失效概率矩独立全局灵敏度分析的高效算法

失效概率矩独立全局灵敏度分析对指导可靠性优化至关重要，本文从乘法降维及Edgeworth级数展开的角度提出一种失效概率矩独立全局灵敏度指标分析的高效算法。所提算法通过Edgeworth级数展开将失效概率矩独立全局灵敏度指标的求解转化为输出无条件及条件前四阶整数矩的求解。对于输出的无条件及条件四阶矩的计算，基于乘法降维的思想，本文推导了重复利用计算输出的无条件矩的输入输出样本来计算条件矩以及外层关于输入变量一维积分的计算公式，使得仅需重复利用输出无条件前四阶矩求解产生的积分网格内的数据即可同时求得输出的前四阶条件矩以及外层关于输入变量的一维积分。所提算法大大提高了失效概率矩独立全局灵敏度的分析效率。航空发动机涡轮盘以及汽车前轴的分析结果验证了所提算法的高效性及准确性。     

径向基神经网络在优化导引律中的应用

应用神经网络的非线性的特点,在纯比例导引律的导引下,分析战机的运动轨迹,通过采样取得的一系列载机的控制输入数据,根据追踪导引控制的内在要求(目标视线角速度的绝对值减小并趋于零),设计载机导引控制器的相应的离散输出值,离线训练一个径向基神经网络模块,嵌入到载机控制回路中,作为战机导引的控制输入,实现载机在纯比例导引下的性能优化;仿真结果表明,在节能及省时方面,能达优化纯比例导引律的目的。     

矩独立重要性分析的Kriging代理模型方法

结构重要性分析是结构不确定性分析的重要研究内容之一。作为一种矩独立的重要性测度指标,基于失效概率的重要性测度能够有效地反映输入变量的不确定性对结构失效概率的影响。然而,相比于其他形式的重要性测度,对基于失效概率的矩独立重要性测度进行高效准确的求解仍然存在一定的困难。基于此,结合Kriging代理模型提出了一种高效的矩独立重要性分析的新方法。所提方法首先通过较少的实验设计样本构建能够充分近似真实输入输出响应函数的Kriging代理模型,进而通过数值模拟策略对所构建的Kriging模型进行分析,最终求解得到各个输入变量基于失效概率矩独立重要性测度的主效应和总效应,给出各个输入变量对于失效概率的影响程度排序。相比于现有方法,所提方法由于引入Kriging代理模型极大地降低了对响应函数的计算次数,同时保证了重要性分析的计算精度。两个工程应用实例结果表明了所提方法在计算效率和计算精度方面的优势,体现了所提方法良好的适用性。     

基于方差的相关输入变量重要性测度分析新方法

为了清晰地掌握相关输入变量情况下响应量方差的来源,非常有必要将基于方差的重要性测度( VBIM)分离为相关部分和独立部分.为此,在二阶非线性回归的基础上,提出了一种适用于非线性响应量的相关变量重要性分析的新方法.一个输入变量对响应量方差的相关贡献由该变量与每一个剩余变量两两相关的贡献分量组成,所以又进一步提出了一种概念...     

Testing autonomous systems for deep space exploration

NASA is moving into an era of Increasing spacecraft autonomy. However, before autonomy can be routinely utilized, we must develop techniques for providing assurance that the system will perform correctly in flight. We describe why autonomous systems require advanced verification techniques, and offer some management and technical techniques for addressing the differences. Autonomous goal-driven spacecraft require advances in verification techniques because optimization (e.g., planning and scheduling) algorithms are at the core of much of autonomy. It Is the nature of such algorithms that over much of the input space an intuitively "small" change in the input results in a correspondingly "small" change in the output: This type of response typically leads one to conclude, quite reasonably, that if the two responses are correct, those responses "between" them will probably also be correct. However, there are certain regions in the input space where a "small" change in the input will result in a radically different output: One is not so inclined to conclude that all responses in these transition zones are likely to be correct. We believe, for two reasons, that these transition zones are one place where autonomous systems are likely to fail. First, boundary conditions, often a rich source of faults, are highly exercised in the transition zones, and so increase the likelihood of faults. Second, within the transition zone the algorithm outputs are likely to appear unusual, and, since the outputs of the algorithm become inputs to the remainder of the system, the whole system is probably pushed outside of its nominal usage profile: historically shown to be another good source of faults. We close with a discussion of risk management. Autonomous systems have many well-known management risk factors. Risk management and quality concerns must be pervasive, throughout all team members and the whole life-cycle of the project.     

RBF网络用于边界层转捩中抽吸流优化控制

 在抽吸气流控制边界层转捩问题中 ,将径向基神经网络用于抽吸流速与转捩位置间的函数关系建模 ,构造了网络结构 ,利用一组两通道抽吸流控制转捩的实验数据训练网络 ,获得了优化的网络参数。在此基础上 ,利用训练网络所获得的输入 /输出关系模型求解了最优抽吸流速。结果表明 ,RBF网络可有效地应用于边界层转捩主动控制中的系统函数关系建模。     

Fuzzy logic applications to multisensor-multitarget correlation

A consistent tactical picture requires data fusion technology to combine and propagate information received from diverse objects and usually vague situations. The information may be contained in two types of data; numerical data received from sensor measurements, and linguistic data obtained from human operators and domain experts. In real world situations, the numerical data may be noisy, inconsistent, and incomplete, and the linguistic information is imprecise and vague. To deal with these two types of data simultaneously, fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic provide a methodology to obtain an approximate but consistent tactical picture in a timely manner for very complex or ill-defined engineering problems. A functional paradigm for fuzzy data fusion is presented. It consists of four basic elements: (1) fuzzification of crisp elements, (2) fuzzy knowledge base derived from numerical input/output relations and humans, (3) fuzzy inference mechanism based on a class of fuzzy logic, (4) defuzzification of fuzzy outputs into crisp outputs for use by a plant. For real-time practical systems, the on-line determination of a fuzzy membership function from a given set of crisp inputs is vital. To this end, a methodology for estimating an optimal membership function from crisp input data has been implemented. This is based on the possibility/probability consistency principle as proposed by L.A. Zadeh. A relationship between the fuzzy membership function and the confidence level of statistical input data has been developed and it serves as a design parameter for fuzzification. This technique has been applied to a two-dimensional multisensor-multitarget tracking system. Fuzzy system performance evaluations have been presented. With simulated data in the laboratory environment, the simulation has been performed to evaluate the Mission Avionics Sensor Synergism (MASS) Systems. These results show better performance for the data correlation function using the fuzzy logic techniques.     

多输入模糊控制器及其在飞行控制中的应用

针对输入量之间具有导数关系的三输入模糊控制器进行了理论分析。通过输入空间分区和非线性反模糊算法的引入,推导出了三输入模糊控制器的有关算法,并且总结出它与传统ＰＩＤ控制器之间的等价性及等价条件。飞机纵向运动仿真计算结果表明：三输入模糊控制器与二输入模糊控制器相比较,当初始状态变化较大时,对高度和速度的控制更有效。     

输入-输出非线性反馈线性化方法在硬式空中加油控制系统设计中的应用

 通过对硬式空中加油技术的研究,建立了硬式加油伸缩杆数学模型,结果表明该伸缩杆系统为一个多输入-多输出(MIMO)、耦合、非线性系统。这样解耦控制就成为系统设计的关键。当系统满足可解耦条件时,采用一种基于输入-输出(I/O)非线性反馈线性化的微分几何方法,输出与等效新输入之间呈现线性微分方程关系,选择合适的反馈形式可使伸缩杆的姿态控制解耦。解耦后,伸缩杆就可分解为俯仰和滚转方向两个相互独立的单输入-单输出(SISO)线性子系统。在MATLAB中建立了伸缩杆及其解耦模型,并进行了仿真研究。结果表明该解耦方法很好地消除了系统间的耦合作用,能够满足工程设计的需要。     

平面三连杆欠驱动机械臂谐波函数控制方法

对一种平面三连杆欠驱动机械臂的稳态周期运动进行了理论分析和计算仿真,发现对于确定的欠驱动机器人系统,给系统中的主动关节施加合适的控制,被动关节出现一种"螺旋运动",而且螺旋运动速度与输入振幅和频率有关。在此基础上提出两种欠驱动机械臂位置控制的谐波函数控制方法,通过仿真验证了这种控制方法的有效性。     

The Output Pdf of a Polarity Coincidence Correlation Detector

A general expression is derived for the probability density function of the output of a cross correlator, the inputs of which are assumed to consist of clipped sine waves of similar frequency plus uncorrelated, stationary Gaussian noise. The correlator output is shown to be a piecewise linear function of the random phase difference between the two input processes; hence, the density function for the correlator output is obtained by a relatively simple transformationfrom the probability density function of the random phase difference.     

A Bayesian approach for integrating multilevel priors and data for aerospace system reliability assessment

This paper investigates Bayesian methods for aerospace system reliability analysis using various sources of test data and expert knowledge at both subsystem and system levels. Four scenarios based on available information for the priors and test data of a system and/or subsystems are studied using specific Bayesian inference techniques. This paper proposes the Bayesian melding method for integrating subsystem-level priors with system-level priors for both system- and subsystem-level reliability analysis. System and subsystem reliability outcomes are compared under different scenarios. Computational challenges for posterior inferences using the sophisticated Bayesian melding method are addressed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and adaptive Sampling Importance Re-sampling (SIR) methods. A case study with simulation results illustrates the applications of the proposed methods and provides insights for aerospace system reliability analysis using available multilevel information.     

可靠性全局灵敏度求解的Meta-IS-AK算法

可靠性全局灵敏度（GRS）可以衡量输入变量对结构系统失效概率的平均影响,但目前仍然缺乏具有广泛适应性的高效算法。针对此问题,本文将在元重要抽样和可靠性全局灵敏度的贝叶斯算法基础上建立一种新的高效算法。所提算法首先利用已有的贝叶斯算法,将可靠性全局灵敏度转换成由无条件失效概率及输入变量失效域条件下的概率密度函数（PDF）表达的形式,然后分3步来完成算法的组织。第1步是利用元重要抽样的迭代策略抽取失效域的重要抽样样本;第2步是在已有的元重要抽样法中嵌入自适应Kriging模型,高效计算出无条件失效概率;第3步是利用Metropolis-Hastings准则,将失效域的重要抽样样本转化成为原始密度函数在失效域的样本点,进而同时求得各个输入变量在失效域中的条件概率密度函数,并最终求得可靠性全局灵敏度。由于所提算法充分利用了已有的可靠性全局灵敏度贝叶斯算法的维度独立性、元重要抽样法对隐式多失效域的适应性以及元重要抽样法中嵌入式Kriging模型的高效性,因此所提算法具有广泛的适用范围和较高的效率,该结论得到了算例结果的充分验证。     

基于Laguerre函数的高压力非线性传感器补偿研究

针对高压力传感器线性化输出的结果不准确的现象,研究了具有针对性的Duffing非线性系统。用传感器的输出数据作为补偿器的输入,传感器的输入数据作为补偿器的输出,进行基于Laguerre函数的非线性动态补偿器的设计研究。该方法无需知道传感器的非线性阶数,对于外界干扰有较强的抑制作用,对于时延对象也具有一定的优势。利用该补偿器对传感器进行动态补偿,将补偿结果与阶跃响应输出进行对比,结果表明该非线性模型补偿的有效性。     

中国航空运输生产函数和成本函数的实证研究

从本质上讲,生产函数反映了生产过程中投入要素的数量与产出量之间的技术关系。定义决定中国航空运输产出量的关键要素为航空运输飞机占用资本、飞行员的飞行驾驶劳动和航空油料消耗,利用C—D生产函数,以中国航空运输总周转量表示产出,以运输飞机数量、正驾驶飞行员人数和航空油料消耗量表示投入,利用1990--2005年中国航空运输生产的相关数据资料,进行模型估计。同时,以生产函数为基础构建航空运输的成本函数,并通过生产函数和成本函数分析中国航空运输生产包括规模经济性在内的一些重要特征。     

Hysteresis and the nonlinear equivalent piezoelectric coeffcient of MFCs for actuation

The hysteretic behavior and nonlinearity of the equivalent material coefficient of macro fiber composites (MFC) under staircase input conditions are investigated using the Preisach model. Based on a database of first order reversal curves, formulas are derived to predict the hysteresis of strain output and nonlinearity of the equivalent piezoelectric coefficient of MFCs. Formulae are verified by comparing the predicted strains with the measured strains of three MFC specimens, which are driven by a random sequence of staircase voltage inputs. The coefficients obtained by the formulae and experimentation coincide. Further results indicate that the equivalent piezoelectric strain coefficient depends greatly on the value of drive voltage across the entire input range, and the coefficient is asymmetric across the negative and positive input ranges. Deflection testing of an MFC composite cantilever demonstrates the importance of taking the nonlinearity of the equivalent piezoelectric coefficient into consideration in the application of actuation.     

Hysteresis and the nonlinear equivalent piezoelectric coefficient of MFCs for actuation

The hysteretic behavior and nonlinearity of the equivalent material coefficient of macro fiber composites(MFC) under staircase input conditions are investigated using the Preisach model.Based on a database of first order reversal curves, formulas are derived to predict the hysteresis of strain output and nonlinearity of the equivalent piezoelectric coefficient of MFCs. Formulae are verified by comparing the predicted strains with the measured strains of three MFC specimens,which are driven by a random sequence of staircase voltage inputs. The coefficients obtained by the formulae and experimentation coincide. Further results indicate that the equivalent piezoelectric strain coefficient depends greatly on the value of drive voltage across the entire input range, and the coefficient is asymmetric across the negative and positive input ranges. Deflection testing of an MFC composite cantilever demonstrates the importance of taking the nonlinearity of the equivalent piezoelectric coefficient into consideration in the application of actuation.     

The Performance of Analog Correlators for Several Integrator Functions

A measure of analog correlator performance is considered and interpreted reted as an output signl-to-noise ratio. This quantity is shown to depend on the fourth-order expectation of the input signals and the characteristics of the integrating system. Based on the output signal-to-noise ratio, figures of merit are established for correlators utilizing an ideal low-pass filter, an RC filter, and a finite time integrator. These figures of merit indicate to what degree the correlators reject noise components. For jointly Gaussian inputs, the variation of the output signal-to-noise ratio with the input signal-to-noise ratio is shown to be independent of the integrating system. Finally, a graphical comparison indicates the characteristics of the three systems for several different parameters. This comparison shows that the finite time integrator is superior to the other two systems considered.     

Reliability analysis based on a novel density estimation method for structures with correlations

Estimating the Probability Density Function (PDF) of the performance function is a direct way for structural reliability analysis,and the failure probability can be easily obtained by integration in the failure domain.However,efficiently estimating the PDF is still an urgent problem to be solved.The existing fractional moment based maximum entropy has provided a very advanced method for the PDF estimation,whereas the main shortcoming is that it limits the application of the reliability analysis method only to structures with independent inputs.While in fact,structures with correlated inputs always exist in engineering,thus this paper improves the maximum entropy method,and applies the Unscented Transformation (UT) technique to compute the frac tional moments of the performance function for structures with correlations,which is a very efficient moment estimation method for models with any inputs.The proposed method can precisely estimate the probability distributions of performance functions for structures with correlations.Besides,the number of function evaluations of the proposed method in reliability analysis,which is determined by UT,is really small.Several examples are employed to illustrate the accuracy and advantages of the proposed method.     

New results in importance sampling [of false alarm statistics]

Importance sampling is a technique which can significantly reduce the number of Monte Carlos necessary to accurately estimate the probability of low-probability of occurrence events (e.g., the probability of false alarm P_F associated with a given detection scheme). A new technique called the Chernoff Importance Sampling Method is introduced. It is shown that the number of required Monte Carlos can be reduced by a factor of a Chernoff-like bound on P _F. In addition, techniques for choosing the multiplying factor of the distorted variance method (the most common method used in importance sampling) are presented