Commercial space development

A panel session on ‘Creative approaches to commercial joint ventures in space’ took place at the American Society of Public Administration National Conference, 28 March 1 April 1987. This report highlights the comments made by the panelists¹ on the steps NASA and US industry can take together to ensure US space leadership.     

Current status of the Russian space programme

This paper surveys the status of Russian space activities in terms of budget, operational satellite systems, workforce and industrial capabilities. There is inequality between companies and particularly between various tiers of cooperation in production. In the current situation international cooperation, both in the form of joint non-commercial ventures and integration into the global space market, is considered vital for sustaining national space capabilities.     

China''s space policy: review and prospects

This article reviews the current status of the Chinese space programme, covering its military origins, launchers, applications satellites, manned spaceflight and exploration. It examines the growing commercialization of China's space activities and how far this is likely to be successful, especially in the light of MTCR constraints and other legal regulations. It is nonetheless concluded that commercialization, along with joint ventures with foreign companies, has been crucial to the development of China's space programme. However, the country still lacks the resources to become a first-rank space power.     

Prospects for Euro-Indian space cooperation

This is the executive summary of a report prepared for the European Commission by LD consultants on the status of India's space industry and the prospects for European firms to invest in it. India has impressive launch capabilities, telecommunications and disaster warning satellites but commercialization of its activities is occurring only slowly. There are many opportunities for joint ventures with Europe (which must not let the USA consolidate its superior position in the broadcasting field) but issues of technology transfer and India's unhappiness with the MTRC must first be resolved. As well as selling products and services, Europeans should also be prepared to buy those Indian components that are available more competitively.     

US government policy - the major factor shaping the international commercial space launch marketplace

In this Viewpoint — an edited version of a statement made to the US House Committee on Science's Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics' hearing on ‘US launch strategy’ — the President of Arianespace, Inc analyses the overriding importance of US government policies and executive decisions on the shaping and behavior of the international market in commercial space launch services. Chief among these is the overruling of commercial imperatives by foreign policy and national security interests and the consequent regular intervention of the US government in launch decisions. The ability of Arianespace successfully to compete in a market severely distorted as a result of these interventions, including the encouragement of joint ventures between US and Russian or Ukrainian companies, is explained.     

Privatization and militarization in the space business environment

Space business competition is presently fueled by two paradoxical phenomena. First, accelerated privatization of space projects leads to the militarization of outer space. Second, this militarization process in turn leads to the increased control of space ventures by a handful of nations. In other words, commerce and the military are going hand in hand to assert national objectives in outer space, no matter what space treaties and international agreements might say, so far. This could be detrimental to the multilateral cooperation spirit that should prevail in many, if not all, outer space ventures, as a consequence of the uniqueness of that environment.     

Communications satellite business ventures : Measuring the impact of technology programmes and related policies

Both commercial organizations and government agencies invest in spacecraft technology programmes aimed at increasing the performance of communications satellites. Government agencies also make policy decisions which may affect communications satellite business ventures. This article describes an economic evaluation and planning tool which has been developed to assess the impact of various policies on typical fixed satellite service business ventures. The methodology is based upon a stochastic financial simulation model (DOMSAT II) which allows for consideration of reliability and various market, performance and cost uncertainties. Results of the assessment of NASA on-orbit and space power technology programmes are presented, as are results of insurance v self insurance decisions and the choice of transportation system.     

Changing patterns of international cooperation in space: The Soviet factor

The new Soviet glasnost regarding international cooperation in space will clearly be one of several factors affecting traditional patterns of cooperation in the future. This article examines how the Soviet posture towards cooperation in international space ventures has changed, why the changes have occurred, and the probable consequences of those changes on traditional patterns of international cooperation in space.     

Developing countries and space: From awareness to participation

As space commercialization is becoming a reality, and with the growing tendency for such activity to be transferred to the private sector, it is time for developing countries to assume a role in space. Space law could be of help if the interpretation of terms such as ‘common heritage’ were agreed on and sensible rules for the regulation of competition in space elaborated. But it is up to the developing states themselves to become aware of the situation, educate their public and train their personnel through participation in cooperative space ventures with the developed world.     

Buying Russian technology — pros and cons for the US programme

A marriage between Russian space technology and US space ambitions was unthinkable only a short time ago, but that potential union is now the talk of the town. With the dizzying pace of changes in US-Russian relationships, what is written here in July 1992 may well have changed by the time this article is published. Nevertheless, a glance at what the Russians are selling, what the USA may want to buy and the major policy issues involved is worth a look. Traditional cooperative ventures remain an important part of US-Russian space relations, but are not the focus of this article.     

Space technology in the third world : Commercialization and the spread of ballistic missiles

The recent enthusiastic initiatives in the USA to commercialize space activities are also likely to facilitate and accelerate Third World ventures in space. This article outlines the history of Third World space activities and points to the danger that these nations will use satellite launch technology for military applications. Competitive economic and political pressures are aiding the migration of older missile technology to Third World Nations. The author argues for the establishment of an International Missile Technology Regime, which would limit the transfer of space launch technology to nations which are in full compliance with the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.     

Exploration for the masses? Or joyrides for the ultra-rich? Prospects for space tourism

A space tourism industry appears to be about to take off. Businesses have announced plans to launch people into suborbital space for $200,000/person, with flights beginning as early as 2008. A brief review of the history of the idea of space tourism over the past four decades—and an awareness that many ventures have quietly shelved their grandiose plans—might aid thinking about the prospects for development of a safe and thriving space tourism industry. Today's space tourism model emphases the concept of luxury, and the lifestyle of hyper-consumption. It may be worth considering whether and how this conception of space tourism might affect the future of space exploration.     

International space exploration: Cooperative or competitive?

France and the USA have in the past enjoyed a close and fruitful cooperative relationship in space but there is now a growing divergence between apparent US priorities for future activity and those of other countries, for whom human spaceflight is not so important. While accepting that it cannot match the USA technologically, Europe is increasingly sceptical of the wisdom of pursuing space cooperation with its given difficulties caused by the ITAR regime, greater suspicion of anything foreign in the USA and the unwillingness of NASA ever to cede a critical path to a partner. Nor are any of the non-space ventures currently being suggested as cooperation models attractive from a European point of view. A better way forward would be to have conglomerates of nations cooperating on an equal footing and avoiding recourse to US State Department-regulated technology.     

Russian space commercialization - getting the banks involved

While the world market for space goods and services has grown enormously and continues to do so, Russia's meagre share of it is out of all proportion to its technological and intellectual base. This was initially the fault of its rigid political system, which has made it hard for companies to adapt to a market economy. This viewpoint argues that Russia's banks, which have played a major role in the country's economic reforms, should be encouraged to invest in its space industry. In particular they could finance the ‘space education’ of the business community and fund surveys and feasibility studies. In the long term this could generate large profits and would improve their standing in the world. Ultimately they might join specialist international bank associations set up to finance cooperative ventures.     

International coordination in the era of faster, better, cheaper

Space agencies around the world are seeking innovative approaches to reduce the time and expense of space-based activities, including observation of the Earth and acquisition of environmental data for Earth science research. As government budgets are squeezed, agencies search for innovative approaches to streamline program management, introduce new technology, and share costs with external partners. International cooperation has been a mainstay of Earth observation activity from the beginning of space exploration. It continues to be true that global problems require global solutions, and governments recognize the need to share the investment in understanding and monitoring the planet. Agencies need to carefully consider how changes in their program development and management practices might impact cooperative ventures. Improved communication, enhanced strategic planning, and coordinated rather than comprehensive missions are all tools agencies can use to maintain or improve partnerships.     

基于接触理论的一类带锁定机构的间隙铰链分析模型研究

重点研究一类在我国航天器上得到广泛应用的带有锁定机构的间隙铰链，基于接触理论建立了该类型间隙铰链的分析模型。首先，将铰链零件间的接触力假设为单向的非线性弹簧，并将铰链简化为由非线性弹簧组约束的摆；然后。将展开扭簧假设为线性力矩弹簧，得到包含间隙影响的铰链的力矩-转角关系曲线。通过仿真分析和试验验证，认为铰链的力矩转角关系曲线是分段光滑的。是铰链结构尺寸、零件间隙以及材料特性的函数。呈现出明显的非线性特征。     

固体火箭发动机接头组合件三维弹塑性有限元分析

对固体发动机复合材料壳体接头组合件在内压作用下的应力变形进行了三雏有限元分析。分析了两种不同厚度的水压堵盖对结构变形的影响，考虑了螺栓、堵盖、接头等金属材料的塑性性质，复合材料按正交各向异性体处理。结果说明，在内压作用下，较厚的堵盖(40mm)和接头在外缘发生分离，使得接头肩部变形略大；而较薄的堵盖(28mm)与接头内缘发生分离，对密封结构不利。在内压作用下，复合材料和接头侧面也发生分离。该分析方法和结果可供接头及其密封设计提供参考。     

考虑在轨运动可靠性的空间机械臂关节力矩优化方法

提出一种考虑在轨运动可靠性的冗余度空间机械臂关节力矩优化方法。首先将机械臂操作空间中点到点的转移任务从笛卡尔空间转换至关节空间,利用七次多项式插值法对各关节变量进行参数化处理,获得粒子群算法的优化控制参数;与传统路径规划方法不同,将机械臂各关节力矩的均值和最小作为粒子群算法优化求解的目标函数;依据该目标函数以及相应优化控制参数,利用粒子群算法对空间机械臂运行轨迹进行优化求解,得到机械臂关节力矩均值和最小的运行路径。仿真实验表明,相比传统路径规划方法及以关节力矩二范数为目标函数的关节力矩优化方法,在降低冗余度空间机械臂关节力矩均值方面,文中方法分别减小了33.57%和10.47%;在降低关节力矩最大值方面,分别减小了43.25%和6.19%。     

太阳翼铰链结构的动力学实验与非线性动力学建模

通过动力学实验获得真实的太阳翼板间铰链结构于不同激振频率下的振动响应参数,并采用力状态映射法建立板间铰链的非线性动力学模型。首先,采用单频激励信号模拟外扰对实际的板间铰链结构实施动力学实验;然后,基于其结构具有的多重非线性动力学特性,根据实验数据应用力状态映射法辨识结构的动力学参数,建立其非线性动力学模型;最后,对由太阳翼板间铰链连接的两段梁所构成的系统进行了冲击激励下的振动响应测试,同时进行了有限元动力学仿真,实验测试结果和数值仿真结果取得了较好的一致性。本文建立的太阳翼板间铰链非线性动力学模型能够较好地反映其动力学特性,对于实际太阳翼结构的动力学建模具有理论参考价值。     

Evaluating the economic impact of design alternatives on domestic communication satellite ventures

What are the economic consequences of establishing a domestic communication satellite venture? Has the best design alternative been selected? Should investments be made to develop new technology? How much should be invested? These are but some of the questions facing those concerned with providing domestic communication satellite services. Because of the demand, performance and cost uncertainties and the unpredictability of the need for and timing of large capital expenditures (due to less than perfect reliability of transportation systems and satellites) providing answers to these and other related questions is a complex process.This paper describes a methodology for providing answers to the above questions. The methodology, by explicitly considering demand, performance and cost uncertainties and satellite and transportation system reliability, develops probabilistic pro forma financial analyses of domestic communication satellite system ventures. In so doing, the risk dimension is quantified and alternative courses of action can be evaluated and compared taking into account expected values, risk and risk aversion preferences. It is also important to quantify and consider the risk dimension since many R &; D projects are specifically aimed at risk reduction.