多阶段任务系统通用可靠性仿真模型

归纳了当前多阶段任务系统(PMS,Phased Mission Systems)可靠性建模的基本假设,指出了解析模型描述和求解能力的不足以及仿真模型存在的难以转换的缺点.应用着色Petri网(CPN,Colored Petri Net) Tools建立PMS的多层通用仿真模型:顶层控制模型将PMS各阶段的故障树参数化,作为CPN通用仿真模型的输入;单阶段处理模型根据顶层控制模型的输入判别该阶段顶事件是否发生;底事件处理模型通过比较随机数和故障发生概率的大小产生故障.通用仿真模型可以保持模型结构的稳定,同时又简化了仿真模型的生成.案例对比了CPN仿真模型与二元决策图(BDD,Binary Decision Diagrams)算法的可靠性计算结果,证明了模型的正确性;具有动态变化参数的PMS仿真则说明了模型的适用性.

General model for PMS reliability

The hypothesis of reliability model of phased mission systems (PMS) was summed up, and then the shortcoming was also presented that analytical model of PMS is difficult to describe and calculate the complex system, at the same time the simulation model is also hard to be set up. By using the colored Petri net(CPN) Tools, the general model for PMS reliability was set up. The model includes 3 levels: the top control model, which turns the fault trees of PMS into the input parameters of CPN model; the single phase model, whose output is the state of the top event by the input parameters of the top control model; the bottom event model, which produces fault events by comparing rand number to the probability of fault. The general simulation model is robust which can keep the stable model structure for different PMS and the modeling process. The case contrasts the results of the general CPN model with analytical solution, which shows the CPN model is correct and more efficient.