利用WW3模式实现中国海击水概率数值预报

海浪对掠海飞行有着重要影响，以T639预报风场驱动WW3（WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ）海浪模式，对2013年3月发生在中国海的一次冷空气海浪场进行数值模拟.结合飞行高度探测的标准差、海浪浪高的标准差，进一步实现了击水概率的数值预报，为低空飞行器的航迹规划提供科学依据.主要计算了5 m高度、10 m高度、15 m高度的击水概率，并对比不同飞行高度击水概率的差异.结果表明，以T639预报风场驱动WW3海浪模式，可以较好地预报中国海海浪场、击水概率场.在冷空气影响下，中国海的击水概率出现明显增幅.飞行高度低于10 m时，海浪会对掠海飞行器的安全造成很大威胁.

Forecasting of the China Sea ditching probability using WW3 wave model

The ocean wave has a significant influence on the ditching probability. Comprehensively considering the standard deviation of the flying height of the sea-skimming aircraft, standard deviation of the ocean wave, the numerical forecasting of the ditching probability was developed, by using WW3 (WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ) wave model and T639 forecasting wind field data. The results provide a scientific reference for the route planning of sea-skimming aircraft. The ditching probabilities of 5 meters, 10 meters and 15 meters above the sea surface were calculated and contrasted. Results show that the WW3 wave model can forecast the China Sea wave field and ditching probability properly, with T639 forecasting wind field data as the driving field. Under the influence of the cold air, the China Sea ditching probability increases significantly. The ocean wave would cause a great threat to the security of sea-skimming aircraft when the flying height is below 10 meters.