特性参数 ,而且能自动准确地检测出非机动车 (自行车 )群体流量。此系统样机现场连续运行 3年多 ,已获满意结果     

Time is of the essence: making space law more effective

Traditionally, international legal rules have been established through the adoption of treaties by states, and the five space treaties adopted in the 1960s and 1970s are no exception. Accordingly, the recent proposals for overcoming problems related to the management of space activities have often envisioned the conclusion of new treaties, even a general convention, on space law. However, the process of setting norms through international treaties has certain severe weaknesses, ones affecting space law as much as, if not more than, other fields. These include the lamentably common time lag between drafting, adoption, and entry into force of international standards. Even if states manage to agree on certain provisions, by the time accords are implemented, the problems in question may have reached entirely new and different proportions and strategies that made sense when first proposed already represent ‘too little, too late’. This paper ponders the chances of making norms of international space law operative faster as well as the possibility of creating instruments whose provisions can readily accommodate changing conditions.     

Human exploration of Mars

The human exploration of Mars has the potential to return a rich harvest of scientific information about that planet, its possible past biological history and the prospects for future habitation by Earthly life. The realization of that potential will require new approaches and new technologies--a whole new paradigm in space exploration. Picture yourself exploring the surface of Mars, where your task involves conducting a detailed investigation of features larger than the United States in order to uncover a record of planetary history spanning over four billion years.     

We the people: Consequences of the revolution in the management of space applications

The creation of Google Earth has initiated a new market for space imaging with hundreds of millions of potential customers. The distribution of data could replace their production as the driving factor in the development of the image business, up to the point where the managers of the flow of information would control and finance the space system, as operators do with satcoms.