军航无人机与民航航班侧向碰撞风险评估

近年来无人机(UAV)已经成为新型作战力量。为解决军航UAV与民航航班之间的飞行冲突，确保飞行安全，对经典EVENT模型进行改进，提出适用于UAV的碰撞风险模型。着重研究了导航方式、人为因素、高空风对于UAV飞行的影响，并构建了相应的位置偏差模型。首先，利用蒙特卡罗法求解军航UAV与民航航班之间侧向间隔丢失的频率；其次，利用MATLAB进行算例仿真，验证模型的有效性，并得出了侧向碰撞概率随参数变化的关系；最后，通过计算不同安全间隔下的碰撞风险，对空域使用提出建议。 

Risk assessment of lateral collision between military UAV and civil aviation flight

In recent years, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) has become a new combat force. In order to solve the flight conflict between military UAV and civil aviation and ensure flight safety, this paper improves the classic EVENT model and proposes a collision risk model suitable for UAV. The influence of navigation mode, human factors and high-altitude wind on UAV flight is emphatically studied, and the corresponding position deviation model is constructed. Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the loss frequency of lateral interval between military UAV and civil aviation flight. MATLAB is used for example simulation to verify the effectiveness of the model, and the relationship between the lateral collision probability and the parameters is obtained. By calculating the collision risk at different safety intervals, some suggestions on the use of airspace are put forward.