基于解体事件的空间碎片轨道演化算法研究

针对航天器解体事件所生成的空间碎片的演化过程,进行了数学分析,确定了新生成的空间碎片的速度增量,在该增量作用下碎片轨道会发生变更,本文根据该增量得出了空间碎片在轨道变更后的轨道根数,分析了在大气阻力摄动作用下,空间碎片的数目和轨道分布的演化情况,给出了相关结果,结果表明此算法可行。     

非相干散射雷达的空间碎片参数统计分析

采用匹配滤波方法处理了非相干散射雷达的原始采样数据(时长约7h), 共检测到394个空间碎片, 估算了其轨道高度、径向速度、散射截面、等效直径及径向加速度等参数, 统计分析了这些参数的变化特征, 得到穿过雷达 波束的空间碎片流量约为60h-1, 信噪比为10～1000, 空间碎片主要分布在600～1100km和1400～1600km两个高度区间, 散射截面 10-5～10-2m2, 等效直径3～10cm, 径向速度-1.5～1.5km·s-1, 径向加速度20～90m·s-2, 这对于中国的空间碎片探测与研究具有重要参考意义.      

A Partially Orthogonal EnKF approach to atmospheric density estimation using orbital debris

A key requirement for accurate trajectory prediction and space situational awareness is knowledge of how non-conservative forces affect space object motion. These forces vary temporally and spatially, and are driven by the underlying behavior of space weather particularly in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Existing trajectory prediction algorithms adjust space weather models based on calibration satellite observations. However, lack of sufficient data and mismodeling of non-conservative forces cause inaccuracies in space object motion prediction, especially for uncontrolled debris objects. The uncontrolled nature of debris objects makes them particularly sensitive to the variations in space weather. Our research takes advantage of this behavior by utilizing observations of debris objects to infer the space environment parameters influencing their motion.The hypothesis of this research is that it is possible to utilize debris objects as passive, indirect sensors of the space environment. We focus on estimating atmospheric density and its spatial variability to allow for more precise prediction of LEO object motion. The estimated density is parameterized as a grid of values, distributed by latitude and local sidereal time over a spherical shell encompassing Earth at a fixed altitude of 400 km. The position and velocity of each debris object are also estimated. A Partially Orthogonal Ensemble Kalman Filter (POEnKF) is used for assimilation of space object measurements to estimate density.For performance comparison, the scenario characteristics (number of objects, measurement cadence, etc.) are based on a sensor tasking campaign executed for the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model project. The POEnKF analysis details spatial comparisons between the true and estimated density fields, and quantifies the improved accuracy in debris object motion predictions due to more accurate drag force models from density estimates. It is shown that there is an advantage to utilizing multiple debris objects instead of just one object. Although the work presented here explores the POEnKF performance when using information from only 16 debris objects, the research vision is to utilize information from all routinely observed debris objects. Overall, the filter demonstrates the ability to estimate density to within a threshold of accuracy dependent on measurement/sensor error. In the case of a geomagnetic storm, the filter is able to track the storm and provide more accurate density estimates than would be achieved using a simple exponential atmospheric density model or MSIS Atmospheric Model (when calm conditions are assumed).     

空间碎片环境工程模式参数分析

为了评估空间碎片对航天器造成的危害 ,必须建立空间碎片环境工程模式。文章介绍了空间碎片环境的特点及其工程模式表征方法 ,并比较、分析了几种主要空间碎片环境工程模式的参数 ;从数学建模及风险评估应用的需求出发 ,提出了空间碎片环境工程模式参数的建议方案     

Debris flux comparisons from the Goldstone Radar,Haystack Radar,and Hax Radar prior,during, and after the last solar maximum

The continual monitoring of the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment using highly sensitive radars is essential for an accurate characterization of these dynamic populations. Debris populations are continually evolving since there are new debris sources, previously unrecognized debris sources, and debris loss mechanisms that are dependent on the dynamic space environment. Such radar data are used to supplement, update, and validate existing orbital debris models. NASA has been utilizing radar observations of the debris environment for over a decade from three complementary radars: the NASA JPL Goldstone radar, the MIT Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) Long Range Imaging Radar (known as the Haystack radar), and the MIT/LL Haystack Auxiliary radar (HAX). All of these systems are highly sensitive radars that operate in a fixed staring mode to statistically sample orbital debris in the LEO environment. Each of these radars is ideally suited to measure debris within a specific size region. The Goldstone radar generally observes objects with sizes from 2 mm to 1 cm. The Haystack radar generally measures from 5 mm to several meters. The HAX radar generally measures from 2 cm to several meters. These overlapping size regions allow a continuous measurement of cumulative debris flux versus diameter from 2 mm to several meters for a given altitude window. This is demonstrated for all three radars by comparing the debris flux versus diameter over 200 km altitude windows for 3 nonconsecutive years from 1998 to 2003. These years correspond to periods before, during, and after the peak of the last solar cycle. Comparing the year to year flux from Haystack for each of these altitude regions indicate statistically significant changes in subsets of the debris populations. Potential causes of these changes are discussed. These analysis results include error bars that represent statistical sampling errors.     

航天器与空间碎片的混合编队重构控制与应用

针对空间碎片清理问题,提出了一种利用航天器与空间碎片混合编队队形重构控制技术捕获碎片的方法。首先,分析了地/月—日系L2拉格朗日平动点附近的限制性三体环境,并建立了编队卫星相对运动动力学模型;其次,提出了以太阳光压力作为航天器与空间碎片编队队形重构的控制力,实现各从星接近空间碎片的目的;最后,设计了基于线性二次型的最优控制器,并在Matlab/Simulink环境下进行仿真实验。仿真结果表明该方法可控制从星到达期望的位置(空间碎片的位置),且太阳帆板的姿态变化在可控范围内,进而证明了该方案可以应用于复杂空间环境下的碎片清理任务。     

Space debris mitigation strategies and practices in geosynchronous transfer orbits

Missions to geosynchronous orbits remain one of the most important elements of space launch traffic, accounting for 40% of all missions to Earth orbit and beyond during the four-year period 2000–2003. The vast majority of these missions leave one or more objects in geosynchronous transfer orbits (GTOs), contributing on a short-term or long-term basis to the space debris population. National and international space debris mitigation guidelines seek to curtail the accumulation of debris in orbits which penetrate the regions of low Earth orbit and of geosynchronous orbit. The orbital lifetime of objects in GTO can be greatly influenced by the initial values of perigee, inclination, and right ascension of the orbital plane, leading to orbital lifetimes of from less than one month to more than 100 years. An examination of the characteristic GTOs employed by launch vehicles from around the world has been conducted. The consequences of using perigees above 300 km and super-synchronous apogees, typically above 40,000 km, have been identified. In addition, the differences in orbital behavior of launch vehicle stages and mission-related debris in GTOs have been investigated. Greater coordination and cooperation between space launch service providers and spacecraft designers and owners could significantly improve overall compliance with guidelines to mitigate the accumulation of debris in Earth orbit.     

匹配滤波方法在非相干散射雷达测量空间碎片中的应用

利用2010年3月25日欧洲非相干散射雷达的常规电离层探测数据, 分析了实测数据中接收功率突变的现象. 高度发生在500 km以上的功率突变一般不是由于地球物理影响产生的, 而要归因于卫星或空间碎片. 采用匹配滤波方法实现了对空间碎片的探测和提取, 利用相干积累的方法提高了信噪比, 共获得363个碎片, 得到了碎片随高度和时间的分布. 结果表明, 碎片高度分布主要集中在800 km左右, 与欧洲非相干散射组织现有的碎片数据具有一致性.      

Radioactive satellites: Intact reentry and breakup by debris impact

There is a substantial mass of radioactive material in nuclear reactors or radioisotope thermal generators (RTGs) in orbit about the earth. This paper examines the reentry of intact nuclear fuel cores and RTGs and the fragmentation and subsequent radioactive debris cloud deposition and evolution resulting from the impact of orbital debris upon an orbiting reactor, fuel core, or RTG. To assess the intact reentry, decay rates and a predicted decay date using historical and projected orbital decay data, are estimated. The current NASA debris environment model is utilized to estimate impact rates and debris cloud evolution of a fragmentation event. Results of these analyses are compared and concepts are tendered which would tend to minimize the radiological debris hazard to personnel and structures both on the earth's surface and in low earth orbit.     

Recent results on the Venus atmosphere from pioneer Venus radio occultations

Radio occultation measurements of the temperature structure of the Venus atmosphere have been obtained during seven occultation “seasons” extending from December 1978 to December 1983. Approximately 123 vertical profiles of temperature from about 40 km to about 85 km altitudes have been derived. Since these measurements cover latitudes from both poles to the equator, they have shown the latitudinal dependence of thermal structure. There is a smooth transition from the troposphere to the mesosphere at latitudes below about 45°, with the tropopause at about 56 km. The troposphere then rises to about 62 km in the “collar cloud” region between about 60° and 80° latitude, where a strong temperature inversion (up to 30 K) is present. In the polar areas, 80°–90°, the mesosphere becomes isothermal and there is no inversion. This latitudinal behavior is related to the persistent circulation pattern, in which a predominantly zonal retrograde motion at latitudes below 45° gradually changes to a circumpolar vortex at the “collar cloud” latitudes. Indeed, the radio occultation data have been used in a cyclostrophic balance model to derive zonal winds in the Venus atmosphere, which showed a mid-latitude (50°–55°) jet with a speed of about 120–140 ms^?1 at about 70 km altitude /1,2/. The observations obtained in 1983 and 1984 have shown that above the tropopause there is considerable temporal variability in the detailed thermal structure, suggesting that the persistent circulation pattern is subject to weather-like variability.     

Dynamical cartography of Earth satellite orbits

We have carried out a numerical investigation of the coupled gravitational and non-gravitational perturbations acting on Earth satellite orbits in an extensive grid, covering the whole circumterrestrial space, using an appropriately modified version of the SWIFT symplectic integrator, which is suitable for long-term ($～$120?years) integrations of the non-averaged equations of motion. Hence, we characterize the long-term dynamics and the phase-space structure of the Earth-orbiter environment, starting from low altitudes ($～$400?km) and going up to the GEO region and beyond. This investigation was done in the framework of the EC-funded “ReDSHIFT” project, with the purpose of enabling the definition of passive debris removal strategies, based on the use of physical mechanisms inherent in the complex dynamics of the problem (i.e., resonances). Accordingly, the complicated interactions among resonances, generated by different perturbing forces (i.e., lunisolar gravity, solar radiation pressure, tesseral harmonics in the geopotential) are accurately depicted in our results, where we can identify the regions of phase space where the motion is regular and long-term stable and regions for which eccentricity growth and even instability due to chaotic behavior can emerge. The results are presented in an “atlas” of dynamical stability maps for different orbital zones, with a particular focus on the (drag-free) range of semimajor axes, where the perturbing effects of the Earth’s oblateness and lunisolar gravity are of comparable order. In some regions, the overlapping of the predominant lunisolar secular and semi-secular resonances furnish a number of interesting disposal hatches at moderate to low eccentricity orbits. All computations were repeated for an increased area-to-mass ratio, simulating the case of a satellite equipped with an on-board, area-augmenting device. We find that this would generally promote the deorbiting process, particularly at the transition region between LEO and MEO. Although direct reentry from very low eccentricities is very unlikely in most cases of interest, we find that a modest “delta-v” ($\mathrm{\Delta }V$) budget would be enough for satellites to be steered into a relatively short-lived resonance and achieve reentry into the Earth’s atmosphere within reasonable timescales ($～$50?years).     

基于驻留时间比的近地空间碎片环境建模

为分析近地空间碎片的分布规律,提出了一种以碎片在空间网格内驻留时间为基础的碎片环境统计建模方法.该方法利用多项式拟合和求根方法统计碎片在空间网格内的停留时间,获取模型基础数据,并据此采用多项式预测、插值和时间序列分析等技术,综合分析空间碎片的分布与演化规律.给出了一个基于双行根数(TLE,Two Line Elements)数据的建模实例,该实例通过了ORDEM2000模型的对比验证,并获得了一些更精细的近地空间碎片环境特征.所得建模方法和分析结论可为长期运行的近地航天器轨道设计、碰撞风险评估及防护等提供技术支撑.     

Active space debris charging for contactless electrostatic disposal maneuvers

The remote charging of a passive object using an electron beam enables touchless re-orbiting of large space debris from geosynchronous orbit (GEO) using electrostatic forces. The advantage of this method is that it can operate with a separation distance of multiple craft radii, thus reducing the risk of collision. The charging of the tug–debris system to high potentials is achieved by active charge transfer using a directed electron beam. Optimal potential distributions using isolated- and coupled-sphere models are discussed. A simple charging model takes into account the primary electron beam current, ultra-violet radiation induced photoelectron emission, collection of plasma particles, secondary electron emission and the recapture of emitted particles. The results show that through active charging in a GEO space environment high potentials can be both achieved and maintained with about a 75% transfer efficiency. Further, the maximum electrostatic tractor force is shown to be insensitive to beam current levels. This latter later result is important when considering debris with unknown properties.     

空间系绳碎片碰撞生存能力研究

空间系绳结构和几何尺寸对其在复杂空间环境中抵抗碎片碰撞的能力有显著影响.本文根据系绳-碎片碰撞模型和泊松分布,计算了双股系绳和带状系绳被碎片割断的概率,分析了太空碎片对系绳生存能力可能造成的影响.双股系绳是由两条平行系绳每隔一段距离打结连接构成,带状系绳可视为一种横截面为矩形的特殊单股系绳.首先对单股系绳被碎片割断的概率进行建模,然后构建双股系绳和带状系绳生存能力函数,最后根据空间碎片环境模型,对比分析具有不同结构、不同尺寸的系绳的生存能力.仿真结果表明,相较于单股系绳,双股系绳和带状系绳的生存能力有明显提高.      

北极69°N和78°N空间碎片凝视探测的对比分析

利用北极69°N和78°N两套非相干散射雷达的首次空间碎片联合观测数据进行空间碎片参数（距离、速度、散射截面积、等效直径等）的对比分析,得出以下结论:两部雷达探测的碎片高度均主要分布在500～1100km和1400～1600km区间,但78°N雷达探测的碎片数量较多;空间碎片的径向速度均在-1.5～1.5km…-1区间,其中大部分为负值,说明在此次探测试验中碎片运动方向主要以远离雷达或地球为主;ESR雷达探测的空间碎片射截面积约为10-5～10-2m2,等效直径主要分布在4～10cm,而UHF雷达探测的空间碎片散射截面积约为10-6～10-2m2,等效直径主要分布在2～6cm,说明在同一高度上69°N雷达探测能力更强;经合理设置判据参数后得出重复检测次数,78°N雷达和69°N雷达分别有32次和14次重复检测,两部雷达共有4次重复检测.这些结果为空间碎片检测和建模提供了参考.      

Simulation of long-term rotational dynamics of large space debris: A TOPEX/Poseidon case study

Accurate knowledge of the rotational dynamics of a large space debris is crucial for space situational awareness (SSA), whether it be for accurate orbital predictions needed for satellite conjunction analyses or for the success of an eventual active debris removal mission charged with stabilization, capture and removal of debris from orbit. In this light, the attitude dynamics of an inoperative satellite of great interest to the space debris community, the joint French and American spacecraft TOPEX/Poseidon, is explored. A comparison of simulation results with observations obtained from high-frequency satellite range measurements is made, showing that the spacecraft is currently spinning about its minor principal axis in a stable manner. Predictions of the evolution of its attitude motion to 2030 are presented, emphasizing the uncertainty on those estimates due to internal energy dissipation, which could cause a change of its spin state in the future. The effect of solar radiation pressure and the eddy-current torque are investigated in detail, and insights into some of the satellite’s missing properties are provided. These results are obtained using a novel, open-source, coupled orbit-attitude propagation software, the Debris SPin/Orbit Simulation Environment (D-SPOSE), whose primary goal is the study of the long-term evolution of the attitude dynamics of large space debris.     

Hypervelocity impacts on HST solar arrays and the debris and meteoroids population

Accurate debris and meteoroid flux models are crucial for the design of manned and unmanned space missions. For the most abundant particle sizes smaller than a few millimetres, knowledge of the populations can only be gained from in situ detectors or the analysis of retrieved space hardware. The measurement of impact flux from exposed surfaces improves with increased surface area and exposure time.A post-flight impact investigation was initiated by the European Space Agency to record and analyse the impact fluxes and any potential resulting damage on the two flexible solar arrays of the Hubble Space Telescope. The arrays were deployed during the first Hubble Space Telescope servicing mission in December 1993 and retrieved in March 2002. They have a total exposed surface area of roughly 120 m², including 42 m² covered with solar cells. This new Hubble post-flight impact study follows a similar activity undertaken after the retrieval of one of the first solar arrays, in 1993. The earlier study provided the first opportunity for a numerical survey of damage to exposed surfaces from more than 600 km altitude, and of impacts from particles larger than 1 mm. The results have proven very valuable in validation of important flux model regimes. The second set of Hubble solar arrays has again provided an unrivalled opportunity to measure the meteoroid and debris environment, now sampled during a long interval in low Earth orbit, and to identify changes in the space debris environment since the previous survey. The retrieved solar array wings exhibit thousands of craters, many of which are visible to the naked eye. A few hundred impacts have completely penetrated the 0.7 mm thick array. The largest impact features are about 7–8 mm in diameter. The cover glass of the solar cells is particularly well suited to the recognition of small impact features by optical and electron microscopy. In this paper, we present the first results of the impact survey. Data upon the abundance of craters of specific measured size ranges are plotted as cumulative flux curves, and compared to the results of model predictions. The most significant change to the particle flux since 1993 is a decrease in the small debris population.     

Characterizing space debris longitude-dependent distribution based on RAAN perturbation rate

The space debris environment is one of the major threats against payloads. Space debris orbital distribution is of great importance for space debris environment modeling. Due to perturbation factors, the Right Ascension of Ascending Node (RAAN) of space objects changes consistently, causing regular rotation of the orbit plane around Earth’s axis. Based on the investigation of the RAAN perturbation rate of concerned objects, this paper proposes a RAAN discretization method in order to present the space debris longitude-dependent distribution. Combined with two line element (TLE) data provided by the US Space Surveillance Network, the estimated value from RAAN discretization method is compared with the real case. The results suggest that using only the initial orbital data at the beginning of the time interval of interest, the RAAN discretization method is able to provide reliable longitude distribution of concerned targets in the next following period. Furthermore, spacecraft cumulative flux against space debris is calculated in this paper. The results suggest that the relevance between spacecraft RAAN setup and flux output is much smaller for LEO targets than MEO targets, which corresponds with the theory analysis. Since the nonspherical perturbation is the major factor for RAAN variation, the RAAN perturbation rate has little connection with the size of orbital objects. In other words, the RAAN discretization method introduced in this paper also applies to space debris of different size range, proposing a possible suggestion for the improvement of space debris environment engineering models.     

Faster algorithm of debris cloud orbital character from spacecraft collision breakup

Space debris is polluting the space environment. Collision fragment is its important source. NASA standard breakup model, including size distributions, area-to-mass distributions, and delta velocity distributions, is a statistic experimental model used widely. The general algorithm based on the model is introduced. But this algorithm is difficult when debris quantity is more than hundreds or thousands. So a new faster algorithm for calculating debris cloud orbital lifetime and character from spacecraft collision breakup is presented first. For validating the faster algorithm, USA 193 satellite breakup event is simulated and compared with general algorithm. Contrast result indicates that calculation speed and efficiency of faster algorithm is very good. When debris size is in 0.01–0.05 m, the faster algorithm is almost a hundred times faster than general algorithm. And at the same time, its calculation precision is held well. The difference between corresponding orbital debris ratios from two algorithms is less than 1% generally.