Forecasting the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind and the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances produced by it

A brief review is given of contemporary approaches to solving the problem of medium-term forecast of the velocity of quasi-stationary solar wind (SW) and of the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by it. At the present time, two promising models of calculating the velocity of quasi-stationary SW at the Earth’s orbit are realized. One model is the semi-empirical model of Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) which allows one to calculate the dependence V(t) of SW velocity at the Earth’s orbit using measured values of the photospheric magnetic field. This model is based on calculation of the local divergence f _S of magnetic field lines. The second model is semi-empirical model by Eselevich-Fainshtein-Rudenko (EFR). It is based on calculation in a potential approximation of the area of foot points on the solar surface of open magnetic tubes (sources of fast quasistationary SW). The new Bd-technology is used in these calculations, allowing one to calculate instantaneous distributions of the magnetic field above the entire visible surface of the Sun. Using predicted V(t) profiles, one can in EFR model calculate also the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances caused by quasi-stationary SW. This intensity is expressed through the K _p index. In this paper the EFR model is discussed in detail. Some examples of epignosis and real forecast of V(t) and K _p (t) are discussed. A comparison of the results of applying these two models for the SW velocity forecasting is presented.     

Turbulent fluctuations of plasma and magnetic field parameters in the magnetosheath and the low-latitude boundary layer formation: Multisatellite observations on March 2, 1996

The results of simultaneous analysis of plasma and magnetic field characteristics measured on the INTERBALL/Tail Probe, WIND and Geotail satellites on March 2, 1996, are presented. During these observations the INTERBALL/Tail Probe crossed the low-latitude boundary layer, and the WIND and Geotail satellites measured the solar wind’s and magnetosheath’s parameters, respectively. The plasma and magnetic field characteristics in these regions have been compared. The data of the Corall, Electron, and MIF instruments on the INTERBALL/Tail Probe satellite are analyzed. Fluctuations of the magnetic field components and plasma velocity in the solar wind and magnetosheath, measured onboard the WIND and Geotail satellites, are compared. The causes resulting in appearance of plasma jet flows in the low-latitude boundary layer are analyzed. The amplitude of magnetic field fluctuations in the magnetosheath for a studied magnetosphere boundary crossing is shown to exceed the magnetic field value below the magnetopause near the cusp. The possibility of local violation of pressure balance on the magnetopause is discussed, as well as penetration of magnetosheath plasma into the magnetosphere, as a result of magnetic field and plasma flux fluctuations in the magnetosheath.     

Statistical investigation of Heliospheric conditions resulting in magnetic storms: 2

This work is a continuation of investigation [1] of the behavior of the solar wind’s and interplanetary magnetic field’s parameters near the onset of geomagnetic storms for various types of solar wind streams. The data of the OMNI base for the 1976–2000 period are used in the analysis. The types of solar wind streams were determined, and the times of beginning (onsets) of magnetic storms were distributed in solar wind types as follows: CIR (121 storms), Sheath (22 storms), MC (113 storms), and “uncertain type” (367 storms). The growth of variations (hourly standard deviations) of the density and IMF magnitude was observed 5–10 hours before the onset only in the Sheath. For the CIR-, Sheath-and MC-induced storms the dependence between the minimum of the IMF B _z-component and the minimum of the D _st -index, as well as the dependence between the electric field E _y of solar wind and the minimum of the D _st -index are steeper than those for the “uncertain” solar wind type. The steepest D _st vs. B _z dependence is observed in the Sheath, and the steepest D _st vs. E _y dependence is observed in the MC.     

Peculiarities of long-wave radio bursts from solar flares preceding strong geomagnetic storms

Radio bursts in the frequency range of 100–1500 kHz, recorded in 1997–2000 on the INTERBALL-1 satellite during the solar flares preceding the strong geomagnetic storms with D _st < ?100 nT, are analyzed in this paper. The observed long-wave III-type radio bursts of solar origin at frequencies of 1460 and 780 kHz were characterized by large values of the flux S _f = 10^?15 ?10^?17 W/m² Hz and duration longer than 10 min. The rapid frequency drift of a modulated radio burst continued up to a frequency of 250 kHz, which testified that the exciting agent (a beam of energetic electrons) propagated from the Sun to the Earth. All such flares were characterized by the appearance of halo coronal mass ejections, observed by the LASCO/SOHO, and by the presence of a southward B_z-component of the IMF, measured on the ACE and WIND spacecraft. In addition, shortly after radio bursts, the INTERBALL-1 satellite has recorded the fluxes of energetic electrons with E > 40 keV.     

Families of periodic solutions in three-dimensional restricted three-body problem

Planar orbits of three-dimensional restricted circular three-body problem are considered as a special case of three-dimensional orbits, and the second-order monodromy matrices M (in coordinate z and velocity v _z ) are calculated for them. Semi-trace s of matrix M determines vertical stability of an orbit. If |s| ≤ 1, then transformation of the subspace (z, v _z ) in the neighborhood of solution for the period is reduced to deformation and a rotation through angle φ, cosφ = s. If the angle ? can be rationally expressed through 2π,φ = 2π·p/q, where p and q are integer, then a planar orbit generates the families of three-dimensional periodic solutions that have a period larger by a factor of q (second kind Poincareé periodic solutions). Directions of continuation in the subspace (z, v _z ) are determined by matrix M. If |s| < 1, we have two new families, while only one exists at resonances 1: 1 (s = 1) and 2: 1 (s = ?1). In the course of motion along the family of three-dimensional periodic solutions, a transition is possible from one family of planar solutions to another one, sometimes previously unknown family of planar solutions.     

Identification of sources of Pc1 geomagnetic pulsations on the basis of proton aurora observations

The relationship between proton aurora and geomagnetic pulsations Pc1, which are an indicator of development of ion-cyclotron instability in the equatorial magnetosphere, are studied on the basis of the observations of proton aurora from the IMAGE satellite, observations of particle fluxes onboard the low-orbiting NOAA satellites, and geomagnetic pulsation observations at the Lovozero observatory. A conclusion is drawn that the subauroral spots in the proton emission projected into the magnetosphere near the plasmapause are two-dimensional images at the ionospheric “screen” of the region of intense scattering of energetic protons into the loss cone at the development of an ion-cyclotron instability.     

Short increases of the fluxes of electrons with energies > 0.08 MeV at low-latitude (<Emphasis Type="Italic">L</Emphasis> < 2) regions of near-Earth space

We present the characteristics of short (duration less than 1 min) increases of the counting rate of electrons with energies >0.08 MeV observed in low-latitude (L < 2.0) regions of near-Earth space in the course of the GRIF experiment on the Spektr module of the Mir orbital station. The measurements were carried out using a set of instruments including X-ray and gamma-ray spectrometers, as well as detectors of electrons, protons, and nuclei with large and small geometrical factors, which allowed one to detect the fluxes of charged particles both in the region of the Earth’s radiation belts and in regions close to the geomagnetic equator. As a result of more than 1.5 years of observation, it is demonstrated that short increases in the intensity of electrons of subrelativistic energies are detected not only in the regions of the near-Earth space known as “precipitation zones” (1.7 < L < 2.5), but in high-latitude regions (up to the geomagnetic equator, L < 1.1) as well. Two types of increases of the electron counting rate are found: either fairly regular increases repeating on successive orbits or increases local in time. The latter type of increases can be caused by a short enhancement of electron flux on a given drift shell. The results of our measurements have shown that the duration of the detected increases in intensity can be rather short, as little as 20–30 s. Therefore, in the case of large amplitudes, such increases of the counting rate of electrons can imitate astrophysical events of the type of cosmic gamma-ray bursts in the detectors of hard X-ray and gamma radiation.     

Peculiarities of the formation of a thin current sheet in the Earth’s magnetosphere

We investigate the process of the self-consistent formation of a thin current sheet with a thickness close to the ion Larmor gyroradius in the presence of decreasing magnetic field’s normal component B_n. This behavior is typical of the current sheet of the Earth’s magnetospheric tail during geomagnetic substorms. It has been shown that, in a numerical model of the current sheet, based on the particle-in-cell method, the appearance of self-consistent electric field component E_y in the current sheet vicinity can lead to its significant thinning and, eventually, to the formation of a multiscale configuration with a thin current sheet (TCS) in the central region supported by transient particles. The structure of the resulting equilibrium is determined by the initial parameters of the model and by the particle dynamics during the sheet thinning. Under certain conditions, the particle drift in the crossed electric and magnetic fields leads to a significant portion of ions becoming trapped near the neutral sheet and, in this way, to the formation of a wider configuration with an embedded thin current sheet. The population of trapped particles produces diamagnetic negative currents that manifest in the form of negative wings at the periphery of the sheet. Correspondingly, in the direction perpendicular to the sheet, a nonmonotonic coordinate dependence of the magnetic field appears. The mechanisms of the evolution of the current sheet in the Earth’s magnetotail and the formation of a multiscale structure are discussed.     

Heating and acceleration of charged particles during magnetic dipolarizations

In this paper, we analyzed the thermal and energy characteristics of the plasma components observed during the magnetic dipolarizations in the near tail by the Cluster satellites. It was previously found that the first dipolarization the ratio of proton and electron temperatures (T _p/T _e) was ~6–7. At the time of the observation of the first dipolarization front T _p/T _e decreases by up to ~3–4. The minimum value T _p/T _e (~2.0) is observed behind the front during the turbulent dipolarization phase. Decreases in T _p/T _e observed at this time are associated with an increase in T _e, whereas the proton temperature either decreases or remains unchanged. Decreases of the value T _p/T _e during the magnetic dipolarizations coincide with increase in wave activity in the wide frequency band up to electron gyrofrequency f _ce. High-frequency modes can resonantly interact with electrons causing their heating. The acceleration of ions with different masses up to energies of several hundred kiloelectron-volts is also observed during dipolarizations. In this case, the index of the energy spectrum decreases (a fraction of energetic ions increases) during the enhancement of low-frequency electromagnetic fluctuations at frequencies that correspond to the gyrofrequency of this ion component. Thus, we can conclude that the processes of the interaction between waves and particles play an important role in increasing the energy of plasma particles during magnetic dipolarizations.     

Sporadic structures and small-scale irregularity in the nighttime polar ionosphere in the period of high solar activity according to the data of radio occultation measurements on satellite-to-satellite paths

Results of the analysis of 327 sessions of radio occultation on satellite-to-satellite paths are presented. The data are taken in the nighttime polar ionosphere in the regions with latitudes of 67°–88°, and in the period of high solar activity from October 26, 2003 to November 9, 2003. Typical ionospheric changes in the amplitude and phase of decimeter radio waves on paths GPS satellites-CHAMP satellite are presented. It is demonstrated that these data make it possible to determine characteristics of the sporadic E _s structures in the lower ionosphere at heights of 75–120 km. Histograms of distribution of the lower and upper boundaries, thickness, and intensity of the E _s structures are presented. Dispersion and spectra of amplitude fluctuations of decimeter radio waves caused by small-scale irregularity of the ionospheric plasma are analyzed. The relation of the polar E _s structures and intensity of small-scale plasma irregularity to various manifestations of solar activity is discussed. The efficiency of monitoring the ionospheric disturbances caused by shock waves of the solar wind by the radio occultation method on satellite-to-satellite paths is demonstrated.     

Solar activity index for long-term ionospheric forecasts

Based on the comparison of solar activity indices (annual average values of the relative number of sunspots Rz₁₂ and solar radio emission flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm F₁₂) with the ionospheric index of solar activity IG₁₂ for 1954–2013, we have found that the index F₁₂ is a more accurate (than Rz₁₂) indicator of solar activity for the long-term forecast of foF2 (the critical frequency of the F2-layer). This advantage of the F₁₂ index becomes especially significant after 2000 if the specific features of extreme ultraviolet radiation of the Sun are additionally taken into account in the minima of solar cycles, using an appropriate correction to F₁₂. Qualitative arguments are given in favor of the use of F₁₂ for the long-term forecast of both foF2 and other ionospheric parameters.     

Diurnal and longitudinal variations in the earth’s ionosphere in the period of solstice in conditions of a deep minimum of solar activity

The results of studies of longitudinal and LT variations in parameters of the ionosphere–plasmasphere system, obtained using the Global Self-Consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere and Protonosphere (GSM TIP), assimilation ionospheric model IRI Real-Time Assimilation Mapping (IRTAM), and satellite and ground-based observational data are presented in the paper. The study of the main morphological features of longitudinal and LT variations in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2) and total electron content (TEC) depending on latitude in the winter solstice during a solar-activity minimum (December 22, 2009) is carried out. It is shown that the variations in foF2 and TEC, on the whole, are identical, and so mutually substitutable, while creating empirical models of these parameters in quiet geomagnetic conditions. The longitudinal and LT variations in both foF2 and TEC are within an order of magnitude everywhere except for the equator anomaly region, where LT variation is larger by an order of magnitude than longitudinal variation. According to the results of the study, in the American longitudinal sector at all latitudes of the Southern (summer) Hemisphere, maxima of foF2 and TEC are formed. The near-equatorial and high-latitudinal maxima are separated out from these. The estimate of the contribution into the longitudinal variation in foF2 and TEC for various local time sectors and at various latitudes has been obtained for the first time. In the Southern (summer) Hemisphere, longitudinal variation in foF2 and TEC is formed in the nighttime.     

Dynamics of electron fluxes in the slot between radiation belts in November–December 2014 according to data of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Vernov</Emphasis> satellite

The variations in the spatial structure and time in electron fluxes with E = 235–300 keV in the slot region (2 < L < 3) between the radiation belts in the period of November 1, 2014 through December 8, 2014 during weak and moderate geomagnetic disturbances (Kp < 4, Dst >–60 nT) are analyzed based on the data of the RELEC complex on board the Vernov satellite (the height and inclination of the orbit are from 640 to 830 km and 98.4°, respectively). Irregular increases in the fluxes of such electrons and formation of a local maximum at L ~ 2.2–3.0 were observed. It has been shown that the intensity of this maximum is inversely proportional to the L value and grows with an increase in the geomagnetic activity level. New features discovered for the first time in the dynamics of radiation belt electrons manifest in the variations in the local structure and dynamics of fluxes of subrelativistic electrons in the slot region.     

Numerical simulation of effects of the August 11, 1999 solar eclipse in the outer ionosphere

The results of a numerical simulation of such parameters of the topside ionosphere as concentration N _e and temperature T _e of electrons, and concentration n(H⁺) and fluxes along the magnetic field lines Φ(H⁺) of H⁺ ions at an altitude of ～2000 km for the conditions of the August 11, 1999 solar eclipse are presented. The calculations were performed using the Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, and Protonosphere of the Earth (GSM TIP). It is shown that during the eclipse, in addition to a region of decreased values of T _e in the Northern Hemisphere and in the magnetically conjugate region in the Southern Hemisphere, regions of electron heating emerge in both hemispheres. Simultaneously, an extended region of decreased values of N _e comes into existence and moves behind the Moon’s shadow. Regions with decreased (down to ～30%) and enhanced (up to ～50%) concentrations of H⁺ ions are detected in the global distribution of these ions.     

Large-scale irregularities of the winter polar topside ionosphere according to data from <Emphasis Type="Italic">Swarm</Emphasis> satellites

An analysis of the electron density measurements (Ne) along the flyby trajectories over the high-latitude region of the Northern Hemisphere under winter conditions in 2014 and 2016 has shown that the main large-scale structure observed by Swarm satellites is the tongue of ionization (TOI). At the maximum of the solar cycle (F_10.7 = 160), the average value of Ne in the TOI region at an altitude of 500 km was 8 × 10⁴ cm^–3. Two years later, at F_10.7 = 100, Ne ~ 5 × 10⁴ cm^–3 and Ne ~2.5 × 10⁴ cm^–3 were observed at altitudes of 470 and 530 km, respectively. During the dominance of the azimuthal component of the interplanetary magnetic field, the TOI has been observed mainly on the dawn or dusk side depending on the sign of B _y . Simultaneous observations of the convective plasma drift velocity in the polar cap show the transpolar flow drift to the dawn (B_y < 0) or dusk side (B _y < 0). Observations and numerical simulation of the Ne distribution have confirmed the significant role of the electric field of the magnetospheric convection in the generation of large-scale irregularities in the polar ionosphere.     

Plasma flow disturbances in the magnetospheric plasma sheet during substorm activations

We have considered variations in fields and particle fluxes in the near-Earth plasma sheet on the THEMIS-D satellite together with the auroral dynamics in the satellite-conjugate ionospheric part during two substorm activations on December 19, 2014 with K _p = 2. The satellite was at ~8.5R_E and MLT = 21.8 in the outer region of captured energetic particles with isotropic ion fluxes near the convection boundary of electrons with an energy of ~10 keV. During substorm activations, the satellite recorded energetic particle injections and magnetic field oscillations with a period of ~90 s. In the satellite-conjugate ionospheric part, the activations were preceded by wavelike disturbances of auroral brightness along the southern azimuthal arc. In the expansion phase of activations, large-scale vortex structures appeared in the structure of auroras. The sudden enhancements of auroral activity (brightening of arcs, auroral breakup, and appearance of NS forms) coincided with moments of local magnetic field dipolarization and an increase in the amplitude Pi2 of pulsations of the B_z component of the magnetic field on the satellite. Approximately 30–50 s before these moments, the magnetosphere was characterized by an increased rate of plasma flow in the radial direction, which initiated the formation of plasma vortices. The auroral activation delays relative to the times when plasma vortices appear in the magnetosphere decreased with decreasing latitude of the satellite projection. The plasma vortices in the magnetosphere are assumed to be responsible for the observed auroral vortex structures and the manifestation of the hybrid vortex instability (or shear flow ballooning instability) that develops in the equatorial magnetospheric plane in the presence of a shear plasma flow in the region of strong pressure gradients in the Earthward direction.     

Study of notches in the Earth’s plasmasphere based on data of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">MAGION-5</Emphasis> satellite

Depleted narrow (localized in longitude) regions (field tubes) in the plasmasphere, recently discovered in He⁺ radiation measurements on the IMAGE spacecraft, were first directly observed by the Magion-5 satellite. The low-density regions (notches) occupy <～ 10–30° in longitude and extend from L ～ 2–3 to the plasmasphere boundary in neighboring plasmasphere regions with larger densities. The Magion-5 data give evidence that in the low-density regions temperature is enhanced as compared to the neighboring denser plasmasphere regions. Formation of notches in the plasmasphere is, apparently, associated with AE intensification during weak magnetic storms, while strong magnetic storms usually result in the overall reduction of plasmasphere dimensions. However, even a strong magnetic storm on April 6–7, 2000 (max K _p = 9-and min D _st ～ ?290 nT), but accompanied by an isolated AE impulse, resulted in a density decrease only in the longitudinally limited post-midnight sector of the plasmasphere.     

Energy dependence of the characteristic decay time of proton fluxes in solar cosmic ray events

Energetic solar proton events within the energy interval 1–48 MeV at the stage of their decay are considered over the period of 1974–2001. The dependence of the characteristic decay time on the proton energy in the assumed power-law representation τ(E) =E ^?n is analyzed for the events with an exponential decay form. The dependence of n on the heliolongitude of the flare (the particles source on the Sun) is studied.     

On the Accuracy of the Conjugation of High-Orbit Satellites with Small-Scale Regions in the Ionosphere

The degree of uncertainty that arises when mapping high-orbit satellites of the Cluster type into the ionosphere using three geomagnetic field models (T89, T98, and T01) has been estimated. Studies have shown that uncertainty is minimal in situations when a satellite in the daytime is above the equatorial plane of the magnetosphere at the distance of no more than 5 R_E from the Earth’s surface and is projected into the ionosphere of the northern hemisphere. In this case, the dimensions of the uncertainty region are about 50 km, and the arbitrariness of the choice of the model for projecting does not play a decisive role in organizing satellite support based on optical observations when studying such large-scale phenomena as, e.g., WTS, as well as heating experiments at the EISCAT heating facility for the artificial modification of the ionosphere and the generation of artificial fluctuations in the VLF band. In all other cases, the uncertainty in determining the position of the base of the field line on which the satellite is located is large, and additional information is required to correctly compare the satellite with the object in the ionosphere.     

Effect of reflected ions on the formation of the structure of interplanetary quasi-perpendicular shocks for Mach numbers lower than the first critical mach number

Based on the data of the BMSW instrument installed on the of SPEKTR-R spacecraft, as well as according to the data of instruments of the WIND spacecraft, etc., using two examples, the paper has studied the role of ions reflected from the front and associated structural features of quasi-perpendicular interplanetary shocks (IS) with the Alfvén Mach number М _A lower than the first critical Mach number М _c1 . It has been shown that BSs with the finite parameter 0.1 < β₁ < 1 contain a small fraction of reflected protons, which play a significant role in forming the front structure (β₁ is the ratio of gas-to-magnetic pressure before the shock front). In particular, in the case of a perpendicular shock recorded on August 24, 2013 (the angle between the magnetic field direction and the normal to the front θ_Bn ≈ 85°), an IS with a small Mach number (М_A ≈ 1.4) and small β₁ ≈ 0.2 is shown that the interactions of reflected ions with inflowing solar wind may result in the collisionless heating of ions in front of and behind it. The case of the oblique (θ_Bn = 63°) IS on April 19, 2014 with a small Mach number (М ^A ≈ 1.2) and small β₁ ≈ 0.5 has been investigated. It has been found that, before the front, there is a sequence of trains of magnetosonic waves, the amplitude of which decreases to zero upon increasing their distance from the front. The mechanism of their formation is associated with the development of instability caused by the ions reflected from the front.