基于风险预测的飞行安全操纵空间构建方法

提高驾驶员在复杂气象环境和系统故障等条件下的情景感知能力是保障飞行安全的有力措施。基于人-机-环动力学仿真，综合计算操纵指令下预测时间段内多个飞行安全参数风险变化趋势，通过飞行安全参数风险度的叠加，得到该飞行情形下的飞行安全谱和飞行风险概率。通过并行仿真计算整个操纵空间内的飞行风险拓扑云图，构建飞行安全操纵空间，引导驾驶员正确操纵。分析了结冰环境下和舵面卡阻故障模式下的飞行安全操纵空间、事故机理和主要敏感参数。仿真结果表明，外部环境突变或突发系统故障可导致飞行安全操纵空间缩减甚至畸变。飞行安全操纵空间的提出可为驾驶员在复杂条件下的安全操纵提供直观全面的参考，提高驾驶员的情景感知能力，也可为事故演化提供可视化的分析方法。

Construction method of flight safety manipulation space based on risk prediction

Improving the pilot's situational awareness is an effective measure to ensure flight safety under the complex meteorological environment and system failure conditions. Based on the complex dynamics of pilot-vehicle-environment simulation, the risk variation trend of multiple flight safety parameters is predicted under a certain manipulation command, and the flight safety spectrum and flight risk probability for the flight condition are obtained by the superposition of the flight safety parameters' risk degrees. Through the parallel simulation, the flight risk topology contour in the whole operation space is calculated, and the flight safety manipulation space is constructed to guide the pilot to manipulate correctly. The flight safety operation space, the accident mechanism and the main sensitive parameters are analyzed under the icing environment and rudder surface jammed conditions. The simulation results show that the external environment mutation or sudden system failure can lead to safety manipulation space reduction or even distortion. The proposal of safety manipulation space under the complex conditions could not only provide an intuitive and comprehensive reference to improve the pilot's situational awareness, but also provide a visual analytical method for the accident evolution.