Modeling international cooperation for space exploration

Space exploration into the twenty-first century is contingent upon the ability of states to forge an appropriate vehicle for international cooperation. A theoretical framework that explains international cooperation in space exploration is proposed. This framework encompasses scientific, technological, political, and economic initial conditions, state and nonstate political actors, and models of cooperation that explain how initial conditions and actors interact to realize cooperative outcomes. It is hypothesized that the prevailing initial conditions favor certain political actors over others which, in turn, promote a specific model of cooperation. Cooperative policy outcomes are examined and assessed vis-à-vis case studies of cooperation in space exploration. On this basis, policy recommendations that engender effective cooperative outcomes in space exploration are suggested.     

A new setting for international space cooperation?

The year 2004 could be seen as the turning point for the realignment of international space cooperation for the 21st century. At the very core of this readjustment, the US space exploration initiative strives to define a new scheme for such a broad array of aspects as international scientific cooperation, the role of the space industry and the organizational framework for international space applications. This paper argues that the success of this new outline of international space cooperation depends on several conditions. First, the US initiative needs to demonstrate its long-term continuity and reliability for international partners, which will depend to no small degree on the future of the ISS and its utilization for international research. Second, international cooperation between industrial partners will continue to need political frameworks and depend on a balanced handling of know-how partnerships. Third, cooperation in space applications will need a truly international structure to further its global acceptance and outreach.     

Modeling international cooperation in human space exploration for the twenty-first century.

The policy process of international cooperation in space exploration. including optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the twenty-first century, is modeled and examined in this study. In the optimistic scenario, international cooperation involves a balanced and interdependent distribution of capabilities between states, their respective national space agencies and communities of space scientists and space engineers. Cooperation is characterized by interstate participation in critical path components and joint research and development. In the pessimistic scenario, international cooperation is structured and dominated politically and economically by powerful states vis-a-vis weaker states. Cooperation is limited to coordination of separate nationally approved projects and augmentation of capabilities in noncritical path components. On the basis of these two scenarios, policy predictions and implications relevant to exploration missions in the twenty-first century, such as a human-tended lunar base and human missions to Mars, are presented and discussed.     

Prospects for international space cooperation in the Pacific Basin

This article examines the possible avenues of cooperation in space activity between nations of the Pacific Basin. It looks at possible memebers of a regional space organization and their areas of common interest. The European Space Agency is suggested as a model, and some of the useful lessons that could be learned from it, as well as significant differences between the European and Pacific regions, are discussed.     

Implementing international co-operation in space exploration

This article discusses the outcomes of an April 2005 workshop held at ISU in Strasbourg. Experts sought to tailor an international co-ordination mechanism that would achieve the classical benefits of international co-operation for the unique venture of space exploration. The mechanism they developed provides a permanent forum for those with vested interests in exploration (currently space agencies in key spacefaring nations) to exchange information about national plans and activities so as to build confidence in one another's programs and, to the extent they choose, to develop beneficial interdependencies. The product of this co-ordination effort would be a consolidated international exploration roadmap that would both inform and reflect national program decisions. The co-ordination mechanism would simultaneously involve, but in less central roles, other important interested parties (industry, the science community, other countries without current exploration programs), whose advice is important to the development of a consolidated roadmap. Recognizing that the stakeholders in exploration will almost certainly evolve over time, the mechanism also presents the flexibility to accommodate new players (e.g. companies and countries not yet with investments in exploration) in more central roles as they become stakeholders with vested interests in exploration.     

Improving international space cooperation: Considerations for the USA

In 2000 there were 40 different countries that had registered space agencies. By 2009 that number had continued to grow to 55. This article discusses how cooperation allows a nation to leverage resource and reduce risk; improve global engagement; and enhance diplomatic prestige of engaged states, political sustainability and workforce stability. The obstacles and impediments to cooperation are substantial, and are manifested through various anti-collaborative behaviors. To achieve success, these obstacles and impediments must be understood and confronted. The article examines the substantial challenges posed by technology transfer constraints, international and domestic politics, and exceptionalism perspectives. Given the imperative to cooperate, four frameworks (cooperation, augmentation, interdependence, and integration) can be employed to overcome these challenges and achieve success.     

Russia's resurgence: Prospects for space policy and international cooperation

Based on a joint study initiated in 2007–2008 by the Policy planning staff (CAP) of the French Foreign Ministry and the space agency CNES, which brought together experts, researchers and industry insiders, this article considers the factors behind Russia's recent resurgence and the possible revival of its space programme. It examines how far the latter will require international cooperation in order to progress further and discusses likely areas of profitable collaboration with Europe in general and France in particular, given that country's long history of space cooperation with Russia and the need in the mid-term future to share the burden of developing ambitious new space programs. While there is in principle much potential, especially in the area of space transportation, there are also numerous challenges and uncertainties. How these are resolved will affect the level and success of any cooperative efforts of both sides.     

An international symbol for the sustained exploration of space

As humanity prepares to extend its reach beyond low-Earth-orbit for the first time since the 1970s, a new symbol of international cooperation is needed to further promote the message of peace and collaboration such exploration entails. The space race that occurred between the USSR and the USA is an ill-suited model for long-term sustained space exploration because it is too costly and too resource-intensive for a single nation to bear. While competition is healthy for technology development, the success of a sustained space exploration strategy lies beyond technological capabilities. It lies in international cooperation, space policy, and public support. Without these, no program can realistically achieve a sustained presence in space beyond low-Earth orbit. To this effect, this paper proposes a cost-effective first step in the form of a universal symbol which, when placed alongside national flags displayed on hardware and astronaut/cosmonaut/taikonaut flight-suits, would send a strong message to the world that space exploration is done for the benefit of humanity as a whole, not just for spacefaring nations. The “Blue Marble”, the first complete picture of Earth taken from space by humans in 1972, fits this universally appealing symbol. This symbol requires no political collaboration between countries, yet is an image that anyone, anywhere in the world, can relate to regardless of nationality, ethnic origin or religious beliefs. Placed on the shoulder pads of human ’nauts – ambassadors of planet Earth – or prominently displayed on spacebound hardware, this symbol would send a universal message to present and future generations that, in space, our planet is working together for the benefit of everyone.     

A space exploration strategy that promotes international and commercial participation

NASA has created a plan to implement the Flexible Path strategy, which utilizes a heavy lift launch vehicle to deliver crew and cargo to orbit. In this plan, NASA would develop much of the transportation architecture (launch vehicle, crew capsule, and in-space propulsion), leaving the other in-space elements open to commercial and international partnerships. This paper presents a space exploration strategy that reverses that philosophy, where commercial and international launch vehicles provide launch services. Utilizing a propellant depot to aggregate propellant on orbit, smaller launch vehicles are capable of delivering all of the mass necessary for space exploration. This strategy has benefits to the architecture in terms of cost, schedule, and reliability.     

Cancelling the US solar-polar spacecraft : Implications for international cooperation in space

In 1981 the US spacecraft planned for the international Solar Polar Mission, in cooperation with the European Space Agency, was abruptly withdrawn. This article discusses the events leading up to the withdrawal and how it was handled by NASA and US government officials, and ESA's reaction. Reflections are offered on the experience, and ESA's current attitude towards space partnerships with the USA is examined. The author concludes the Europe is in a stronger bargaining position today, and has also advanced towards having its own autonomous space capability.     

A failure of international space cooperation: the International Earth Observing System

This paper examines the failure of the Earth Observation International Coordination Working Group to implement an International Earth Observation System. Tracing the history of both the Group and the mission concept, it explains the political and organizational failures that took place. It shows that these failures were linked to different approaches to international cooperation in Earth observation data policy. The main points of contention existed between Working Group members, NASA and ESA. NASA favored formal and binding legal arrangements, while ESA preferred to avoid institutionalized legal commitments. Success in coordinating and harmonizing data policy on a multilateral basis for Earth observation missions is more likely to be achieved by pursuing agreement on general principles and terms of reference than by seeking specific legal agreements.     

A model for multinational space cooperation

It is becoming increasingly clear that space activities can benefit from international cooperation, but concerns about national interests remain. This article examines the experience of the Inter-Agency Consultative Group (IACG), which achieved striking success in coordinating the efforts of the USA, the USSR, the European Space Agency and Japan to study Halley's Comet. Subsequently the IACG has undertaken a new project, focused on solar-terrestrial science, and further expansion could follow. However, tje group's success has depended on scrupulous respect for members' national autonomy, and so it is unlikely to herald the formation of a supranational space agency in the near future.     

Toward a paradigm shift in managing future global space exploration endeavors

This paper analyzes the objectives and activities of space exploration programs, and presents action plans and guidelines for a future sustainable global space exploration platform. While new cooperative mechanisms have emerged in recent decades, the now-unfolding era of global space exploration will lead to new models of cooperation, reflecting the legacy of partnerships and the evolution of a global endeavor. Consequently, the successful alignment of national and international stakeholders along lines drawn by commonality of purpose will be crucial to achieve a basis for marshalling sufficient resources for ambitious space projects, and to create necessary new political, economic, and legal frameworks. For the development of a successful global space exploration program, traditional approaches may need to be supplanted by a new paradigm including focus on information exchange, organizational knowledge, and human capital – as practiced in high-performance organizations (HPOs) – that go well beyond the current international working groups and multinational space efforts.     

What do nations want from international collaboration for space exploration?

From 2006 to 2007 14 space agencies developed a Global Exploration Strategy outlining the rationales, goals, and timelines for space exploration. As more nations gain support for exploration programs and begin executing missions, the informal meetings of the Global Exploration Strategy ‘partners’ should be formalized through the establishment of a new international collaboration mechanism for space exploration. This paper outlines a set of desirable criteria a new collaboration mechanism should meet to encourage participation by the major space powers. The criteria were developed by synthesizing information from interviews with space agency representatives, government representatives, and space policy professionals from 10 of the Global Exploration Strategy countries. The criteria give an insight into the current requirements for international collaboration in space exploration.     

Changing patterns of international cooperation in space: The Soviet factor

The new Soviet glasnost regarding international cooperation in space will clearly be one of several factors affecting traditional patterns of cooperation in the future. This article examines how the Soviet posture towards cooperation in international space ventures has changed, why the changes have occurred, and the probable consequences of those changes on traditional patterns of international cooperation in space.     

Cost Engineering – The new paradigm for space launch vehicle design

The paper describes the basic definition and application of 'Cost Engineering' which means to design a vehicle system for minimum development cost and/or for minimum operations cost. This is important now and for the future since space transportation has become primarily a commercial business in contrast to the past where it has been mainly a subject of military power and national prestige. Several examples are presented for minimum-cost space launch vehicle configurations, such as increasing vehicle size and/or the use of less efficient rocket engines in order to reduce development and operations cost. Further a cost comparison is presented on single-stage (SSTO)-vehicles vs. two-stage launchers which shows that SSTOs have lower development and operations cost although they are larger, respectively have a higher lift-off mass than two-stage vehicles with the same performance. The design of a space tourism-dedicated launch vehicle is an extreme challenge for a cost-engineered vehicle design in order to achieve cost per seat not higher than $50,000. Finally an outlook is presented on the different options for manned Earth-to-Moon transportation modes and vehicles – another most important application of 'cost engineering', taking into account the large cost of such a future venture.     

航天国际合作项目进度风险管理研究

文章针对航天国际合作项目的发展趋势,对其管理模式进行了对比分析,指出新模式对项目计划和风险管理提出的新要求,对航天国际合作项目的工作分解结构、进度管理和风险管理的关联性进行了描述,提出基于风险管理的进度管理体系结构和将风险纳入计划管理体系的工作流程,并给出航天国际合作项目进度管理的有效解决方案。