A complexity-based risk assessment of low-cost planetary missions: when is a mission too fast and too cheap?

Under constrained budgets and rigid schedules, NASA and industry have greatly increased their utilization of small satellites to conduct low-cost planetary investigations. Recent failed small planetary science spacecraft such as Mars Polar Lander (MPL) and Mars Climate Orbiter (MCO), and impaired missions such as Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) have fueled the ongoing debate on whether NASA's “Faster, Better, Cheaper” (FBC) approach is working. Several noteworthy failures of earth-orbiting missions have occurred as well including Lewis and the Wide-field Infrared Experiment (WIRE). While recent studies have observed that FBC has resulted in lower costs and shorter development times, these benefits may have been achieved at the expense of lowering probability of success. One question remaining to be answered is when is a mission “too fast and too cheap” that it is prone to failure? This paper assesses NASA FBC missions in terms of a complexity index measured against development time and spacecraft cost. A comparison of relative failure rates of recent planetary and earth-orbiting missions are presented, and conclusions regarding dependence on system complexity are drawn.     

Deorbiting with electrodynamic tethers: comparison between different tether configurations

Electrodynamic tethers have been recently proposed for satellite and rocket upper stage deorbiting to mitigate the debris problem at Low Earth Orbits (LEOs). The deorbiting performance of several electrodynamic tethers, where the electron collection from the ionosphere is obtained with either simple bare wires or bare wires terminated with conducting spherical collectors, was analyzed and compared. Our results indicate that the use of the spherical collectors at the positive termination of the system significantly enhances the deorbiting capabilities of the electrodynamic bare tethers.     

Benefits and risks of using electrodynamic tethers to de-orbit spacecraft

By using electrodynamic drag to greatly increase the orbital decay rate, an electrodynamic space tether can remove spent or dysfunctional spacecraft from low Earth orbit (LEO) rapidly and safely. Moreover, the low mass requirements of such tether devices make them highly advantageous compared to conventional rocket-based de-orbit systems. However, a tether system is much more vulnerable to space debris impacts than a typical spacecraft and its design must be proved to be safe up to a certain confidence level before being adopted for potential applications. To assess space debris related concerns, in March 2001 a new task (Action Item 19.1) on the “Potential Benefits and Risks of Using Electrodynamic Tethers for End-of-life De-orbit of LEO Spacecraft” was defined by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). Two tests were proposed to compute the fatal impact rate of meteoroids and orbital debris on space tethers in circular orbits, at different altitudes and inclinations, as a function of the tether diameter to assess the survival probability of an electrodynamic tether system during typical de-orbiting missions. IADC members from three agencies, the Italian Space Agency (ASI), the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), participated in the study and different computational approaches were specifically developed within the framework of the IADC task. This paper summarizes the content of the IADC AI 19.1 Final Report. In particular, it introduces the potential benefits and risks of using tethers in space, it describes the assumptions made in the study plan, it compares and discusses the results obtained by ASI, JAXA and NASA for the two tests proposed. Some general conclusions and recommendations are finally extrapolated from this massive and intensive piece of research.     

空间碎片减缓策略效果仿真

根据机构间空间碎片协调委员会(IADC)和欧空局(ESA)的空间碎片减缓要求,在建立航天发射、爆炸和碰撞模型,以及碎片演化机制的基础上,对常规发射(BAU)、禁止在轨爆炸(NO-EX)和全面减缓(MIT)三种空间碎片减缓策略条件下,对2000~2100年空间碎片环境进行了仿真计算。结果表明,禁止航天器在轨爆炸、对失效的卫星和火箭上面级实施离轨操作,以及在航天器的发射和运行中不产生或抛弃分离物等减缓措施是限制空间碎片数量增长的有效方法。     

空间碎片环境现状与主动移除技术

概述了空间碎片环境现状和对航天活动的影响,讨论了空间碎片主动移除对保持空间碎片环境稳定的必要性。空间碎片研究重心先从防护转向减缓,再转到主动移除,最终是清洁空间。评述了空间碎片主动移除技术现状,指出天基激光主动移除空间碎片技术具有很好的工程应用潜力。     

空间碎片国际机制发展趋势分析

文章通过对空间碎片国际机制(多边谈判机制)的分析,指出其发展趋势,从而为中国参加相关谈判工作提供参考。空间碎片国际机制的发展已呈现出明显的政策化、法律化和制度化的趋势。无论是从外空利益争夺、外空战略实现,还是从中国航天事业可持续发展、中国航天立法体系完善的角度来讲,积极参加空间碎片技术合作与规则制定的国际谈判都具有重要意义。从国内建设上来看,中国应尽快制定“技术—政策(战略)—法律”三位一体的解决思路和具体方案;从国际层面看,可以借鉴美国一直坚持和贯彻的“技术—政策—国内规则—国际软法—国际法”外空策略,来开展空间碎片减缓和清除等方面的技术与规则制定的合作。     

中国空间碎片研究的进展

首先对"十五"期间中国在空间碎片研究领域取得的主要进展进行了综述,涉及空间碎片监测预警、航天器防护和空间碎片减缓三个方面;然后对"十一五"期间中国空间碎片研究的主要内容进行了介绍。     

航天器反应式碎片规避动作规划方法

提出一种航天器反应式碎片规避动作规划方法，首先以扰动流体动态系统(IFDS)算法作为动作规划的基础算法，通过其中的总和扰动矩阵对航天器的轨道速度矢量进行修正，实现轨道机动规避；然后，建立基于双延迟深度确定性策略梯度(TD3)深度强化学习算法的反应式动作规划方法，通过TD3在线优化IFDS规划参数，实现对碎片群的“状态-动作”最优、快速规避决策。在此基础上，将优先级经验回放和渐进式学习策略引入该方法中，提升训练效率。最后，仿真结果表明，所提方法可使航天器安全规避多发、突发、动态且形状各异的空间碎片群，且具有较好的实时性。     

Santini memorial lecture: Space Challenges and Opportunities for Human Benefit

Since the beginning of the Space Age the public was fascinated by the great challenges that needed to be overcome, but also inspired by the potential benefits that might arise from the utilization of space systems. This lecture examines the major technological breakthroughs that were necessary for many of the key space programs to succeed, and postulates the immediate and future benefits to humanity that became evident as a result of these advances. A dozen programs ranging from Sputnik and Apollo to the Global Navigation Satellite System are reviewed in view of the technical challenges in elements such as propulsion, power, structures, computing, guidance and control, spectrum management and payloads. Challenges in the cost of space launch, large structures, debris mitigation, humans in space and commercial promise are discussed and opportunities for improvements in the future are postulated.     

Synergistic use of debris environment models for flexible, very-long term projections

Long-term debris environment projections are of great importance for assessing the necessity and effectiveness of debris mitigation measures. Two types of models have been developed to predict these environments. Environment evolution models like the EVOLVE code are using detailed mission model data to input spacecraft, upper stages, and operational debris into specific orbits at specific times; debris from fragmentations are placed in orbits defined by the state vector of the fragmenting object(s) and the breakup model. The second type, typified by the CHAIN program, uses a particle-in-box model that bins the environment in size and altitude rather than following the orbit evolution of individual debris fragments. A 3-Step approach using both the EVOLVE and CHAIN model in a synergistic way was used to increase the reliability of long term environment projections. EVOLVE historical projections 1957–1995 could be validated by comparison to measurements. The comparison of 100 year projection runs of EVOLVE and CHAIN for different traffic scenarios showed a good agreement. In this paper, for the first time, CHAIN projections up to 10,000 years, based on validated boundary conditions derived by EVOLVE are presented, indicating clearly the need of early implementation of effective mitigation measures to prevent exponential population growth by collisional cascading effects.     

Comparative cost and utility analysis of monolith and fractionated spacecraft using failure and replacement Markov models

Failure of a single component on-board a spacecraft can compromise the integrity of the whole system and put its entire capability and value at risk. Part of this fragility is intrinsic to the current dominant design of space systems, which is mainly a single, large, monolithic system. The space industry has therefore recently proposed a new architectural concept termed fractionation, or co-located space-based network (SBN). By physically distributing functions in multiple orbiting modules wirelessly connected, this architecture allows the sharing of resources on-orbit (e.g., data processing, downlinks). It has been argued that SBNs could offer significant advantages over the traditional monolithic architecture as a result of the network structure and the separation of sources of risk in the spacecraft. Careful quantitative analyses are still required to identify the conditions under which SBNs can “outperform” monolithic spacecraft. In this work, we develop Markov models of module failures and replacement to quantitatively compare the lifecycle cost and utility of both architectures. We run Monte-Carlo simulations of the models, and discuss important trends and invariants. We then investigate the impact of our model parameters on the existence of regions in the design space in which SBNs “outperform” the monolith spacecraft on a cost, utility, and utility per unit cost basis. Beyond the life of one single spacecraft, this paper compares the cost and utility implications of maintaining each architecture type through successive replacements.     

A Review of Hypervelocity Debris Testing at the Air Force Research Laboratory

In this paper, we describe a compact, low cost, fast turn-around-time technique used at the Air Force Research Laboratory to study hypervelocity debris impact effects on spacecraft structures and components. The technique described was used to study debris effects in the areas of: shock physics, debris-produced contamination, chemical analyses of the impact ejecta and debris initiated spacecraft discharge. Examples of research results obtained with the technique are presented and illustrate problems encountered in the field of space debris effects on spacecraft.     

Mars Express spacecraft: design and development solutions for affordable planetary missions

The spacecraft designed to support the ESA Mars Express mission and its science payloads is customized around an existing avionics well suited to environmental and operational constraints of deep-space interplanetary missions. The reuse of the avionics initially developed for the Rosetta cometary program thanks to an adequate ESA cornerstone program budget paves the way for affordable planetary missions.The costs and schedule benefits inherited from reuse of up-to-date avionics solutions validated in the frame of other programs allows to focus design and development efforts of a new mission over the specific areas which requires customization, such as spacecraft configuration and payload resources. This design approach, combined with the implementation of innovative development and management solutions have enabled to provide the Mars Express mission with an highly capable spacecraft for a remarkably low cost. The different spacecraft subsystems are all based on adequate design solutions. The development plan ensures an exhaustive spacecraft verification in order to perform the mission at minimum risk. New management schemes contribute to maintain the mission within its limited funding.Experience and heritage gained on this program will allow industry to propose to Scientists and Agencies high performance, low-cost solutions for the ambitious Mars Exploration Program of the forthcoming decade.     

Collision Risk Mitigation in Geostationary Orbit

The short- and long-term effects of spacecraft explosions, as a function of the end-of-life re-orbit altitude above the geostationary orbit (GEO), were analyzed in terms of their additional contribution to the debris flux in the GEO ring. The simulated debris clouds were propagated for 72yrs, taking into account all the relevant orbital perturbations.The results obtained show that 6–7 additional explosions in GEO would be sufficient, in the long term, to double the current collision risk with sizable objects in GEO. Unfortunately, even if spacecraft were to re-orbit between 300 and 500km above GEO, this would not significantly improve the situation. In fact, an altitude increase of at least 2000km would have to be adopted to reduce by one order of magnitude the long-term risk of collision among geostationary satellites and explosion fragments. The optimal debris mitigation strategy should be a compromise between the reliability and effectiveness of spacecraft end-of-life passivation, the re-orbit altitude and the acceptable debris background in the GEO ring. However, for as long as the re-orbit altitudes currently used are less than 500km above GEO, new spacecraft explosions must be avoided in order to preserve the geostationary environment over the long term.     

Reconfigurable dual feed antenna for direct broadcast satellites

Direct Broadcast Satellites covering large countries such as Canada, require more than one spacecraft, located at different orbital positions, as well as the use of multiple shaped beams. This would minimize eclipse requirements over several time zones, provide increased capacity by frequency reuse and permit the use of cost effective ground receivers.Two such satellites are envisaged, one covering Eastern Canada, the other Western Canada, using two different sets of three highly shaped beams. This paper is the result of a feasibility study of a satellite antenna designed such that while at either orbital location it can be reconfigured in orbit, by ground command and hence can save the cost of one additional spare spacecraft.An offset parabolic reflector is proposed for the 12 GHz downlink, with a switched “dual feed” structure, consisting of two separate but contiguous sets of pyramidal horns and their associated beam forming networks (BFN). Only one BFN set is used at any one orbital location. Detailed radiation patterns demonstrate good beamshaping capabilities, with coverage efficiencies of the order of 94%. Other considerations such as the effect of orbital locations, gain equalization and TWTA standardization are discussed.It is concluded that a satellite, reconfigurable in orbit with a “dual feed” antenna, is feasible and cost effective, for a DBS spare as well as for the main spacecraft.     

The cost benefits of the Spacelab system to scientific investigations and space applications

In the past, one of the major problems in performing scientific investigations in space has been the high cost of developing, integrating, and transporting scientific experiments into space. The limited resources of unmanned spacecraft, coupled with the requirements for completely automated operations, was another factor contributing to the high costs of scientific research in space. In previous space missions after developing, integrating and transporting costly experiments into space and obtaining successful data, the experiment facility and spacecraft have been lost forever, because they could not be returned to earth. The objective of this paper is to present how the utilization of the Spacelab System will result in cost benefits to the scientific community, and significantly reduce the cost of space operations from previous space programs.The following approach was used to quantify the cost benefits of using the Spacelab System to greatly reduce the operational costs of scientific research in space. An analysis was made of the series of activities required to combine individual scientific experiments into an integrated payload that is compatible with the Space Transportation System (STS). These activities, including Shuttle and Spacelab integration, communications and data processing, launch support requirements, and flight operations were analyzed to indicate how this new space system, when compared with previous space systems, will reduce the cost of space research. It will be shown that utilization of the Spacelab modular design, standard payload interfaces, optional Mission Dependent Equipment (MDE), and standard services, such as the Experiment Computer Operating System (ECOS), allow the user many more services than previous programs, at significantly lower costs. In addition, the missions will also be analyzed to relate their cost benefit contributions to space scientific research.The analytical tools that are being developed at MSFC in the form of computer programs that can rapidly analyze experiment to Spacelab interfaces will be discussed to show how these tools allow the Spacelab integrator to economically establish the payload compatibility of a Spacelab mission.The information used in this paper has been assimilated from the actual experience gained in integrating over 50 highly complex, scientific experiments that will fly on the Spacelab first and second missions. In addition, this paper described the work being done at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) to define the analytical integration tools and techniques required to economically and efficiently integrate a wide variety of Spacelab payloads and missions. The conclusions reached in this study are based on the actual experience gained at MSFC in its roles of Spacelab integration and mission managers for the first three Spacelab missions. The results of this paper will clearly show that the cost benefits of the Spacelab system will greatly reduce the costs and increase the opportunities for scientific investigation from space.     

Simplified parametric cost trade-offs in satellite system design

In this paper, a parametric cost model for the space segment of a meteorological satellite system is derived and exercised to provide insight into the major economic trade-offs affecting the choice of the satellite's design life and replacement strategy. Trade-offs involving replacement strategy include launch via an expendable booster versus launch via the Space Shuttle; and recovery, repair, and reuse of a failed satellite versus simple replacement with no reuse.

The sensitivities of space segment costs to design life, launch costs, replacement costs, and refurbishment costs are examined with explicit inclusion of nonrecurring and recurring costs.

The results from an application of the model indicate that routine spacecraft retrieval and reuse of a modestly expensive spacecraft is not a significant economic benefit and that design lifetimes of three or four years are the best choice.     

Wholesale debris removal from LEO

Recent advances in electrodynamic propulsion make it possible to seriously consider wholesale removal of large debris from LEO for the first time since the beginning of the space era. Cumulative ranking of large groups of the LEO debris population and general limitations of passive drag devices and rocket-based removal systems are analyzed. A candidate electrodynamic debris removal system is discussed that can affordably remove all debris objects over 2 kg from LEO in 7 years. That means removing more than 99% of the collision-generated debris potential in LEO. Removal is performed by a dozen 100-kg propellantless vehicles that react against the Earth's magnetic field. The debris objects are dragged down and released into short-lived orbits below ISS. As an alternative to deorbit, some of them can be collected for storage and possible in-orbit recycling. The estimated cost per kilogram of debris removed is a small fraction of typical launch costs per kilogram. These rates are low enough to open commercial opportunities and create a governing framework for wholesale removal of large debris objects from LEO.     

卫星空间辐射效应及防护技术飞行试验初步设想

文章分析了国内外卫星空间辐射效应飞行试验的现状和发展趋势,根据我国卫星空间辐射效应及防护技术的具体情况,对卫星空间辐射效应及防护技术空间飞行试验的开展提出了建议。     

微小碎片对航天器舷窗玻璃损伤状况的跟踪研究

空间微小碎片环境比较复杂,其来源包括人为产生的碎片及微流星体。空间微小碎片不仅速度较高,而且数量庞大。它们频繁撞击航天器外表面,包括舷窗部位,特别是对航天飞机舷窗已造成巨大危害,使长期服役的国际空间站舷窗玻璃存在安全隐患。文章简要介绍了空间微小碎片对航天飞机和空间站舷窗玻璃的损伤状况,以及NASA对此做出的改进措施,这些跟踪研究成果可为我国长寿命、高可靠航天器舷窗结构设计提供参考依据。