The impact of alternative mission models on the future orbital debris environment

In reviewing discussions of future directions for space activity, it becomes obvious that there are a large number of groups formulating a wide diversity of plans for the future use of space. These plan alternatives are being made to account for user needs, technology development constraints, economic constraints, and launch support, and each of the plans will have direct or indirect effects on the orbital debris environment in terms of mass to orbit, deposition of operational debris, and control of accidental breakups. Thus it is important to develop the ability to project future debris states for a range of possible space traffic scenarios. The impact that these possible traffic environments would have on space operations forms the basis for studies of alternative options for the usage of space. In this paper, the effects on the orbital debris environment of a base-line mission model and two alternatives are investigated, using a numerical debris environment simulation code under development at JSC.