卫星多源信息贝叶斯融合方法研究

卫星在研制设计过程中存在大量不确定性因素，对卫星的可靠性及性能造成直接影响。如何实现复杂卫星系统的不确定性建模是目前亟需解决的问题，而多源分布信息融合是不确定性建模的关键。此外，在实际系统中，由于时间、成本的约束很难直接获得系统的分布信息。针对在系统信息缺失情况下如何实现卫星系统的多源信息融合问题，提出多层系统结构模块化与系统信息合成的方法。通过系统结构的分解，将已知的低层级信息与高层级信息进行融合，进而采用诱导推断的方式使得系统节点从“无信息”至“有信息”。通过某卫星姿态控制系统算例分析得到，提出的方法能充分利用系统结构关系，有效融合并更新各个组件、子系统的分布信息，解决了系统信息缺失的问题，为进一步开展卫星系统不确定性设计优化提供参考。

Research on satellite multi source information Bayesian melding method

There is a large amount of uncertainty in the development and operation of satellites, which directly affects the satellite performance and lifetime. How to realize the uncertainty modeling is an urgent problem, and the multi-source information integration is the key to uncertainty modeling. In addition, it is difficult to obtain the distribution information of the system directly due to the constraints of time and cost. To realize the multi-source information integration of satellite systems with a lack of information, the methods of the multi level system structure modulization and the system information synthesization were put forward based on the traditional Bayesian melding method. Through the system structure decomposition, the information of lower levels was merged into the higher levels. Then with the induction inference method, the system node could get new information instead of non-information. Through a case study of a satellite attitude control system, the proposed method can make full use of the system structure relationship, effectively integrate and update the distribution information of each component and subsystem. The problem of missing system information is solved, which will provide reference for further development of the satellite system uncertainty design and optimization.