Collision probability and spacecraft disposition in the geostationary orbit

Since 1963 approximately 300 satellites have been launched into the geostationary orbit, followed possibly by another additional 200 satellites up to the year 2000. Ground surveillance with radar and optical sensors able to detect objects of 1 m minimum size in the geostationary ring indicates a total population of several hundred which includes active and defunct satellites and spent upper stages. In addition, a population of untrackable objects is conjectured, whose size can only be estimated, possibly several thousand of smaller objects.

The purpose of this paper is to review the long-term evolution of orbits in the geostationary ring and at higher altitude, the collision probabilities and disposition options.

The major perturbations are considered including attitude-orbit cross-coupling effects which could cause secular orbit perturbations.

Collision probabilities for current and projected populations are reviewed considering different approaches, such as a deterministic treatment of the uncontrolled population and a stochastic modeling for the controlled satellites. Also, colocation, that is sharing of the same longitude slot by several operational satellites, is a potential source for collision, if no preventive measures are taken.

As regards spacecraft disposition options, the conclusion is that reorbiting is currently the only practical measure to safeguard the geostationary orbit. In this recommended procedure the defunct satellites are inserted into a so-called graveyard orbit, located suffieciently high above the geostationary orbit.