大气层外拦截弹建模与攻防效能分析

基于跨大气层反导拦截的各阶段流程，首先完成了某型拦截弹的动力学建模，然后利用预测拦截点（PIP）导引以及射表插值的思想，设计了针对大气层外中远程弹道类目标的中段拦截制导方法。在此基础上，研究了不同情形下拦截弹针对弹道导弹的部署区域，发射区段与拦截区段，以及固定拦截阵地的保护范围，验证了大气层外拦截导引方法的有效性。考虑到弹道导弹可能采取的突防措施，包括机动变轨、电子干扰以及红外诱饵掩护等手段，通过设计大样本仿真试验，分析进攻弹所采取的不同措施带来的突防效能。对于能够拦截常规弹道的拦截弹部署点，进攻弹可以通过机动变轨和释放诱饵等策略分阶段起到干扰作用，将突防概率提高到70%以上。

Exo-atmospheric interceptor modeling and penetration and defense effectiveness analysis

Based on the procedure of trans-atmospheric missile defense interception in each phase, this paper has firstly established a dynamic model for exo-atmospheric interceptor. Then according to the theory of predicted intercepting point (PIP) guidance and firing table interpolation, a method of exo-atmospheric midcourse guidance has been presented to intercept intermediate-range and long-range ballistic target. On this basis, this paper has studied the interceptor deployment zones and the firing/intercept sections according to multiple target trajectories, and the protective zone of one fixed interceptor launch position. With this approach, the effectiveness of the exo-atmospheric interception guidance method has been tested. Finally, considering the penetration measures that ballistic missile may have taken, including maneuver orbital transfer, electronic jamming, infrared bait, etc., the penetration effectiveness that achieved from different measures employed by offensive missile has been analyzed through large sample simulations. For those interceptor deployment positions where the general ballistic target can be hit, the penetration probability of the warhead can be raised up to over 70% with the interference strategies such as maneuver orbital transfer and bait release applied in different phases.