Time-Dependent 2d Model Compared with Observations During the 1974 Mini Cycle

The 1974 mini-cycle is a medium term cosmic ray modulation event with about one year duration. It occurred in an A>0 epoch of solar magnetic polarity during conditions of low activity, but with an increase in the latitudinal extent of the heliospheric current sheet (tilt angle α) and the magnitude B of the heliospheric magnetic field. This cosmic ray decrease can be used to test the hypothesis that such large scale decreases (mini cycles) may be caused primarily by a combination of changes in α and B. For this purpose a fully time-dependent 2D model of solar modulation is used, which includes the effects of global and current sheet drifts, and anisotropic perpendicular diffusion. Such models have been used successfully to describe the proton energy spectrum as well as the radial and latitudinal gradients near 1 AU. Comparison of the model solutions with the observed decrease for 1.8 GV protons allows us to study the combined influence of variable drift and diffusion effects throughout the event. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Anomalous and Galactic Cosmic Rays at 1 AU During the Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum

Anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) intensities at 1 AU at solar minimum generally track galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensities such as those measured by neutron monitors, albeit with differences between solar polarity cycles. The unusual cycle 23/24 solar minimum was long-lasting with very low sunspot numbers and significantly reduced interplanetary magnetic field strength and solar wind dynamic pressure and turbulence, but also featured a heliospheric current sheet tilt that remained high for an extended period. Peak ACR intensities did not recover to the maximum values reached during the last two A>0 solar minima and just barely reached the last A<0 levels. However, GCR intensities in 2009 (neutron monitor rates and also at ～200 MeV/nucleon) were the highest recorded during the last 50 years, indicating their intensities were not as heavily modulated during their transport from the outer heliosphere. This unexpected difference in the behavior of ACRs and GCRs remains unexplained, but suggests that either the ACR source intensity may have weakened since the last A<0 epoch, or perhaps that ACR intensities at 1 AU in the ecliptic may be more sensitive than GCRs to the higher tilt angle. This seems plausible if the ACR source intensity is greater at low latitudes during A<0 cycles, while the GCR distribution at the heliospheric boundary is more uniform in latitude. Shortly after an abrupt increase in the current sheet tilt angle in late 2009, both ACR and GCR intensities showed dramatic decreases, marking the end of solar minimum modulation conditions for this cycle.     

Cosmic-Ray Modulation in the Heliosphere A Phenomenological Study

The heliospheric cosmic-ray network–Pioneer 10/11, Voyager 1/2, Ulysses and IMP 8 have provided detailed observations of galactic and anomalous cosmic rays over a period of time that now exceeds 25 years and extends to heliocentric distances beyond 65 AU. These data, when compared over consecutive 11 year solar cycles, clearly establishes the existence of a 22-year cosmic ray modulation cycle that is dominated by the 11-year solar activity cycle but is strongly influenced by gradient and curvature drifts in association with the tilt of the heliospheric neutral current sheet as well as the mediation of the enhanced magnetic turbulence above the solar poles. Over successive solar minima these effects manifest themselves in the remarkable differences in the energetic particle time histories, in the magnitude and sign of the radial and latitudinal intensity gradients and in the changes in the energy spectra of anomalous cosmic rays as a function of heliocentric distance.From solar minimum to solar maximum the long term modulation is principally a combination of two solar related phenomena, the cumulative effect of long-lived global merged interaction regions (GMIRs) and gradient and curvature drifts in the interplanetary magnetic field. For the periods when positive ions flow in over the solar poles and out along the heliospheric current sheet, the modulation of ions is dominated by GMIRs. When this flow pattern is reversed it is found that drifts are an important but not dominant factor for cosmic ray modulation with the current sheet related drift effects decreasing with increasing rigidity R, heliolatitude and heliocentric distance. Over a single solar cycle these conclusions are confirmed at 1 AU by comparing the relative modulation of cosmic-ray helium nuclei and electrons.     

Polar rain entry of galactic electrons into the inner heliosphere?

The understanding of the relative intensity variations in cosmic ray ions and electrons with respect to solar modulation is a grand challenge for cosmic ray modulation theory. Although effects of the heliospheric neutral sheet, gradient-curvature drifts, and merged interaction regions provide qualitative explanations for observed solar cycle variations of high energy protons and ions, these effects do not account for the anomalously high intensities of high energy galactic electrons at 22-year intervals of the solar magnetic solar cycle. From the similar modulation responses of protons and heavy ions it does not appear that cosmic ray pressure effects, dominated by protons, can account for the chargesign asymmetry of cosmic ray modulation. External factors including modulation in the heliosheath and polar linkage to the interstellar magnetic field are examined as potential causes of symmetry breaking for electron modulation with respect to the solar magnetic polarity at solar minimum.     

The Solar and Cosmic-Ray Synodic Periodicity (1969–1998)

The synodic recurrence of the Mt. Wilson plage index (MPSI) and the Calgary cosmic ray (CR) intensity is investigated, using the wavelet power spectra in the range of 18–38 days, during the last three solar cycles. The unique temporal coincidence between the quasi–synodic MPSI and the CR periods is detected in 1978–1982 (the 21st solar cycle). In the 22nd cycle there is a very strong MPSI synodic recurrence, from 1989.5 to 1990.5, but it is absent in the CR data. In 1992.5–1993.5 the MPSI and CR recurrence phenomenon is in good accordance with the solar wind speed and cosmic ray modulation as measured during the first Ulysses passage around the Sun. The Gnevyshev gap is present in the 27-day recurrence of CR, in agreement with Kudela et al. (1999). This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modulation Near Solar Maximum at High Solar Latitudes Observations From the Ulysses Cospin High Energy Telescope

The three-dimensional structure of the solar maximum modulation of cosmic rays in the heliosphere can be studied for the first time by comparing observations from Ulysses at high solar latitudes to those from in-ecliptic spacecraft, such as IMP-8. Observations through mid-2000 show that changes in modulation remain well correlated at Earth and Ulysses up to latitudes of ∼60° south. The observed changes seem to be best correlated with changes in the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet. The spectral index of the proton spectra at energies <100 MeV in the ecliptic and at high latitudes remain roughly consistent with the T ⁺¹ spectrum expected from modulation models, while the spectral index of the helium spectrum at both locations has changed smoothly from the flat or even negative index spectra characteristic of anomalous component fluxes toward the T ⁺¹ galactic spectrum with increasing modulation. Intensities near the equator and at high latitude remain nearly equal, and latitudinal gradients for nucleonic cosmic rays thus remain small (<1% deg⁻¹) at solar maximum. In the most recent data fluxes of protons and helium with energies less than ∼100 MeV nucl⁻¹ measured by Ulysses are smaller than those measured at IMP-8, suggesting that the gradients may have switched to become negative toward the poles even before a clear reversal of polarity for the solar magnetic dipole has been completed. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere: Theory and Models

Almost all theoretical and numerical models for the modulation of cosmic ray in the heliosphere are based on Parker's transport equation which contains all the important basic physical processes. The relative importance of the various mechanisms is however not established and may vary significantly over 22 years. The simultaneous measurements of solar wind parameters, heliospheric magnetic field properties and cosmic rays over a wide range of energies and positions in the heliosphere have brought the realization that modulation is much more complicated than what the original drift models predicted. In the process the sophistication of models based on solving Parker's equation has increased by orders of magnitude. A short review of the global modulation of cosmic rays is given from a theoretical and modelling point of view.     

What do Cosmogenic Isotopes Tell us About Past Solar Forcing of Climate?

In paleoclimate studies, cosmogenic isotopes are frequently used as proxy indicators of past variations in solar irradiance on centennial and millennial timescales. These isotopes are spallation products of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) impacting Earth's atmosphere, which are deposited and stored in terrestrial reservoirs such as ice sheets, ocean sediments and tree trunks. On timescales shorter than the variations in the geomagnetic field, they are modulated by the heliosphere and thus they are, strictly speaking, an index of heliospheric variability rather than one of solar variability. Strong evidence of climate variations associated with the production (as opposed to the deposition) of these isotopes is emerging. This raises a vital question: do cosmic rays have a direct influence on climate or are they a good proxy indicator for another factor that does (such as the total or spectral solar irradiance)? The former possibility raises further questions about the possible growth of air ions generated by cosmic rays into cloud condensation nuclei and/or the modulation of the global thunderstorm electric circuit. The latter possibility requires new understanding about the required relationship between the heliospheric magnetic fields that scatter cosmic rays and the photospheric magnetic fields which modulate solar irradiance.     

Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays at Solar Minimum

Cosmic ray particles respond to the heliospheric magnetic field in the expanding solar wind and its turbulence and therefore provide a unique probe for conditions in the changing heliosphere. During the last four years, concentrated around the solar minimum period of solar cycle 22, the exploration of the solar polar regions by the joint ESA/NASA mission Ulysses revealed the three-dimensional behavior of cosmic rays in the inner and middle heliosphere. Also during the last decades, the Pioneer and Voyager missions have greatly expanded our understanding of the structure and extent of the outer heliosphere. Simultaneously, numerical models describing the propagation of galactic cosmic rays are becoming sophisticated tools for interpreting and understanding these observations. We give an introduction to the subject of the modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere during solar minimum. The modulation effects on cosmic rays of corotating interaction regions and their successors in the outer heliosphere are discussed in more detail by Gazis, McDonald et al. (1999) and McKibben, Jokipii et al. (1999) in this volume. Cosmic-ray observations from the Ulysses spacecraft at high heliographic latitudes are also described extensively in this volume by Kunow, Lee et al. (1999). This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Solar and Heliospheric Modulation of Galactic Cosmic Rays

The significance of external influences on the environment of Earth and its atmosphere has become evident during recent years. Especially, on time scales of several hundred years, the cosmogenic isotope concentration during the Wolf-, Spoerer-, Maunder- and Dalton-Minimum indicates an increased cosmic ray flux. Because these grand minima of solar activity coincide with cold periods, a correlation of the Earth climate with the cosmic ray intensities is plausible. Any quantitative study of the effects of energetic particles on the atmosphere and environment of the Earth must address their transport to Earth and their interactions with the Earth’s atmosphere including their filtering by the terrestrial magnetosphere. The first problem is one of the fundamental problems in modern cosmic ray astrophysics, and corresponding studies began in the 1960s based on Parker’s cosmic ray modulation theory taking into account diffusion, convection, adiabatic deceleration, and (later) the drift of energetic particles in the global heliospheric magnetic field. It is well established that all of these processes determining the modulation of cosmic rays are depending on parameters that are varying with the solar magnetic cycle. Therefore, the galactic cosmic ray intensities close to Earth is the result of a complex modulation of the interstellar galactic spectrum within the heliosphere. The modern view of this cosmic ray modulation is summarized in our contribution.     

Transient Effects and Disturbed Conditions

In the present phase of the solar cycle no big transients leading to strong modulation had been observed after 1991. Apart from a few minor disturbances cosmic rays were still recovering to a new intensity maximum. It was suggested, therefore, that existing literature from previous cycles should be critically reviewed. The scene was set by the introductory papers on— phenomenology of cosmic ray modulation in successive solar cycles throughout the heliosphere— the present state of models for long term modulation and their shortcomings— the relation between cosmic ray variations and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (the CR-B-relation)— charge dependent effects.In the discussions, the study of propagating diffusive disturbances and the CR-B-relation played a central role. The difference was stressed between isolated transient disturbances in the inner solar system (Forbush decreases), and the long lasting, step-like decreases caused by merged interaction regions in the outer heliosphere. The recovery rates following the step-like decreases vary with the phase in the 22-year solar cycle. In some cases this requires a modification of existing drift models. In the outer heliosphere, the CR-B-relation leads to the result 1/ between the diffusion coefficient and the field magnitude . This simple result is a challenge for theoreticians to derive the perpendicular diffusion coefficient fromfirst principles. The three articles in this report essentially follow the list of open points and arguments just presented.The article "Observations and Simple Models" is organised around the model of a propagating diffusive barrier, its application to Forbush effects in the inner heliosphere and to decreases caused by merged interaction regions in the outer heliosphere. Acomparison of observed Forbush decreases with model predictions requires a careful separation of the two steps related to the turbulent region behind the shock front and the closed magnetic field regions of the ejecta (the interplanetary counterparts of coronal mass ejections). It is shown that models for propagating disturbances can be used to derive values of the diffusion coefficients phenomenologically, not only during the disturbance, but also in the ambient medium.The "Modeling of Merged Interaction Regions" summarizes the dynamic and time-dependent process of cosmic ray modulation in the heliosphere. Numerical models with only a time-dependent neutral sheet prove to be successful when moderate to low solar activity occurs but fail to describe large and discrete steps in modulated cosmic rays when solar activity is high. To explain this feature of heliospheric modulation, the concept of global merged interaction regions is required. The com-bination of gradient, curvature and neutral sheet drifts with these global merged interaction regions has so far been the most successful approach in explaining the 11-year and 22-year cycles in the long-term modulation of cosmic rays.The "Remarks on the Diffusion Tensor in the Heliosphere" describe available theories of perpen-dicular diffusion and drift, and discuss their relevance to cosmic rays in the heliosphere. In addition, the information about diffusion coefficients and spatial gradients obtained from the analysis of steady state anisotropies at neutron monitor energies is summarized. These topics are intimately related to the other two articles. They are also part of the general discussion about the "Diffusion Tensor throughout the Heliosphere" which played an important role in all working groups.     

Solar Drivers of 11-yr and Long-Term Cosmic Ray Modulation

In the current paradigm for the modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), diffusion is taken to be the dominant process during solar maxima while drift dominates at minima. Observations during the recent solar minimum challenge the pre-eminence of drift at such times. In 2009, the ～2 GV GCR intensity measured by the Newark neutron monitor increased by ～5% relative to its maximum value two cycles earlier even though the average tilt angle in 2009 was slightly larger than that in 1986 (～20° vs. ～14°), while solar wind B was significantly lower (～3.9 nT vs. ～5.4 nT). A decomposition of the solar wind into high-speed streams, slow solar wind, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs; including post-shock flows) reveals that the Sun transmits its message of changing magnetic field (diffusion coefficient) to the heliosphere primarily through CMEs at solar maximum and high-speed streams at solar minimum. Long-term reconstructions of solar wind B are in general agreement for the ～1900-present interval and can be used to reliably estimate GCR intensity over this period. For earlier epochs, however, a recent ¹⁰Be-based reconstruction covering the past ～10⁴ years shows nine abrupt and relatively short-lived drops of B to ?0 nT, with the first of these corresponding to the Spörer minimum. Such dips are at variance with the recent suggestion that B has a minimum or floor value of ～2.8 nT. A floor in solar wind B implies a ceiling in the GCR intensity (a permanent modulation of the local interstellar spectrum) at a given energy/rigidity. The 30–40% increase in the intensity of 2.5 GV electrons observed by Ulysses during the recent solar minimum raises an interesting paradox that will need to be resolved.     

Latitudinal Variation of the Underlying Heliospheric Magnetic Field Direction: Comparison of the Ulysses First and Second Orbits

We discuss the underlying direction of the heliospheric magnetic field measured by Ulysses in the latitude range 6° S-65° S by examining distributions of the magnetic field azimuthal angle with respect to the simple Parker spiral model. During the first Ulysses traversal of this latitude range in 1992–1994, while solar activity was declining, the shape of the distributions obtained at high latitudes in the fast solar wind differed from that at lower latitudes. In the present data set, obtained during rising solar activity, both field polarities are present at all latitudes and the peaks of the distributions agree with the predicted spiral direction to first approximation. However, compared to the first orbit, a significantly greater percentage of the observed field vectors have large deviations from the spiral direction. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Sun in Time

The Sun varies in time over at least twenty orders of magnitude. In this highly selective look at a vast subject, the focus is on solar variations related to the magnetic field structure of the heliosphere since these changes affect the propagation of cosmic rays in the heliosphere. The root of the changes is the magnetic field pattern near the solar surface. Some key aspects of the behavior of this pattern are reviewed. Recent solar activity has been unlike any experienced in living memory and several of the observed oddities are noted. Included here is a first attempt to directly compare three decades of magnetic field measurements in coronal holes with the heliospheric magnetic field at 1 AU. Results support the idea that nearly all the open magnetic flux from the Sun originates in coronal holes (including those close to active regions).     

High energy cosmic ray nuclei results on Ulysses: 1. Mission overview

The cosmic ray flux observed with the Kiel Electron Telescope on board the ULYSSES spaceprobe varies with solar activity as well as with heliospheric position. Determination of the latitudinal gradients requires a careful analysis of the influences of the current sheet tilt angle, the number of major solar flares, interplanetary shocks and interaction regions evolving in the expanding solar wind. In this paper we concentrate on nuclei with rigidity above 1 GV. We discuss the effects of the variable solar activity in the declining phase of the present solar cycle and the variation with radial distance as a basis for separating latitudinal effects. We show that during this phase of the solar cycle modulation of GV nuclei is ordered by temporal evolution, radial distance and negligible latitudinal effects even at latitudes between 30° and 50° South.     

Ulysses out-of-ecliptic observations of “27-day” variations in high energy cosmic ray intensity

We report the discovery that for latitudes above 40°S, the observed recurring modulation of cosmic rays and anomalous nuclei occurs without the detection byUlysses of the solar wind velocity and magnetic field recurring enhancements that have, heretofore at lower latitudes, defined corotating interaction regions—i.e., the mechanism producing the recurring intensity variations >40°S appears to be located beyond the radial range ofUlysses.     

Planar Structuring of Magnetic Fields at Solar Minimum and Maximum

Planar magnetic structures are regions of the solar wind where the magnetic field is oriented parallel to a fixed plane for several hours or more. Discontinuities in the field direction may be encountered during these periods, their surfaces also being parallel to the plane containing the field. A survey of Ulysses magnetic field data returned during 1990–1998 revealed that the solar wind's magnetic field was planar in nature for at least 9% of the time. A survey is presented of planar magnetic structures encountered by Ulysses during two periods when the spacecraft was travelling south from the ecliptic to high southern heliographic latitudes, in 1992–1994 and 1998–2000. The characteristics of the planar magnetic structures encountered during these times of declining and near-maximum solar activity are described, as well as their apparent relationships with interplanetary shocks and heliospheric current sheet crossings. Planar magnetic structures are more common near solar maximum. However, the proportion of structures coinciding with HCS crossings and shocks seems relatively constant. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Effects of Transverse Magnetic Field and Density Variations on the Particle Energy Spectra in a Reconnecting 3D Current Sheet

Electron and proton acceleration by a super-Dreicer electric field is further investigated in a non-neutral reconnecting current sheet (RCS) with a variable plasma density. The tangential B _z and transverse magnetic field components B _x are assumed to vary with the distances x and z from the X nullpoint linearly and exponentially, respectively; the longitudinal component (a ‘guiding field’) is accepted constant. Particles are found to gain a bulk of their energy in a thin region close to the X nullpoint where the RCS density increases with z exponentially with the index λ and the tangential magnetic field B _x also increases with z exponentially with the index α. For the RCS with a constant density (λ = 0), the variations of the tangential magnetic field lead to particle power-law energy spectra with the spectral indices γ₁ being dependent on the exponent α as: for protons and for electrons in a strong guiding field (β > 10⁻²) and for electrons in a moderate or weak guiding field (β > 10⁻⁴). For the RCS with an exponential density increase in the vicinity of the X nullpoint (λ≥ 0) there is a further increase of the resulting spectral indices γ that depends on the density exponent index λ as for protons and for electrons in weaker guiding fields and as for electrons in stronger guiding fields. These dependencies can explain a wide variety (1.5–10) of particle spectral indices observed in solar flares by the variations of a magnetic field topology and physical conditions in a reconnecting region. This can be used as a diagnostic tool for the investigation of the RCS dynamics from the accelerated particle spectra found from hard X-ray and microwave emission.     

The Strength and Structure of the Coronal Magnetic Field

I discuss a method for determining the strength and spatial structure of the coronal magnetic field by observations of the Faraday rotation of a radio galaxy which is in conjunction with the Sun. Given a knowledge of the plasma density in the outer corona, and the magnetic field sector structure (both independently available), the strength of the coronal field can be determined, as well as the magnitude of spatial variations on scales of 1000 km to several solar radii. Such knowledge is crucial for testing computational models of the solar corona, which are prominently featured in this meeting. Results are presented from observations with the Very Large Array radio telescope of the radio galaxy 3C228 on August 16, 2003, when the line of sight to the source was at heliocentic distances of 7.1−6.2R _⊙. The observations are consistent with a coronal magnetic field which is proportional to the inverse square of the distance in the range 6 ≤ r ≤ 10R _⊙, and has a value of 39 mG at 6.2R _⊙. The Faraday rotation is uniform across the source, indicating an absence of strong plasma inhomogeneity on spatial scales up to 35,000 km.     

Solar modulation of galactic cosmic radiation

In this review an attempt is made to present an integrated view of the solar modulation process that cause time variation of cosmic ray particles. After briefly surveying the relevant large and small scale properties of the interplanetary magnetic fields and plasma, the motion of cosmic ray particles in the disordered interplanetary magnetic fields is discussed. The experimentally observed long term variations of different species of cosmic ray particles are summarised and compared with the theoretical predictions from the diffusion-convection model. The effect of the energy losses due to decelaration in the expanding solar wind are clearly brought out. The radial density gradient, the modulation parameter and their long term variation are discussed to understand the dynamics of the modulating region. The cosmic ray anisotropy measurements at different energies are summarised. At high energies (E 1 GeV), the average diurnal anisotropy is shown to be energy independent and along the 18.00 h direction consistent with their undergoing partial corotation with the sun. The average semi-diurnal anisotropy seems to vary with energy as E ⁺¹ and incident from a direction perpendicular to the interplanetary field line, consistent with the semi-diurnal component being produced by latitudinal gradients. Both the diurnal and semi-diurnal components are shown to be practically time invariant. On a day to day basis, however, the anisotropy characteristics such as the exponent of variation, the amplitude and the phase show very high variability which are interpreted in terms of convection and variable field aligned diffusion due to the redistribution of the galactic cosmic ray density following transient changes in the interplanetary medium. The anisotropy observation at low energies (E 100 MeV) are, however, not explained by the theory.The rigidity dependence and the anisotropies during short term variations such as Forbush decreases are discussed in terms of the proposed field models for the interplanetary field structure and are compared with the observed rigidity dependence of long term variations. The data pertaining to the 27 day corotating Forbush decreases and their association with enhanced diurnal variation are also presented. The relationship between the energetic storm particle events which are caused by the acceleration of particles in the shock fronts and the Forbush decreases which are caused by the exclusion of galactic particles by the enhanced field structure in the same fronts are clearly brought out. Thus the recurrent increases at low energies and recurrent decreases at high energies may both be caused by the field structure in the shock front. In conclusion, the properties of the very short period fluctuations (18–25 cph) are summarised.