Cosmogenic Radionuclides as an Extension of the Neutron Monitor Era into the Past: Potential and Limitations

The cosmogenic radionuclides, ¹⁰Be, ¹⁴C and others, provide a record of the paleo-cosmic radiation that extends >10,000 years into the past. They are the only quantitative means at our disposal to study the heliosphere prior to the commencement of routine sunspot observations in the 17th century. The cosmogenic radionuclides are primarily produced by secondary neutrons generated by the galactic cosmic radiation, and can be regarded, in a sense, as providing an extrapolation of the neutron monitor era into the past. However, their characteristics are quite different from the man-made neutron monitor in several important respects: (1) they are sensitive to somewhat lower cosmic ray energies; (2) their temporal resolution is ～1 to 2 years, being determined by the rapidity with which they are sequestered in ice, biological, or other archives; (3) the statistical precision for annual data is very poor (～19%); however it is quite adequate (～5% for 22-year averages) to study the large variations (±40%) that have occurred in the paleo-cosmic ray record in the past between grand solar minima and maxima. The data contains “noise” caused by local meteorological effects, and longer-term climate effects, and the use of principal component analysis to separate these “system” effects from production effects is outlined. The concentrations of ¹⁰Be decreased by a factor of two at the commencement of Holocene, the present-day “interglacial”, due to a 100% increase in the ice accumulation rates in polar regions. The use of the ¹⁰Be flux to study heliospheric properties during the last glacial is discussed briefly.     

Cosmic Rays in the Inner Heliosphere: Insights from Observations, Theory and Models

The global modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the inner heliosphere is determined by four major mechanisms: convection, diffusion, particle drifts (gradient, curvature and current sheet drifts), and adiabatic energy losses. When these processes combine to produce modulation, the complexity increases significantly especially when one wants to describe how they evolve spatially in all three dimensions throughout the heliosphere, and with time, as a function of solar activity over at least 22 years. In this context also the global structure and features of the solar wind, the heliospheric magnetic field, the wavy current sheet, and of the heliosphere and its interface with the interstellar medium, play important roles. Space missions have contributed significantly to our knowledge during the past decade. In the inner heliosphere, Ulysses and several other missions have contributed to establish the relative importance of these major mechanisms, leading to renewed interest in developing more sophisticated theories and numerical models to explain these observations, and to understand the underlying physics that determines galactic cosmic ray modulation at Earth. An overview is given of some of the observational and modeling highlights over the past decade.     

The Heliospheric Magnetic Field and Its Extension to the Inner Heliosheath

The general structure of the heliospheric magnetic field is well known and has been extensively studied, mostly in the inner heliosphere, out to the orbit of Saturn. Beyond 10 AU, the Pioneer and now the Voyager spacecraft have provided a view of the outer heliosphere. Its structure is strongly affected by large-scale phenomena originating in the Sun’s activity, such as the pattern of fast and slow solar wind streams around solar minimum that lead to Corotating Interaction Regions, and the increased frequency and strength of Coronal Mass Ejections around solar maximum. The large current sheet that separates the dominant magnetic polarities in the heliospheric medium, the Heliospheric Current Sheet, provides a variable structure that evolves from a relatively simple geometry close to the solar equatorial plane to what is likely to be a highly complex and dynamic surface reaching to high heliolatitudes at high levels of solar activity. The magnetic field observed in a fluctuating, dynamical heliosheath differs considerably from that in a static heliosheath. In particular, the time between current-sheet crossings (sectors) is quite sensitive to the radial speed of the solar-wind termination shock. If an inwardly moving termination shock moves past an observer on a slowly moving spacecraft, the time between current-sheet crossings in the heliosheath becomes larger, and can become very large, for reasonably expected inward shock speeds. This effect may help to explain recent observations of the magnetic field from the Voyager 1 spacecraft, where, in the heliosheath, the magnetic field remained directed outward from the Sun for several months without a current-sheet crossing. The crossings finally resumed and now occur somewhat regularly. In addition, the magnetic fluctuations in the heliosheath are observed to be quite different from those in the supersonic upstream solar wind.     

Composition of Anomalous Cosmic Rays

The “classic” anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) component originates as interstellar neutral atoms that drift into the heliosphere, become ionized and picked up by the solar wind, and carried to the outer heliosphere where the pickup ions are accelerated to hundreds of MeV, presumably at the solar wind termination shock. These interstellar ACRs are predominantly singly charged, although higher charge states are present and become dominant above ～350 MeV. Their isotopic composition is like that of the solar system and unlike that of the source of galactic cosmic rays. A comparison of their energy spectra with the estimated flux of pickup ions flowing into the termination shock reveals a mass-dependent acceleration efficiency that favors heavier ions. There is also a heliospheric ACR component as evidenced by “minor” ACR ions, such as Na, Mg, S, and Si that appear to be singly-ionized ions from a source likely in the outer heliosphere.     

Tropospheric New Particle Formation and the Role of Ions

The Suprathermal Electron (STE) instrument, part of the IMPACT investigation on both spacecraft of NASA’s STEREO mission, is designed to measure electrons from ～2 to ～100 keV. This is the primary energy range for impulsive electron/³He-rich energetic particle events that are the most frequently occurring transient particle emissions from the Sun, for the electrons that generate solar type III radio emission, for the shock accelerated electrons that produce type II radio emission, and for the superhalo electrons (whose origin is unknown) that are present in the interplanetary medium even during the quietest times. These electrons are ideal for tracing heliospheric magnetic field lines back to their source regions on the Sun and for determining field line lengths, thus probing the structure of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and of the ambient inner heliosphere. STE utilizes arrays of small, passively cooled thin window silicon semiconductor detectors, coupled to state-of-the-art pulse-reset front-end electronics, to detect electrons down to ～2 keV with about 2 orders of magnitude increase in sensitivity over previous sensors at energies below ～20 keV. STE provides energy resolution of ΔE/E～10–25% and the angular resolution of ～20° over two oppositely directed ～80°×80° fields of view centered on the nominal Parker spiral field direction.     

The Solar Wind Charge-eXchange Contribution to the Local Soft X-ray Background

The major sources of the Soft X-ray Background (SXRB), besides distinct structures as supernovae and superbubbles (e.g. Loop I), are: (i) an absorbed extragalactic emission following a power law, (ii) an absorbed thermal component (～2×10⁶ K) from the galactic disk and halo, (iii) an unabsorbed thermal component, supposedly at 10⁶ K, attributed to the Local Bubble and (iv) the very recently identified unabsorbed Solar Wind Charge-eXchange (SWCX) emission from the heliosphere and the geocorona. We study the SWCX heliospheric component and its contribution to observed data. In a first part, we apply a SWCX heliospheric simulation to model the oxygen lines (3/4 keV) local intensities during shadowing observations of the MBM 12 molecular cloud and a dense filament in the south galactic hemisphere with Chandra, XMM-Newton, and Suzaku telescopes. In a second part, we present a preliminary comparison of SWCX model results with ROSAT and Wisconsin surveys data in the 1/4 keV band. We conclude that, in the 3/4 keV band, the total local intensity is entirely heliospheric, while in the 1/4 keV band, the heliospheric component seems to contribute significantly to the local SXRB intensity and has potentially a strong influence on the interpretation of the ROSAT and Wisconsin surveys data in terms of Local Bubble hot gas temperature.     

Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP): A New NASA Mission

The Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) is a revolutionary mission that simultaneously investigates two of the most important overarching issues in Heliophysics today: the acceleration of energetic particles and interaction of the solar wind with the local interstellar medium. While seemingly disparate, these are intimately coupled because particles accelerated in the inner heliosphere play critical roles in the outer heliospheric interaction. Selected by NASA in 2018, IMAP is planned to launch in 2024. The IMAP spacecraft is a simple sun-pointed spinner in orbit about the Sun-Earth L1 point. IMAP’s ten instruments provide a complete and synergistic set of observations to simultaneously dissect the particle injection and acceleration processes at 1 AU while remotely probing the global heliospheric interaction and its response to particle populations generated by these processes. In situ at 1 AU, IMAP provides detailed observations of solar wind electrons and ions; suprathermal, pickup, and energetic ions; and the interplanetary magnetic field. For the outer heliosphere interaction, IMAP provides advanced global observations of the remote plasma and energetic ions over a broad energy range via energetic neutral atom imaging, and precise observations of interstellar neutral atoms penetrating the heliosphere. Complementary observations of interstellar dust and the ultraviolet glow of interstellar neutrals further deepen the physical understanding from IMAP. IMAP also continuously broadcasts vital real-time space weather observations. Finally, IMAP engages the broader Heliophysics community through a variety of innovative opportunities. This paper summarizes the IMAP mission at the start of Phase A development.     

Sources of Solar Wind at Solar Minimum: Constraints from Composition Data

In this discussion of observational constraints on the source regions and acceleration processes of solar wind, we will focus on the ionic composition of the solar wind and the distribution of charge states of heavy elements such as oxygen and iron. We first focus on the now well-known bi-modal nature of solar wind, which dominates the heliosphere at solar minimum: Compositionally cool solar wind from polar coronal holes over-expands, filling a much larger solid angle than the coronal holes on the Sun. We use a series of remote and in-situ characteristics to derive a global geometric expansion factor of?～5. Slower, streamer-associated wind is located near the heliospheric current sheet with a width of 10–20°, but in a well-defined band with a geometrically small transition width. We then compute charge states under the assumption of thermal electron distributions and temperature, velocity, and density profiles predicted by a recent solar wind model, and conclude that the solar wind originates from a hot source at around 1 million?K, characteristic of the closed corona.     

Anomalous and Galactic Cosmic Rays at 1 AU During the Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum

Anomalous cosmic ray (ACR) intensities at 1 AU at solar minimum generally track galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensities such as those measured by neutron monitors, albeit with differences between solar polarity cycles. The unusual cycle 23/24 solar minimum was long-lasting with very low sunspot numbers and significantly reduced interplanetary magnetic field strength and solar wind dynamic pressure and turbulence, but also featured a heliospheric current sheet tilt that remained high for an extended period. Peak ACR intensities did not recover to the maximum values reached during the last two A>0 solar minima and just barely reached the last A<0 levels. However, GCR intensities in 2009 (neutron monitor rates and also at ～200 MeV/nucleon) were the highest recorded during the last 50 years, indicating their intensities were not as heavily modulated during their transport from the outer heliosphere. This unexpected difference in the behavior of ACRs and GCRs remains unexplained, but suggests that either the ACR source intensity may have weakened since the last A<0 epoch, or perhaps that ACR intensities at 1 AU in the ecliptic may be more sensitive than GCRs to the higher tilt angle. This seems plausible if the ACR source intensity is greater at low latitudes during A<0 cycles, while the GCR distribution at the heliospheric boundary is more uniform in latitude. Shortly after an abrupt increase in the current sheet tilt angle in late 2009, both ACR and GCR intensities showed dramatic decreases, marking the end of solar minimum modulation conditions for this cycle.     

Physical Causes of Solar Activity

The magnetic fields that dominate the structure of the Sun's atmosphere are controlled by processes in the solar interior, which cannot be directly observed. Magnetic activity is found in all stars with deep convective envelopes: young and rapidly rotating stars are very active but cyclic activity only appears in slow rotators. The Sun's 11-year activity cycle corresponds to a 22-year magnetic cycle, since the sunspot fields (which are antisymmetric about the equator) reverse at each minimum. The record of magnetic activity is aperiodic and is interrupted by episodes of reduced activity, such as the Maunder Minimum in the seventeenth century, when sunspots almost completely disappeared. The proxy record from cosmogenic isotopes shows that similar grand minima recur at intervals of around 200 yr. The Sun's large-scale field is generated by dynamo action rather than by an oscillator. Systematic magnetic cycles are apparently produced by a dynamo located in a region of weak convective overshoot at the base of the convection zone, where there are strong radial gradients in the angular velocity . The crucial parameter (the dynamo number) increases with increasing and kinematic (linear) theory shows that dynamo action can set in at an oscillatory (Hopf) bifurcation that is probably subcritical. Although it has been demonstrated that the whole process works in a self-consistent model, most calculations have relied on mean-field dynamo theory. This approach is physically plausible but can only be justified under conditions that do not apply in the Sun. Still, mean-field dynamos do reproduce the butterfly diagram and other key features of the solar cycle. An alternative approach is to study generic behaviour in low-order models, which exhibit two forms of modulation, associated with symmetry-breaking and with reduced activity. Comparison with observed behaviour suggests that modulation of the solar cycle is indeed chaotic, i.e. deterministically rather than stochastically driven.     

Solar Drivers of 11-yr and Long-Term Cosmic Ray Modulation

In the current paradigm for the modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), diffusion is taken to be the dominant process during solar maxima while drift dominates at minima. Observations during the recent solar minimum challenge the pre-eminence of drift at such times. In 2009, the ～2 GV GCR intensity measured by the Newark neutron monitor increased by ～5% relative to its maximum value two cycles earlier even though the average tilt angle in 2009 was slightly larger than that in 1986 (～20° vs. ～14°), while solar wind B was significantly lower (～3.9 nT vs. ～5.4 nT). A decomposition of the solar wind into high-speed streams, slow solar wind, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs; including post-shock flows) reveals that the Sun transmits its message of changing magnetic field (diffusion coefficient) to the heliosphere primarily through CMEs at solar maximum and high-speed streams at solar minimum. Long-term reconstructions of solar wind B are in general agreement for the ～1900-present interval and can be used to reliably estimate GCR intensity over this period. For earlier epochs, however, a recent ¹⁰Be-based reconstruction covering the past ～10⁴ years shows nine abrupt and relatively short-lived drops of B to ?0 nT, with the first of these corresponding to the Spörer minimum. Such dips are at variance with the recent suggestion that B has a minimum or floor value of ～2.8 nT. A floor in solar wind B implies a ceiling in the GCR intensity (a permanent modulation of the local interstellar spectrum) at a given energy/rigidity. The 30–40% increase in the intensity of 2.5 GV electrons observed by Ulysses during the recent solar minimum raises an interesting paradox that will need to be resolved.     

Modulation of Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere From Solar Minimum to Maximum: a Theoretical Perspective

The modulation of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere seems to be dominated by four major mechanisms: convection, diffusion, drifts (gradient, curvature and current sheet), and adiabatic energy losses. In this regard the global structure of the solar wind, the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), the current sheet (HCS), and that of the heliosphere itself play major roles. Individually, the four mechanisms are well understood, but in combination, the complexity increases significantly especially their evolvement with time - as a function of solar activity. The Ulysses observations contributed significantly during the past solar minimum modulation period to establish the relative importance of these major mechanisms, leading to renewed interest in developing more sophisticated numerical models, and in the underlying physics, e.g., what determines the diffusion tensor. With increased solar activity, the relative contributions of the mentioned mechanisms change, but how they change and what causes these changes over an 11-year solar cycle is not well understood. It can therefore be expected that present and forthcoming observations during solar maximum activity will again produce very important insights into the causes of long-term modulation. In this paper the basic theory of solar modulation is reviewed for galactic cosmic rays. The influence of the Ulysses observations on the development of the basic theory and numerical models are discussed, especially those that have challenged the theory and models. Model-based predictions are shown for what might be encountered during the next solar minimum. Lastly, modulation theory and modelling are discussed for periods of maximum solar activity when a global reorganization of the HMF, and the HCS, occurs. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Solar Cycle Forecasting

Predicting the behavior of a solar cycle after it is well underway (2–3 years after minimum) can be done with a fair degree of skill using auto-regression and curve fitting techniques that don’t require any knowledge of the physics involved. Predicting the amplitude of a solar cycle near, or before, the time of solar cycle minimum can be done using precursors such as geomagnetic activity and polar fields that do have some connection to the physics but the connections are uncertain and the precursors provide less reliable forecasts. Predictions for the amplitude of cycle 24 using these precursor techniques give drastically different values. Recently, dynamo models have been used directly with assimilated data to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle 24 but have also given significantly different predictions. While others have questioned both the predictability of the solar cycle and the ability of current dynamo models to provide predictions, it is clear that cycle 24 will help to discriminate between some opposing dynamo models.     

The Dynamic Heliosphere: Outstanding Issues

Properties of the heliospheric interface, a complex product of an interaction between charged and neutral particles and magnetic fields in the heliosphere and surrounding Circumheliospheric Medium, are far from being fully understood. Recent Voyager spacecraft encounters with the termination shock and their observations in the heliosheath revealed multiple energetic particle populations and noticeable spatial asymmetries not accounted for by the classic theories. Some of the challenges still facing space physicists include the origin of anomalous cosmic rays, particle acceleration downstream of the termination shock, the role of interstellar magnetic fields in producing the global asymmetry of the interface, the influence of charge exchange and interstellar neutral atoms on heliospheric plasma flows, and the signatures of solar magnetic cycle in the heliosheath. These and other outstanding issues are reviewed in this joint report of working groups 4 and 6.     

Solar Wind Sources and Their Variations Over the Solar Cycle

In this paper I will briefly summarize the present status of our knowledge on the four different sorts of solar wind, their sources and their short- and long-term variations. First: the fast solar wind in high-speed streams that emerges from coronal hole regions. Second: the slow solar wind emerging from the non-active Sun near the global heliospheric current sheet above helmet streamers and underlying active regions. Third: the slow solar wind filling most of the heliosphere during high solar activity, emerging above active regions in a highly turbulent state, and fourth: the plasma expelled from the Sun during coronal mass ejections. The coronal sources of these different flows vary dramatically with the solar activity cycle.     

Magnetic Fields in the Inner Heliosphere

The structure of Heliospheric Magnetic Field (HMF) is a function of both the coronal conditions from which it originates and dynamic processes which take place in the solar wind. The division between the inner and outer regions of the heliosphere is the result of dynamic processes which form large scale structures with increasing heliocentric distance. The structure of the HMF is normally described in the reference frame based on Parker's geometric model, but is better understood as an extension of potential field models of the corona. The Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS) separates the two dominant polarities in the heliosphere; its large scale geometry near solar minimum is well understood but its topology near solar maximum remains to be investigated by Ulysses. At solar minimum, Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) dominate the near-equatorial heliosphere and extend their influence to mid-latitudes; the polar regions of the heliosphere are dominated by uniform fast solar wind streams and large amplitude, long wavelength, mostly transverse magnetic fluctuations. Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) introduce transient variability into the large scale heliospheric structure and may dominate the inner heliosphere near solar maximum at all latitudes.     

Cosmic Rays Through the Solar Hale Cycle

The Ulysses spacecraft had been the first to orbit the Sun over its poles and to explore the heliosphere at these high heliolatitudes. It has now completed three fast latitude scans, two at solar minimum and one at solar maximum. Since its launch in October 1990, this mission has led to several surprising discoveries concerning energetic particles, cosmic rays, Jovian electrons, the solar wind, the heliospheric magnetic field and the global features of the heliosphere. This review addresses the propagation and modulation of cosmic rays and other charged particles from an observational point of view with emphasis on what has been learned from exploring the inner heliosphere to high heliolatitudes.     

Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere: Requirements for Future Observations

Since the publication of Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere in 1998 there has been great progress in understanding how and why cosmic rays vary in space and time. This paper discusses measurements that are needed to continue advances in relating cosmic ray variations to changes in solar and interplanetary activity and variations in the local interstellar environment. Cosmic ray acceleration and transport is an important discipline in space physics and astrophysics, but it also plays a critical role in defining the radiation environment for humans and hardware in space, and is critical to efforts to unravel the history of solar activity. Cosmic rays are measured directly by balloon-borne and space instruments, and indirectly by ground-based neutron, muon and neutrino detectors, and by measurements of cosmogenic isotopes in ice cores, tree-rings, sediments, and meteorites. The topics covered here include: what we can learn from the deep 2008–2009 solar minimum, when cosmic rays reached the highest intensities of the space era; the implications of ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C isotope archives for past and future solar activity; the effects of variations in the size of the heliosphere; opportunities provided by the Voyagers for discovering the origin of anomalous cosmic rays and measuring cosmic-ray spectra in interstellar space; and future space missions that can continue the exciting exploration of the heliosphere that has occurred over the past 50 years.