利用非等距灰色理论方法判定失效机理一致性

针对加速失效机理一致性判定中存在以下问题，基于数据处理和试验观察的方法需要加速试验数据和基于灰色理论的方法需要预试验数据等间距且预测精度不高，提出了一种基于非等距型灰色理论模型的失效机理一致性判定方法.该方法利用非等距的预试验数据，将非等距GM（1，1）模型和等维新息模型相结合，得出模型的残差，找出预试验数据的趋势改变点.通过对比试验，得出此方法的拟合精度和预测精度较高，进一步拓广了GM（1，1）模型在失效机理一致性判定上的应用范围.通过在光电编码器和加速度计中的应用案例，验证了该方法的有效性.

Identification method of failure mechanism consistency by non-equidistance grey theory model

To deal with the problems of accelerated failure mechanism consistency identification in the methods based on data processing and experimental observation need the accelerated testing data and the method based on grey theory needs that the data of pre-test is equidistant as well as the prediction accuracy is not high, a new method of failure mechanism consistency identification based on non-equidistance grey theory model was proposed. The method combined the non-equidistance GM (1, 1) with equal dimension model by the non-equidistance pre-test data, got the residual, and found the change point of trend of data from pre-test. According to the contrast test, the method of fitting precision and prediction precision was higher, and the application scope of GM (1, 1) model in the failure mechanism consistency identification was enlarged. Finally, the effectiveness of the method was validated by a practical example on photoelectric encoder and accelerometer.