Aircraft air conditioning system health state estimation and prediction for predictive maintenance

The vast potential of system health monitoring and condition based maintenance on modern commercial aircraft is being realized through the innovative use of Airplane Condition Monitoring System (ACMS) data. However there are few methods addressing the issues of failure prognostics and predictive maintenance for commercial aircraft Air Conditioning System (ACS). This study developed a Bayesian failure prognostics approach using ACMS data for predictive maintenance of ACS. First, a health index characterizing the ACS health state is inferred from a multiple sensor signals using a data driven method. Then a dynamic linear model is proposed to describe the degradation process for failure prognostics. Bayesian inference formulas are carried out for degradation estimation and prediction. The developed approach is applied on a passenger aircraft fleet with ACMS data recorded for one year. The analysis of the case study shows that the developed method can produce satisfactory prognostics results, where all the ACS failure precursors are identified in advance, and the relative errors for the failure time prediction made when just entering the degradation warning stage are less than 8%. This would allow operators to proactively plan future maintenance.     

基于结构健康监测的飞机结构 MSG-3 分析

结构健康监测(SHM)技术被广泛引入到了飞机设计与维护,本文依据现阶段SHM技术的发展现状,将SHM技术与MSG-3分析思想融合,制定了一种针对采用SHM技术飞机结构的计划维修分析流程。     

复杂退化系统的组合维修策略优化

由于现有视情维修研究中没有考虑定期维护的影响,无法准确反映定期维护下的系统性能退化规律,因而不利于合理制定定期维护与视情维修组合的维修策略。针对该问题,重点开展了该组合维修策略下的性能退化建模与维修决策研究。通过结合组合维修策略下的性能退化特点,从失效机理出发,利用复合Poisson过程建立了性能退化模型,并通过退化强度函数描述了仅恢复累积性能退化量而不改变性能退化规律的维修效果。同时,分析了该条件下的可靠度函数,说明了其具有阶梯型变化和突变性的特性。基于性能退化模型,建立了长期运行条件下以费用率最低为目标、失效风险为约束的组合维修决策优化模型,并求解确定了最优维护周期和预防性维修阈值。通过数值分析,描述了费用率随维修策略值变化的规律,说明了优化解的存在性。同时,通过与系统自身寿命规律比较,说明采用该优化模型,可以有效地延长系统的使用时间,实时控制失效概率,确保其具有较高的安全等级,进而有效地降低维修费用。     

复合材料结构健康监测技术在飞机中的应用

结构健康监测(SHM)实现了工程结构设计与使用上的技术性跨越.将SHM应用于复合材料中,使得智能结构的设计与制造成为了现实.文章重点阐述了飞机复合材料结构SHM技术所面临的技术问题.SHM使飞机复合材料结构得视情维修以及降低其使用周期内成本成为可能,可以促使复合材料结构设计与制造的优化,最后指出了为实现复合材料SHMS所需要重点研究的理论与技术.     

Inspection processes must compliment systems inspected [aircraft maintenance]

If the goal is to improve either aviation or shuttle safety and systems reliability, then modern methods of wire systems diagnostics, prognostics, mediation, repair, and validation are a must. This requires using modern non-destructive evaluation (NDE) procedures and equipment which yields information that supports the operator's wire health management program and feeds into his aging aircraft or shuttle containment processes. Commonly used wire inspection processes do not compliment aircraft electrical systems making it difficult to diagnose wiring problems or manage wiring systems health. The wire inspection tools in common use today can be represented by the volt/ohm meter, the meg/ohm meter, and visual techniques. The two meters only measure conductivity, connectivity, and insulation breakdown strength. Visual techniques, mirror and flashlight methods only reach about 25% of the aircraft wiring and subjectively identify only physical faults of the insulation and simple damaged components. Little can be determined relative to the wire, insulation, bundle, connector, connector pins, backshell, wire supports, grounding, shielding, or intended electrical systems performance. All items where data is necessary to analyze and manage the health of the system. Guidance material is currently not available for the electrical repairman for even a simplified zonal inspection. The user community also reports gross shortcomings in the guidance supplied by the manufacture's maintenance and repair manuals.     

基于定期维护的产品维修策略研究

 维护是保持产品技术状态、降低失效发生的重要手段。通过分析维护对产品技术状态和失效变化规律的影响,利用复合Poisson过程描述了产品的维护效果,得到了定期维护条件下产品的寿命分布规律。在此基础上,提出了一种定期维护与视情维修相结合的维修策略,通过优化该维修策略下的产品维修费用,给出了最优的定期维护周期和预防性维修阈值。通过算例分析,表明该维修策略可以有效延长产品的维修间隔,从而大大减少产品全寿命期间的维修次数,产品在全寿命周期内的维修费用也得到了有效降低。     

多状态串并联系统结构与维修策略

为准确构建生产系统中系统结构与设备维修之间的关系,以串并联系统冗余分配问题（RAP）为基础,引入基于系统可靠性的机会维修策略与基于状态的检测间隔,建立了设备购置与维修费用最少为目标的系统结构与维修策略的联合模型,从而在保证系统生产效率和可用度的前提下,降低系统运行的总成本。利用半马尔可夫过程和通用生成函数（UGF）求解出系统在检测点上各状态的稳态概率、维修费用及可用度。通过算例表明,无论在系统设计之前还是在运行之后,将系统结构与维修策略综合考虑比分开考虑更具经济价值。     

Performance deterioration modeling and optimal preventive maintenance strategy under scheduled servicing subject to mission time

Servicing is applied periodically in practice with the aim of restoring the system state and prolonging the lifetime. It is generally seen as an imperfect maintenance action which has a chief influence on the maintenance strategy. In order to model the maintenance effect of servicing, this study analyzes the deterioration characteristics of system under scheduled servicing. And then the deterioration model is established from the failure mechanism by compound Poisson process. On the basis of the system damage value and failure mechanism, the failure rate refresh factor is proposed to describe the maintenance effect of servicing. A maintenance strategy is developed which combines the benefits of scheduled servicing and preventive maintenance. Then the optimization model is given to determine the optimal servicing period and preventive maintenance time, with an objective to minimize the system expected life-cycle cost per unit time and a constraint on system survival probability for the duration of mission time. Subject to mission time, it can control the ability of accomplishing the mission at any time so as to ensure the high dependability. An example of water pump rotor relating to scheduled servicing is introduced to illustrate the failure rate refresh factor and the proposed maintenance strategy. Compared with traditional methods, the numerical results show that the failure rate refresh factor can describe the maintenance effect of servicing more intuitively and objectively. It also demonstrates that this maintenance strategy can prolong the lifetime, reduce the total lifetime maintenance cost and guarantee the dependability of system.     

基于比例风险模型的航空发动机视情维修决策

基于航空发动机在翼监控信息来合理确定视情维修(CBM)决策是航空公司安全运营中的重要内容。本文利用Weibull比例风险回归的建模思想,分析了航空发动机因性能衰退而换发的历史监控数据记录,并据此建立了反映该类发动机性能参数与在翼时间之间的函数关系;进而采用最小维修成本、最大可用度策略确定最优维修决策阈值,为同类型在翼发动机进行维修决策的优化提供了一个客观的量化方法。最后对CF6型发动机历史故障数据进行了实例分析,表明该方法在发动机视情维修决策中的实用价值。      

混合数据及未知权值下的维修策略决策方法

采用模糊偏好规划法从模糊成对比较集中求取各属性的权值,然后应用基于随机优势和模糊数质心距的ELECTREⅢ方法来对备选维修策略进行排序,以确定最佳的维修策略.最后将其应用到航空发动机的维修策略决策中.结果表明,提出的方法能有效地解决混合数据及未知权值下的维修策略决策问题.      

民用飞机襟翼下沉铰链机构维护成本分析研究

民用飞机襟翼下沉铰链机构是一种被广泛采用的收放运动机构,其维护成本对运营经济性影响较大。针对民用飞机襟翼下沉铰链机构维护成本预计与实际运营差距较大的问题,基于MSG-3（Maintenance Steering Group 3）分析法提出一种维护成本预计方法。以损伤容限分析结果为参考数据,通过MSG-3 分析得到襟翼下沉铰链机构的检查方法、门槛值和检查间隔;根据维护任务的性质和来源,建立直接维护成本预计模型,对襟翼下沉铰链机构维护成本进行预计;以具体机型的襟翼下沉铰链机构为例,验证维护成本预计方法的可行性和有效性。结果表明：本文提出的维护成本预计方法能够较为全面地预计机体结构维护成本,相对其他方法更贴近实际运营。     

预防性维修任务可执行区间权衡确定方法研究

直接维修成本（DMC）是航空器制造商向运营人进行经济性担保的一项主要参数,是运营阶段监控维修成本的参考比较基准。提出一种兼顾考虑DMC担保值和计划维修要求所列维修间隔的预防性维修任务可执行区间权衡确定方法,分析该方法的数据采集需求,介绍其使用流程,对度量预防性维修任务经济性的指标参数进行定义,进而给出维修任务可执行区间的确定方法。结果表明：该方法能够从经济可承受性的角度确定出每一项预防性维修任务的可执行区间,为航空器运营人整合实施维修任务提供参考,达到控制优化维修成本的目的。     

民用飞机铰链运动机构维修间隔制定研究

铰链机构是民用飞机中一种被广泛采用的运动机构,其维修间隔的合理制定对于保障飞机安全、经济运营起到重要作用。通过对 MSG-3、适航条款和国家军用标准中相关内容以及维修间隔的影响因素进行详细分析,提出民用飞机铰链机构维修间隔的制定流程,并以某型飞机襟翼铰链机构维修间隔制定为例进行验证。结果表明：本文提出的制定流程可行,为飞机铰链机构的维修间隔和维修大纲的合理制定提供了依据;该铰链机构的偶然损伤和环境损伤的检查门槛值、重复检查间隔均为 5 个日历年,疲劳损伤的检查门槛值为 24 000 fh,重复检查间隔为 14 400 fh。     

基于改进层次分析法的民用飞机修理级别非经济性分析

修理级别分析（level of repair analysis,简称LORA）是飞机保障性分析的一个重要内容,是在设计阶段评估维修对飞机成本影响的一种系统分析方法。在缺乏相关修理级别经济性分析数据的前提下,经过对多种国际主流机型维修大纲和维修手册的研究,分析了飞机修理级别分析的影响因素,建立了层次化的综合评价指标体系,同时又通过专家打分法将定性评价指标进行量化。在此基础上,运用灰色关联分析对修理级别方案进行综合排序,从而选出最优的修理基地。最后通过实例分析说明了本文所提模型的合理性。     

民用飞机直接维修成本分配模型研究

降低民用飞机直接维修成本是提高飞机经济性、增强市场竞争力的重要途径。以民用飞机研制阶段在很大程度上决定其维修成本的高低为背景,在分析相关文献研究成果的基础上,构建可反映民用飞机成本特性的设计参数结构层次图,基于TOPSIS-灰色关联法计算类似机型的相对相似度,进行民用飞机直接维修成本分配;将类似机型典型系统直接维修成本数据输入分配模型进行验证。结果表明：本文模型可较为准确地预测民用飞机系统级直接维修成本,计算结果满足工程要求,可为预测新研机型直接维修成本提供参考。     

考虑不完全维修的劣化系统最优视情维修策略

 针对实际装备维修工程中系统不能"修如新"以及修后工作时间逐渐缩短的情况,基于Gamma过程建立劣化系统的视情维修(CBM)模型,以定期检测的方式获知系统状态。当系统劣化状态超过预定阈值时采取预防性维修,维修后系统恢复至"如新"与"如旧"之间的某一随机状态;经过若干次预防性维修后,当劣化状态再次超过维修阈值时则进行预防性更换;在对系统进行预防性维修或更换之前若发生劣化故障,则进行故障后更换;通过对检测周期和更换策略联合优化,使得系统长期运行费用率最低。最后通过算例说明CBM模型的可行性,并利用Monte Carlo算法仿真验证模型的正确性。     

基于压电传感网络的结构健康监测扫查系统的设计及实验研究(英文)

基于主动Lamb波和压电传感器网络的结构健康监测技术是一种评估航空结构健康状态的有效方法。在实际应用中,监测大型结构需要使用压电传感器网络。扫查这些压电传感器网络中的压电激励-传感通道以达到在线的结构健康监测是非常重要的。基于PXI(PCI eXtensions for Instrumentation)平台,研发了一套基于主动Lamb波和压电传感器网络的集成多通道扫查系统,该系统结构紧凑、便于携带,能大规模自动扫查激励-传感通道并进行损伤评估。提出和讨论了该系统中:4通道PXI程控增益电荷放大器的实现、支持276个激励-传感通道的外部扫查模块和集成的结构健康监测软件的实现。最后,主要讨论了系统在某型无人机碳纤维复合材料机翼盒段上的功能验证实验,包括:压电贴层的设计、激励信号频率的选择方法、损伤成像的功能性测试、系统稳定性测试和载荷对信号的影响。实验结果验证了该系统的稳定性和损伤监测功能。     

A model-based prognostics method for fatigue crack growth in fuselage panels

This paper proposes a model-based prognostics method that couples the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and a new developed linearization method. The proposed prognostics method is developed in the context of fatigue crack propagation in fuselage panels where the model parameters are unknown and the crack propagation is affected by different types of uncertainties. The coupled method is composed of two steps. The first step employs EKF to estimate the unknown model parameters and the current damage state. In the second step, the proposed efficient linearization method is applied to compute analytically the statistical distribution of the damage evolution path in some future time. A numerical case study is implemented to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results show that the coupled EKF-linearization method provides satisfactory results: the EKF algorithm well identifies the model parameters, and the linearization method gives comparable prediction results to Monte Carlo (MC) method while leading to very significant computational cost saving. The proposed prognostics method for fatigue crack growth can be used for developing predictive maintenance strategy for an aircraft fleet, in which case, the computational cost saving is significantly meaningful.     

先进飞机的综合维护诊断技术

综合维护诊断技术的研究对提高飞机的可靠性、安全性和运营效率具有重要的意义,本文概括地对飞机故障诊断技术的应用和发展作了介绍,结合先进大型民航客机,对综合智能维护诊断技术的研究现状和内容进行了分析。最后提出了一种飞机综合智能维护诊断系统的基本结构体系以及未来的发展趋势。     

IEEE Standards for Prognostics and Health Management

Recently operators of complex systems such as aircraft, power plants, and networks have been emphasizing the need for on-line health monitoring for purposes of maximizing operational availability and safety. The discipline of prognostics and health management (PHM) is being formalized to address the information management and prediction requirements for addressing these needs. Herein, we will explore how standards currently under development within the IEEE can be used to support PHM applications. Particular emphasis will be placed on the role of PHM and PHM-related standards with Department of Defense (DOD) automatic test systems-related research.