基于Wiener过程的发动机多阶段剩余寿命预测

针对现阶段发动机的寿命预测研究没有考虑到非线性与多阶段的问题，提出了基于多阶段非线性Wiener过程的航空发动机实时剩余寿命预测的方法。该方法融合了同类型发动机的历史性能退化监测数据与个体发动机的实时监测数据。首先，考虑了发动机性能退化非线性的特点，并采用多阶段Wiener过程建立发动机的性能退化模型。然后，根据发动机的历史性能监测数据，利用极大似然估计和一维搜索方法进行参数先验分布的估计。再次，在先验分布和个体发动机的退化数据的基础上，用贝叶斯方法对参数分布更新。最后，得到个体发动机剩余寿命的实时预测值。通过实例验证本文方法预测的准确性。 

Multi-phase residual life prediction of engines based on Wiener process

Due to the fact that the research on the life prediction of the engine does not take into account both the nonlinearity and the multi-stage problems at the present stage, a method for forecasting the residual life of aeroengines in real time based on multi-phase nonlinear Wiener process is proposed.This method can effectively fuse the historical performance degradation monitoring data of the same type of aeroengines with the real-time monitoring data of the individual aeroengine.Firstly,the nonlinearity of performance degradation is considered,and the multi-stage Wiener process was used to establish the performance degradation model of en-gine.Secondly,according to the historical performance monitoring data of the aeroengines,the prior distribu-tion of parameters is estimated by using maximum likelihood estimation and one-dimensional search method. Thirdly,according to the real-time performance degradation data of individual aeroengine and the prior distri-bution,the Bayesian method is used to update the model parameters.Finally,the real-time predicted values of the residual life of the individual aeroengine are obtained.By the test of the actual data, the results show that the proposed method is accurate.