基于方差的保障时间不确定性分析

装备的保障过程由于受到保障活动参数的影响存在着较大的不确定性.针对保障过程的不确定性问题，建立了基于方差的保障活动不确定性重要度作为保障过程全局敏感性分析指标；根据保障过程工期的GERT（Graphic Evaluation and Review Technique）模型，设计了一种基于方差的保障时间不确定分析方法来计算保障活动的时间不确定性重要度，并对该方法进行解析求解，给出了具体步骤.最后，将舰载机航空保障作为案例，验证了方法的有效性.

Variance-based uncertainty analysis methods of logistic support time

Uncertainty in logistics support process is present under the influence of support activities parameters. In this work, global sensitivity indicator was introduced which looks at the influence of input uncertainty on the entire output distribution without reference to a specific moment of the output and which can be defined also in the presence of correlations among the parameters. Variance-based uncertainty analysis method with the graphic evaluation and review technique(GERT) model of logistic support process duration was designed. And then, an analytic algorithm to calculate the uncertainty analysis was designed with GERT. At last, the analytic algorithm was used to analysis the aircraft support activities uncertainty analysis. Given the limited support resources, the uncertainty analytic algorithm is helpful for a decision maker to identify the most important input parameters that control the uncertainty in the model output.