Spatio-temporal analysis of ionospheric disturbances for ground based augmentation systems over a midlatitude region

Forcings from above and below the ionosphere can cause disturbances that need to be detected and corrected for navigation systems. Ground Based Augmentation Systems (GBAS) are used to give corrections to aircraft navigation systems while landing. These systems use regional ionosphere monitoring algorithms to detect the anomalies in the ionosphere. The aim of this study is to understand occurrence of ionosphere anomalies and their trends over Turkey. A comprehensive analysis of spatio-temporal variability of ionosphere is carried out for a midlatitude GPS network using Slant Total Electron Content (STEC). Differential Rate Of TEC (DROT), which is a measure of the amount of deviation of temporal derivative of TEC from its trend, is used to detect and classify the level of such disturbances. The GPS satellite tracks are grouped into north, east, west and over directions. The 24 h is divided into six time intervals. The percentage occurrence of each DROT category and the deviation from STEC trend in magnitude are calculated and grouped into satellite track directions and time intervals for 2010 (low solar activity), 2011 and 2012 (medium solar activity). The highest level of disturbances is observed in north and west directions, and during sunrise and sunset hours. The dominant periods of percentage occurrences are diurnal (22–25 h), semidiurnal (12–13 h) and terdiurnal (8–9 h) followed by quasi two-day and quasi 16-day periods. Disturbances corresponding to 50% < DROT < 70% are mostly visible during low solar activity years with magnitudes from 1 to 2 TECU. Geomagnetic storms can cause aperiodic larger scale disturbances that are mostly correlated with DROT > 70%. In 2012, the magnitude of such disturbances can reach 5 TECU. The anisotropic and dynamic nature of midlatitude ionosphere is reflected in the spatio-temporal and spectral distributions of DROT, and their percentage occurrences. This study serves a basis for future studies about development of a regional ionosphere monitoring for Turkey.     

Comparison of GPS-TEC measurements with NeQuick2 and IRI model predictions in the low latitude East African region during varying solar activity period (1998 and 2008–2015)

This paper examines the performances of NeQuick2, the latest available IRI-2016, IRI-2012 and IRI-2007 models in describing the monthly and seasonal mean total electron content (TEC) over the East African region. This is to gain insight into the success of the various model types and versions at characterizing the ionosphere within the equatorial ionization anomaly. TEC derived from five Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers installed at Addis Ababa (ADD, 5.33°N, 111.99°E Geog.), Asab (ASAB, 8.67°N, 116.44°E Geog.), Ambo (ABOO, 5.43°N, 111.05°E Geog.), Nairobi (RCMN, ?4.48°N, 108.46°E Geog.) and Nazret (NAZR, 4.78°N, 112.43°E Geog.), are compared with the corresponding values computed using those models during varying solar activity period (1998 and 2008–2015). We found that different models describe the equatorial and anomaly region ionosphere best depending on solar cycle, season and geomagnetic activity levels. Our results show that IRI-2016 is the best model (compared to others in terms of discrepancy range) in estimating the monthly mean GPS-TEC at NAZR, ADD and RCMN stations except at ADD during 2008 and 2012. It is also found that IRI-2012 is the best model in estimating the monthly mean TEC at ABOO station in 2014. IRI show better agreement with observations during June solstice for all the years studied at ADD except in 2012 where NeQuick2 better performs. At NAZR, NeQuick2 better performs in estimating seasonal mean GPS-TEC during 2011, while IRI models are best during 2008–2009. Both NeQuick2 and IRI models underestimate measured TEC for all the seasons at ADD in 2010 but overestimate at NAZR in 2009 and RCMN in 2008. The periodic variations of experimental and modeled TEC have been compared with solar and geomagnetic indices at ABOO and ASAB in 2014 and results indicate that the F10.7 and sunspot number as indices of solar activity seriously affects the TEC variations with periods of 16–32?days followed by the geomagnetic activity on shorter timescales (roughly periods of less than 16?days). In this case, NeQuick2 derived TEC shows better agreement with a long term period variations of GPS-TEC, while IRI-2016 and IRI-2007 show better agreement with observations during short term periodic variations. This indicates that the dependence of NeQuick2 derived TEC on F10.7 is seasonal. Hence, we suggest that representation of geomagnetic activity indices is required for better performance over the low latitude region.     

Detection of the ionospheric disturbances on GPS-TEC using Differential Rate Of TEC (DROT) algorithm

The solar, geomagnetic, gravitational and seismic activities can cause spatial and temporal (hourly, diurnal, seasonal and annual) variabilities of the ionosphere. Main observable ionospheric parameters such as Total Electron Content (TEC) can be used to quantify these. TEC is the total number of electrons on a ray path crossing the atmosphere. The network of world-wide Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers provide a cost-effective solution in estimating TEC over a significant proportion of global land mass. This study is focused on the analysis of the variations of ionosphere over a midlatitude region using GPS-TEC estimates for three Sun Spot Numbers (SSN) periods. The investigation is based on a fast and automatic variability detection algorithm, Differential Rate Of TEC (DROT). The algorithm is tested using literature data on disturbances generated by a geomagnetic activity, a Solar Flare, a Medium Scale Travelling Ionospheric Disturbance (MSTID), a Large Scale TID (LSTID) and an earthquake. Very good agreement with the results in the literature is found. DROT is applied to IONOLAB-TEC estimates from nine Turkish National Permanent GPS Network (TNPGN Active) stations over Turkey to detect the any wave-like oscillations, sudden disturbances and other irregularities during December, March, June, September months for 2010, 2011, 2012 years. It is observed that DROT algorithm is capable of detecting both small and large scale variability due to climatic, gravitational, geomagnetic and solar activities in all layers of ionosphere. The highest DROT values are observed in 2010 during winter months. In higher solar activity years of 2011 and 2012, DROT is able to indicate both seasonal variability and severe changes in ionosphere due to increased number of geomagnetic storms and local seismic activities.     

Imaging Global Electron Content backwards in time more than 160 years ago

The Global Electron Content, GEC, represents the total number of electrons in the spherical layer over the Earth restricted by orbit of Global Positioning Satellite system (20,200 km). GEC is produced from Global Ionospheric Map of Total Electron Content, GIM-TEC, transformed to the electron density varying with height using the International Reference Ionosphere and Plasmasphere model, IRI-Plas. The climatologic GEC model is developed from GIM-TEC maps for a period 1999–2012 including the solar activity, annual and semiannual cycles as the most important factors affecting daily GEC variation. The proxy R_zp of the international sunspot numbers, R_i, is used as a measure of solar activity composed of 3 day smoothed R_i, 7 day and 81 day backwards mean of R_i scaled to the range of 1–40 proxy units, p.u. The root mean square error of the GEC climatologic model is found to vary from 8% to 13% of GEC. Taking advantage of a long history of sunspot numbers, the climatologic GEC model is applied for GEC reconstruction backwards in time for more than 160 years ago since 1850. The extended set of GEC values provides the numerical representation of the ionosphere and plasmasphere electron content coherent with variations of solar activity as a potential proxy index driving the ionosphere models.     

On the performance of IRI-2016 to predict the North-South asymmetry of the equatorial ionization anomaly around 73°E longitude

The ionospheric total electron content (TEC) in both northern and southern Equatorial anomaly regions are examined by using the Global Positioning System (GPS) based TEC measurements around 73°E Longitude in the Asian sector. The TEC contour charts obtained at SURAT (21.16°N; 72.78°E; 12.9°N Geomagnetic Lat.) and DGAR (7.27°S; 72.37°E; 15.3°S Geomagnetic Lat.) over 73°E longitude during a very low solar activity phase (2009) and a moderate solar activity (2012) phase are used in this study. The results show the existence of hemispheric asymmetry and the effects of solar activity on the EIA crest in occurrence time, location and strength. The results are also compared with the TEC derived by IRI-2016 Model and it is found that the North-South asymmetry at the EIA region is clearly depicted by IRI-2016 with some discrepancies (up to 20% in the northern hemisphere at SURAT and up to 40% in the southern hemisphere at DGAR station for June Solstice and up to 10% both for SURAT and DGAR for December Solstice). This discrepancy in the IRI-2016 model is found larger during the year 2012 than that during the solar minimum year 2009 at both the hemispheres. Further, an asymmetry index, (A_i) is determined to illustrate the North-South asymmetry observed in TEC at EIA crest. The seasonal, annual and solar flux dependence of this index are investigated during both solstices and compared with the TEC derived by IRI.     

Evaluation of the IRI-2016 and NeQuick electron content specification by COSMIC GPS radio occultation,ground-based GPS and Jason-2 joint altimeter/GPS observations

We examined performance of two empirical profile-based ionospheric models, namely IRI-2016 and NeQuick-2, in electron content (EC) and total electron content (TEC) representation for different seasons and levels of solar activity. We derived and analyzed EC estimates in several representative altitudinal intervals for the ionosphere and the plasmasphere from the COSMIC GPS radio occultation, ground-based GPS and Jason-2 joint altimeter/GPS observations. It allows us to estimate a quantitative impact of the ionospheric electron density profiles formulation in several altitudinal intervals and to examine the source of the model-data discrepancies of the EC specification from the bottom-side ionosphere towards the GPS orbit altitudes. The most pronounced model-data differences were found at the low latitude region as related to the equatorial ionization anomaly appearance. Both the IRI-2016 and NeQuick-2 models tend to overestimate the daytime ionospheric EC and TEC at low latitudes during all seasons of low solar activity. On the contrary, during high solar activity the model results underestimated the EC/TEC observations at low latitudes. We found that both models underestimated the EC for the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere regions for all levels of solar activity. For low solar activity, the underestimated EC from the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere can compensate the overestimation of the ionospheric EC and, consequently, can slightly decrease the resulted model overestimation of the ground-based TEC. For high solar activity, the underestimated EC from the topside ionosphere and plasmasphere leads to a strengthening of the model underestimation of the ground-based TEC values. We demonstrated that the major source of the model-data discrepancies in the EC/TEC domain comes from the topside ionosphere/plasmasphere system.     

The effect of solar and geomagnetic parameters on total electron content over Ankara,Turkey

In this study, the relationship between total electron content (TEC) and solar and geomagnetic parameters for Ankara station (39.7 N, 32.76 E), Turkey located in the mid-latitude ionosphere is investigated. In this context, F10.7 solar flux and Interplanetary Magnetic Fields (IMF) from solar parameters and Kp and Dst indices from geomagnetic parameters affecting on TEC are considered. The relationship between the variables is investigated by means of the statistical multiple regression model at the universal time (UT) (Local Time = UT + 2 h) 1200 and 2400 in the years when the 24th solar cycle was minimum (2007–2009) and maximum (2015). As a result, it is found that explainable rates by solar and geomagnetic parameters of TEC changes in 2007–2009 are lower than in 2015 at daytime, while the explainable rates in the solar minimum years are higher than those the maximum year at nighttime. To be higher than the solar maximum of explainable rate in the solar minimum years at nighttime may be related to the fact that the dynamics of the ionosphere is significantly different than expected in this deep minimum period. As expected in 2015, the relationship between TEC and independent parameters is greater at daytime than at nighttime.     

基于IGS电离层TEC格网的扰动特征统计分析

电离层总电子含量（TEC）是研究空间天气特性的重要参量,通过分析电离层TEC,可以了解空间环境的变化特征.利用IGS提供的1999—2016年全球电离层TEC格网数据,按照地磁纬度将全球划分为高、中、中低、低磁纬四个区域,计算不同区域的电离层扰动;利用大量统计数据选取电离层扰动事件的判定阈值,分析电离层扰动与太阳活动、时空之间的关系;计算电离层扰动指数与地磁活动之间的相关系数.结果显示:电离层扰动与太阳活动变化具有较强的正相关特性.在太阳活动低年,电离层扰动事件发生的概率约为1.79%,在太阳活动高年发生扰动的概率约为10.18%.在空间分布上,无论是太阳活动高年还是低年,高磁纬地区发生扰动事件的概率均大于其他磁纬出现扰动事件的概率.计算得到的中磁纬和中低磁纬地区电离层扰动指数与全球地磁指数Ap的相关系数分别为0.57和0.56,说明电离层扰动指数与Ap具有较好的相关关系;高磁纬电离层扰动指数与Ap的相关系数为0.44;低磁纬扰动指数与Ap的相关系数为0.39.以上结果表明,不同区域电离层扰动与全球地磁指数Ap的相关性不同,测定区域地磁指数可能会提高与电离层扰动的相关性.      

基于因果卷积与LSTM网络的电离层总电子含量预报

电离层总电子含量（TEC）不仅是分析电离层形态的关键参数之一,同时为导航及定位等空间应用系统消除电离层附加时延提供重要支撑。由于电离层TEC的时空变化特征,本文融合因果卷积和长短时记忆网络,以太阳活动指数F_10.7、地磁活动指数Dst和电离层TEC历史数据作为特征输入,构建深度学习模型,实现提前24 h预报电离层TEC。进一步利用2005－2013年连续9年的CODE TEC数据,全面评估了模型在北京站（40°N,115°E）、武汉站（30.53°N,114.36°E）和海口站（20.02°N,110.38°E）的预报性能。结果显示不同太阳活动条件下三个站的TEC值与真实测量值的相关系数都大于0.87,均方根误差大都集中在0～1 TECU以内,且模型预报精度与纬度、太阳、地磁活动程度、季节变化相关。与仅由长短时记忆网络构成的预报模型相比,本实验模型均方根误差降低了15%,为电离层TEC预报模型的实际应用提供了参考。      

Validation of the Neustrelitz Global Model according to the low latitude ionosphere

Empirical modeling including empirical model for the total electron content (TEC) is important for the study of the ionosphere and practical applications. In this paper goodness of new Neustrelitz Global Model (then NGM) at low latitudes is studied. The NGM model includes such parameters as the maximal electron density (NmF2) and altitude of the maximum (hmF2). As of today, besides NGM there are several empirical models for NmF2 and hmF2. Therefore, a comparison of these parameters of the NGM model, not only with the experimental data, but also with two versions of the International Reference Ionosphere (the IRI model): IRI2001 and IRI-Plas would be instructive. Because the NGM model incorporates special factor describing the equatorial anomaly, the comparison in lower latitude areas is particularly interesting. As one can see from the presented example of the data from low latitude stations located in the northern and southern hemispheres near the Greenwich meridian, the NGM model may have certain advantages over the IRI model versions. In particular, NGM TEC is preferable regardless of solar activity level while NGM NmF2 is only preferable under high solar activity conditions. Next, NGM equivalent slab thickness of the ionosphere: τ(NGM) = TEC(NGM)/NmF2(NGM) has been calculated and tested to answer the question whether τ(NGM) can be used as a proxy of the slab thickness of the ionosphere for an empirical modeling. The answer is positive for the near equatorial stations and periods of high solar activity, and under such conditions predicted τ(NGM) can be used for deriving NmF2 from the experimental values of TEC(CODE) in real time.     

Application of BDS-GEO for studying TEC variability in equatorial ionosphere on different time scales

The Earth's ionosphere and especially its equatorial part is a highly dynamical medium. Geostationary satellites are known to be a powerful tool for ionospheric studies. Recent developments in BDS-GEO satellites allow such studies on the new level due to the best noise pattern in TEC estimations, which corresponds to those of GPS/GLONASS systems. Here we used BDS-GEO satellites to demonstrate their capability for studying equatorial ionosphere variability on different time scales. Analyzing data from the equatorial SIN1 IGS station we present seasonal variations in geostationary slant TEC for the periods of high (October 2013 - October 2014) and low (January 2017 - January 2018) solar activity, which show semi-annual periodicity with amplitudes about 10 TECU during solar maximum and about 5 TECU during the solar minimum. The 27-day variations are also prominent in geostationary slant TEC variations, which correlates quite well with the variations in solar extreme UV radiation. We found semi-annual pattern in small scale ionospheric disturbances evaluated based on geostationary ROTI index: maximal values correspond to spring and fall equinoxes and minimum values correspond to summer and winter solstices. The seasonal asymmetry in ROTI values was observed: spring equinox values were almost twice as higher than fall equinox ones. We also present results on the 2017 May 28–29 G3 geomagnetic storm, when ～30 TECU positive anomaly was recorded, minor and final major sudden stratospheric warmings in February and March 2016, with positive daytime TEC anomalies up to 15–20 TECU, as well as the 2017 September 6 X9.3 solar flare with 2 TECU/min TEC rate. Our results show the large potential of geostationary TEC estimations with BDS-GEO signals for continuous monitoring of space weather effects in low-latitude and equatorial ionosphere.     

利用RDSS系统测量数据提取电离层TEC参数的研究

提出了一种基于无线测定卫星业务(RDSS)系统观测数据提取电离层TEC参数的方法,利用此方法计算分析了2006年5月地面中心地区电离层垂向TEC的日变化趋势.研究结果表明,利用RDSS系统观测数据提取的电离层垂向TEC,在北京时间每日凌晨0400时左右达到最小值,在午后1400时左右达到最大值,符合电离层TEC参数受太阳活动影响较大的物理规律.结果说明研究方法是可行且有效的,文章还对可能存在的误差进行了探讨.      

A study of L band scintillations during the initial phase of rising solar activity at an Indian low latitude station

The ionospheric scintillation and TEC (Total Electron Content) variations are studied using GPS (Global Positioning System) measurements at an Indian low latitude station Surat (21.16°N, 72.78°E; Geomagnetic: 12.90°N, 147.35°E), situated near the northern crest of the equatorial anomaly region. The results are presented for data collected during the initial phase of current rising solar activity (low to moderate solar activity) period between January 2009 and December 2011. The results show that within a total number of 656 night-time scintillation events, 340 events are observed with TEC depletions, Rate of change of TEC (ROT) fluctuations and enhancement of Rate of change of TEC Index (ROTI). A comparison of night-time scintillation events from the considered period reveal strong correlation amongst the duration of scintillation activity in S₄ index_, TEC depletion, ROT fluctuations and ROTI enhancement in the year 2011, followed by the year 2010 and least in 2009. The statistical analyses of scintillation activity with enhancement of ROTI also show that about 70–96% scintillation activity took place in equinox and winter months. Moreover, from a nocturnal variation in occurrence of scintillation with (S₄ ? 0.2) and enhancement of ROTI with (ROTI ? 0.5), a general trend of higher occurrence in pre-midnight hours of equinox and winter seasons is observed in both indices during the year 2011 and 2010, while no significant trend is observed in the year 2009. The results suggest the presence of F-region ionospheric irregularities with scale sizes of few kilometers and few hundred meters over Surat and are found to be influenced by solar and magnetic activity.     

Variations of total electron content over high latitude region during the ascending phase of 24th solar cycle

The solar cycle variation and seasonal changes significantly affects the ionization process of earth’s ionosphere and required to be monitored in real time basis for regional level refinement of existing models. In view of this, the present study has been carried out by using the ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) data observed with the help of Global Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC monitoring (GISTM) system installed at Indian Antarctic Research Station, “Maitri” [70°46′00″S 11°43′56″E] during the ascending phase of 24th solar cycle. The daily values of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) flux (0.1–50?nm wavelength), 10.7?cm radio flux F_10.7 and Sunspot number (SSN) has been taken as a proxy to represent the solar cycle variation to correlate with TEC. The linear regression results revels better correlation of TEC with EUV flux rather than F_10.7 and SSN. Also, the EUV and TEC show better agreement during summer as compared to winter and equinox period. Correlation between TEC and EUV appears significantly noticeable during ten internationally defined quiet days of each month (stable background geophysical condition) as compared to the overall days (2010–2014). Further, saturation effect has been observed on TEC values during the solar maxima year 2014. The saturation effects are more prominent during the night hours of winter and equinox season due to transportation losses manifested by the equator-ward direction of meridional wind.     

Storm time spatial variations in TEC during moderate geomagnetic storms in extremely low solar activity conditions (2007–2009) over Indian region

The total electron content (TEC) measurements from a network of GPS receivers were analyzed to investigate the storm time spatial response of ionosphere over the Indian longitude sector. The GPS receivers from the GPS Aided Geo Augmented Navigation (GAGAN) network which are uniquely located around the ∼77°E longitude are used in the present study so as to get the complete latitudinal coverage from the magnetic equator to low mid-latitude region. We have selected the most intense storms but of moderate intensity (−100 nT < Dst < −50 nT) which occurred during the unusually extremely low solar activity conditions in 2007–2009. Though the storms are of moderate intensity, their effects on equatorial to low mid-latitude ionosphere are found to be very severe as TEC deviations are more than 100% during all the storms studied. Interesting results in terms of spatial distribution of positive/negative effects during the main/early recovery phase of storms are noticed. The maximum effect was observed at crest region during two storms whereas another two storms had maximum effect near the low mid-latitude region. The associated mechanisms like equatorial electrodynamics and neutral dynamics are segregated and explained using the TIMED/GUVI and EEJ data during these storms. The TEC maps are generated to investigate the storm time development/inhibition of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA).     

Temporal extrapolation of TEC using WNN during 2007–2018 and comparison against GIM,IRI2016 and Kriging

In this paper, a new method of temporal extrapolation of the ionosphere total electron content (TEC) is proposed. Using 3-layer wavelet neural networks (WNNs) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) training algorithm, TEC time series are modeled. The TEC temporal variations for next times are extrapolated with the help of training model. To evaluate the proposed model, observations of Tehran GNSS station (35.69°N, 51.33°E) from 2007 to 2018 are used. The efficiency of the proposed model has been evaluated in both low and high solar activity periods. All observations of the 2015 and 2018 have been removed from the training step to test the proposed model. On the other hand, observations of these 2 years are not used in network training. According to the F10.7, the 2015 has high solar activity and the 2018 has quiet conditions. The results of the proposed model are compared with the global ionosphere maps (GIMs) as a traditional ionosphere model, international reference ionosphere 2016 (IRI2016), Kriging and artificial neural network (ANN) models. The root mean square error (RMSE), bias, dVTEC = |VTEC_GPS ? VTEC_Model| and correlation coefficient are used to assess the accuracy of the proposed method. Also, for more accurate evaluation, a single-frequency precise point positioning (PPP) approach is used. According to the results of 2015, the maximum values of the RMSE for the WNN, ANN, Kriging, GIM and IRI2016 models are 5.49, 6.02, 6.34, 6.19 and 13.60 TECU, respectively. Also, the maximum values of the RMSE at 2018 for the WNN, ANN, Kriging, GIM and IRI2016 models are 2.47, 2.49, 2.50, 4.36 and 6.01 TECU, respectively. Comparing the results of the bias and correlation coefficient shows the higher accuracy of the proposed model in quiet and severe solar activity periods. The PPP analysis with the WNN model also shows an improvement of 1 to 12 mm in coordinate components. The results of the analyzes of this paper show that the WNN is a reliable, accurate and fast model for predicting the behavior of the ionosphere in different solar conditions.     

Validation of IRI-2012 TEC model over Ethiopia during solar minimum (2009) and solar maximum (2013) phases

This paper investigates the capacity of the latest version of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2012) model in predicting the vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC) over Ethiopian regions during solar minimum (2009) and solar maximum (2013) phases. This has been carried out by comparing the IRI-2012 modeled and experimental vTEC inferred from eight ground based dual frequency GPS (Global Positioning System) receivers installed recently at different regions of the country. In this work, the diurnal, monthly and seasonal variation in the measured vTEC have been analyzed and compared with the IRI-2012 modeled vTEC. During the solar minimum phase, the lowest and highest diurnal peak of the experimental vTEC are observed in July and October, respectively. In general, the diurnal variability of vTEC has shown minimum values around 0300 UT (0600 LT) and maximum values between around 1000 and 1300 UT (1300 and 1600 LT) during both solar activity phases. Moreover, the maximum and minimum monthly and seasonal mean hourly vTEC values are observed in October and July and in the March equinox and June solstice, respectively. It is also shown that the IRI-2012-model better predicts the diurnal vTEC in the time interval of about 0000–0300 UT (0300–0600 LT) during the solar minimum phase. However, the model generally overestimates the diurnal vTEC except in the time interval of about 0900–1500 UT (1200–1800 LT) during the solar maximum phase. The overall result of this work shows that the diurnal vTEC prediction performance of the model is generally better during the solar minimum phase than during solar maximum phase. Regarding the monthly and seasonal prediction capacity of the model, there is a good agreement between the modeled and measured monthly and seasonal mean hourly vTEC values in January and December solstice, respectively. Another result of the work depicts that unlike the GPS–TEC the IRI-2012 TEC does not respond to the effect resulted from geomagnetic storms.