一种适用于航路改变情况的冲突概率预测算法

针对如何有效地预测飞行中将发生的冲突,提出了适用于航路改变情况下的冲突预测算法.基于飞机实际飞行轨迹的不确定性,计算冲突发生的概率来预测冲突发生的可能性.改进了直线航路预测算法,充分利用ADS-B(广播式自动相关监视)所提供的航路意图信息,获得飞机航路改变点及航路偏转角,依此进行相应的矩阵变换来计算航路改变后的误差协方差矩阵,并利用有效的近似方法对继续累加的误差表示进行简化,进而实现冲突发生概率的计算.运用Monte-Carlo方法进行仿真,结果验证了其较好的准确性,与直线航路算法的比较表明了其在更复杂环境下具有的适用性和有效性.

Algorithm of conflict probability prediction for the case of trajectory change

An algorithm of conflict prediction available for the condition of trajectory change was put forward concerning the problem of how to detect the latent conflict between airplanes in flight efficiently.It calculates the conflict probability to realize the conflict prediction due to the uncertainty of actual trajectory positions.Ameliorated from the prediction algorithm which is only applicable for flight along straight-line fairway,it made the best use of intent information provided by ADS-B to compute the trajectory change point and trajectory change angle,calculated the error covariance matrix of the changed trajectory by matrix transforming,and simplified the expression of the increased error by approximating all angle conditions into two entries: small change angle and huge change angle to ultimately get the conflict probability.The monte-carlo simulation results testify the veracity and precision of the algorithm,the comparison with the algorithm for straight-line fairway indicates the adaptability to more complicated environments.